Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Active transmission of human chagas disease in Colima Mexico

Despite efforts to eradicate American trypanosomiasis (AT) and Chagas disease from the Americas, there are still areas of active transmission that can eventually become a source of reinfection in previously controlled regions. Mexico could be one of those areas, where there are no formal preventive control programs despite the presence of communities infested by Triatominae bugs infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. This study explored the prevalence of T. cruzi infection in 405 habitants of 17 communities in the state of Colima, on the Pacific Mexican coast, through a seroepidemiological probabilistic survey. The results revealed a point seroprevalence of 2.4% positive for anti-T. cruzi. In addition, 2 clinical cases of chronic and 2 of acute Chagas disease were detected in the explored communities. These findings confirm the risk of active transmission of AT in Western Mexico, especially in rural and suburban communities infested with intra-domestic triatominae, where control programs should be implemented.

Mètriques de productivitat de programari per a la gestió de projectes

En aquest document s'introdueixen els conceptes bàsics necessaris per a l'execució de mètriques de productivitat de programari. Després de la introducció, s'estudien amb detall les mètriques de productivitat més emprades actualment, que són línies de codi (mètrica orientada a les dimensions del projecte), punts de funció (orientada a la funcionalitat del projecte, específica per a projectes de gestió), punts de característica (semblant a punts de funció, però més genèrica i útil per a altres tipus de projectes) i punts de casos d'ús (també orientada a la funció i específica per a projectes d'orientació a objectes). S'hi explica com es pot aconseguir, a partir d'aquestes mètriques i amb l'ajut de models d'estimació de productivitat, com ara el model COCOMO II, les estimacions de l'esforç necessari per a desenvolupar un projecte de programari i la distribució de l'esforç en totes les etapes del projecte a partir de les estimacions de la fase de desenvolupament. També es tracta, encara que no amb tanta profunditat, de la mètrica

Decoupled post-glacial history in mutualistic plant-insect interactions: insights from the yellow loosestrife (Lysimachia vulgaris) and its associated oil-collecting bees (Macropis europaea and M-fulvipes)

AimWe take a comparative phylogeographical approach to assess whether three species involved in a specialized oil-rewarding pollination system (i.e. Lysimachia vulgaris and two oil-collecting bees within the genus Macropis) show congruent phylogeographical trajectories during post-glacial colonization processes. Our working hypothesis is that within specialized mutualistic interactions, where each species relies on the co-occurrence of the other for survival and/or reproduction, partners are expected to show congruent evolutionary trajectories, because they are likely to have followed parallel migration routes and to have shared glacial refugia. LocationWestern Palaearctic. MethodsOur analysis relies on the extensive sampling of 104 Western Palaearctic populations (totalling 434, 159 and 74 specimens of Lysimachiavulgaris, Macropiseuropaea and Macropisfulvipes, respectively), genotyped with amplified fragment length polymorphism. Based on this, we evaluated the regional genetic diversity (Shannon diversity and allele rarity index) and genetic structure (assessed using structure, population networks, isolation-by-distance and spatial autocorrelation metrics) of each species. Finally, we compared the general phylogeographical patterns obtained. ResultsContrary to our expectations, the analyses revealed phylogeographical signals suggesting that the investigated organisms demonstrate independent post-glacial trajectories as well as distinct contemporaneous demographic parameters, despite their mutualistic interaction. Main conclusionsThe mutualistic partners investigated here are likely to be experiencing distinct and independent evolutionary dynamics because of their contrasting life-history traits (e.g. dispersal abilities), as well as distinct hubs and migration routes. Such conditions would prevent and/or erase any signature of co-structuring of lineages in space and time. As a result, the lack of phylogeographical congruence driven by differences in life-history traits might have arisen irrespective of the three species having shared similar Pleistocene glacial refugia.

Indexes and boundaries for "quantitative significance" in statistical decisions.

Boundaries for delta, representing a "quantitatively significant" or "substantively impressive" distinction, have not been established, analogous to the boundary of alpha, usually set at 0.05, for the stochastic or probabilistic component of "statistical significance". To determine what boundaries are being used for the "quantitative" decisions, we reviewed pertinent articles in three general medical journals. For each contrast of two means, contrast of two rates, or correlation coefficient, we noted the investigators' decisions about stochastic significance, stated in P values or confidence intervals, and about quantitative significance, indicated by interpretive comments. The boundaries between impressive and unimpressive distinctions were best formed by a ratio of greater than or equal to 1.2 for the smaller to the larger mean in 546 comparisons, by a standardized increment of greater than or equal to 0.28 and odds ratio of greater than or equal to 2.2 in 392 comparisons of two rates; and by an r value of greater than or equal to 0.32 in 154 correlation coefficients. Additional boundaries were also identified for "substantially" and "highly" significant quantitative distinctions. Although the proposed boundaries should be kept flexible, indexes and boundaries for decisions about "quantitative significance" are particularly useful when a value of delta must be chosen for calculating sample size before the research is done, and when the "statistical significance" of completed research is appraised for its quantitative as well as stochastic components.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Contrasted influences of moon phases on the reproduction and movement patterns of four amphibian species inhabiting different habitats in central Italy

Many studies have provided evidence that prey adjust their behaviour to adaptively balance the fitness effects of reproduction and predation risk. Nocturnal terrestrial animals should deal with a range of environmental conditions during the reproductive season at the breeding sites, including a variable amount of natural ambient light. High degrees of illumination are expected to minimize those behaviours that might increase the animal detection by predators. Therefore, under habitat variable brightness conditions and in different ecosystems, the above mentioned behaviours are expected to depend on the variation in predation risk. Although moon effects on amphibian biology have been recognized, the direction of this influence is rather controversial with evidences of both increased and depressed activity under full moon. We tested in four nocturnal amphibian species (Hyla intermedia, Rana dalmatina, Rana italica, Salamandrina perspicillata) the effects of different (i) light conditions and (ii) habitats (open land vs. dense forest) on the reproductive phenology. Our results showed that the effects of the lunar cycle on the study species are associated with the change in luminosity, and there is no evidence of an endogenous rhythm controlled by biological clocks. The habitat type conditioned the amphibian reproductive strategy in relation to moon phases. Open habitat breeders (e. g., ponds with no canopy cover) strongly avoided conditions with high brightness, whereas forest habitat breeders were apparently unaffected by the different moon phases. Indeed, for all the studied species no effects of the moon phase itself on the considered metrics were found. Rather, the considered amphibian species seem to be conditioned mainly by moonlight irrespective of the moon phase. The two anurans spawning in open habitat apparently adjust their oviposition timing by balancing the fitness effects of the risk to be detected by predators and the reproduction.

Asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection in Tierralta, Colombia

With the aim of determining the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection by thick smear and PCR and its association with demographic and epidemiological characteristics in the village of Nuevo Tay, Tierralta, Córdoba, Colombia, a cross-sectional population study was carried out, using random probabilistic sampling. Venous blood samples were taken from 212 people on day 0 for thick smear and PCR. Clinical follow-up and thick smears were carried out on days 14 and 28. The prevalence of Plasmodium spp. infection was 17.9% (38/212; 95% CI: 12.5-23.3%) and the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodiumspp. infection was 14.6% (31/212; 95% CI: 9.6-19.6%). Plasmodium vivax was found more frequently (20/31; 64.5%) than Plasmodium falciparum (9/31; 29%) and mixed infections (2/31; 6.5%). A significantly higher prevalence of asymptomatic infection was found in men (19.30%) than in women (9.18%) (prevalence ratio: 2.10; 95% CI: 1.01-4.34%; p = 0.02). People who developed symptoms had a significantly higher parasitemia on day 0 than those who remained asymptomatic, of 1,881.5 ± 3,759 versus 79 ± 106.9 (p = 0.008). PCR detected 50% more infections than the thick smears. The presence of asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection highlights the importance of carrying out active searches amongst asymptomatic populations residing in endemic areas.

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis andovertreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were:age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population usedmammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis.Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively.Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools

Revisiting the compositional data. Some fundamental questions and new prospects in Archaeometry and Archaeology

In this paper we examine the problem of compositional data from a different startingpoint. Chemical compositional data, as used in provenance studies on archaeologicalmaterials, will be approached from the measurement theory. The results will show, in avery intuitive way that chemical data can only be treated by using the approachdeveloped for compositional data. It will be shown that compositional data analysis is aparticular case in projective geometry, when the projective coordinates are in thepositive orthant, and they have the properties of logarithmic interval metrics. Moreover,it will be shown that this approach can be extended to a very large number ofapplications, including shape analysis. This will be exemplified with a case study inarchitecture of Early Christian churches dated back to the 5th-7th centuries AD

A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Scene Classification Using a Hybrid Generative/Discriminative Approach

We investigate whether dimensionality reduction using a latent generative model is beneficial for the task of weakly supervised scene classification. In detail, we are given a set of labeled images of scenes (for example, coast, forest, city, river, etc.), and our objective is to classify a new image into one of these categories. Our approach consists of first discovering latent ";topics"; using probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (pLSA), a generative model from the statistical text literature here applied to a bag of visual words representation for each image, and subsequently, training a multiway classifier on the topic distribution vector for each image. We compare this approach to that of representing each image by a bag of visual words vector directly and training a multiway classifier on these vectors. To this end, we introduce a novel vocabulary using dense color SIFT descriptors and then investigate the classification performance under changes in the size of the visual vocabulary, the number of latent topics learned, and the type of discriminative classifier used (k-nearest neighbor or SVM). We achieve superior classification performance to recent publications that have used a bag of visual word representation, in all cases, using the authors' own data sets and testing protocols. We also investigate the gain in adding spatial information. We show applications to image retrieval with relevance feedback and to scene classification in videos

Visuo-motor and cognitive procedural learning in children with basal ganglia pathology.

We investigated procedural learning in 18 children with basal ganglia (BG) lesions or dysfunctions of various aetiologies, using a visuo-motor learning test, the Serial Reaction Time (SRT) task, and a cognitive learning test, the Probabilistic Classification Learning (PCL) task. We compared patients with early (<1 year old, n=9), later onset (>6 years old, n=7) or progressive disorder (idiopathic dystonia, n=2). All patients showed deficits in both visuo-motor and cognitive domains, except those with idiopathic dystonia, who displayed preserved classification learning skills. Impairments seem to be independent from the age of onset of pathology. As far as we know, this study is the first to investigate motor and cognitive procedural learning in children with BG damage. Procedural impairments were documented whatever the aetiology of the BG damage/dysfunction and time of pathology onset, thus supporting the claim of very early skill learning development and lack of plasticity in case of damage.

Total hemoglobin mass--a new parameter to detect blood doping?

PURPOSE: All kinds of blood manipulations aim to increase the total hemoglobin mass (tHb-mass). To establish tHb-mass as an effective screening parameter for detecting blood doping, the knowledge of its normal variation over time is necessary. The aim of the present study, therefore, was to determine the intraindividual variance of tHb-mass in elite athletes during a training year emphasizing off, training, and race seasons at sea level. METHODS: tHb-mass and hemoglobin concentration ([Hb]) were determined in 24 endurance athletes five times during a year and were compared with a control group (n = 6). An analysis of covariance was used to test the effects of training phases, age, gender, competition level, body mass, and training volume. Three error models, based on 1) a total percentage error of measurement, 2) the combination of a typical percentage error (TE) of analytical origin with an absolute SD of biological origin, and 3) between-subject and within-subject variance components as obtained by an analysis of variance, were tested. RESULTS: In addition to the expected influence of performance status, the main results were that the effects of training volume (P = 0.20) and training phases (P = 0.81) on tHb-mass were not significant. We found that within-subject variations mainly have an analytical origin (TE approximately 1.4%) and a very small SD (7.5 g) of biological origin. CONCLUSION: tHb-mass shows very low individual oscillations during a training year (<6%), and these oscillations are below the expected changes in tHb-mass due to Herythropoetin (EPO) application or blood infusion (approximately 10%). The high stability of tHb-mass over a period of 1 year suggests that it should be included in an athlete's biological passport and analyzed by recently developed probabilistic inference techniques that define subject-based reference ranges.

Conceptual framework and pilot study to benchmark phylogenomic databases based on reference gene trees.

Phylogenomic databases provide orthology predictions for species with fully sequenced genomes. Although the goal seems well-defined, the content of these databases differs greatly. Seven ortholog databases (Ensembl Compara, eggNOG, HOGENOM, InParanoid, OMA, OrthoDB, Panther) were compared on the basis of reference trees. For three well-conserved protein families, we observed a generally high specificity of orthology assignments for these databases. We show that differences in the completeness of predicted gene relationships and in the phylogenetic information are, for the great majority, not due to the methods used, but to differences in the underlying database concepts. According to our metrics, none of the databases provides a fully correct and comprehensive protein classification. Our results provide a framework for meaningful and systematic comparisons of phylogenomic databases. In the future, a sustainable set of 'Gold standard' phylogenetic trees could provide a robust method for phylogenomic databases to assess their current quality status, measure changes following new database releases and diagnose improvements subsequent to an upgrade of the analysis procedure.