932 resultados para Predictive controllers


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Nuclear fluorescence in keratinocytes is an occasional phenomenon, often present in autoimmune diseases, especially in connective-tissue disease (CTD); however, its clinical significance remains unclear. To investigate the profile of patients with positive nuclear staining on direct immunofluorescence (DIF) of skin samples. A retrospective analysis of 28 patient records from our immunodermatology laboratory was performed between May 2003 and June 2006. Inclusion criteria were the presence of autoantibodies (IgG, IgA or IgM) or complement (C3) binding keratinocyte nuclei on DIF. The most prevalent diseases related to the nuclear keratinocyte DIF staining were systemic lupus erythematosus (n = 9), mixed CTD (n = 3), overlap syndrome (n = 3), Sjogren`s syndrome (n = 1), and CREST (calcinosis, Raynaud`s phenomenon, oesophageal dysmotility, sclerodactyly and telangiectasia) syndrome (n = 1). Serum antinuclear antibody (ANA) was positive in 20 of 28 patients, with titres varying from 1 : 160 to 1 : 1280. Of the 20 patients with positive anti-nuclear antibodies (ANA), 17 were positive for anti-extractable nuclear antigen antibodies, 12 had anti-SSA/Ro, 11 had anti-SSB/La and 8 had anti-ribonucleoprotein. Eight patients were negative for ANA. Positive predictive value of in vivo ANA for systemic CTDs was 75%. The present data suggest that in vivo ANA evaluation is an additional and feasible auxiliary tool for diagnosing CTDs.

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Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.

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Objectives. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between variables of physical assessment - muscular strength, flexibility and dynamic balance - with pain, pain threshold, and fibromyalgia symptoms (FM). Methods. Our sample consists of 55 women, with age ranging from 30 to 55 years (mean of 46.5, (standard deviation, SD=6.6)), mean body mass index (BMI) of 28.7(3.8) and diagnosed for FM according to the American College of Rheumatology criteria. Pain intensity was measured using a visual analogue scale (VAS) and pain threshold (PT) using Fisher`s dolorimeter. FM symptoms were assessed by the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ); flexibility by the third finger to floor test (3FF); the muscular strength index (MSI) by the maximum volunteer isometric contraction at flexion and extension of right knee and elbow using a force transducer, dynamic balance by the time to get up and go (TUG) test and the functional reach test (FRT). Data were analysed using Pearson`s correlation, as well as simple and multivariate regression tests, with significance level of 5%. Results. PT and FIQ were weakly but significantly correlated with the TUG, MSI and 3FF as well as VAS with the TUG and MSI (p<0.05). VAS, PT and FIQ was not correlated with FRT. Simple regression suggests that, alone, TUG, FR, MSI and 3FF are low predictors of VAS, PT and FIQ. For the VAS, the best predictive model includes TUG and MSI, explaining 12.6% of pain. variability. For TP and total symptoms, as obtained by the FIQ, most predictive model includes 3FF and MSI, which respectively respond by 30% and 21% of the variability. Conclusion. Muscular strength, flexibility and balance are associated with pain, pain threshold, and symptoms in FM patients.

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Background & Aims: EPIC-3 is a prospective, international study that has demonstrated the efficacy of PEG-IFN alfa-2b plus weight-based ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C and significant fibrosis who previously failed any interferon-alfa/ribavirin therapy. The aim of the present study was to assess FibroTest (FT), a validated non-invasive marker of fibrosis in treatment-naive patients, as a possible alternative to biopsy as the baseline predictor of subsequent early virologic (EVR) and sustained virologic response (SVR) in previously treated patients. Methods: Of 2312 patients enrolled, 1459 had an available baseline FT, biopsy, and complete data. Uni- (UV) and multi-variable (MV) analyses were performed using FT and biopsy. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar as in the overall population; METAVIR stage: 28% F2, 29% F3, and 43% F4, previous relapsers 29%, previous PEG-IFN regimen 41%, high baseline viral load (BVL) 64%. 506 patients (35%) had undetectable HCV-RNA at TW12 (TW12neg), with 58% achieving SVR. The accuracy of FT was similar to that in naive patients: AUROC curve for the diagnosis of F4 vs F2 = 0.80 (p<0.00001). Five baseline factors were associated (p<0.001) with SVR in UV and MV analyses (odds ratio: UV/MV): fibrosis stage estimated using FT (4.5/5.9) or biopsy (1.5/1.6), genotype 2/3 (4.5/5.1), BVL (1.5/1.3), prior relapse (1.6/1.6), previous treatment with non-PEG-IFN (2.6/2.0). These same factors were associated (p <= 0.001) with EVR. Among patients TW12neg, two independent factors remained highly predictive of SVR by MV analysis (p <= 0.001): genotype 2/3 (odds ratio = 2.9), fibrosis estimated with FT (4.3) or by biopsy (1.5). Conclusions: FibroTest at baseline is a possible non-invasive alternative to biopsy for the prediction of EVR at 12 weeks and SVR, in patients with previous failures and advanced fibrosis, retreated with PEG-IFN alfa-2b and ribavirin. (C) 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objectives: We evaluated the correlation between the consensus and clinical definitions of pancreatitis following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), with the objective of updating and revising the definition of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). Methods: Three hundred patients were subjected to serial serum amylase & lipase levels testing and abdominal computed tomography scan for abdominal pain after ERCP. Main outcome measures included the correlation between consensus and clinical definitions. Results: Using consensus criteria, 25 patients had acute pancreatitis (11 of mild and 14 of moderate severity). Forty-three patients had acute pancreatitis using the clinical definitions (18 of mild and 25 of moderate severity). At 4 hours, serum hyperamylasemia of under 1.5-fold and at 12 hours a serum hyperamylasemia of under 2-fold had a negative predictive value of 0.94 for development of PEP. Serum hyperamylasemia following ERCP had a poor positive predictive value for PEP. Conclusions: Clinical and consensus definitions are poorly correlated; use of the latter leads to significant underrecognition of PEP. The adoption of clinical definition results in uniformity of diagnosis of pancreatitis for clinical care and research. Serum amylase levels at 4 and 12 hours after ERCP have a high negative predictive value for PEP.

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Weight loss and nutritional status 5 or more years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was prospectively documented. The hypothesis was that even after clinical adaptation, imbalances might still occur. Seventy-five consecutive patients (age 49.3 +/- 10.6 years, 89.3% females) were recruited 83.4 +/- 14.3 months after the intervention. Weight loss and nutritional abnormalities were registered. Body mass index (BMI) was 56.5 +/- 10.0 preoperatively, 29.4 +/- 6. 2 by 24 months and 34.4 +/- 14.6 when last seen. Major current deficit occurred for magnesium (32.1% of the patients), hemoglobin (50.8%), iron (29.8%), ferritin (36.0%), zinc (40.5%), vitamin B(12) (61.8%), vitamin D(3) (60.5%), and beta-carotene (56.8%). Low preoperative measurements had already been unveiled for iron, transferrin, zinc, and vitamin B(12). Total drug consumption tended to decrease after operation, and present findings correlated with excess weight loss (EWL). Also presence of diabetes and BMI value were predictors of long-term EWL, along with biochemical profile by 2 years. Multivitamin supplementation and gastrointestinal complaints partially correlated with nutritional results. (1) Good initial weight loss with moderate late regain, anemia, and multiple nutrient deficits was the common pattern. (2) Massive weight loss, frequent vomiting, dumping syndrome, and women in reproductive age were risk factors for hemoglobin or vitamin deficits, whereas superobesity, diabetes, and use of multiple drugs were associated with EWL result. (3) Most laboratory tests became stable by 2 years and along with BMI correlated with late EWL. (4) Two-year nutritional investigation is especially recommended because of its long-term predictive value.

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PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to analyze the agreement between anal Pap smear and high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy in diagnosing anal dysplasia in HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analysis of HIV-infected patients receiving anal dysplasia screening as part of routine care. Agreement between measures was estimated by weighted kappa statistics, using a three-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (normal, low-grade dysplasia, and high-grade dysplasia). Estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated using a two-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (""without dysplasia"" and ""with dysplasia of any grade""). Estimates were also calculated for the detection of high-grade dysplasia. RESULTS: During a one-year period, 222 patients underwent 330 anal Pap smears followed by high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies. There were 311 satisfactory Pap smears with concurrent biopsies. Considering histology the standard, the frequency of anal dysplasia was 46%. Kappa agreement between anal Pap smear and biopsy was 0.20. For detection of anal dysplasia of any grade, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 61%, specificity of 60%, positive predictive value of 56%, and negative predictive value of 64%. For high-grade dysplasia, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 16% and specificity of 97%. CONCLUSION: Anal Pap smears alone were not sensitive enough to rule out anal dysplasia. We recommend that high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy be incorporated as a complementary screening test for anal dysplasia in high-risk patients. Following baseline high-resolution anoscopy, these individuals could be followed with serial anal cytology to dictate the need for future high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies.

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Background & aims: Severe obesity imposes physical limitations to body composition assessment. Our aim was to compare body fat (BF) estimations of severely obese patients obtained by bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) for development of new equations for BF prediction. Methods: Severely obese subjects (83 female/36 mate, mean age = 41.6 +/- 11.6 years) had BF estimated by BIA and ADP. The agreement of the data was evaluated using Bland-Altman`s graphic and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A multivariate regression analysis was performed to develop and validate new predictive equations. Results: BF estimations from BIA (64.8 +/- 15 kg) and ADP (65.6 +/- 16.4 kg) did not differ (p > 0.05, with good accuracy, precision, and CCC), but the Bland- Altman graphic showed a wide Limit of agreement (- 10.4; 8.8). The standard BIA equation overestimated BF in women (-1.3 kg) and underestimated BF in men (5.6 kg; p < 0.05). Two BF new predictive equations were generated after BIA measurement, which predicted BF with higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard BIA equation. Conclusions: Standard BIA equations were inadequate for estimating BF in severely obese patients. Equations developed especially for this population provide more accurate BF assessment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

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Calculating the estimated resting energy expenditure (REE) in severely obese patients is useful, but there is controversy concerning the effectiveness of available prediction equations (PE) using body weight (BW). We evaluated the efficacy of REE equations against indirect calorimetry (IC) in severely obese subjects and aimed to develop a new equation based on body composition compartments. One hundred and twenty severely obese patients had their REE measured (MREE) by IC and compared to the most commonly used PE (Harris-Benedict (HB), Ireton-Jones, Owen, and Mifflin St. Jeor). In a random sample (n = 60), a new REE equation based on fat-free mass (FFM) was developed and validated. All PE studied failed to estimate REE in severe obesity (low concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) and limits of agreement of nearly 50% of the sample +/- 10% of MREE). The HB equation using actual BW exhibited good results for all samples when compared to IC (2,117 +/- 518 kcal/day by HB vs. 2,139 +/- 423 kcal/day by MREE, P > 0.01); these results were blunted when patients were separated by gender (2,771 vs. 2,586 kcal/day, P < 0.001 in males and 1,825 vs. 1,939 kcal/day, P < 0.001 in females). A new resting energy expenditure equation prediction was developed using FFM, Horie-Waitzberg, & Gonzalez, expressed as 560.43 + (5.39 x BW) + (14.14 x FFM). The new resting energy expenditure equation prediction, which uses FFM and BW, demonstrates higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard PE in patients when compared to MREE (2,129 +/- 45 kcal/day vs. 2,139 +/- 423 kcal/day, respectively, P = 0.1). The new equation developed to estimate REE, which takes into account both FFM and BW, provides better results than currently available equations.

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Background: Using enzyme immunoassays and Western blot (Wb) tests, HTLV serodiagnosis yields indeterminate results in a significant number of cases. Objective: To determine the prevalence of HTLV infection among HTLV-seroindeterminate individuals. Study design: We studied peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 65 anti-HTLV Wb-seroindeterminate individuals by attempting to amplify proviral DNA sequences (tax and pot) to identify HTLV-I and HTLV-2 infections. Results: These 65 specimens exhibited predominantly (43%) anti-HTLV antibodies to gag-coded antigens in the absence of anti-p24 on Wb analysis. Tax proviral sequences were detected in 6 (9.2%) samples. According to restricted fragment polymorphism analysis (RFLP), we identified HTLV-1 proviral DNA in 4 samples. HTLV-2 in one and sequences from both in another. Nested PCR for the pot region was positive in 3 (4.6%) specimens, which were also positive for tax sequences. After hybridization HTLV-1 infection was confirmed in 2 samples (3.1%) and HTLV-2 in another (1.5%). Detection of a single HTLV DNA sequence may be due to infection by defective provirus, but its significance remains undefined. In this cohort, no Wb reactivity pattern was predictive of proviral detection. HTLV-I infection was demonstrated in an individual who had Wb reactivity to gag-coded antigens only. Conclusions: This emphasizes the importance of clinical and laboratory follow-up of HTLV-seroindeterminate individuals from endemic areas. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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While explaining a large proportion of any variance, accounts of the speed and accuracy of targetting movements use techniques (e.g., log transforms) that typically reduce variability before ''explaining'' the data. Therefore the predictive power of such accounts are important. We consider whether Plamondon's model can account for kinematics of targetting movements of clinical populations.

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The objective of this study was to find very early viral kinetic markers to predict nonresponse to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy in a group of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV-coinfected patients. Twenty-six patients (15 HCV genotype-1 and 11 genotype-3) were treated with a 48-week regimen of peginterferon-alfa-2a (PEG-IFN) (180 mu g/week) and weight-based ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). Samples were collected at baseline; 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 and 42 h; days 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 15, 22, 29, 43 and 57 then weekly and monthly. Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients (27%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). Nadir HCV RNA levels were observed 1.6 +/- 0.3 days after initiation of therapy, followed by a 0.3- to 12.9-fold viral rebound until the administration of the second dose of PEG-IFN, which were not associated with SVR or HCV genotype. A viral decline < 1.19 log for genotype-1 and < 0.97 log for genotype-3, 2 days after starting therapy, had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% for SVR. The day 2 virological response had a similar positive predictive value for SVR as a rapid virological response at week 4. In addition, a second-phase viral decline slope (i.e., measured from day 2 to 29) < 0.3 log/week had a NPV = 100% for SVR. We conclude that first-phase viral decline at day 2 and second-phase viral decline slope (< 0.3 log/week) are excellent predictors of nonresponse. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of nonresponse in patients with HCV and HIV.

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Background & Aims: The pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of pegylated-interferon-alpha-2a (PEG-IFN) have not been described in HCV/HIV co-infected patients. We sought to estimate the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of PEG-IFN and determine whether these parameters predict treatment outcome. Methods: Twenty-six HCV/human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-co-infected patients were treated with a 48-week regimen of PEG-IFN (180 mu g/week) plus ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). HCV RNA and PEG-IFN concentrations were obtained from samples collected until week 12. A modeling framework that includes pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters was developed. Results: Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). PEG-IFN concentrations at day 8 were similar to steady-state levels (p = 0.15) and overall pharmacokinetic parameters were similar in SVRs and non-SVRs. The maximum PEG-IFN effectiveness during the first PEG-IFN dose and the HCV-infected cell loss rate (delta), were significantly higher in SVRs compared to non-SVRs (median 95% vs. 86% [p = 0.013], 0.27 vs. 0.11 day(-1) [p = 0.006], respectively). Patients infected with HCV genotype 1 had a significantly lower average first-week PEG-IFN effectiveness (median 70% vs. 88% [p = 0.043]), however, 4- to 12-week PEG-IFN effectiveness was not significantly different compared to those with genotype 3 (p = 0.114). Genotype 1 had a significantly lower delta compared to genotype 3 (median 0.14 vs. 0.23 day(-1) [p = 0.021]). The PEG-IFN concentration that decreased HCV production by 50% (EC(50)) was lower in genotype 3 compared to genotype 1 (median 1.3 vs. 3.4 [p = 0.034]). Conclusions: Both the HCV-infected cell loss rate (delta) and the maximum effectiveness of the first dose of PEG-IFN-alpha-2a characterised HIV co-infected patients and were highly predictive of SVR. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of response in patients with HCV and HIV. (C) 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) alterations and their clinical and pathological implications have been analyzed in several human malignancies. A marked decrease in mtDNA copy number along with the increase in malignancy was observed in diffusely infiltrating astrocytomas (24 WHO grade II, 18 grade III, and 78 grade IV or GBM) compared to non-neoplastic brain tissues, being mostly depleted in GBM. Although high relative gene expression levels of mtDNA replication regulators (mitochondrial polymerase catalytic subunit (POLG), transcription factors A (TFAM), B1 (TFB1M) and B2 (TFB2M)) were detected, it cannot successfully revert the mtDNA depletion observed in our samples. On the other hand, a strong correlation among the expression levels of mitochondrial transcription factors corroborates with the TFAM role in the direct control of TFB1M and TFB2M during initiation of mtDNA replication. POLG expression was related to decreased mtDNA copy number, and its overexpression associated with TFAM expression levels also have an impact on long-term survival among GBM patients, interpreted as a potential predictive factor for better prognosis. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. and Mitochondria Research Society. All rights reserved.

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Tinnitus is a symptom present in approximately 15% of the world population. Most patients are between 40 and 80 years of age; the prevalence above 60 reaches 33%. About 20% have moderate to severe impact in the quality of life but the factors associated with the tinnitus annoyance are not completely known. Aim: The objective of this study is to evaluate the relationship between age, gender and hearing loss on tinnitus annoyance. Materials and methods: 68 patients were evaluated at the tinnitus center at our hospital, from March 2007 to march 2008, with a detailed interview, complete otolaryngological examination, the Portuguese version of the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory and pure tone audiometry. Results: Age varied from 24 to 83 (mean=59); the mean THI value was 39 (females: 36; males: 44). THI grades were: slight: 32.3%; mild: 19.1%; moderate: 20.6%; severe: 13.2% and catastrophic: 14.7%. No significant correlation was found between gender (p=0.30), age (p=0.77) hearing loss (p>0.05 for all averages analyzed) and tinnitus severity. Conclusion: Gender, age and hearing loss do not influence tinnitus annoyance, using the THI.