Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.

Bayesian Learning with Dependency Structures via Latent Factors, Mixtures, and Copulas

Bayesian methods offer a flexible and convenient probabilistic learning framework to extract interpretable knowledge from complex and structured data. Such methods can characterize dependencies among multiple levels of hidden variables and share statistical strength across heterogeneous sources. In the first part of this dissertation, we develop two dependent variational inference methods for full posterior approximation in non-conjugate Bayesian models through hierarchical mixture- and copula-based variational proposals, respectively. The proposed methods move beyond the widely used factorized approximation to the posterior and provide generic applicability to a broad class of probabilistic models with minimal model-specific derivations. In the second part of this dissertation, we design probabilistic graphical models to accommodate multimodal data, describe dynamical behaviors and account for task heterogeneity. In particular, the sparse latent factor model is able to reveal common low-dimensional structures from high-dimensional data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed statistical learning methods on both synthetic and real-world data.

On the Advancement of Probabilistic Models of Decompression Sickness

The work presented in this dissertation is focused on applying engineering methods to develop and explore probabilistic survival models for the prediction of decompression sickness in US NAVY divers. Mathematical modeling, computational model development, and numerical optimization techniques were employed to formulate and evaluate the predictive quality of models fitted to empirical data. In Chapters 1 and 2 we present general background information relevant to the development of probabilistic models applied to predicting the incidence of decompression sickness. The remainder of the dissertation introduces techniques developed in an effort to improve the predictive quality of probabilistic decompression models and to reduce the difficulty of model parameter optimization.

The first project explored seventeen variations of the hazard function using a well-perfused parallel compartment model. Models were parametrically optimized using the maximum likelihood technique. Model performance was evaluated using both classical statistical methods and model selection techniques based on information theory. Optimized model parameters were overall similar to those of previously published Results indicated that a novel hazard function definition that included both ambient pressure scaling and individually fitted compartment exponent scaling terms.

We developed ten pharmacokinetic compartmental models that included explicit delay mechanics to determine if predictive quality could be improved through the inclusion of material transfer lags. A fitted discrete delay parameter augmented the inflow to the compartment systems from the environment. Based on the observation that symptoms are often reported after risk accumulation begins for many of our models, we hypothesized that the inclusion of delays might improve correlation between the model predictions and observed data. Model selection techniques identified two models as having the best overall performance, but comparison to the best performing model without delay and model selection using our best identified no delay pharmacokinetic model both indicated that the delay mechanism was not statistically justified and did not substantially improve model predictions.

Our final investigation explored parameter bounding techniques to identify parameter regions for which statistical model failure will not occur. When a model predicts a no probability of a diver experiencing decompression sickness for an exposure that is known to produce symptoms, statistical model failure occurs. Using a metric related to the instantaneous risk, we successfully identify regions where model failure will not occur and identify the boundaries of the region using a root bounding technique. Several models are used to demonstrate the techniques, which may be employed to reduce the difficulty of model optimization for future investigations.

Adherence to latent tuberculosis treatment among immigrants in low endemic settings : a scoping review

Contexte : En dépit du fait que la tuberculose est un problème de santé publique important dans les pays en voie de développement, les pays occidentaux doivent faire face à des taux d'infection important chez certaines populations immigrantes. Le risque de développer la TB active est 10% plus élevé chez les personnes atteintes de TB latente si elles ne reçoivent pas de traitement adéquat. La détection et le traitement opportun de la TB latente sont non seulement nécessaires pour préserver la santé de l'individu atteint mais aussi pour réduire le fardeau socio- économique et sanitaire du pays hôte. Les taux d'observance des traitements préventifs de TB latente sont faibles et une solution efficace à ce problème est requise pour contrôler la prévalence de l'infection. L'objectif de ce mémoire est d'identifier les facteurs qui contribuent à l'observance thérapeutique des traitements de TB latente auprès de nouveaux arrivants dans les pays occidentaux où les taux endémiques sont faibles. Méthodologie : Une revue systématique a été effectuée à partir de bases de données et répertoires scientifiques reconnus tels Medline, Medline in Process, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing, le CINAHL et la librairie Cochrane pour en citer quelques un. Les études recensées ont été publiées après 1997 en français, en anglais, conduites auprès de populations immigrantes de l'occident (Canada, Etats-Unis, Europe, Royaume-Uni, Australie et la Nouvelle Zélande) dont le statut socio-économique est homogène. Résultats : Au total, neuf (9) études réalisées aux Etats-Unis sur des immigrants originaires de différents pays où la TB est endémique ont été analysées: deux (2) études qualitatives ethnographiques, six (6) quantitatives observationnelles et une (1) quantitative interventionnelle. Les facteurs sociodémographiques, les caractéristiques individuelles, familiales, ainsi que des déterminants liés à l'accès et à la prestation des services et soins de santé, ont été analysés pour identifier des facteurs d'observance thérapeutique. L'âge, le nombre d'années passées dans le pays hôte, le sexe, le statut civil, l'emploi, le pays d'origine, le soutien familiale et les effets secondaires et indésirables du traitement de la TB ne sont pas des facteurs ii déterminants de l'adhésion au traitement préventif. Toutefois, l’accès à l'information et de l'éducation adaptées aux langues et cultures des populations immigrantes, sur la TB et des objectifs de traitement explicites, l'offre de plan de traitement plus court et mieux tolérés, un environnement stable, un encadrement et l'adhésion au suivi médical par des prestataires motivés ont émergés comme des déterminants d'observance thérapeutique. Conclusion et recommandation : Le manque d'observance thérapeutique du traitement de la TB latente (LTBI) par des populations immigrantes, qui sont déjà aux prises avec des difficultés d'intégration, de communication et économique, est un facteur de risque pour les pays occidentaux où les taux endémiques de TB sont faibles. Les résultats de notre étude suggèrent que des interventions adaptées, un suivi individuel, un encadrement clinique et des plans de traitement plus courts, peuvent grandement améliorer les taux d'observance et d'adhésion aux traitements préventifs, devenant ainsi un investissement pertinent pour les pays hôtes.

Karst hazard analysis towards the development of predictive karst models for southern Ontario

An investigation into karst hazard in southern Ontario has been undertaken with the intention of leading to the development of predictive karst models for this region. The reason these are not currently feasible is a lack of sufficient karst data, though this is not entirely due to the lack of karst features. Geophysical data was collected at Lake on the Mountain, Ontario as part of this karst investigation. This data was collected in order to validate the long-standing hypothesis that Lake on the Mountain was formed from a sinkhole collapse. Sub-bottom acoustic profiling data was collected in order to image the lake bottom sediments and bedrock. Vertical bedrock features interpreted as solutionally enlarged fractures were taken as evidence for karst processes on the lake bottom. Additionally, the bedrock topography shows a narrower and more elongated basin than was previously identified, and this also lies parallel to a mapped fault system in the area. This suggests that Lake on the Mountain was formed over a fault zone which also supports the sinkhole hypothesis as it would provide groundwater pathways for karst dissolution to occur. Previous sediment cores suggest that Lake on the Mountain would have formed at some point during the Wisconsinan glaciation with glacial meltwater and glacial loading as potential contributing factors to sinkhole development. A probabilistic karst model for the state of Kentucky, USA, has been generated using the Weights of Evidence method. This model is presented as an example of the predictive capabilities of these kind of data-driven modelling techniques and to show how such models could be applied to karst in Ontario. The model was able to classify 70% of the validation dataset correctly while minimizing false positive identifications. This is moderately successful and could stand to be improved. Finally, suggestions to improving the current karst model of southern Ontario are suggested with the goal of increasing investigation into karst in Ontario and streamlining the reporting system for sinkholes, caves, and other karst features so as to improve the current Ontario karst database.

D6.3 – Semantic Content Annotation Support

The Semantic Annotation component is a software application that provides support for automated text classification, a process grounded in a cohesion-centered representation of discourse that facilitates topic extraction. The component enables the semantic meta-annotation of text resources, including automated classification, thus facilitating information retrieval within the RAGE ecosystem. It is available in the ReaderBench framework (http://readerbench.com/) which integrates advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. The component makes use of Cohesion Network Analysis (CNA) in order to ensure an in-depth representation of discourse, useful for mining keywords and performing automated text categorization. Our component automatically classifies documents into the categories provided by the ACM Computing Classification System (http://dl.acm.org/ccs_flat.cfm), but also into the categories from a high level serious games categorization provisionally developed by RAGE. English and French languages are already covered by the provided web service, whereas the entire framework can be extended in order to support additional languages.

What do people think about running barefoot/with minimalist footwear? A thematic analysis

Objectives

Barefoot running describes when individuals run without footwear. Minimalist running utilizes shoes aimed to mimic being barefoot. Although these forms of running have become increasingly popular, we still know little about how recreational runners perceive them.
Design

In-depth interviews with eight recreational runners were used to gather information about their running experiences with a focus on barefoot and minimalist running.
Methods

Interviews were analysed using a latent level thematic analysis to identify and interpret themes within the data.
Results

Although participants considered barefoot running to be ‘natural’, they also considered it to be extreme. Minimalist running did not produce such aversive reactions. ‘Support’ reassured against concerns and was seen as central in protecting vulnerable body parts and reducing impact forces, but lacked a common or clear definition. A preference for practical over academic knowledge was found. Anecdotal information was generally trusted, as were running stores with gait assessment, but not health professionals.
Conclusion

People often have inconsistent ideas about barefoot and minimalist running, which are often formed by potentially biased sources, which may lead people to make poor decisions about barefoot and minimalist running. It is important to provide high-quality information to enable better decisions to be made about barefoot and minimalist running.

Statement of contribution

What is already known on this subject?
There is no known work on the psychology behind barefoot and minimalist running. We believe our study is the first qualitative study to have investigated views of this increasingly popular form of running.
What does this study add?
The results suggest that although barefoot running is considered ‘natural’, it is also considered ‘extreme’. Minimalist running, however, did not receive such aversive reactions.
‘Support’ was a common concern among runners. Although ‘support’ reassured against concerns and was seen as central in protecting vulnerable body parts and reducing impact forces, it lacked a common or clear definition.
A preference for practical over academic knowledge was found. Anecdotal information was generally trusted, as were running stores with gait assessment, but not health professionals.

A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

Graph analysis of verbal fluency test discriminate between patients with Alzheimer’s disease, Mild Cognitive Impairment and normal elderly controls

Verbal fluency is the ability to produce a satisfying sequence of spoken words during a given time interval. The core of verbal fluency lies in the capacity to manage the executive aspects of language. The standard scores of the semantic verbal fluency test are broadly used in the neuropsychological assessment of the elderly, and different analytical methods are likely to extract even more information from the data generated in this test. Graph theory, a mathematical approach to analyze relations between items, represents a promising tool to understand a variety of neuropsychological states. This study reports a graph analysis of data generated by the semantic verbal fluency test by cognitively healthy elderly (NC), patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment – subtypes amnestic(aMCI) and amnestic multiple domain (a+mdMCI) - and patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Sequences of words were represented as a speech graph in which every word corresponded to a node and temporal links between words were represented by directed edges. To characterize the structure of the data we calculated 13 speech graph attributes (SGAs). The individuals were compared when divided in three (NC – MCI – AD) and four (NC – aMCI – a+mdMCI – AD) groups. When the three groups were compared, significant differences were found in the standard measure of correct words produced, and three SGA: diameter, average shortest path, and network density. SGA sorted the elderly groups with good specificity and sensitivity. When the four groups were compared, the groups differed significantly in network density, except between the two MCI subtypes and NC and aMCI. The diameter of the network and the average shortest path were significantly different between the NC and AD, and between aMCI and AD. SGA sorted the elderly in their groups with good specificity and sensitivity, performing better than the standard score of the task. These findings provide support for a new methodological frame to assess the strength of semantic memory through the verbal fluency task, with potential to amplify the predictive power of this test. Graph analysis is likely to become clinically relevant in neurology and psychiatry, and may be particularly useful for the differential diagnosis of the elderly.

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE ADDITION OF BEVACIZUMAB TO STANDARD CHEMOTHERAPY IN PATIENTS WITH MALIGNANT PLEURAL MESOTHELIOMA

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Bayesian nonparametric latent variable models

L’un des problèmes importants en apprentissage automatique est de déterminer la complexité du modèle à apprendre. Une trop grande complexité mène au surapprentissage, ce qui correspond à trouver des structures qui n’existent pas réellement dans les données, tandis qu’une trop faible complexité mène au sous-apprentissage, c’est-à-dire que l’expressivité du modèle est insuffisante pour capturer l’ensemble des structures présentes dans les données. Pour certains modèles probabilistes, la complexité du modèle se traduit par l’introduction d’une ou plusieurs variables cachées dont le rôle est d’expliquer le processus génératif des données. Il existe diverses approches permettant d’identifier le nombre approprié de variables cachées d’un modèle. Cette thèse s’intéresse aux méthodes Bayésiennes nonparamétriques permettant de déterminer le nombre de variables cachées à utiliser ainsi que leur dimensionnalité. La popularisation des statistiques Bayésiennes nonparamétriques au sein de la communauté de l’apprentissage automatique est assez récente. Leur principal attrait vient du fait qu’elles offrent des modèles hautement flexibles et dont la complexité s’ajuste proportionnellement à la quantité de données disponibles. Au cours des dernières années, la recherche sur les méthodes d’apprentissage Bayésiennes nonparamétriques a porté sur trois aspects principaux : la construction de nouveaux modèles, le développement d’algorithmes d’inférence et les applications. Cette thèse présente nos contributions à ces trois sujets de recherches dans le contexte d’apprentissage de modèles à variables cachées. Dans un premier temps, nous introduisons le Pitman-Yor process mixture of Gaussians, un modèle permettant l’apprentissage de mélanges infinis de Gaussiennes. Nous présentons aussi un algorithme d’inférence permettant de découvrir les composantes cachées du modèle que nous évaluons sur deux applications concrètes de robotique. Nos résultats démontrent que l’approche proposée surpasse en performance et en flexibilité les approches classiques d’apprentissage. Dans un deuxième temps, nous proposons l’extended cascading Indian buffet process, un modèle servant de distribution de probabilité a priori sur l’espace des graphes dirigés acycliques. Dans le contexte de réseaux Bayésien, ce prior permet d’identifier à la fois la présence de variables cachées et la structure du réseau parmi celles-ci. Un algorithme d’inférence Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov est utilisé pour l’évaluation sur des problèmes d’identification de structures et d’estimation de densités. Dans un dernier temps, nous proposons le Indian chefs process, un modèle plus général que l’extended cascading Indian buffet process servant à l’apprentissage de graphes et d’ordres. L’avantage du nouveau modèle est qu’il admet les connections entres les variables observables et qu’il prend en compte l’ordre des variables. Nous présentons un algorithme d’inférence Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov avec saut réversible permettant l’apprentissage conjoint de graphes et d’ordres. L’évaluation est faite sur des problèmes d’estimations de densité et de test d’indépendance. Ce modèle est le premier modèle Bayésien nonparamétrique permettant d’apprendre des réseaux Bayésiens disposant d’une structure complètement arbitraire.

The Use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Performing Alternatives Assessment and Comparative Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Codling Moth Pesticides

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Document analysis of PDF files: methods, results and implications

A strategy for document analysis is presented which uses Portable Document Format (PDF the underlying file structure for Adobe Acrobat software) as its starting point. This strategy examines the appearance and geometric position of text and image blocks distributed over an entire document. A blackboard system is used to tag the blocks as a first stage in deducing the fundamental relationships existing between them. PDF is shown to be a useful intermediate stage in the bottom-up analysis of document structure. Its information on line spacing and font usage gives important clues in bridging the semantic gap between the scanned bitmap page and its fully analysed, block-structured form. Analysis of PDF can yield not only accurate page decomposition but also sufficient document information for the later stages of structural analysis and document understanding.