Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

Observations of the eruption of the Sarychev volcano and simulations using the HadGEM2 climate model

In June 2009 the Sarychev volcano located in the Kuril Islands to the northeast of Japan erupted explosively, injecting ash and an estimated 1.2 ± 0.2 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, making it arguably one of the 10 largest stratospheric injections in the last 50 years. During the period immediately after the eruption, we show that the sulfur dioxide (SO2) cloud was clearly detected by retrievals developed for the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite instrument and that the resultant stratospheric sulfate aerosol was detected by the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS) limb sounder and CALIPSO lidar. Additional surface‐based instrumentation allows assessment of the impact of the eruption on the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. We use a nudged version of the HadGEM2 climate model to investigate how well this state‐of‐the‐science climate model can replicate the distributions of SO2 and sulfate aerosol. The model simulations and OSIRIS measurements suggest that in the Northern Hemisphere the stratospheric aerosol optical depth was enhanced by around a factor of 3 (0.01 at 550 nm), with resultant impacts upon the radiation budget. The simulations indicate that, in the Northern Hemisphere for July 2009, the magnitude of the mean radiative impact from the volcanic aerosols is more than 60% of the direct radiative forcing of all anthropogenic aerosols put together. While the cooling induced by the eruption will likely not be detectable in the observational record, the combination of modeling and measurements would provide an ideal framework for simulating future larger volcanic eruptions.

Adverbial quantification and perfective/imperfective interpretive nuances in L2 Portuguese

Slabakova (2006b) poses and directly addresses the question of whether or not there is a maturational effect (a critical/sensitive period) that affects the semantic component. She demonstrates that there is no empirical evidence suggesting that adults are unable to acquire phrasal semantic properties, even when the accessing of semantic universals is conditioned upon the acquisition of L2 morphosyntactic features (see Dekydtspotter and Sprouse 2001, Slabakova and Montrul 2003). In light of this, the authors test for interpretive properties associated with the aspectual projection higher (outer) AspP in advanced English learners of adult L2 Portuguese via their knowledge of [+/- accidental] related nuances in adverbially quantified preterit and imperfect sentences (Lenci and Bertinetto 2000; Menéndez-Benito 2002). In two experiments, the authors test for L2 knowledge of this [+/- accidental] distinction via semantic felicitousness judgments of adverbially quantified preterit and imperfect sentences depending on a supporting context as well as related restrictions on subject DP interpretations. Overall, the data show that advanced learners acquire this distinction. As the authors discuss, the present data support Full Access theories (White 1989, Schwartz and Sprouse 1996; Duffield and White 1999) and the No-Critical Period for semantics position (Slabakova 2006b), demonstrating that the syntax-semantics interface is not an inevitable locus for fossilization.

No Haus Like Bau

The project consists of a live performance taking the 2005 IKEA riot as the starting point for a speculative history of a fictional future, culminating in a choreographed re-enactment of the original event. It is accompanied by a film series explores the possibility of collective action emerging from the capitalist relations inherent in the consumer riot. The performance, staged at the Berlin Biennale, continues this research into re-enactment and post-1989 politics, using a stage set made of flatpack furniture. Using the aesthetics of Modernism and the avant garde, the project transposes early twentieth century utopian ideology to a present day setting where mass uprisings are motivated by cheap commodities. By re-evaluating biomechanics and Bauhaus theatre theory, these explorations of consumerism and revolution propose that the mechanized movement developed in conjunction with industrial labour survives as a historical re-enactment in the wake of manufacturing work in the west. In the absence of a visual language apt to the contemporary, No Haus Like Bau uses re-enactment as a retrogarde tactic. Its purpose on the one hand is to invoke trajectories for alternate futures that never materialized at an originary moment. On the other hand, the clash of past forms with present content serves to accentuate the historical changes that have thrown into question these forms. Rather than reflecting the present, the projection of the past into a fictional future aims to destabilize the dominant narrative that suggests the current configuration of art, politics and human nature has always been this way. The project has been widely exhibited internationally and supported by Film London and Arts Council England. A theoretical essay on re-enactment as a strategy for performance has been published in Art Papers and in Memory [MIT]. The project also formed the basis of a solo exhibition at Te Tuhi Art Centre, Auckland.

Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment UK with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD

The potential impact of climate change on areas of strategic importance for water resources remains a concern. Here, river flow projections for the River Medway, above Teston in southeast England are presented, which is just such an area of strategic importance. The river flow projections use climate inputs from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3) for the time period 1960–2080 (a subset of the early release UKCP09 projections). River flow predictions are calculated using CATCHMOD, the main river flow prediction tool of the Environment Agency (EA) of England and Wales. In order to use this tool in the best way for climate change predictions, model setup and performance are analysed using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model's representation of hydrological processes is discussed and the direct percolation and first linear storage constant parameters are found to strongly affect model results in a complex way, with the former more important for low flows and the latter for high flows. The uncertainty in predictions resulting from the hydrological model parameters is demonstrated and the projections of river flow under future climate are analysed. A clear climate change impact signal is evident in the results with a persistent lowering of mean daily river flows for all months and for all projection time slices. Results indicate that a projection of lower flows under future climate is valid even taking into account the uncertainties considered in this modelling chain exercise. The model parameter uncertainty becomes more significant under future climate as the river flows become lower. This has significant implications for those making policy decisions based on such modelling results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Metabolic phenotype modulation by caloric restriction in a lifelong dog study

Modeling aging and age-related pathologies presents a substantial analytical challenge given the complexity of gene−environment influences and interactions operating on an individual. A top-down systems approach is used to model the effects of lifelong caloric restriction, which is known to extend life span in several animal models. The metabolic phenotypes of caloric-restricted (CR; n = 24) and pair-housed control-fed (CF; n = 24) Labrador Retriever dogs were investigated by use of orthogonal projection to latent structures discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) to model both generic and age-specific responses to caloric restriction from the 1H NMR blood serum profiles of young and older dogs. Three aging metabolic phenotypes were resolved: (i) an aging metabolic phenotype independent of diet, characterized by high levels of glutamine, creatinine, methylamine, dimethylamine, trimethylamine N-oxide, and glycerophosphocholine and decreasing levels of glycine, aspartate, creatine and citrate indicative of metabolic changes associated largely with muscle mass; (ii) an aging metabolic phenotype specific to CR dogs that consisted of relatively lower levels of glucose, acetate, choline, and tyrosine and relatively higher serum levels of phosphocholine with increased age in the CR population; (iii) an aging metabolic phenotype specific to CF dogs including lower levels of liproprotein fatty acyl groups and allantoin and relatively higher levels of formate with increased age in the CF population. There was no diet metabotype that consistently differentiated the CF and CR dogs irrespective of age. Glucose consistently discriminated between feeding regimes in dogs (≥312 weeks), being relatively lower in the CR group. However, it was observed that creatine and amino acids (valine, leucine, isoleucine, lysine, and phenylalanine) were lower in the CR dogs (<312 weeks), suggestive of differences in energy source utilization. 1H NMR spectroscopic analysis of longitudinal serum profiles enabled an unbiased evaluation of the metabolic markers modulated by a lifetime of caloric restriction and showed differences in the metabolic phenotype of aging due to caloric restriction, which contributes to longevity studies in caloric-restricted animals. Furthermore, OPLS-DA provided a framework such that significant metabolites relating to life extension could be differentiated and integrated with aging processes.

Implications of model error for numerical climate prediction

Numerical climate models constitute the best available tools to tackle the problem of climate prediction. Two assumptions lie at the heart of their suitability: (1) a climate attractor exists, and (2) the numerical climate model's attractor lies on the actual climate attractor, or at least on the projection of the climate attractor on the model's phase space. In this contribution, the Lorenz '63 system is used both as a prototype system and as an imperfect model to investigate the implications of the second assumption. By comparing results drawn from the Lorenz '63 system and from numerical weather and climate models, the implications of using imperfect models for the prediction of weather and climate are discussed. It is shown that the imperfect model's orbit and the system's orbit are essentially different, purely due to model error and not to sensitivity to initial conditions. Furthermore, if a model is a perfect model, then the attractor, reconstructed by sampling a collection of initialised model orbits (forecast orbits), will be invariant to forecast lead time. This conclusion provides an alternative method for the assessment of climate models.

A gradual depth-dependent change of connectivity features of supragranular pyramidal cells in rat barrel cortex

Recent experimental evidence suggests a finer genetic, structural and functional subdivision of the layers which form a cortical column. The classical layer II/III (LII/III) of rodent neocortex integrates ascending sensory information with contextual cortical information for behavioral read-out. We systematically investigated to which extent regular-spiking supragranular pyramidal neurons, located at different depths within the cortex, show different input-output connectivity patterns. Combining glutamate-uncaging with whole-cell recordings and biocytin filling, we revealed a novel cellular organization of LII/III: (i) “Lower LII/III” pyramidal cells receive a very strong excitatory input from lemniscal LIV and much fewer inputs from paralemniscal LVa. They project to all layers of the home column, including a feedback projection to LIV whereas transcolumnar projections are relatively sparse. (ii) “Upper LII/III” pyramidal cells also receive their strongest input from LIV, but in addition, a very strong and dense excitatory input from LVa. They project extensively to LII/III as well as LVa and Vb of their home and neighboring columns, (iii) “Middle LII/III” pyramidal cell show an intermediate connectivity phenotype that stands in many ways in-between the features described for lower versus upper LII/III. “Lower LII/III” intracolumnarly segregates and transcolumnarly integrates lemniscal information whereas “upper LII/III” seems to integrate lemniscal with paralemniscal information. This suggests a finegrained functional subdivision of the supragranular compartment containing multiple circuits without any obvious cytoarchitectonic, other structural or functional correlate of a laminar border in rodent barrel cortex.

Northern winter climate change: assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere–troposphere coupling

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on Northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess Northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the inter-model spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the inter-model spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

On the longitudinal extent of magnetopause reconnection pulses

The open magnetosphere model of cusp ion injection, acceleration and precipitation is used to predict the dispersion characteristics for fully pulsed magnetic reconnection at a low-latitude magnetopause X-line. The resulting steps, as would be seen by a satellite moving meridionally and normal to the ionospheric projection of the X-line, are compared with those seen by satellites moving longitudinally, along the open/closed boundary. It is shown that two observed cases can be explained by similar magnetosheath and reconnection characteristics, and that the major differences between them are well explained by the different satellite paths through the events. Both cases were observed in association with poleward-moving transient events seen by ground-based radar, as also predicted by the theory. The results show that the reconnection is pulsed but strongly imply it cannot also be spatially patchy, in the sense of isolated X-lines which independently are intermittently active. Furthermore they show that the reconnection pulses responsible for the poleward-moving events and the cusp ion steps, must cover at least 3 h of magnetic local time, although propagation of the active reconnection region may mean that it does not extend this far at any one instant of time.

Flow-aligned jets in the magnetospheric cusp: Results from the Geospace Environment Modeling Pilot Program

The extended flight of the Airborne Ionospheric Observatory during the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Pilot program on January 16, 1990, allowed continuous all-sky monitoring of the two-dimensional ionospheric footprint of the northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) cusp in several wavelengths. Especially important in determining the locus of magnetosheath electron precipitation was the 630.0-nm red line emission. The most striking morphological change in the images was the transient appearance of zonally elongated regions of enhanced 630.0-nm emission which resembled “rays” emanating from the centroid of the precipitation. The appearance of these rays was strongly correlated with the Y component of the IMF: when the magnitude of By was large compared to Bz, the rays appeared; otherwise, the distribution was relatively unstructured. Late in the flight the field of view of the imager included the field of view of flow measurements from the European incoherent scatter radar (EISCAT). The rays visible in 630.0-nm emission exactly aligned with the position of strong flow jets observed by EISCAT. We attribute this correspondence to the requirement of quasi-neutrality; namely, the soft electrons have their largest precipitating fluxes where the bulk of the ions precipitate. The ions, in regions of strong convective flow, are spread out farther along the flow path than in regions of weaker flow. The occurrence and direction of these flow bursts are controlled by the IMF in a manner consistent with newly opened flux tubes; i.e., when |By| > |Bz|, tension in the reconnected field lines produce east-west flow regions downstream of the ionospheric projection of the x line. We interpret the optical rays (flow bursts), which typically last between 5 and 15 min, as evidence of periods of enhanced dayside (or lobe) reconnection when |By| > |Bz|. The length of the reconnection pulse is difficult to determine, however, since strong zonal flows would be expected to persist until the tension force in the field line has decayed, even if the duration of the enhanced reconnection was relatively short.

Causes of plasma flow bursts and dayside auroral transients: An evaluation of two models Invoking reconnection pulses and changes in the Y component of the magnetosheath field

Longitudinal flow bursts observed by the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar, in association with dayside auroral transients observed from Svalbard, have been interpreted as resulting from pulses of enhanced reconnection at the dayside magnetopause. However, an alternative model has recently been proposed for a steady rate of magnetopause reconnection, in which the bursts of longitudinal flow are due to increases in the field line curvature force, associated with the By component of the magnetosheath field. We here evaluate these two models, using observations on January 20, 1990, by EISCAT and a 630-nm all-sky camera at Ny Ålesund. For both models, we predict the behavior of both the dayside flows and the 630-nm emissions on newly opened field lines. It is shown that the signatures of steady reconnection and magnetosheath By changes could possibly resemble the observed 630-nm auroral events, but only for certain locations of the observing site, relative to the ionospheric projection of the reconnection X line: however, in such cases, the flow bursts would be seen between the 630-nm transients and not within them. On the other hand, the model of reconnection rate pulses predicts that the flows will be enhanced within each 630-nm transient auroral event. The observations on January 20, 1990, are shown to be consistent with the model of enhanced reconnection rate pulses over a background level and inconsistent with the effects of periodic enhancements of the magnitude of the magnetosheath By component. We estimate that the reconnection rate within the pulses would have to be at least an order of magnitude larger than the background level between the pulses.

The BioDICE Taverna plugin for clustering and visualization of biological data: a workflow for molecular compounds exploration

Background: In many experimental pipelines, clustering of multidimensional biological datasets is used to detect hidden structures in unlabelled input data. Taverna is a popular workflow management system that is used to design and execute scientific workflows and aid in silico experimentation. The availability of fast unsupervised methods for clustering and visualization in the Taverna platform is important to support a data-driven scientific discovery in complex and explorative bioinformatics applications. Results: This work presents a Taverna plugin, the Biological Data Interactive Clustering Explorer (BioDICE), that performs clustering of high-dimensional biological data and provides a nonlinear, topology preserving projection for the visualization of the input data and their similarities. The core algorithm in the BioDICE plugin is Fast Learning Self Organizing Map (FLSOM), which is an improved variant of the Self Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm. The plugin generates an interactive 2D map that allows the visual exploration of multidimensional data and the identification of groups of similar objects. The effectiveness of the plugin is demonstrated on a case study related to chemical compounds. Conclusions: The number and variety of available tools and its extensibility have made Taverna a popular choice for the development of scientific data workflows. This work presents a novel plugin, BioDICE, which adds a data-driven knowledge discovery component to Taverna. BioDICE provides an effective and powerful clustering tool, which can be adopted for the explorative analysis of biological datasets.

Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.