The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological Perspective

The equiprobability bias (EB) is a tendency to believe that every process in which randomness is involved corresponds to a fair distribution, with equal probabilities for any possible outcome. The EB is known to affect both children and adults, and to increase with probability education. Because it results in probability errors resistant to pedagogical interventions, it has been described as a deep misconception about randomness: the erroneous belief that randomness implies uniformity. In the present paper, we show that the EB is actually not the result of a conceptual error about the definition of randomness. On the contrary, the mathematical theory of randomness does imply uniformity. However, the EB is still a bias, because people tend to assume uniformity even in the case of events that are not random. The pervasiveness of the EB reveals a paradox: The combination of random processes is not necessarily random. The link between the EB and this paradox is discussed, and suggestions are made regarding educational design to overcome difficulties encountered by students as a consequence of the EB.

Exploring the needs of socially excluded young men

In recent years, social exclusion has gained the attention of governments around the world. This paper reports on a qualitative study involving 27 young men aged 14-19 years experiencing particular forms of exclusion in the context of Northern Irish society. The study used a focus group methodology to elicit their views with the aim of exploring both emotional and psychological needs and the structural factors that may contribute to their experiences of social exclusion. The findings reveal a range of unmet social and psychological needs, the impact of sectarianism and segregation, and a paucity of support systems in place. The paper concludes by making recommendations about how policy-makers and practitioners could find more imaginative ways of engaging such vulnerable young men to reduce social exclusion. 

Understanding the 'production' of the schooling identities of young working class boys: time to move beyond the sociological/psychological divide?

In recent times the sociology of childhood has played an important role in challenging the dominance of Piagetian models of child development in shaping the way we think about children and childhood. What such work has successfully achieved is to increase our understanding of the socially constructed nature of childhood; the social competence and agency of children; and the diverse nature of children’s lives, reflecting the very different social contexts within which they are located. One of the problems that has tended to be associated with this work, however, is that in its critique of developmentalism it has tended simply to replace one orthodoxy (psychology) with another (sociology) rather than providing the opportunity to transcend this divide. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate some of the potential ways in which the sociological/psychological divide might be transcended and the benefits of this for understanding, more fully, the ‘production’ of children’s schooling identities. In particular it shows how some of the key sociological insights to be found in the work of Bourdieu may be usefully extended by the work inspired by the developmental psychologist, Vygotsky. The key arguments are illustrated by reference to ethnographic data relating to the schooling experiences and identities of a group of 5-6 year old working class boys.

A methodology for sensor modeling and placement optimization to support temperature monitoring

This paper presents a modeling and optimization approach for sensor placement in a building zone that supports reliable environment monitoring. © 2012 ACM.

Uses and abuses of fractal methodology in ecology

Fractals have found widespread application in a range of scientific fields, including ecology. This rapid growth has produced substantial new insights, but has also spawned confusion and a host of methodological problems. In this paper, we review the value of fractal methods, in particular for applications to spatial ecology, and outline potential pitfalls. Methods for measuring fractals in nature and generating fractal patterns for use in modelling are surveyed. We stress the limitations and the strengths of fractal models. Strictly speaking, no ecological pattern can be truly fractal, but fractal methods may nonetheless provide the most efficient tool available for describing and predicting ecological patterns at multiple scales.

A methodology to analyse the impact of offshore wind forecasting error on electricity markets

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms in the British Isles, but both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland have high renewable energy targets, expected to come mostly from wind power. However, as the demand for wind power grows to ensure security of energy supply, as a potentially cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets offshore wind power will grow rapidly as the availability of suitable onshore sites decrease. However, wind is variable and stochastic by nature and thus difficult to schedule. In order to plan for these uncertainties market operators use wind forecasting tools, reserve plant and ancillary service agreements. Onshore wind power forecasting techniques have improved dramatically and continue to advance, but offshore wind power forecasting is more difficult due to limited datasets and knowledge. So as the amount of offshore wind power increases in the British Isles robust forecasting and planning techniques are even more critical. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of better offshore wind forecasting on the operation and management of the single wholesale electricity market in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland using PLEXOS for Power Systems. © 2013 IEEE.

Best friends and better coping: Facilitating psychological resilience through boys’ and girls’ closest friendships

This is a novel investigation of whether, and how, a single close supportive friendship may facilitate psychological resilience in socio-economically vulnerable British adolescents. A total of 409 adolescents (160 boys, 245 girls, four unknown), aged between 11 and 19 years, completed self-report measures of close friendship quality, psychological resilience, social support, and other resources. Findings revealed a significant positive association between perceived friendship quality and resilience. This relationship was facilitated through inter-related mechanisms of developing a constructive coping style (comprised of support-seeking and active coping), effort, a supportive friendship network, and reduced disengaged and externalising coping. While protective processes were encouragingly significantly present across genders, boys were more vulnerable to the deleterious effects of disengaged and externalizing coping than girls. We suggest that individual close friendships are an important potential protective mechanism accessible to most adolescents. We discuss implications of the resulting Adolescent Friendship and Resilience Model for resilience theories and integration into practice.

Practicing peace: Psychological roots of transforming conflicts

The practice of sustainable peace is a process that must be initiated, nourished and revised. The
“social energies” of conflict transformation – truth, mercy, justice, peace – offer a useful model to describe the transformative power of this practice. These social energies can be conceptualized as a combination of norms or values, on the one hand, and actions directed toward social reconstruction, on the other. As such, the social energies of conflict transformation are both the guideposts and the engine in the journey of practicing sustainable peace. This article begins by
linking psychological constructs of narrative/voice, empathy/altruism, individual/collective guilt, and security/fear with the social energies, highlighting the interdependence of processes and shifting the focus away from pathology toward an emphasis on harmony. An empirical application of how the four social energies contribute to the mobilization, maintenance and adaptations in on-going peace processes in post-war Guatemala is then presented. By analyzing the interaction among diverse actors and goals in the decade and a half since the signing of the 1996 Peace Accords, current theory is extended in two ways: a) differentiation between elite and grassroots initiatives, and b) specification and evaluation the impact of various efforts on episodic and structural violence. We conclude that although national and local processes have
had limited success, more integrated practices of truth, mercy, justice and peace are necessary if Guatemala is to make sustainable peace a reality. The findings from this case study have policy and practical implications for other countries facing protracted, violent conflict.

An alternative methodology in Schottky diode physics

The fabrication and electrical characterization of Schottky junction diodes have been extensively researched for three-quarters of a century since the original work of Schottky in 1938. This study breaks from the highly standardized regime of such research and provides an alternative methodology that prompts novel, more efficient applications of the adroit Schottky junction in areas such as chemical and thermal sensing. The core departure from standard Schottky diode configuration is that the metal electrode is of comparable or higher resistance than the underlying semiconductor. Further, complete electrical characterization is accomplished through recording four-probe resistance-temperature (R-D-T) characteristics of the device, where electrical sourcing and sensing is done only via the metal electrode and not directly through the semiconductor. Importantly, this results in probing a nominally unbiased junction while eliminating the need for an Ohmic contact to the semiconductor. The characteristic R-D-T plot shows two distinct regions of high (metal) and low (semiconductor) resistances at low and high temperatures, respectively, connected by a crossover region of width, DT, within which there is a large negative temperature coefficient of resistance. The R-D-T characteristic is highly sensitive to the Schottky barrier height; consequently, at a fixed temperature, R-D responds appreciably to small changes in barrier height such as that induced by absorption of a chemical species (e.g., H-2) at the interface. A theoretical model is developed to simulate the R-D-T data and applied to Pd/p-Si and Pt/p-Si Schottky diodes with a range of metal electrode resistance. The analysis gives near-perfect fits to the experimental R-D-T characteristics, yielding the junction properties as fit parameters. The modelling not only helps elucidate the underlying physics but also helps to comprehend the parameter space essential for the discussed applications. Although the primary regime of application is limited to a relatively narrow range (DT) for a given type of diode, the alternative methodology is of universal applicability to all metal-semiconductor combinations forming Schottky contacts. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

A kinetic analysis methodology to elucidate the roles of metal, support and solvent for the hydrogenation of 4-phenyl-2-butanone over Pt/TiO2

The rate and, more importantly, selectivity (ketone vs aromatic ring) of the hydrogenation of 4-phenyl-2-butanone over a Pt/TiO2 catalyst have been shown to vary with solvent. In this study, a fundamental kinetic model for this multi-phase reaction has been developed incorporating statistical analysis methods to strengthen the foundations of mechanistically sound kinetic models. A 2-site model was determined to be most appropriate, describing aromatic hydrogenation (postulated to be over a platinum site) and ketone hydrogenation (postulated to be at the platinum–titania interface). Solvent choice has little impact on the ketone hydrogenation rate constant but strongly impacts aromatic hydrogenation due to solvent-catalyst interaction. Reaction selectivity is also correlated to a fitted product adsorption constant parameter. The kinetic analysis method shown has demonstrated the role of solvents in influencing reactant adsorption and reaction selectivity.