Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

Rapid detection of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis using the mycobacteria growth indicator tube (MGIT) system

The emergence of multidrug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis has increased the need for rapid drug susceptibility tests, which are needed for adequate patient treatment. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the mycobacteria growth indicator tube (MGIT) system to detect multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis strains. The MGIT system was compared with two standard methods (proportion and resistance ratio methods). One hundred clinical M. tuberculosis isolates [25 susceptible to isoniazid (INH) and rifampicin (RIF), 20 resistant to INH, 30 resistant to INH-RIF, and 25 resistant to INH-RIF and other drugs] obtained in the State of São Paulo were tested for INH and RIF susceptibility. Full agreement among the tests was found for all sensitive and all INH-resistant strains. For RIF-resistant strains results among the tests agreed for 53 (96.4%) of 55 isolates. Results were obtained within 6 days (range, 5 to 8 days), 28 days and 12 days when using MGIT, the proportion method and the resistance ratio methods, respectively. The MGIT system presented an overall agreement of 96% when compared with two standard methods. These data show that the MGIT system is rapid, sensitive and efficient for the early detection of multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis.

Usefulness of a rapid immunometric assay for intraoperative parathyroid hormone measurements

Intraoperative parathyroid hormone (IO-PTH) measurements have been proposed to improve operative success rates in primary, secondary and tertiary hyperparathyroidism (PHP, SHP and THP). Thirty-one patients requiring parathyroidectomy were evaluated retrospectively from June 2000 to January 2002. Sixteen had PHP, 7 SHP and 8 THP. Serum samples were taken at times 0 (before resection), 10, 20 and 30 min after resection of each abnormal parathyroid gland. Samples from 28 patients were frozen at -70ºC for subsequent tests, whereas samples from three patients were tested while surgery was being performed. IO-PTH was measured using the Elecsys immunochemiluminometric assay (Roche, Mannheim, Germany). The time necessary to perform the assay was 9 min. All samples had a second measurement taken by a conventional immunofluorimetric method. We considered as cured patients who presented normocalcemia in PHP and THP, and normal levels of PTH in SHP one month after surgery and who remained in this condition throughout the follow-up of 1 to 20 months. When rapid PTH assay was compared with a routine immunofluorimetric assay, excellent correlation was observed (r = 0.959, P < 0.0001). IO-PTH measurement showed a rapid average decline of 78.8% in PTH 10 min after adenoma resection in PHP and all patients were cured. SHP patients had an average IO-PTH decrease of 89% 30 min after total parathyroidectomy and cure was observed in 85.7%. THP showed an average IO-PTH decrease of 91.9%, and cure was obtained in 87.5% of patients. IO-PTH can be a useful tool that might improve the rate of successful treatment of PHP, SHP and THP.

An improved HPLC method for the quantitation of 6-mercaptopurine and its metabolites in red blood cells

A procedure is described for the rapid determination of the intra-erythrocyte concentration of 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP) and its metabolites, 6-thioguanine nucleotides (6-TGN) and 6-methylmercaptopurine (6-MMP). Erythrocytes (8 x 10(8) cells) in 350 µl Hanks solution containing 7.5 mg dithiothreitol were treated with 50 µl 70% perchloric acid. The precipitate was removed by centrifugation (13,000 g) and the supernatant hydrolyzed at 100°C for 45 min. After cooling, 100 µl was analyzed directly by HPLC using a Radialpack Resolve C18 column eluted with methanol-water (7.5:92.5, v/v) containing 100 mM triethylamine. 6-TG, 6-MP and the hydrolysis product of 6-MMP, 4-amino-5-(methylthio)carbonyl imidazole, were monitored at 342, 322 and 303 nm using a Shimadzu SPD-M10A diode array UV detector. The analytes eluted at 5.3, 6.0 and 10.2 min, respectively. The calibration curves were linear (r² > 0.998), and the analytical recoveries were 73.2% for 6-TG, 119.1% for 6-MP and 97.4% for 6-MMP. The intra- and inter-assay variations were highest for 6-MP (9.6 and 14.3%, respectively). The lowest detectable concentrations were 3, 3 and 25 pmol/8 x 10(8) erythrocytes for 6-TG, 6-MP and 6-MMP, respectively. The quantification limits (coefficients of variation <15%) were 8, 10 and 70 pmol/8 x 10(8) erythrocytes for 6-TG, 6-MP and 6-MMP, respectively. The method was applied to the analysis of 183 samples from 36 children under chemotherapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The concentrations of the metabolites in the red cells of the patients ranged from 0 to 1934 pmol/8 x 10(8) erythrocytes for 6-TGN, and from 0 to 105.8 and 0 to 45.9 nmol/8 x 10(8) erythrocytes for 6-MP and 6-MMP, respectively. The procedure gave results that were in agreement with those obtained with other methods designed to detect cases of non-compliance with treatment, including patient interviews and medical evaluation, among others, demonstrating its applicability to monitoring the treatment of leukemic children.

Bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy for the assessment of body fluid volumes of term neonates

The assessment of fluid volume in neonates by a noninvasive, inexpensive, and fast method can contribute significantly to increase the quality of neonatal care. The objective of the present study was to calibrate an acquisition system and software to estimate the bioelectrical impedance parameters obtained by a method of bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy based on step response and to develop specific equations for the neonatal population to determine body fluid compartments. Bioelectric impedance measurements were performed by a laboratory homemade instrument. The volumes were estimated in a clinical study on 30 full-term neonates at four different times during the first month of life. During the first 24 hours of life the total body water, extracellular water and intracellular water were 2.09 ± 0.25, 1.20 ± 0.19, and 0.90 ± 0.25 liters, respectively. By the 48th hour they were 1.87 ± 0.27, 1.08 ± 0.17, and 0.79 ± 0.21 liters, respectively. On the 10th day they were 2.02 ± 0.25, 1.29 ± 0.21, and 0.72 ± 0.14 liters, respectively, and after 1 month they were 2.34 ± 0.27, 1.62 ± 0.20, and 0.72 ± 0.13 liters, respectively. The behavior of the estimated volume was correlated with neonatal body weight changes, leading to a better interpretation of such changes. In conclusion, this study indicates the feasibility of bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy as a method to help fluid administration in intensive care neonatal units, and also contribute to the development of new equations to estimate neonatal body fluid contents.

Performance of two-dimensional Doppler echocardiography for the assessment of infarct size and left ventricular function in rats

Although echocardiography has been used in rats, few studies have determined its efficacy for estimating myocardial infarct size. Our objective was to estimate the myocardial infarct size, and to evaluate anatomic and functional variables of the left ventricle. Myocardial infarction was produced in 43 female Wistar rats by ligature of the left coronary artery. Echocardiography was performed 5 weeks later to measure left ventricular diameter and transverse area (mean of 3 transverse planes), infarct size (percentage of the arc with infarct on 3 transverse planes), systolic function by the change in fractional area, and diastolic function by mitral inflow parameters. The histologic measurement of myocardial infarction size was similar to the echocardiographic method. Myocardial infarct size ranged from 4.8 to 66.6% when determined by histology and from 5 to 69.8% when determined by echocardiography, with good correlation (r = 0.88; P < 0.05; Pearson correlation coefficient). Left ventricular diameter and mean diastolic transverse area correlated with myocardial infarct size by histology (r = 0.57 and r = 0.78; P < 0.0005). The fractional area change ranged from 28.5 ± 5.6 (large-size myocardial infarction) to 53.1 ± 1.5% (control) and correlated with myocardial infarct size by echocardiography (r = -0.87; P < 0.00001) and histology (r = -0.78; P < 00001). The E/A wave ratio of mitral inflow velocity for animals with large-size myocardial infarction (5.6 ± 2.7) was significantly higher than for all others (control: 1.9 ± 0.1; small-size myocardial infarction: 1.9 ± 0.4; moderate-size myocardial infarction: 2.8 ± 2.3). There was good agreement between echocardiographic and histologic estimates of myocardial infarct size in rats.

Assessment of the progressive nature of cell damage in the pilocarpine model of epilepsy

Pilocarpine-induced (320 mg/kg, ip) status epilepticus (SE) in adult (2-3 months) male Wistar rats results in extensive neuronal damage in limbic structures. Here we investigated whether the induction of a second SE (N = 6) would generate damage and cell loss similar to that seen after a first SE (N = 9). Counts of silver-stained (indicative of cell damage) cells, using the Gallyas argyrophil III method, revealed a markedly lower neuronal injury in animals submitted to re-induction of SE compared to rats exposed to a single episode of pilocarpine-induced SE. This effect could be explained as follows: 1) the first SE removes the vulnerable cells, leaving behind resistant cells that are not affected by the second SE; 2) the first SE confers increased resistance to the remaining cells, analogous to the process of ischemic tolerance. Counting of Nissl-stained cells was performed to differentiate between these alternative mechanisms. Our data indicate that different neuronal populations react differently to SE induction. For some brain areas most, if not all, of the vulnerable cells are lost after an initial insult leaving only relatively resistant cells and little space for further damage or cell loss. For some other brain areas, in contrast, our data support the hypothesis that surviving cells might be modified by the initial insult which would confer a sort of excitotoxic tolerance. As a consequence of both mechanisms, subsequent insults after an initial insult result in very little damage regardless of their intensity.

Pitfalls in the assessment of murine atherosclerosis

This review provides examples of the fact that different procedures for the measurement of atherosclerosis in mice may lead to interpretation of the extent of atherosclerosis having markedly different biological and clinical significance for humans: 1) aortic cholesterol measurement is highly sensitive for the detection of early and advanced atherosclerosis lesions, but misses the identification of the location and complexity of these lesions that are so critical for humans; 2) the histological analysis of the aortic root lesions in simvastatin-treated and control mice reveals similar lesion morphology in spite of the remarkable simvastatin-induced reduction of the aortic cholesteryl ester content; 3) in histological analyses, chemical fixation and inclusion may extract the tissue fat and also shrink and distort tissue structures. Thus, the method may be less sensitive for the detection of slight differences among the experimental groups, unless a more suitable procedure employing physical fixation with histological sample freezing using optimal cutting temperature and liquid nitrogen is employed. Thus, when measuring experimental atherosclerosis in mice, investigators should be aware of several previously unreported pitfalls regarding the extent, location and complexity of the arterial lesion that may not be suitable for extrapolation to human pathology.

A simple method to assess freezing of gait in Parkinson's disease patients

Freezing of gait (FOG) can be assessed by clinical and instrumental methods. Clinical examination has the advantage of being available to most clinicians; however, it requires experience and may not reveal FOG even for cases confirmed by the medical history. Instrumental methods have an advantage in that they may be used for ambulatory monitoring. The aim of the present study was to describe and evaluate a new instrumental method based on a force sensitive resistor and Pearson's correlation coefficient (Pcc) for the assessment of FOG. Nine patients with Parkinson's disease in the "on" state walked through a corridor, passed through a doorway and made a U-turn. We analyzed 24 FOG episodes by computing the Pcc between one "regular/normal" step and the rest of the steps. The Pcc reached ±1 for "normal" locomotion, while correlation diminished due to the lack of periodicity during FOG episodes. Gait was assessed in parallel with video. FOG episodes determined from the video were all detected with the proposed method. The computed duration of the FOG episodes was compared with those estimated from the video. The method was sensitive to various types of freezing; although no differences due to different types of freezing were detected. The study showed that Pcc analysis permitted the computerized detection of FOG in a simple manner analogous to human visual judgment, and its automation may be useful in clinical practice to provide a record of the history of FOG.

Assessment of lettuce quality during storage at low relative humidity using Global Stability Index methodology

During postharvest, lettuce is usually exposed to adverse conditions (e.g. low relative humidity) that reduce the vegetable quality. In order to evaluate its shelf life, a great number of quality attributes must be analyzed, which requires careful experimental design, and it is time consuming. In this study, the modified Global Stability Index method was applied to estimate the quality of butter lettuce at low relative humidity during storage discriminating three lettuce zones (internal, middle, and external). The results indicated that the most relevant attributes were: the external zone - relative water content, water content , ascorbic acid, and total mesophilic counts; middle zone - relative water content, water content, total chlorophyll, and ascorbic acid; internal zone - relative water content, bound water, water content, and total mesophilic counts. A mathematical model that takes into account the Global Stability Index and overall visual quality for each lettuce zone was proposed. Moreover, the Weibull distribution was applied to estimate the maximum vegetable storage time which was 5, 4, and 3 days for the internal, middle, and external zone, respectively. When analyzing the effect of storage time for each lettuce zone, all the indices evaluated in the external zone of lettuce presented significant differences (p < 0.05). For both, internal and middle zones, the attributes presented significant differences (p < 0.05), except for water content and total chlorophyll.

Optimization of image analysis techniques for quality assessment of whole-wheat breads made with fat replacer

The cellular structure of healthy food products, with added dietary fiber and low in calories, is an important factor that contributes to the assessment of quality, which can be quantified by image analysis of visual texture. This study seeks to compare image analysis techniques (binarization using Otsu’s method and the default ImageJ algorithm, a variation of the iterative intermeans method) for quantification of differences in the crumb structure of breads made with different percentages of whole-wheat flour and fat replacer, and discuss the behavior of the parameters number of cells, mean cell area, cell density, and circularity using response surface methodology. Comparative analysis of the results achieved with the Otsu and default ImageJ algorithms showed a significant difference between the studied parameters. The Otsu method demonstrated the crumb structure of the analyzed breads more reliably than the default ImageJ algorithm, and is thus the most suitable in terms of structural representation of the crumb texture.

Excavation-drier method of energy-peat extraction reduces long-term climatic impact

Climatic impacts of energy-peat extraction are of increasing concern due to EU emissions trading requirements. A new excavation-drier peat extraction method has been developed to reduce the climatic impact and increase the efficiency of peat extraction. To quantify and compare the soil GHG fluxes of the excavation drier and the traditional milling methods, as well as the areas from which the energy peat is planned to be extracted in the future (extraction reserve area types), soil CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes were measured during 2006–2007 at three sites in Finland. Within each site, fluxes were measured from drained extraction reserve areas, extraction fields and stockpiles of both methods and additionally from the biomass driers of the excavation-drier method. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), described at a principal level in ISO Standards 14040:2006 and 14044:2006, was used to assess the long-term (100 years) climatic impact from peatland utilisation with respect to land use and energy production chains where utilisation of coal was replaced with peat. Coal was used as a reference since in many cases peat and coal can replace each other in same power plants. According to this study, the peat extraction method used was of lesser significance than the extraction reserve area type in regards to the climatic impact. However, the excavation-drier method seems to cause a slightly reduced climatic impact as compared with the prevailing milling method.

Customer Need Assessment for Differentiation in Building Information Modeling

Building Information Modeling – BIM is widely spreading in the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industries. Manufacturers of building elements are also starting to provide more and more objects of their products. The ideal availability and distribution for these models is not yet stabilized. Usual goal of a manufacturer is to get their model into design as early as possible. Finding the ways to satisfy customer needs with a superior service would help to achieve this goal. This study aims to seek what case company’s customers want out of the model and what they think is the ideal way to obtain these models and what are the desired functionalities for this service. This master’s thesis uses a modified version of lead user method to gain understanding of what the needs are in a longer term. In this framework also benchmarking of current solutions and their common model functions is done. Empirical data is collected with survey and interviews. As a result this thesis provides understanding that what is the information customer uses when obtaining a model, what kind of model is expected to be achieved and how is should the process optimally function. Based on these results ideal service is pointed out.

Assessment of physiological potential of cucumber seeds using the software Seedling Vigor Imaging System® (SVIS®)

The software Seed Vigor Imaging System (SVIS®), has been successfully used to evaluate seed physiological potential by automated analyses of scanned seedlings. In this research, the efficiency of this system was compared to other tests accepted for assessing cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) seed vigor of distinct seed lots of Supremo and Safira cultivars. Seeds were subjected to germination, traditional and saturated salt accelerated aging, seedling emergence, seedling length and SVIS analyses (determination of vigor indices and seedling growth uniformity, lengths of primary root, hypocotyl and whole seedlings). It was also determined whether the definition of seedling growth/uniformity ratios affects the sensitivity of the SVIS®. Results showed that analyses SVIS have provided consistent identification of seed lots performance, and have produced information comparable to those from recommended seed vigor tests, thus demonstrating a suitable sensitivity for a rapid and objective evaluation of physiological potential of cucumber seeds. Analyses of four-days-old cucumber seedlings using the SVIS® are more accurate and growth/uniformity does not affect the precision of results.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.