Réserves à propos de la notion d'objectivité en lien avec l'incertitude et les probabilités rencontrées dans le procès pénal

Cette contribution présente quelques conceptions de la notion dite d' "objectivité", couramment rencontrées parmi les juristes et scientifiques, et les effets inopportuns de ces perceptions sur une vision cohérente de l'incertitude et sa gestion par les probabilités dans le procès pénal. En invoquant des positions formulées par des célèbres probabilistes du 20ème siècle, mais occasionnellement négligées dans les discussions contemporaines, les auteurs argumentent ici en faveur d'une approche alternative, pragmatique et opérationnelle : la probabilité subjective.

Demogenetics in metapopulations

SUMMARY : Human-induced habitat fragmentation constitutes a major threat to biodiversity. Small and isolated populations suffer from increased stochasticity and from limited rescue effects. These two factors may be sufficient to cause local extinctions but fragmentation induces some genetic consequences that can also contribute significantly to extinction risks. Increased genetic drift reduces the effectiveness of selection against deleterious mutations, leading to their progressive accumulation. Drift also decreases both the standing genetic variation and the rate of fixation of beneficial mutations, limiting the evolutionary potential of isolated populations. Demography and genetics further interact and feed back on each other, progressively driving fragmented populations into "extinction vortices". The aim of the thesis was to better understand the processes occurring in fragmented populations. For this, I combined simulation studies and empirical data from three species that live in structured habitats. Chapter 1 and 2 investigate the demography of two shrew species in fragmented habitats. I showed that connectivity and habitat quality strongly affect the demography of the greater white-tooted shrew, although demographic stochasticity was extremely high. I also demonstrated that habitat fragmentation is one of the leading factors allowing the local coexistence of two competing shrew species. Chapter 3 and 4 focus on measuring connectivity in fragmented populations based on genetic data. In particular, I showed that genetic data can be used to detect the landscape elements impeding dispersal. In Chapter 5 that deals with the accumulation of deleterious mutations in fragmented populations, I demonstrated that mutation accumulation, as well a time to extinction, can be predicted from simple demographic and genetic measures. In the last two chapters, I monitored individual reproductive success in an isolated tree frogs population. These data allowed quantifying the effective population size, a measure closely linked to population evolutionary potential. To conclude, this thesis brings some new insights into the processes occurring in fragmented populations, and I hope it will contribute to the improvement of the management and conservation of fragmented populations.

Peripheral Nerve Neuropathy is Associated with a Glial Reaction in the Gracile Nucleus Associated with a regulation of the GABA transporter GAT-1

Allodynia (pain in response to normally non painful stimulation) and paresthesia (erroneous sensory experience) are two debilitating symptoms of neuropathic pain. These stem, at least partly, from profound changes in the non-nociceptive sensory pathway that comprises large myelinated neuronal afferents terminating in the gracile and cuneate nuclei. Further than neuronal changes, well admitted evidence indicates that glial cells (especially in the spinal cord) are key actors in neuropathic pain, in particular the possible alteration in astrocytic capacity to reuptake neurotransmitters (glutamate and GABA). Yet, the possibility of such a changed astrocytic scavenging capacity remains unexplored in the dorsal column pathway. The present study was therefore undertaken to assess whether peripheral nerve injury (spared nerve injury model, SNI) could trigger a glial reaction, and especially changes in glutamate and GABA transporters, in the gracile nucleus. SNI surgery was performed on male Sprague-Dawley rats. Seven days after surgery, rats were used for immunofluorescence (fixation and brain slicing), western-blot (fresh brain freezing and protein extraction) or GABA reuptake on synaptosomes. We found that SNI results in a profound glial reaction in the ipsilateral gracile nucleus. This reaction was characterized by an enhanced immunolabelling for microglial marker Iba1 as well as astrocytic protein GFAP (further confirmed by western-blot, p <0.05, n = 7). These changes were not observed in sham animals. Immunofluorescence and western-blot analysis shows that the GABA transporter GAT-1 is upregulated in the ipsilateral gracile nucleus (p <0.001; n = 7), with no detectable change in GAT-3 or glutamate transporters EAAT-1 and EAAT-2. Double immunoflurescence shows that GAT-1 and GFAP colocalize within the same cells. Furthermore, the upregulation of GFAP and GAT-1 were shown to occur all along the rostrocaudal axis of the gracile nucleus. Finally, synaptosomes from ipsilateral gracile nucleus show an increased capacity to reuptake GABA. Together, the data presented herein show that glial cells in the gracile nucleus react to neuropathic lesion, in particular through an upregulation of the GABA transporter GAT-1. Hence, this study points to role of an increased GABA transport in the dorsal column nuclei in neuropathic pain, calling attention to GAT-1 as a putative future pharmacological target to treat allodynia and paresthesia.

Étude des mécanismes de transfert des fibres en sciences forensiques

RESUME Les fibres textiles sont des produits de masse utilisés dans la fabrication de nombreux objets de notre quotidien. Le transfert de fibres lors d'une action délictueuse est dès lors extrêmement courant. Du fait de leur omniprésence dans notre environnement, il est capital que l'expert forensique évalue la valeur de l'indice fibres. L'interprétation de l'indice fibres passe par la connaissance d'un certain nombre de paramètres, comme la rareté des fibres, la probabilité de leur présence par hasard sur un certain support, ainsi que les mécanismes de transfert et de persistance des fibres. Les lacunes les plus importantes concernent les mécanismes de transfert des fibres. A ce jour, les nombreux auteurs qui se sont penchés sur le transfert de fibres ne sont pas parvenus à créer un modèle permettant de prédire le nombre de fibres que l'on s'attend à retrouver dans des circonstances de contact données, en fonction des différents paramètres caractérisant ce contact et les textiles mis en jeu. Le but principal de cette recherche est de démontrer que la création d'un modèle prédictif du nombre de fibres transférées lors d'un contact donné est possible. Dans le cadre de ce travail, le cas particulier du transfert de fibres d'un tricot en laine ou en acrylique d'un conducteur vers le dossier du siège de son véhicule a été étudié. Plusieurs caractéristiques des textiles mis en jeu lors de ces expériences ont été mesurées. Des outils statistiques (régression linéaire multiple) ont ensuite été utilisés sur ces données afin d'évaluer l'influence des caractéristiques des textiles donneurs sur le nombre de fibres transférées et d'élaborer un modèle permettant de prédire le nombre de fibres qui vont être transférées à l'aide des caractéristiques influençant significativement le transfert. Afin de faciliter la recherche et le comptage des fibres transférées lors des expériences de transfert, un appareil de recherche automatique des fibres (liber finder) a été utilisé dans le cadre de cette recherche. Les tests d'évaluation de l'efficacité de cet appareil pour la recherche de fibres montrent que la recherche automatique est globalement aussi efficace qu'une recherche visuelle pour les fibres fortement colorées. Par contre la recherche automatique perd de son efficacité pour les fibres très pâles ou très foncées. Une des caractéristiques des textiles donneurs à étudier est la longueur des fibres. Afin de pouvoir évaluer ce paramètre, une séquence d'algorithmes de traitement d'image a été implémentée. Cet outil permet la mesure de la longueur d'une fibre à partir de son image numérique à haute résolution (2'540 dpi). Les tests effectués montrent que les mesures ainsi obtenues présentent une erreur de l'ordre du dixième de millimètre, ce qui est largement suffisant pour son utilisation dans le cadre de cette recherche. Les résultats obtenus suite au traitement statistique des résultats des expériences de transfert ont permis d'aboutir à une modélisation du phénomène du transfert. Deux paramètres sont retenus dans le modèle: l'état de la surface du tissu donneur et la longueur des fibres composant le tissu donneur. L'état de la surface du tissu est un paramètre tenant compte de la quantité de fibres qui se sont détachées de la structure du tissu ou qui sont encore faiblement rattachées à celle-ci. En effet, ces fibres sont les premières à se transférer lors d'un contact, et plus la quantité de ces fibres par unité de surface est importante, plus le nombre de fibres transférées sera élevé. La longueur des fibres du tissu donneur est également un paramètre important : plus les fibres sont longues, mieux elles sont retenues dans la structure du tissu et moins elles se transféreront. SUMMARY Fibres are mass products used to produce numerous objects encountered everyday. The transfer of fibres during a criminal action is then very common. Because fibres are omnipresent in our environment, the forensic expert has to evaluate the value of the fibre evidence. To interpret fibre evidence, the expert has to know some parameters as frequency of fibres,' probability of finding extraneous fibres by chance on a given support, and transfer and persistence mechanisms. Fibre transfer is one of the most complex parameter. Many authors studied fibre transfer mechanisms but no model has been created to predict the number of fibres transferred expected in a given type of contact according to parameters as characteristics of the contact and characteristics of textiles. The main purpose of this research is to demonstrate that it is possible to create a model to predict the number of fibres transferred during a contact. In this work, the particular case of the transfer of fibres from a knitted textile in wool or in acrylic of a driver to the back of a carseat has been studied. Several characteristics of the textiles used for the experiments were measured. The data obtained were then treated with statistical tools (multiple linear regression) to evaluate the influence of the donor textile characteristics on the number of úbers transferred, and to create a model to predict this number of fibres transferred by an equation containing the characteristics having a significant influence on the transfer. To make easier the searching and the counting of fibres, an apparatus of automatic search. of fibers (fiber finder) was used. The tests realised to evaluate the efficiency of the fiber finder shows that the results obtained are generally as efficient as for visual search for well-coloured fibres. However, the efficiency of automatic search decreases for pales and dark fibres. One characteristic of the donor textile studied was the length of the fibres. To measure this parameter, a sequence of image processing algorithms was implemented. This tool allows to measure the length of a fibre from it high-resolution (2'540 dpi) numerical image. The tests done shows that the error of the measures obtained are about some tenths of millimetres. This precision is sufficient for this research. The statistical methods applied on the transfer experiment data allow to create a model of the transfer phenomenon. Two parameters are included in the model: the shedding capacity of the donor textile surface and the length of donor textile fibres. The shedding capacity of the donor textile surface is a parameter estimating the quantity of fibres that are not or slightly attached to the structure of the textile. These fibres are easily transferred during a contact, and the more this quantity of fibres is high, the more the number of fibres transferred during the contact is important. The length of fibres is also an important parameter: the more the fibres are long, the more they are attached in the structure of the textile and the less they are transferred during the contact.

Four-corner bone arthrodesis with dorsal rectangular plate: series and personal technique.

Controversy exists about the best method to achieve bone fusion in four-corner arthrodesis. Thirty-five patients who underwent this procedure by our technique were included in the study. Surgical indications were stage II-III SLAC wrist, stage II SNAC wrist and severe traumatic midcarpal joint injury. Mean follow-up was 4.6 years. Mean active flexion and extension were 34 degrees and 30 degrees respectively; grip strength recovery was 79%. Radiological consolidation was achieved in all cases. The mean DASH score was 23 and the postoperative pain improvement by visual analogue scale was statistically significant. Return to work was possible at 4 months for the average patient. Complications were a capitate fracture in one patient and the need for hardware removal in four cases. Four-corner bone wrist arthrodesis by dorsal rectangular plating achieves an acceptable preservation of range of motion with good pain relief, an excellent consolidation rate and minimal complications.

Within- and among-population impact of genetic erosion on adult fitness-related traits in the European tree frog Hyla arborea.

Assessing in wild populations how fitness is impacted by inbreeding and genetic drift is a major goal for conservation biology. An approach to measure the detrimental effects of inbreeding on fitness is to estimate correlations between molecular variation and phenotypic performances within and among populations. Our study investigated the effect of individual multilocus heterozygosity on body size, body condition and reproductive investment of males (that is, chorus attendance) and females (that is, clutch mass and egg size) in both small fragmented and large non-fragmented populations of European tree frog (Hyla arborea). Because adult size and/or condition and reproductive investment are usually related, genetic erosion may have detrimental effects directly on reproductive investment, and also on individual body size and condition that in turn may affect reproductive investment. We confirmed that the reproductive investment was highly size-dependent for both sexes. Larger females invested more in offspring production, and larger males attended the chorus in the pond more often. Our results did not provide evidence for a decline in body size, condition and reproductive effort with decreased multilocus heterozygosity both within and among populations. We showed that the lack of heterozygosity-fitness correlations within populations probably resulted from low inbreeding levels (inferior to ca. 20% full-sib mating rate), even in the small fragmented populations. The detrimental effects of fixation load were either low in adults or hidden by environmental variation among populations. These findings will be useful to design specific management actions to improve population persistence.

Nitrogen symbiotically fixed by cowpea and gliricidia in traditional and agroforestry systems under semiarid conditions

The objective of this work was to estimate the amounts of N fixed by cowpea in a traditional system and by cowpea and gliricidia in an agroforestry system in the Brazilian Northeast semiarid. The experiment was carried out in a randomized complete block design, in a split-plot arrangement, with four replicates, in the semiarid region of the state of Paraíba, Brazil. Plots consisted of agroforestry and traditional systems (no trees), and split-plots of the three crops planted between the tree rows in the agroforestry system. To estimate N fixation, plant samples were collected in the fourth growth cycle of the perennial species and in the fourth planting cycle of the annual species. In the agroforestry system with buffel grass and prickly-pear cactus, gliricidia plants symbiotically fix high proportions of N (>50%) and contribute with higher N amounts (40 kg ha-1 in leaves) than in the traditional system (11 kg ha-1 in grain and 18 kg ha-1 in straw). In the agroforestry system with maize and cowpea, gliricidia plants do not fix nitrogen, and N input is limited to the fixation by cowpea (2.7 kg ha-1), which is lower than in the traditional system due to its lower biomass production.

Computer-aided volume measurement of posttraumatic orbits reconstructed with AO titanium mesh plates: accuracy and reliability

PURPOSE: To prospectively evaluate the accuracy and reliability of "freehand" posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction with AO (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Osteosynthese) titanium mesh plates by using computer-aided volumetric measurement of the bony orbits. METHODS: Bony orbital volume was measured in 12 patients from coronal CT scan slices using OsiriX Medical Image software. After defining the volumetric limits of the orbit, the segmentation of the bony orbital region of interest of each single slice was performed. At the end of the segmentation process, all regions of interest were grouped and the volume was computed. The same procedure was performed on both orbits, and thereafter the volume of the contralateral uninjured orbit was used as a control for comparison. RESULTS: In all patients, the volume data of the reconstructed orbit fitted that of the contralateral uninjured orbit with accuracy to within 1.85 cm3 (7%). CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary study has demonstrated that posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction using "freehand" bending and placement of AO titanium mesh plates results in a high success rate in re-establishing preoperative bony volume, which closely approximates that of the contralateral uninjured orbit.

Exploration of the visual system: Part 1: Dissection of the mouse eye for RNA, protein, and histological analyses

Due to the power of genetics, the mouse has become a widely used animal model in vision research. However, its eyeball has an axial length of only about 2 mm. The present protocol describes how to easily dissect the small rodent eye post mortem. This allows collecting different tissues of the eye, i.e., cornea, lens, iris, retina, optic nerve, retinal pigment epithelium (RPE), and sclera. We further describe in detail how to process these eye samples in order to obtain high‐quality RNA for RNA expression profiling studies. Depending on the eye tissue to be analyzed, we present appropriate lysis buffers to prepare total protein lysates for immunoblot and immuno‐precipitation analyses. Fixation, inclusion, embedding, and cryosectioning of the globe for routine histological analyses (HE staining, DAPI staining, immunohistochemistry, in situ hybridization) is further presented. These basic protocols should allow novice investigators to obtain eye tissue samples rapidly for their experiments.

Fractures atypiques du fémur: A propos de trois cas cliniques [Atypical fractures of the femur: apropos of 3 clinical cases].

Osteoporosis is an increasing public health problem. The bisphophonates are the most useful treatment used through the world to prevent osteoporotic fractures. Their large prescription revealed an unpredictable side effect: the atypical fracture. These fractures appear in the subtrochanteric or diaphysal femoral proximal site, spontaneously or after a low trauma, and could be bilateral. X-rays shows a transversal or oblique fracture with a spur in the cortex and with a diffuse thickening of the cortical of the proximal femur. Expert's recommendations are current in progress to well understand and managed this problem. Here we report three cases of atypical femur fractures occurred in our Centre of bone diseases with some management and treatment propositions.

Direct mapping of 19F in 19FDG-6P in brain tissue at subcellular resolution using soft X-ray fluorescence

Low energy x-ray fluorescence (LEXRF) detection was optimized for imaging cerebral glucose metabolism by mapping the fluorine LEXRF signal of 19 F in 19 FDG, trapped as intracellular 19 F-deoxyglucose-6-phosphate ( 19 FDG-6P) at 1μm spatial resolution from 3μm thick brain slices. 19 FDG metabolism was evaluated in brain structures closely resembling the general cerebral cytoarchitecture following formalin fixation of brain slices and their inclusion in an epon matrix. 2-dimensional distribution maps of 19 FDG-6P were placed in a cytoarchitectural and morphological context by simultaneous LEXRF mapping of N and O, and scanning transmission x-ray (STXM) imaging. A disproportionately high uptake and metabolism of glucose was found in neuropil relative to intracellular domains of the cell body of hypothalamic neurons, showing directly that neurons, like glial cells, also metabolize glucose. As 19 F-deoxyglucose-6P is structurally identical to 18 F-deoxyglucose-6P, LEXRF of subcellular 19 F provides a link to in vivo 18 FDG PET, forming a novel basis for understanding the physiological mechanisms underlying the 18 FDG PET image, and the contribution of neurons and glia to the PET signal.

Outcome after proximal femoral fractures during primary total hip replacement by the direct anterior approach.

BACKGROUND: The literature suggests that intraoperative fractures of the greater trochanter and the metaphysis are increased with uncemented stems and the direct anterior approach. This study aims to determine the incidence and assess the functional and radiological outcome after such fractures. METHODS: 484 consecutive total hip replacements (THR) (64 ± 12 years) were analyzed. We treated trochanteric fractures conservatively without any further denuding, and secured metaphyseal fissures with cerclages. Postoperative X-rays and at the latest follow-up were compared to assess secondary fracture displacement and stem subsidence. Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) scores after 1 year were analyzed. For each patient sustaining a fracture, two patients without fractures were matched in terms of age, body mass index and gender. RESULTS: 13 (2.7 %, 5 male, 68 ± 9 years) patients with intraoperative fractures of the greater trochanter (n = 8) or the metaphysis (n = 5) were analyzed. Consolidation was observed in 7/8 patients sustaining a trochanteric fracture while secondary displacement of the fragment occurred in one case. Stem subsidence was observed in 2/5 cases (5 and 7 mm). Patients who sustained a fracture showed a trend towards poorer WOMAC scores at 1 year postoperatively, compared to patients without fractures. A significantly increased joint stiffness was also observed. CONCLUSION: The intraoperative fracture risk in this series of THR through a direct anterior approach was 2.7 %. Trochanteric fractures do heal without primary fixation. Metaphyseal fractures heal well if immediately stabilized with a cerclage.

Laboratory diagnosis of brucellosis in a rural endemic area in northeastern Spain

Sera obtained from 62 patients from four mountain counties in Catalonia (Northeastern Spain), in whom brucellosis had been diagnosed on the basis of clinical evidence and/or personal history, were analyzed using the rose Bengal test, standard serum agglutination test (SAT), Coombs" test, ELISA, and complement fixation. The diagnosis was further confirmed through blood cultures. Clinical evidence, epidemiology, and the results from serologic tests were used to assign patients to one of two groups: group 1 (n = 38) patients had primary infections, whereas group 2 (n = 24) patients had been previously exposed to the microorganism, i.e. re-infection of group 2 individuals occurred after long periods of time during which no active infection by Brucella had been detected. Receivingoperating charts (ROC) were used to determine the diagnostic value of the different tests and to establish discriminant values. Blood culture was a valuable diagnostic tool in group 1 (0.92 sensitivity) but was inappropriate in group 2 (0.08). The combination of positive rose Bengal test and agglutination ≥1/160 was valid for diagnosis in group 1. In group 2, agglutination < 1/160 (including negative agglutination) did not rule out brucellosis. The combination of positive rose Bengal test and Coombs" test ≥1/320 was the best diagnostic criterion (0.8 specificity; 1 sensitivity). ELISA (for IgG, IgM, or both) did not improve diagnostic accuracy

Clinical and laboratory predictors of imported malaria in an outpatient setting: an aid to medical decision making in returning travellers with fever

Si le tableau clinique évoque une malaria et que le résultat des examens parasitologiques n?est pas disponible ou est négatif, le praticien n?a pas d?information basée sur l?évidence pour savoir s?il doit donner ou non un traitement présomptif. Afin d?identifier les facteurs cliniques et paracliniques prédictifs d?une parasitémie à Plasmodium, nous avons mené une étude prospective chez les voyageurs ou migrants en provenance d?une zone tropicale ou subtropicale et qui consultaient pour de la fièvre. Le questionnaire comprenait 49 items explorant les données démographiques, les caractéristiques du voyage, les éléments de l?anamnèse et de l?examen clinique ainsi que les résultats de laboratoire. 336 sujets avec données complètes ont été recrutés (97 patients atteints de malaria et 239 contrôles avec fièvre et examen parasitologique négatif). L?analyse de régression multivariée a permis d?identifier les facteurs prédictifs de maiaria suivants : prophylaxie inadéquate, sudations, absence de douleur abdominale, température )38"C, mauvais état général, splénomégalie, compte leucocytaire (1 O x 1 03/L, plaquettes ~ 1 5 0 x l 03/L, taux d?hémoglobine <12 g/dL et éosinophiles (5%. La présence d?une splénomégalie avait le coefficient de probabilité positif pour un diagnostic de malaria le plus élevé (1 3.6) ; venait ensuite la présence d?une thrombopénie (1 1 .O). Dans le contexte de la consultation ambulatoire de la Policlinique Médicale Universitaire (prévalence de malaria de 29%), la probabilité post- test d?avoir un examen parasitologique positif était de 85% pour la splénomégalie et de 82% pour la thrombopénie. Même si le seuil thérapeutique n?est pas absolument défini, il semble raisonnable d?envisager un traitement présomptif lorsque la probabilité post- test est >80%. Si le médecin est réticent à administrer un traitement sans documentation parasitologique, il devrait au moins se retenir d?entreprendre d?autres investigations coûteuses, et plutôt répéter l?examen parasitologique après 12-24 heures.

Impact des maladies rhumatismales sur la population âgée en Suisse et sa consommation de soins

Les maladies rhumatismales sont fréquemment observées chez les personnes âgées et ont un impact considérable sur la qualité de vie des personnes en souffrant. Peu d'études suisses sur la situation épidémiologique et sur l'impact de ce type de maladies sur la consommation des services de santé existent. Cette thèse a pour but d'étudier les connaissances actuelles à partir de la littérature suisse et étrangère et d'établir un bilan en Suisse au moyen d'une enquête de population effectuée en 1997. Une revue systématique de littérature a été effectuée. En dépit d'une grande variété des approches méthodologiques rendant délicates les comparaisons géographiques et temporelles, la prévalence des maladies rhumatismales chez les personnes de 65 ans et plus semble être homogène entre pays et stable temporellement. particulièrement dès 1980. Celle-ci est élevée et augmente rapidement avec le très grand âge. De plus, les femmes sont plus fréquemment atteintes que les hommes. Notre revue montre que le recours aux soins ambulatoires (médecins, chiropraticiens, traitements ambulatoires des hôpitaux) lié aux maladies rhumatismales est important. L'impact de ces maladies sur les hospitalisations est, par contre, moins clairement établi. Les nouvelles générations de personnes en souffrant semblent avoir plus recours aux services de santé que les précédentes. Ces maladies sont aussi à l'origine d'une forte consommation d'anti-inflammatoires non-stéroïdiens avec comme conséquence une multitude de complications. En dépit de son efficacité et de son utilité, le recours à l'arthroplastie est sous- utilisé. Notre analyse se base sur une enquête réalisée auprès d'un échantillon représentatif des individus âgés de 15 ans et plus résidant de manière permanente en Suisse en 1997 : la prévalence des maladies rhumatismales en Suisse s'élève à 41 % chez les personnes âgées de 65 ans et plus, dont 48 % chez les femmes et 31 % chez les hommes. Ces prévalences sont inférieures à celles relevées dans la littérature probablement en raison de notre définition relativement restrictive des maladies rhumatismales. Ces dernières augmentent de 50 % le nombre attendu de consultations chez un médecin ou un chiropraticien et de 30 % le nombre attendu d'hospitalisations. Les personnes souffrantes ont. en outre, une probabilité de recours aux services de Soins à domicile 1,7 fois plus élevé que les autres. Aucun impact sur le nombre de traitements ambulatoires en milieu hospitalier n'a été trouvé. Nos résultats sont comparables à ceux relevés dans la littérature internationale et suisse, sauf pour les traitements ambulatoires des hôpitaux. En 1990, sur les 983'400 personnes de 65 ans et plus (recensement fédéral de la population de 1990), 403'200 personnes souffraient de maladies rhumatismales. Quelque 5'334'900 consultations chez un médecin ou un chiropraticien, 4'959'300 consultations chez un médecin et 216'800 hospitalisations étaient imputables aux personnes de 65 ans et plus toutes causes de consultations confondues, dont 1'008'000 consultations chez un médecin/chiropraticien, 927'300 chez un médecin et 98'500 hospitalisations imputables aux maladies rhumatismales. Selon ie scénario (( tendance )) des projections démographiques publiées par l'Office Fédéral de la Statistique. d'ici 2040, le nombre de personnes souffrant de maladies rhumatismales en Suisse risque d'augmenter de 80 % (en supposant que la prévalence reste stable), affectant 726'500 sur 1'772'000 personnes de 65 ans et plus. Cette augmentation est la conséquence de l'accroissement prévu de la population de 65 ans et plus dans la population générale. Le nombre global de consultatiordhospitalisations risque d'augmenter dans les mêmes proportions si le recours aux services de santé reste stable. En effet. en 2040, quelque 9'613'100 consultations chez un médecinichiropraticien, 8'936'200 consultations chez un médecin et 390'700 hospitalisations pourraient être imputables aux personnes de 65 ans et plus. dont 1'8 16'300 consultations chez un médecin/chiropraticien, 1'67 1'000 consultations chez un médecin et 1 90'600 hospitalisations en raison de maladies rhumatismales. Une légère diminution du nombre de personnes atteintes de maladies rhumatismales. ainsi que du recours aux services de santé engendré par ces maladies. est attendue dès 3040. Le nombre de personnes souffrant de maladies rhumatismales et le nombre de consultations/ hospitalisations associées risquant d'augmenter de façon considérable, il est nécessaire de freiner cette progression. Des mesures préventives primaires, secondaires ou tertiaires peuvent diminuer la prévalence des maladies rhumatismales et l'impact de celles-ci sur la consommation des services de santé.<br/><br/>Rheumatic diseases are frequently observed in elderly people and have an important impact on tlieir life qurlity. There are fe1.v Swiss stuciies on the epiciemio!ogica! situttien and on the impact of such diseases on the use of health services. This thesis aims at studying the current knowledge based on Swiss and international literature and at establishing the situation in Switzerland from a population survey conducted in 1997. A systeinatic literature review lias been carried out. Despite a large range of methods making a comparisoii diffcult, the prevalence of rheumatic diseases seems to be homogeneous in different countries and stable. especially since 1980. It is high and increases rapidly with age. Furthermore, \niorneil suffer more frequently thaii men. Our review shows that the use of ambulatory care linked to rheumatic diseases is important. On the contrary, the impact of such diseases on hospitalization is less clearly established. New generations seem to consult more. Rheumatic diseases are also at the origin of a strong consumptioii of non-steroidal anti- inflammatory drugs \vitIl potential severe consequences. Despite its effectiveness and efficiency, arthroplasty is underused. Our analysis is based 011 a survey of Swiss permanent residents aged 15 or more in 1997. Based on Our analysis, the prevalence of rheumatic diseases in Switzerland is 41 % for elderly people (48 96 for women and 31 % for men). Theses prevalences are smaller than those found in the literature because of our relatively strict definition of rheumatic diseases. The latter diseases increase of about 50 o/o the expected number of consultations (chiropractor included or not) and of about 30 960 the expected number of hospitalizations. The affected persons have a probability of home care use 1.7 times higlier than the others. No impact on the number of outpatient care provided by hospitals has been found. Our results are comparable to those found in the international and Swiss literature, except for hospital outpatient care. In 1990, of 983,400 perçons aged 65 and older, 403,200 persons suffered from rheumatic diseases. 5,334,900 consultations by a physician or a chiropractor, 4,959,300 consultations by a physician and 2 16,800 hospitalizations were attributed to the elderly whatever, the reason of consultation, of which 1,008,000 consultations by a physicianlchiropractor, 927,300 by a physician, and 98,500 hospitalizations are due to rheumatic diseases. According to the "tendance" scenario of demographic projections published by the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics, until 2040 the number of persons suffering from rheumatic diseases will increase of 80 % if the prevalence stays stable, affecting 736,500 of 1,772,000 perçons of 65 and older. This increase is due to the increase of the percentage of persons 65 and older in the population. The global number of consultationshospitalizations will increase similarly if the use of health services stays stable. In 2040, 9,613,l 00 consultations by a physiciaidchiropractor, 8,936,200 Consultations by a physician and 390,700 hospitalizations could be attributed to the persons aged 65 and older, of which 1,816,300 consultations by a physician, 1,671,000 consultations by a physician/chiropractor and 109,600 hospitalizations will be due to the rheumatic diseases. However a small decrease of the number of affected perçons and of the subsequent use of health services is expected after 2040. The number of affected elderly people and the volume of conçultations/hospitalizations are expected to increase and it ir necessx-y to slow down this progression. Preventive interventions, primary, secondary or tertiary, can decrease the prevalence of rheumatic diseases and the impaci on the consumption of health services.