Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Desenvolupament d'algorismes biològicament inspirats basats en Support Vector Machines

L'objectiu d'aquest projecte ha estat el desenvolupament d'algorismes biològicament inspirats per a l'olfacció artificial. Per a assolir-lo ens hem basat en el paradigma de les màquines amb suport vectorial. Hem construit algoritmes que imitaven els processos computacionals dels diferents sistemes que formen el sistema olfactiu dels insectes, especialment de la llagosta Schistocerca gregaria. Ens hem centrat en el lòbuls de les antenes, i en el cos fungiforme. El primer està considerat un dispositiu de codificació de les olors, que a partir de la resposta temporal dels receptors olfactius a les antenes genera un patró d'activació espaial i temporal. Quant al cos fungiforme es considera que la seva funció és la d'una memòria per als olors, així com un centre per a la integració multi-sensorial. El primer pas ha estat la construcció de models detallats dels dos sistemes. A continuació, hem utilitzat aquests models per a processar diferents tipus de senyals amb l'objectiu de abstraure els principis computacionals subjacents. Finalment, hem avaluat les capacitats d'aquests models abstractes, i els hem utilitzat per al processat de dades provinents de sensors de gasos. Els resultats mostren que el models abstractes tenen millor comportament front el soroll i més capacitat d'emmagatzematge de records que altres models més clàssics, com ara les memòries associatives de Hopfield o fins i tot en determinades circumstàncies que les mateixes Support Vector Machines.

Spatial and temporal changes in Lutzomyia longipalpis abundance, a Leishmania infantum vector in an urban area in northeastern Argentina

This study aimed to analyse changes in the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Posadas, an urban area located in northeastern Argentina. Data were obtained during the summer of 2007 and 2009 through two entomological surveys of peridomiciles distributed around the city. The abundance distribution pattern for 2009 was computed and compared with the previous pattern obtained in 2007, when the first human visceral leishmaniasis cases were reported in the city. Vector abundance was also examined in relation to micro and macrohabitat characteristics. In 2007 and 2009, Lu. longipalpis was distributed among 41.5% and 31% of the households in the study area, respectively. In both years, the abundance rates at most of the trapping sites were below 30 Lu. longipalpis per trap per night; however, for areas exhibiting 30-60 Lu. longipalpis and more than 60 Lu. longipalpis, the areas increased in both size and number from 2007-2009. Lu. longipalpis was more abundant in areas with a higher tree and bush cover (a macrohabitat characteristic) and in peridomiciles with accumulated unused material (a microhabitat characteristic). These results will help to prioritise and focus control efforts by defining which peridomiciles display a potentially high abundance of Lu. longipalpis.

Aedes aegypti on Madeira Island (Portugal): genetic variation of a recently introduced dengue vector

The increasing population of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes on Madeira Island (Portugal) resulted in the first autochthonous dengue outbreak, which occurred in October 2012. Our study establishes the first genetic evaluation based on the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes [cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4)] and knockdown resistance ( kdr ) mutations exploring the colonisation history and the genetic diversity of this insular vector population. We included mosquito populations from Brazil and Venezuela in the analysis as putative geographic sources. The Ae. aegypti population from Madeira showed extremely low mtDNA genetic variability, with a single haplotype for COI and ND4. We also detected the presence of two important kdr mutations and the quasi-fixation of one of these mutations (F1534C). These results are consistent with a unique recent founder event that occurred on the island of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes that carry kdr mutations associated with insecticide resistance. Finally, we also report the presence of the F1534C kdr mutation in the Brazil and Venezuela populations. To our knowledge, this is the first time this mutation has been found in South American Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. Given the present risk of Ae. aegypti re-invading continental Europe from Madeira and the recent dengue outbreaks on the island, this information is important to plan surveillance and control measures.

Biological rhythms and vector insects

The adjustment of all species, animals and plants, to the Earth’s cyclic environments is ensured by their temporal organisation. The relationships between parasites, vectors and hosts rely greatly upon the synchronisation of their biological rhythms, especially circadian rhythms. In this short note, parasitic infections by Protozoa and by microfilariae have been chosen as examples of the dependence of successful transmission mechanisms on temporal components.

Bilateral sequential nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy: a comparison of visual outcomes in fellow eyes using quantitative analysis of goldmann visual fields.

OBJECTIVE To better define the concordance of visual loss in patients with nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION). METHODS The medical records of 86 patients with bilateral sequential NAION were reviewed retrospectively, and visual function was assessed using visual acuity, Goldmann visual fields, color vision, and relative afferent papillary defect. A quantitative total visual field score and score per quadrant were analyzed for each eye using the numerical Goldmann visual field scoring method. RESULTS Outcome measures were visual acuity, visual field, color vision, and relative afferent papillary defect. A statistically significant correlation was found between fellow eyes for multiple parameters, including logMAR visual acuity (P = .01), global visual field (P < .001), superior visual field (P < .001), and inferior visual field (P < .001). The mean deviation of total (P < .001) and pattern (P < .001) deviation analyses was significantly less between fellow eyes than between first and second eyes of different patients. CONCLUSIONS Visual function between fellow eyes showed a fair to moderate correlation that was statistically significant. The pattern of vision loss was also more similar in fellow eyes than between eyes of different patients. These results may help allow better prediction of visual outcome for the second eye in patients with NAION.

Interruption of vector transmission by native vectors and “the art of the possible”

In a recent article in the Reader’s Opinion, advantages and disadvantages of the certification processes of interrupted Chagas disease transmission (American trypanosomiasis) by native vector were discussed. Such concept, accepted by those authors for the case of endemic situations with introduced vectors, has been built on a long and laborious process by endemic countries and Subregional Initiatives for Prevention, Control and Treatment of Chagas, with Technical Secretariat of the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, to create a horizon target and goal to concentrate priorities and resource allocation and actions. With varying degrees of sucess, which are not replaceable for a certificate of good practice, has allowed during 23 years to safeguard the effective control of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi not to hundreds of thousands, but millions of people at risk conditions, truly “the art of the possible.”

The Plasmodium bottleneck: malaria parasite losses in the mosquito vector

Nearly one million people are killed every year by the malaria parasite Plasmodium. Although the disease-causing forms of the parasite exist only in the human blood, mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles are the obligate vector for transmission. Here, we review the parasite life cycle in the vector and highlight the human and mosquito contributions that limit malaria parasite development in the mosquito host. We address parasite killing in its mosquito host and bottlenecks in parasite numbers that might guide intervention strategies to prevent transmission.

Statistical discrimination of steroid profiles in doping control with support vector machines.

Due to their performance enhancing properties, use of anabolic steroids (e.g. testosterone, nandrolone, etc.) is banned in elite sports. Therefore, doping control laboratories accredited by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) screen among others for these prohibited substances in urine. It is particularly challenging to detect misuse with naturally occurring anabolic steroids such as testosterone (T), which is a popular ergogenic agent in sports and society. To screen for misuse with these compounds, drug testing laboratories monitor the urinary concentrations of endogenous steroid metabolites and their ratios, which constitute the steroid profile and compare them with reference ranges to detect unnaturally high values. However, the interpretation of the steroid profile is difficult due to large inter-individual variances, various confounding factors and different endogenous steroids marketed that influence the steroid profile in various ways. A support vector machine (SVM) algorithm was developed to statistically evaluate urinary steroid profiles composed of an extended range of steroid profile metabolites. This model makes the interpretation of the analytical data in the quest for deviating steroid profiles feasible and shows its versatility towards different kinds of misused endogenous steroids. The SVM model outperforms the current biomarkers with respect to detection sensitivity and accuracy, particularly when it is coupled to individual data as stored in the Athlete Biological Passport.

Intrusive versus domiciliated triatomines and the challenge of adapting vector control practices against Chagas disease

Chagas disease prevention remains mostly based on triatomine vector control to reduce or eliminate house infestation with these bugs. The level of adaptation of triatomines to human housing is a key part of vector competence and needs to be precisely evaluated to allow for the design of effective vector control strategies. In this review, we examine how the domiciliation/intrusion level of different triatomine species/populations has been defined and measured and discuss how these concepts may be improved for a better understanding of their ecology and evolution, as well as for the design of more effective control strategies against a large variety of triatomine species. We suggest that a major limitation of current criteria for classifying triatomines into sylvatic, intrusive, domiciliary and domestic species is that these are essentially qualitative and do not rely on quantitative variables measuring population sustainability and fitness in their different habitats. However, such assessments may be derived from further analysis and modelling of field data. Such approaches can shed new light on the domiciliation process of triatomines and may represent a key tool for decision-making and the design of vector control interventions.

Atlas of Mexican Triatominae (Reduviidae: Hemiptera) and vector transmission of Chagas disease

Chagas disease is one of the most important yet neglected parasitic diseases in Mexico and is transmitted by Triatominae. Nineteen of the 31 Mexican triatomine species have been consistently found to invade human houses and all have been found to be naturally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The present paper aims to produce a state-of-knowledge atlas of Mexican triatomines and analyse their geographic associations with T. cruzi, human demographics and landscape modification. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were constructed for the 19 species with more than 10 records in North America, as well as for T. cruzi. The 2010 Mexican national census and the 2007 National Forestry Inventory were used to analyse overlap patterns with ENMs. Niche breadth was greatest in species from the semiarid Nearctic Region, whereas species richness was associated with topographic heterogeneity in the Neotropical Region, particularly along the Pacific Coast. Three species,Triatoma longipennis, Triatoma mexicana and Triatoma barberi, overlapped with the greatest numbers of human communities, but these communities had the lowest rural/urban population ratios. Triatomine vectors have urbanised in most regions, demonstrating a high tolerance to human-modified habitats and broadened historical ranges, exposing more than 88% of the Mexican population and leaving few areas in Mexico without the potential for T. cruzitransmission.

Spatial distribution of triatomines in domiciles of an urban area of the Brazilian Southeast Region

Reports of triatomine infestation in urban areas have increased. We analysed the spatial distribution of infestation by triatomines in the urban area of Diamantina, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Triatomines were obtained by community-based entomological surveillance. Spatial patterns of infestation were analysed by Ripley’s K function and Kernel density estimator. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land cover derived from satellite imagery were compared between infested and uninfested areas. A total of 140 adults of four species were captured (100 Triatoma vitticeps, 25Panstrongylus geniculatus, 8 Panstrongylus megistus, and 7 Triatoma arthurneivai specimens). In total, 87.9% were captured within domiciles. Infection by trypanosomes was observed in 19.6% of 107 examined insects. The spatial distributions ofT. vitticeps, P. geniculatus, T. arthurneivai, and trypanosome-positive triatomines were clustered, occurring mainly in peripheral areas. NDVI values were statistically higher in areas infested by T. vitticeps and P. geniculatus. Buildings infested by these species were located closer to open fields, whereas infestations of P. megistus andT. arthurneivai were closer to bare soil. Human occupation and modification of natural areas may be involved in triatomine invasion, exposing the population to these vectors.

Clustering compositional data trajectories

Our essay aims at studying suitable statistical methods for the clustering ofcompositional data in situations where observations are constituted by trajectories ofcompositional data, that is, by sequences of composition measurements along a domain.Observed trajectories are known as “functional data” and several methods have beenproposed for their analysis.In particular, methods for clustering functional data, known as Functional ClusterAnalysis (FCA), have been applied by practitioners and scientists in many fields. To ourknowledge, FCA techniques have not been extended to cope with the problem ofclustering compositional data trajectories. In order to extend FCA techniques to theanalysis of compositional data, FCA clustering techniques have to be adapted by using asuitable compositional algebra.The present work centres on the following question: given a sample of compositionaldata trajectories, how can we formulate a segmentation procedure giving homogeneousclasses? To address this problem we follow the steps described below.First of all we adapt the well-known spline smoothing techniques in order to cope withthe smoothing of compositional data trajectories. In fact, an observed curve can bethought of as the sum of a smooth part plus some noise due to measurement errors.Spline smoothing techniques are used to isolate the smooth part of the trajectory:clustering algorithms are then applied to these smooth curves.The second step consists in building suitable metrics for measuring the dissimilaritybetween trajectories: we propose a metric that accounts for difference in both shape andlevel, and a metric accounting for differences in shape only.A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the proposed methodologies, usingboth hierarchical and partitional clustering algorithm. The quality of the obtained resultsis assessed by means of several indices

Assessing the mitochondrial DNA diversity of the Chagas disease vector Triatoma sordida (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)

Triatoma sordida is a species that transmits Trypanosoma cruzi to humans. In Brazil, T. sordida currently deserves special attention because of its wide distribution, tendency to invade domestic environments and vectorial competence. For the planning and execution of control protocols to be effective against Triatominae, they must consider its population structure. In this context, this study aimed to characterise the genetic variability of T. sordida populations collected in areas with persistent infestations from Minas Gerais, Brazil. Levels of genetic variation and population structure were determined in peridomestic T. sordida by sequencing a polymorphic region of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. Low nucleotide and haplotype diversity were observed for all 14 sampled areas; π values ranged from 0.002-0.006. Most obtained haplotypes occurred at low frequencies, and some were exclusive to only one of the studied populations. Interpopulation genetic diversity analysis revealed strong genetic structuring. Furthermore, the genetic variability of Brazilian populations is small compared to that of Argentinean and Bolivian specimens. The possible factors related to the reduced genetic variability and strong genetic structuring obtained for studied populations are discussed in this paper.

Hypertension differentially affects the expression of the gap junction protein connexin43 in cardiac myocytes and aortic smooth muscle cells.

Electrical and mechanical coupling of myocytes in heart and of smooth muscle cells in the aortic wall is thought to be mediated by intercellular channels aggregated at gap junctions. Connexin43 (Cx43) is one of the predominant membrane proteins forming junctional channels in the cardiovascular system. This study was undertaken to assess its expression during experimental hypertension. Rats were made hypertensive by clipping one renal artery (two-kidney, one-clip renal hypertension) or by administering deoxycorticosterone and salt (DOCA-salt hypertension). After four weeks, rats from both models showed a similar increase in intra-arterial mean blood pressure, as well as in the thickness of both aorta and heart walls. Northern blot analysis showed that, compared to controls, hypertensive rats expressed twice more Cx43 in aorta, but not in heart. These results suggest that localized mechanical forces induced by hypertension are major tissue-specific regulators of Cx43 expression.