A robust mechanism for strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in response to climate change: critical-layer control of subtropical wave breaking

Climate models consistently predict a strengthened Brewer–Dobson circulation in response to greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced climate change. Although the predicted circulation changes are clearly the result of changes in stratospheric wave drag, the mechanism behind the wave-drag changes remains unclear. Here, simulations from a chemistry–climate model are analyzed to show that the changes in resolved wave drag are largely explainable in terms of a simple and robust dynamical mechanism, namely changes in the location of critical layers within the subtropical lower stratosphere, which are known from observations to control the spatial distribution of Rossby wave breaking. In particular, the strengthening of the upper flanks of the subtropical jets that is robustly expected from GHG-induced tropospheric warming pushes the critical layers (and the associated regions of wave drag) upward, allowing more wave activity to penetrate into the subtropical lower stratosphere. Because the subtropics represent the critical region for wave driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, the circulation is thereby strengthened. Transient planetary-scale waves and synoptic-scale waves generated by baroclinic instability are both found to play a crucial role in this process. Changes in stationary planetary wave drag are not so important because they largely occur away from subtropical latitudes.

The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic—A Possible Mechanism

The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak period 1930–40, the annually averaged temperature anomaly for the area 60°–90°N amounted to some 1.7°C. Whether this event is an example of an internal climate mode or is externally forced, such as by enhanced solar effects, is presently under debate. This study suggests that natural variability is a likely cause, with reduced sea ice cover being crucial for the warming. A robust sea ice–air temperature relationship was demonstrated by a set of four simulations with the atmospheric ECHAM model forced with observed SST and sea ice concentrations. An analysis of the spatial characteristics of the observed early twentieth-century surface air temperature anomaly revealed that it was associated with similar sea ice variations. Further investigation of the variability of Arctic surface temperature and sea ice cover was performed by analyzing data from a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. By analyzing climate anomalies in the model that are similar to those that occurred in the early twentieth century, it was found that the simulated temperature increase in the Arctic was related to enhanced wind-driven oceanic inflow into the Barents Sea with an associated sea ice retreat. The magnitude of the inflow is linked to the strength of westerlies into the Barents Sea. This study proposes a mechanism sustaining the enhanced westerly winds by a cyclonic atmospheric circulation in the Barents Sea region created by a strong surface heat flux over the ice-free areas. Observational data suggest a similar series of events during the early twentieth-century Arctic warming, including increasing westerly winds between Spitsbergen and Norway, reduced sea ice, and enhanced cyclonic circulation over the Barents Sea. At the same time, the North Atlantic Oscillation was weakening.

The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

Remarks concerning the double cascade as a necessary mechanism for the instability of steady equivalent-barotropic flows

n a recent paper, Petroniet al. claim that a necessary condition for the instability of two-dimensional steady flows is a «double cascade» of energy and enstrophy respectively to larger and to smaller scales of motion. It is shown here that the analytical reasoning employed by Petroniet al. is flawed and that their conclusions are incorrect. What is true is that in any scale interaction (whether an instability or not), neither energy nor enstrophy can be transferred in one spectral direction only, but this result is extremely well known.

Can nutrition be promoted through agriculture-led food price policies? A systematic review

Abstract Objective: To systematically review the available evidence on whether national or international agricultural policies that directly affect the price of food influence the prevalence rates of undernutrition or nutrition-related chronic disease in children and adults. Design: Systematic review. Setting: Global. Search strategy: We systematically searched five databases for published literature (MEDLINE, EconLit, Agricola, AgEcon Search, Scopus) and systematically browsed other databases and relevant organisational websites for unpublished literature. Reference lists of included publications were hand-searched for additional relevant studies. We included studies that evaluated or simulated the effects of national or international food-price-related agricultural policies on nutrition outcomes reporting data collected after 1990 and published in English. Primary and secondary outcomes: Prevalence rates of undernutrition (measured with anthropometry or clinical deficiencies) and overnutrition (obesity and nutrition-related chronic diseases including cancer, heart disease and diabetes). Results: We identified a total of four relevant reports; two ex post evaluations and two ex ante simulations. A study from India reported on the undernutrition rates in children, and the other three studies from Egypt, the Netherlands and the USA reported on the nutrition related chronic disease outcomes in adults. Two of the studies assessed the impact of policies that subsidised the price of agricultural outputs and two focused on public food distribution policies. The limited evidence base provided some support for the notion that agricultural policies that change the prices of foods at a national level can have an effect on population-level nutrition and health outcomes. Conclusions: A systematic review of the available literature suggests that there is a paucity of robust direct evidence on the impact of agricultural price policies on nutrition and health.

Time and the price impact of a trade

We use Hasbrouck's (1991) vector autoregressive model for prices and trades to empirically test and assess the role played by the waiting time between consecutive transactions in the process of price formation. We find that as the time duration between transactions decreases, the price impact of trades, the speed of price adjustment to trade‐related information, and the positive autocorrelation of signed trades all increase. This suggests that times when markets are most active are times when there is an increased presence of informed traders; we interpret such markets as having reduced liquidity.

Mechanism for synchronized motion between two humans in mutual tapping experiments: Transition from alternative mode to synchronization mode

We performed mutual tapping experiments between two humans to investigate the conditions required for synchronized motion. A transition from an alternative mode to a synchronization mode was discovered under the same conditions when a subject changed from a reactive mode to an anticipation mode in single tapping experiments. Experimental results suggest that the cycle time for each tapping motion is tuned by a proportional control that is based on synchronization errors and cycle time errors. As the tapping frequency increases, the mathematical model based on the feedback control in the sensory-motor closed loop predicts a discrete mode transition as the gain factors of the proportional control decease. The conditions of the synchronization were shown as a consequence of the coupled dynamics based on the subsequent feedback loop in the sensory-motor system.

Language in calculation: A core mechanism?

Although there is evidence that exact calculation recruits left hemisphere perisylvian language systems, recent work has shown that exact calculation can be retained despite severe damage to these networks. In this study, we sought to identify a “core” network for calculation and hence to determine the extent to which left hemisphere language areas are part of this network. We examined performance on addition and subtraction problems in two modalities: one using conventional two-digit problems that can be easily encoded into language; the other using novel shape representations. With regard to numerical problems, our results revealed increased left fronto-temporal activity in addition, and increased parietal activity in subtraction, potentially reflecting retrieval of linguistically encoded information during addition. The shape problems elicited activations of occipital, parietal and dorsal temporal regions, reflecting visual reasoning processes. A core activation common to both calculation types involved the superior parietal lobule bilaterally, right temporal sub-gyral area, and left lateralized activations in inferior parietal (BA 40), frontal (BA 6/8/32) and occipital (BA 18) regions. The large bilateral parietal activation could be attributed to visuo-spatial processing in calculation. The inferior parietal region, and particularly the left angular gyrus, was part of the core calculation network. However, given its activation in both shape and number tasks, its role is unlikely to reflect linguistic processing per se. A possibility is that it serves to integrate right hemisphere visuo-spatial and left hemisphere linguistic and executive processing in calculation.

Price discovery of credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods

In this paper we investigate the price discovery process in single-name credit spreads obtained from bond, credit default swap (CDS), equity and equity option prices. We analyse short term price discovery by modelling daily changes in credit spreads in the four markets with a vector autoregressive model (VAR). We also look at price discovery in the long run with a vector error correction model (VECM). We find that in the short term the option market clearly leads the other markets in the sub-prime crisis (2007-2009). During the less severe sovereign debt crisis (2009-2012) and the pre-crisis period, options are still important but CDSs become more prominent. In the long run, deviations from the equilibrium relationship with the option market still lead to adjustments in the credit spreads observed or implied from other markets. However, options no longer dominate price discovery in any of the periods considered. Our findings have implications for traders, credit risk managers and financial regulators.

A novel transport mechanism for MOMP in Chlamydophila pneumoniae and its putative role in immune-therapy

Major outer membrane proteins (MOMPs) of Gram negative bacteria are one of the most intensively studied membrane proteins. MOMPs are essential for maintaining the structural integrity of bacterial outer membranes and in adaptation of parasites to their hosts. There is evidence to suggest a role for purified MOMP from Chlamydophila pneumoniae and corresponding MOMP-derived peptides in immune-modulation, leading to a reduced atherosclerotic phenotype in apoE−/− mice via a characteristic dampening of MHC class II activity. The work reported herein tests this hypothesis by employing a combination of homology modelling and docking to examine the detailed molecular interactions that may be responsible. A three-dimensional homology model of the C. pneumoniae MOMP was constructed based on the 14 transmembrane β-barrel crystal structure of the fatty acid transporter from Escherichia coli, which provides a plausible transport mechanism for MOMP. Ligand docking experiments were used to provide details of the possible molecular interactions driving the binding of MOMP-derived peptides to MHC class II alleles known to be strongly associated with inflammation. The docking experiments were corroborated by predictions from conventional immuno-informatic algorithms. This work supports further the use of MOMP in C. pneumoniae as a possible vaccine target and the role of MOMP-derived peptides as vaccine candidates for immune-therapy in chronic inflammation that can result in cardiovascular events.

Green marketing in housing: reality or rhetoric?

All new homes in the UK will be required to be zero carbon from 2016. Housing sector bodies and individual housing developers are championing a transition from traditional marketing to green marketing approaches to raise consumer awareness of the benefits of low and zero carbon homes. On-site sales teams on housing developments form a central interface between the developer and potential buyers. These teams, then, have a critical role in the success or otherwise of the developers’ green marketing strategies. However, there is a dearth of empirical research that explores the actual attitudes and practices of these teams. An exploratory case study approach was adopted. The data collection consisted of reviewing relevant company documentation and semi-structure interviews with the on-site sales teams from six housing developments. The findings from two case studies suggest that the sales teams do have potential to forge a bridge between the design / production and consumption spheres in the way that consumers understand and appreciate, but further work is required. The sales teams’ practices were constrained by the incumbent, traditional marketing logic that rotates around issues such as location and selling price. The sales teams appeared to adopt a strategy of a restriction of information about the benefits of low and zero carbon homes to not disturb the prevailing logic. Further, the sales teams justify this insulating mechanism by the argument that consumers are not interested in those benefits. This rhetoric may be driving a real wedge between the design / production and consumption spheres to the detriment of the consumer and, in the longer term, the house builder itself.

Government policy under price uncertainty: a source of volatility in illegal immigration

In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for why illegal immigration can exhibit substantial fluctuation. We develop a model economy in which migrants make decisions in the face of uncertain border enforcement and lump-sum transfers from the host country. The uncertainty is extrinsic in nature, a sunspot, and arises as a result of ambiguity regarding the commodity price of money. Migrants are restricted from participating in state-contingent insurance markets in the host country, whereas host country natives are not. Volatility in migration flows stems from two distinct sources: the tension between transfers inducing migration and enforcement discouraging it and secondly the existence of a sunspot. Finally, we examine the impact of a change in tax/transfer policies by the government on migration.

Cannabidivarin-rich cannabis extracts are anticonvulsant in mouse and rat via a CB 1 receptor-independent mechanism

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Epilepsy is the most prevalent neurological disease and is characterized by recurrent seizures. Here, we investigate (i) the anticonvulsant profiles of cannabis-derived botanical drug substances (BDSs) rich in cannabidivarin (CBDV) and containing cannabidiol (CBD) in acute in vivo seizure models and (ii) the binding of CBDV BDSs and their components at cannabinoid CB 1 receptors. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH The anticonvulsant profiles of two CBDV BDSs (50–422 mg·kg −1 ) were evaluated in three animal models of acute seizure. Purified CBDV and CBD were also evaluated in an isobolographic study to evaluate potential pharmacological interactions. CBDV BDS effects on motor function were also investigated using static beam and grip strength assays. Binding of CBDV BDSs to cannabinoid CB 1 receptors was evaluated using displacement binding assays. KEY RESULTS CBDV BDSs exerted significant anticonvulsant effects in the pentylenetetrazole (≥100 mg·kg −1 ) and audiogenic seizure models (≥87 mg·kg −1 ), and suppressed pilocarpine-induced convulsions (≥100 mg·kg −1 ). The isobolographic study revealed that the anticonvulsant effects of purified CBDV and CBD were linearly additive when co-administered. Some motor effects of CBDV BDSs were observed on static beam performance; no effects on grip strength were found. The Δ 9 -tetrahydrocannabinol and Δ 9 -tetrahydrocannabivarin content of CBDV BDS accounted for its greater affinity for CB 1 cannabinoid receptors than purified CBDV. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS CBDV BDSs exerted significant anticonvulsant effects in three models of seizure that were not mediated by the CB 1 cannabinoid receptor and were of comparable efficacy with purified CBDV. These findings strongly support the further clinical development of CBDV BDSs for the treatment of epilepsy.

Experimental duopolies under price guarantees

In a symmetric differentiated experimental duopoly we test the ability of Price Guarantees (PGs) to raise prices above the competitive levels. Different types of PGs (‘aggressive’ and ‘soft’ price-beating and price-matching) are implemented either as an exogenously imposed market rule or as a business strategy. Our results show that PGs may lead close to the collusive outcome, depending on whether the interaction between duopolists is repeated and provided that the guarantee is not of the ‘aggressive’ price-beating type.