Improving strategic decision-making with simulation based decision support systems

Combating climate change is one of the key tasks of humanity in the 21st century. One of the leading causes is carbon dioxide emissions due to usage of fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources should be used instead of relying on oil, gas, and coal. In Finland a significant amount of energy is produced using wood. The usage of wood chips is expected to increase in the future significantly, over 60 %. The aim of this research is to improve understanding over the costs of wood chip supply chains. This is conducted by utilizing simulation as the main research method. The simulation model utilizes both agent-based modelling and discrete event simulation to imitate the wood chip supply chain. This thesis concentrates on the usage of simulation based decision support systems in strategic decision-making. The simulation model is part of a decision support system, which connects the simulation model to databases but also provides a graphical user interface for the decisionmaker. The main analysis conducted with the decision support system concentrates on comparing a traditional supply chain to a supply chain utilizing specialized containers. According to the analysis, the container supply chain is able to have smaller costs than the traditional supply chain. Also, a container supply chain can be more easily scaled up due to faster emptying operations. Initially the container operations would only supply part of the fuel needs of a power plant and it would complement the current supply chain. The model can be expanded to include intermodal supply chains as due to increased demand in the future there is not enough wood chips located close to current and future power plants.

Painevesityyppisen ydinvoimalaitoksen sekundääripiirin mallinnus

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kehittää entistä tarkempi ja luotettavampi työkalu Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen ensimmäisen reaktoriyksikön sekundääripiirin 50-linjan stationääritilan toiminnan arviointiin. Toisena tavoitteena oli kartoittaa ja raportoida mallintamiseen käytetyn SOLVO-ohjelman kehitysmahdollisuuksia. Tutkimusten perusteella kehitettiin testatusti toimiva prosessimalli, joka dokumentoitiin ja validoitiin yksityiskohtaisesti. Tulevaisuudessa tapahtuvaa kehitystyötä, ja mallin käyttöä varten kehitettiin lisäksi Excel-pohjainen työkalu, jonka avulla SOLVO:n ja Excelin välinen integraatio voidaan myöhemmin julkaistavassa SOLVO:n versiossa viedä nykyistä pidemmälle. Mallintamistyön ohella tutkimuksen aikana selvitettiin olennaisimmat SOLVO:n erityispiirteet ja vahvuudet sekä kartoitettiin sen käyttöön liittyvät kehitystarpeet. Tärkeimpänä kehitysehdotuksena nousi esiin yksittäisissä komponenteissa suoritetun laskennan läpinäkyvyyden parantaminen. Seuraavassa kehitysvaiheessa myös komponenttikohtaiset laskentayhtälöt olisi suositeltavaa asettaa avoimiksi käyttäjäkohtaisille muutoksille. Työn aikana saavutettiin myös muita merkittäviä tuloksia, jotka liittyivät pääosin rinnak-kaisten 10- ja 50-linjojen välisiin yhteyksiin. Linjojen välisiä vaikutuksia analysoitaessa huomattiin niiden olevan olennaisessa asemassa erityisesti sarja-ajon aikana. Mikäli mallilla halutaan kuvata sekä sarja- että rinnanajoa, sen on käsitettävä molemmat linjat ja kaikki niihin liittyvät komponentit. Edellä mainitun lisäksi mallipohjaisen tarkastelun tuloksena tehtiin havaintoja, joiden perusteella nykyistä prosessia voidaan edelleen kehittää. Näistä havainnoista tärkeimpänä merivesipumppujen optimaalisen säätölämpötilan todettiin asettuvan 4,5 – 4,6 °C välille. Toinen huomio liittyi matalapaineturbiinien ulosvirtaushäviöihin, joihin hukataan juoksusta riippuen keskimäärin noin 10 kJ/kg enemmän entalpiaa kuin parhaassa mahdollisessa tapauksessa. Validoinnin yhteydessä havaituista pienistä poikkeamista huolimatta kehitetty malli vastaa hyvin laitokselta saatuja mittaustuloksia sekä muita samassa yhteydessä käytettyjä luotet-tavuuden arviointikriteerejä.

Simulation and optimization tools in paper machine concept design

The last decade has shown that the global paper industry needs new processes and products in order to reassert its position in the industry. As the paper markets in Western Europe and North America have stabilized, the competition has tightened. Along with the development of more cost-effective processes and products, new process design methods are also required to break the old molds and create new ideas. This thesis discusses the development of a process design methodology based on simulation and optimization methods. A bi-level optimization problem and a solution procedure for it are formulated and illustrated. Computational models and simulation are used to illustrate the phenomena inside a real process and mathematical optimization is exploited to find out the best process structures and control principles for the process. Dynamic process models are used inside the bi-level optimization problem, which is assumed to be dynamic and multiobjective due to the nature of papermaking processes. The numerical experiments show that the bi-level optimization approach is useful for different kinds of problems related to process design and optimization. Here, the design methodology is applied to a constrained process area of a papermaking line. However, the same methodology is applicable to all types of industrial processes, e.g., the design of biorefiners, because the methodology is totally generalized and can be easily modified.

Simulation of structural stress history based on dynamic analysis

Modern machine structures are often fabricated by welding. From a fatigue point of view, the structural details and especially, the welded details are the most prone to fatigue damage and failure. Design against fatigue requires information on the fatigue resistance of a structure’s critical details and the stress loads that act on each detail. Even though, dynamic simulation of flexible bodies is already current method for analyzing structures, obtaining the stress history of a structural detail during dynamic simulation is a challenging task; especially when the detail has a complex geometry. In particular, analyzing the stress history of every structural detail within a single finite element model can be overwhelming since the amount of nodal degrees of freedom needed in the model may require an impractical amount of computational effort. The purpose of computer simulation is to reduce amount of prototypes and speed up the product development process. Also, to take operator influence into account, real time models, i.e. simplified and computationally efficient models are required. This in turn, requires stress computation to be efficient if it will be performed during dynamic simulation. The research looks back at the theoretical background of multibody dynamic simulation and finite element method to find suitable parts to form a new approach for efficient stress calculation. This study proposes that, the problem of stress calculation during dynamic simulation can be greatly simplified by using a combination of floating frame of reference formulation with modal superposition and a sub-modeling approach. In practice, the proposed approach can be used to efficiently generate the relevant fatigue assessment stress history for a structural detail during or after dynamic simulation. In this work numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the proposed approach in practice. The results show that approach is applicable and can be used as proposed.

Qualitative Characteristics and Quantitative Measures of Solution's Reliability in Discrete Optimization: Traditional Analytical Approaches, Innovative Computational Methods and Applicability

The purpose of this thesis is twofold. The first and major part is devoted to sensitivity analysis of various discrete optimization problems while the second part addresses methods applied for calculating measures of solution stability and solving multicriteria discrete optimization problems. Despite numerous approaches to stability analysis of discrete optimization problems two major directions can be single out: quantitative and qualitative. Qualitative sensitivity analysis is conducted for multicriteria discrete optimization problems with minisum, minimax and minimin partial criteria. The main results obtained here are necessary and sufficient conditions for different stability types of optimal solutions (or a set of optimal solutions) of the considered problems. Within the framework of quantitative direction various measures of solution stability are investigated. A formula for a quantitative characteristic called stability radius is obtained for the generalized equilibrium situation invariant to changes of game parameters in the case of the H¨older metric. Quality of the problem solution can also be described in terms of robustness analysis. In this work the concepts of accuracy and robustness tolerances are presented for a strategic game with a finite number of players where initial coefficients (costs) of linear payoff functions are subject to perturbations. Investigation of stability radius also aims to devise methods for its calculation. A new metaheuristic approach is derived for calculation of stability radius of an optimal solution to the shortest path problem. The main advantage of the developed method is that it can be potentially applicable for calculating stability radii of NP-hard problems. The last chapter of the thesis focuses on deriving innovative methods based on interactive optimization approach for solving multicriteria combinatorial optimization problems. The key idea of the proposed approach is to utilize a parameterized achievement scalarizing function for solution calculation and to direct interactive procedure by changing weighting coefficients of this function. In order to illustrate the introduced ideas a decision making process is simulated for three objective median location problem. The concepts, models, and ideas collected and analyzed in this thesis create a good and relevant grounds for developing more complicated and integrated models of postoptimal analysis and solving the most computationally challenging problems related to it.

Theoretical Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Spectral Radiative Properties of Combustion Gases in Oxy/Air-Fired Combustion Systems

Energy efficiency is one of the major objectives which should be achieved in order to implement the limited energy resources of the world in a sustainable way. Since radiative heat transfer is the dominant heat transfer mechanism in most of fossil fuel combustion systems, more accurate insight and models may cause improvement in the energy efficiency of the new designed combustion systems. The radiative properties of combustion gases are highly wavelength dependent. Better models for calculating the radiative properties of combustion gases are highly required in the modeling of large scale industrial combustion systems. With detailed knowledge of spectral radiative properties of gases, the modeling of combustion processes in the different applications can be more accurate. In order to propose a new method for effective non gray modeling of radiative heat transfer in combustion systems, different models for the spectral properties of gases including SNBM, EWBM, and WSGGM have been studied in this research. Using this detailed analysis of different approaches, the thesis presents new methods for gray and non gray radiative heat transfer modeling in homogeneous and inhomogeneous H2O–CO2 mixtures at atmospheric pressure. The proposed method is able to support the modeling of a wide range of combustion systems including the oxy-fired combustion scenario. The new methods are based on implementing some pre-obtained correlations for the total emissivity and band absorption coefficient of H2O–CO2 mixtures in different temperatures, gas compositions, and optical path lengths. They can be easily used within any commercial CFD software for radiative heat transfer modeling resulting in more accurate, simple, and fast calculations. The new methods were successfully used in CFD modeling by applying them to industrial scale backpass channel under oxy-fired conditions. The developed approaches are more accurate compared with other methods; moreover, they can provide complete explanation and detailed analysis of the radiation heat transfer in different systems under different combustion conditions. The methods were verified by applying them to some benchmarks, and they showed a good level of accuracy and computational speed compared to other methods. Furthermore, the implementation of the suggested banded approach in CFD software is very easy and straightforward.

Multibody Simulation Model of the Roller Test Rig

Multibody simulation model of the roller test rig is presented in this work. The roller test rig consists of a paper machine’s tube roll supported with a hard bearing type balancing machine. The simulation model includes non-idealities that are measured from the physical structure. These non-idealities are the shell thickness variation of the roll and roundness errors of the shafts of the roll. These kinds of non-idealities are harmful since they can cause subharmonic resonances of the rotor system. In this case, the natural vibration mode of the rotor is excited when the rotation speed is a fraction of the natural frequency of the system. With the simulation model, the half critical resonance is studied in detail and a sensitivity analysis is performed by simulating several analyses with slightly different input parameters. The model is verified by comparing the simulation results with those obtained by measuring the real structure. Comparison shows that good accuracy is achieved, since equivalent responses are achieved within the error limit of the input parameters.

Experimental and discrete element simulation studies of bell-less charging of blast furnace

This thesis presents an experimental study and numerical study, based on the discrete element method (DEM), of bell-less charging in the blast furnace. The numerical models are based on the microscopic interaction between the particles in the blast furnace charging process. The emphasis is put on model validation, investigating several phenomena in the charging process, and on finding factors that influence the results. The study considers and simulates size segregation in the hopper discharging process, particle flow and behavior on the chute, which is the key equipment in the charging system, using mono-size spherical particles, multi-size spheres and nonspherical particles. The behavior of the particles at the burden surface and pellet percolation into a coke layer is also studied. Small-scale experiments are used to validate the DEM models.

A Soft Contact Collision Method For Real-Time Simulation of Triangularized Geometries in Multibody Dynamics

When modeling machines in their natural working environment collisions become a very important feature in terms of simulation accuracy. By expanding the simulation to include the operation environment, the need for a general collision model that is able to handle a wide variety of cases has become central in the development of simulation environments. With the addition of the operating environment the challenges for the collision modeling method also change. More simultaneous contacts with more objects occur in more complicated situations. This means that the real-time requirement becomes more difficult to meet. Common problems in current collision modeling methods include for example dependency on the geometry shape or mesh density, calculation need increasing exponentially in respect to the number of contacts, the lack of a proper friction model and failures due to certain configurations like closed kinematic loops. All these problems mean that the current modeling methods will fail in certain situations. A method that would not fail in any situation is not very realistic but improvements can be made over the current methods.

On Energy Efficient Computing Platforms

In accordance with the Moore's law, the increasing number of on-chip integrated transistors has enabled modern computing platforms with not only higher processing power but also more affordable prices. As a result, these platforms, including portable devices, work stations and data centres, are becoming an inevitable part of the human society. However, with the demand for portability and raising cost of power, energy efficiency has emerged to be a major concern for modern computing platforms. As the complexity of on-chip systems increases, Network-on-Chip (NoC) has been proved as an efficient communication architecture which can further improve system performances and scalability while reducing the design cost. Therefore, in this thesis, we study and propose energy optimization approaches based on NoC architecture, with special focuses on the following aspects. As the architectural trend of future computing platforms, 3D systems have many bene ts including higher integration density, smaller footprint, heterogeneous integration, etc. Moreover, 3D technology can signi cantly improve the network communication and effectively avoid long wirings, and therefore, provide higher system performance and energy efficiency. With the dynamic nature of on-chip communication in large scale NoC based systems, run-time system optimization is of crucial importance in order to achieve higher system reliability and essentially energy efficiency. In this thesis, we propose an agent based system design approach where agents are on-chip components which monitor and control system parameters such as supply voltage, operating frequency, etc. With this approach, we have analysed the implementation alternatives for dynamic voltage and frequency scaling and power gating techniques at different granularity, which reduce both dynamic and leakage energy consumption. Topologies, being one of the key factors for NoCs, are also explored for energy saving purpose. A Honeycomb NoC architecture is proposed in this thesis with turn-model based deadlock-free routing algorithms. Our analysis and simulation based evaluation show that Honeycomb NoCs outperform their Mesh based counterparts in terms of network cost, system performance as well as energy efficiency.

Reusable formal architectures for networked systems

Today's networked systems are becoming increasingly complex and diverse. The current simulation and runtime verification techniques do not provide support for developing such systems efficiently; moreover, the reliability of the simulated/verified systems is not thoroughly ensured. To address these challenges, the use of formal techniques to reason about network system development is growing, while at the same time, the mathematical background necessary for using formal techniques is a barrier for network designers to efficiently employ them. Thus, these techniques are not vastly used for developing networked systems. The objective of this thesis is to propose formal approaches for the development of reliable networked systems, by taking efficiency into account. With respect to reliability, we propose the architectural development of correct-by-construction networked system models. With respect to efficiency, we propose reusable network architectures as well as network development. At the core of our development methodology, we employ the abstraction and refinement techniques for the development and analysis of networked systems. We evaluate our proposal by employing the proposed architectures to a pervasive class of dynamic networks, i.e., wireless sensor network architectures as well as to a pervasive class of static networks, i.e., network-on-chip architectures. The ultimate goal of our research is to put forward the idea of building libraries of pre-proved rules for the efficient modelling, development, and analysis of networked systems. We take into account both qualitative and quantitative analysis of networks via varied formal tool support, using a theorem prover the Rodin platform and a statistical model checker the SMC-Uppaal.