Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

Prediction of first coronary events with the Framingham score: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty exists about the performance of the Framingham risk score when applied in different populations. OBJECTIVE: We assessed calibration of the Framingham risk score (ie, relationship between predicted and observed coronary event rates) in US and non-US populations free of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We reviewed studies that evaluated the performance of the Framingham risk score to predict first coronary events in a validation cohort, as identified by Medline, EMBASE, BIOSIS, and Cochrane library searches (through August 2005). Two reviewers independently assessed 1496 studies for eligibility, extracted data, and performed quality assessment using predefined forms. RESULTS: We included 25 validation cohorts of different population groups (n = 128,000) in our main analysis. Calibration varied over a wide range from under- to overprediction of absolute risk by factors of 0.57 to 2.7. Risk prediction for 7 cohorts (n = 18658) from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand was well calibrated (corresponding figures: 0.87-1.08; for the 5 biggest cohorts). The estimated population risks for first coronary events were strongly associated (goodness of fit: R2 = 0.84) and in good agreement with observed risks (coefficient for predicted risk: beta = 0.84; 95% CI 0.41-1.26). In 18 European cohorts (n = 109499), the corresponding figures indicated close association (R2 = 0.72) but substantial overprediction (beta = 0.58, 95% CI 0.39-0.77). The risk score was well calibrated on the intercept for both population clusters. CONCLUSION: The Framingham score is well calibrated to predict first coronary events in populations from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. Overestimation of absolute risk in European cohorts requires recalibration procedures.

Prediction of hypertensive crisis based on average, variability and approximate entropy of 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring

Approximate entropy (ApEn) of blood pressure (BP) can be easily measured based on software analysing 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), but the clinical value of this measure is unknown. In a prospective study we investigated whether ApEn of BP predicts, in addition to average and variability of BP, the risk of hypertensive crisis. In 57 patients with known hypertension we measured ApEn, average and variability of systolic and diastolic BP based on 24-h ABPM. Eight of these fifty-seven patients developed hypertensive crisis during follow-up (mean follow-up duration 726 days). In bivariate regression analysis, ApEn of systolic BP (P<0.01), average of systolic BP (P=0.02) and average of diastolic BP (P=0.03) were significant predictors of hypertensive crisis. The incidence rate ratio of hypertensive crisis was 14.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8, 631.5; P<0.01) for high ApEn of systolic BP as compared to low values. In multivariable regression analysis, ApEn of systolic (P=0.01) and average of diastolic BP (P<0.01) were independent predictors of hypertensive crisis. A combination of these two measures had a positive predictive value of 75%, and a negative predictive value of 91%, respectively. ApEn, combined with other measures of 24-h ABPM, is a potentially powerful predictor of hypertensive crisis. If confirmed in independent samples, these findings have major clinical implications since measures predicting the risk of hypertensive crisis define patients requiring intensive follow-up and intensified therapy.

Prediction of arrhythmic events after myocardial infarction based on signal-averaged electrocardiogram and ejection fraction

Trials on implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD) for patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have highlighted the need for risk assessment of arrhythmic events (AE). The aim of this study was to evaluate risk predictors based on a novel approach of interpreting signal-averaged electrocardiogram (SAECG) and ejection fraction (EF).

Allergen motifs and the prediction of allergenicity

We have recently shown that the majority of allergens can be represented by allergen motifs. This observation prompted us to experimentally investigate the synthesized peptides corresponding to the in silico motifs with regard to potential IgE binding and cross-reactions with allergens. Two motifs were selected as examples to conduct in vitro studies. From the first motif, derived from allergenic MnSOD sequences, the motif stretch of the allergen Asp f 6 was selected and synthesized as a peptide (MnSOD Mot). The corresponding full-length MnSOD was also expressed in Escherichia coli and both were compared for IgE reactivity with sera of patients reacting to the MnSOD of Aspergillus fumigatus or Malassezia sympodialis. For the second motif, the invertebrate tropomyosin sequences were aligned and a motif consensus sequence was expressed as a recombinant protein (Trop Mot). The IgE reactivity of Trop Mot was analyzed in ELISA and compared to that of recombinant tropomyosin from the shrimp Penaeus aztecus (rPen a 1) in ImmunoCAP. MnSOD Mot was weakly recognized by some of the tested sera, suggesting that the IgE binding epitopes of a multimeric globular protein such as MnSOD cannot be fully represented by a motif peptide. In contrast, the motif Trop Mot showed the same IgE reactivity as shrimp full-length tropomyosin, indicating that the major allergenic reactivity of a repetitive structure such as tropomyosin can be covered by a motif peptide. Our results suggest that the motif-generating algorithm may be used for identifying major IgE binding structures of coiled-coil proteins.

A systematic review of the success of sinus floor elevation and survival of implants inserted in combination with sinus floor elevation. Part II: transalveolar technique

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review were to assess the survival rate of implants placed in sites with transalveolar sinus floor elevation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic search was conducted to identify prospective and retrospective cohort studies on transalveolar sinus floor elevation, with a mean follow-up time of at least 1 year after functional loading. Failure and complication rates were analyzed using random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary estimates/ year proportions. RESULTS: The search provided 849 titles. Full-text analysis was performed for 176 articles, resulting in 19 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of these studies indicated an estimated annual failure rate of 2.48% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.37-4.49%) translating to an estimated survival rate of 92.8% (95% CI): 87.4-96.0%) for implants placed in transalveolarly augmented sinuses, after 3 years in function. Furthermore, subject-based analysis revealed an estimated annual failure of 3.71% (95% CI: 1.21-11.38%), translating to 10.5% (95% CI: 3.6-28.9%) of the subjects experiencing implant loss over 3 years. CONCLUSION: Survival rates of implants placed in transalveolar sinus floor augmentation sites are comparable to those in non-augmented sites. This technique is predictable with a low incidence of complications during and post-operatively.

A systematic review of the success of sinus floor elevation and survival of implants inserted in combination with sinus floor elevation

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review were to assess the survival rate of grafts and implants placed with sinus floor elevation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic search was conducted to identify studies on sinus floor elevation, with a mean follow-up time of at least 1 year after functional loading. RESULTS: The search provided 839 titles. Full-text analysis was performed for 175 articles resulting in 48 studies that met the inclusion criteria, reporting on 12,020 implants. Meta-analysis indicated an estimated annual failure rate of 3.48% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.48%-4.88%] translating into a 3-year implant survival of 90.1% (95% CI: 86.4%-92.8%). However, when failure rates was analyzed on the subject level, the estimated annual failure was 6.04% (95% CI: 3.87%-9.43%) translating into 16.6% (95% CI: 10.9%-24.6%) of the subjects experiencing implant loss over 3 years. CONCLUSION: The insertion of dental implants in combination with maxillary sinus floor elevation is a predictable treatment method showing high implant survival rates and low incidences of surgical complications. The best results (98.3% implant survival after 3 years) were obtained using rough surface implants with membrane coverage of the lateral window.

Risk prediction of fever in neutropenia in children with cancer: a step towards individually tailored supportive therapy?

BACKGROUND: Fever in severe chemotherapy-induced neutropenia (FN) is the most frequent manifestation of a potentially lethal complication of current intensive chemotherapy regimens. This study aimed at establishing models predicting the risk of FN, and of FN with bacteremia, in pediatric cancer patients. METHODS: In a single-centre cohort study, characteristics potentially associated with FN and episodes of FN were retrospectively extracted from charts. Poisson regression accounting for chemotherapy exposure time was used for analysis. Prediction models were constructed based on a derivation set of two thirds of observations, and validated based on the remaining third of observations. RESULTS: In 360 pediatric cancer patients diagnosed and treated for a cumulative chemotherapy exposure time of 424 years, 629 FN were recorded (1.48 FN per patient per year, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.37-1.61), 145 of them with bacteremia (23% of FN; 0.34; 0.29-0.40). More intensive chemotherapy, shorter time since diagnosis, bone marrow involvement, central venous access device (CVAD), and prior FN were significantly and independently associated with a higher risk to develop both FN and FN with bacteremia. The prediction models explained more than 30% of the respective risks. CONCLUSIONS: The two models predicting FN and FN with bacteremia were based on five easily accessible clinical variables. Before clinical application, they need to be validated by prospective studies.

Prediction of spatial orientation and morphology of calcaneonavicular coalitions

BACKGROUND: Calcaneonavicular coalitions (CNC) have been reported to be associated with anatomical aberrations of either the calcaneus and/or navicular bones. These morphological abnormalities may complicate accurate surgical resection. Three-dimensional analysis of spatial orientation and morphological characteristics may help in preoperative planning of resection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixteen feet with a diagnosis of CNC were evaluated by means of 3-D CT modeling. Three angles were defined that were expressed in relation to one reproducible landmark (lateral border of the calcaneus): the dorsoplantar inclination, anteroposterior inclination, and socket angle. The depth and width of the coalitions were measured and calculated to obtain the estimated contact surface. Three-dimensional reconstructions of the calcanei served to evaluate the presence, distortion or absence of the anterior calcaneal facet and presence of a navicular beak. The interrater correlations were assessed in order to obtain values for the accuracy of the measurement methods. Sixteen normal feet were used as controls for comparison of the socket angle; anatomy of the anterior calcaneal facet and navicular beak as well. RESULTS: The dorsoplantar inclination angle averaged 50 degrees (+/-17), the anteroposterior inclination angle 64 degrees (+/-15), and the pathologic socket angle 98 degrees (+/-11). The average contact area was 156 mm(2). Ninety-four percent of all patients in the CNC group revealed a plantar navicular beak. In 50% of those patients the anterior calcaneal facet was replaced by the navicular portion and in 44% the facet was totally missing. In contrast, the socket angle in the control group averaged 77 degrees (+/-18), which was found to be statistically different than the CNC group (p = 0.0004). Only 25% of the patients in the control group had a plantar navicular beak. High, statistically significant interrater correlations were found for all measured angles. CONCLUSION: Computer-aided CT analysis and reconstructions help to determine the spatial orientations of CNC in space and provide useful information in order to anticipate morphological abnormalities of the calcaneus and navicular.

Computational prediction of the influence of crosslink distribution on the thermo-mechanical properties of epoxies

Experimental studies on epoxies report that the microstructure consists of highly crosslinked localized regions connected with a dispersed phase of low crosslink density. The various thermo-mechanical properties of epoxies might be affected by the crosslink distribution. But as experiments cannot report the exact number of crosslinked covalent bonds present in the structure, molecular dynamics is thus being used in this work to determine the influence of crosslink distribution on thermo-mechanical properties. Molecular dynamics and molecular mechanics simulations are used to establish wellequilibrated molecular models of EPON 862-DETDA epoxy system with a range of crosslink densities and various crosslink distributions. Crosslink distributions are being varied by forming differently crosslinked localized clusters and then by forming different number of crosslinks interconnecting the clusters. Simulations are subsequently used to predict the volume shrinkage, thermal expansion coefficients, and elastic properties of each of the crosslinked systems. The results indicate that elastic properties increase with increasing levels of overall crosslink density and the thermal expansion coefficient decreases with overall crosslink density, both above and below the glass transition temperature. Elastic moduli and coefficients of linear thermal expansion values were found to be different for systems with same overall crosslink density but having different crosslink distributions, thus indicating an effect of the epoxy nanostructure on physical properties. The values of thermo-mechanical properties for all the crosslinked systems are within the range of values reported in literature.