Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Instantaneous phase of the autocorrelation and robustness to signal-dependent noise

The phase of an analytic signal constructed from the autocorrelation function of a signal contains significant information about the shape of the signal. Using Bedrosian's (1963) theorem for the Hilbert transform it is proved that this phase is robust to multiplicative noise if the signal is baseband and the spectra of the signal and the noise do not overlap. Higher-order spectral features are interpreted in this context and shown to extract nonlinear phase information while retaining robustness. The significance of the result is that prior knowledge of the spectra is not required.

Capstones : transitions and professional identity

The literature identifies transition as a key objective for capstone experiences. Capstones should take account of the particular needs of final year students by assisting them to transition from their student to their professional identity. The authors are currently completing an Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC) funded project, “Curriculum Renewal in Legal Education: articulating final year curriculum design principles and a final year program”, which seeks to achieve curriculum renewal for legal education in the Australian context through the articulation of a set of curriculum design principles for the final year and the design of a transferable model for an effective final year program. The project has investigated the contemporary role of capstones in assisting transition out by reviewing the relevant literature and considering feedback from a project reference group, a final year student focus group and a recent graduate’s focus group. Analysis of this extensive research- and evidence-base suggests that capstone experiences should support transition through: • Assisting students to develop a sense of professional identity; • Consolidating students’ lifelong learning skills; • Providing opportunities for consolidation of career development and planning processes; • Enabling students to enhance professional skills and competencies; and • Preparing students as ethical citizens and leaders. This paper will examine the role of capstones in assisting students to transition to their professional identity and will propose learning and teaching approaches and assessment of learning methods that support transition out.

Phase two of the National Credit Reforms : examining the regulation of payday lenders

This study seeks to analyse the adequacy of the current regulation of the payday lending industry in Australia, and consider whether there is a need for additional regulation to protect consumers of these services. The report examines the different regulatory approaches adopted in comparable OECD countries, and reviews alternative models for payday regulation, in particular, the role played by responsible lending. The study also examines the consumer protection mechanisms now in existence in Australia in the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 (Cth) (NCCP) and the National Credit Code (NCC) contained in Schedule 1 of that Act and in the Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act 2001 (Cth).

Patterns and transitions of query reformulation during web searching

Purpose – To investigate and identify the patterns of interaction between searchers and search engine during web searching. Design/methodology/approach – The authors examined 2,465,145 interactions from 534,507 users of Dogpile.com submitted on May 6, 2005, and compared query reformulation patterns. They investigated the type of query modifications and query modification transitions within sessions. Findings – The paper identifies three strong query reformulation transition patterns: between specialization and generalization; between video and audio, and between content change and system assistance. In addition, the findings show that web and images content were the most popular media collections. Originality/value – This research sheds light on the more complex aspects of web searching involving query modifications.

A longitudinal assessment of chronic wound fluid to detect biochemical indicators of healing

Chronic venous leg ulcers are a detrimental health issue plaguing our society, resulting in long term pain, immobility and decreased quality of life for a large proportion of sufferers. The frequency of these chronic wounds has led current research to focus on the wound environment to provide important information regarding the prolonged, fluctuated or static healing patterns of these wounds. Disruption to the normal wound healing process results in release of multiple factors in the wound environment that could correlate to wound chronicity. These biochemical factors can often be detected through non-invasively sampling chronic wound fluid (CWF) from the site of injury. Of note, whilst there are numerous studies comparing acute and chronic wound fluids, there have not been any reports in the literature employing a longitudinal study in order to track biochemical changes in wound fluid as patients transition from a non-healing to healed state. Initially the objective of this study was to identify biochemical changes in CWF associated with wound healing using a proteomic approach. The proteomic approach incorporated a multi-dimensional liquid chromatography fractionation technique coupled with mass spectrometry (MS) to enable identification of proteins present in lower concentrations in CWF. Not surprisingly, many of the proteins identified in wound fluid were acute phase proteins normally expressed during the inflammatory phase of healing. However, the number of proteins positively identified by MS was quite low. This was attributed to the diverse range in concentration of protein species in CWF making it challenging to detect the diagnostically relevant low molecular weight proteins. In view of this, SELDI-TOF MS was also explored as a means to target low molecular weight proteins in sequential patient CWF samples during the course of healing. Unfortunately, the results generated did not yield any peaks of interest that were altered as wounds transitioned to a healed state. During the course of proteomic assessment of CWF, it became evident that a fraction of non-proteinaceous compounds strongly absorbed at 280 nm. Subsequent analyses confirmed that most of these compounds were in fact part of the purine catabolic pathway, possessing distinctive aromatic rings and which results in high absorbance at 254 nm. The accumulation of these purinogenic compounds in CWF suggests that the wound bed is poorly oxygenated resulting in a switch to anaerobic metabolism and consequently ATP breakdown. In addition, the presence of the terminal purine catabolite, uric acid (UA), indicates that the enzyme xanthine oxidoreductase (XOR) catalyses the reaction of hypoxanthine to xanthine and finally to UA. More importantly, the studies provide evidence for the first time of the exogenous presence of XOR in CWF. XOR is the only enzyme in humans capable of catalysing the production of UA in conjunction with a burst of the highly reactive superoxide radical and other oxidants like H2O2. Excessive release of these free radicals in the wound environment can cause cellular damage disrupting the normal wound healing process. In view of this, a sensitive and specific assay was established for monitoring low concentrations of these catabolites in CWF. This procedure involved combining high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with tandem mass spectrometry and multiple reaction monitoring (MRM). This application was selective, using specific MRM transitions and HPLC separations for each analyte, making it ideal for the detection and quantitation of purine catabolites in CWF. The results demonstrated that elevated levels of UA were detected in wound fluid obtained from patients with clinically worse ulcers. This suggests that XOR is active in the wound site generating significant amounts of reactive oxygen species (ROS). In addition, analysis of the amount of purine precursors in wound fluid revealed elevated levels of purine precursors in wound fluid from patients with less severe ulcers. Taken together, the results generated in this thesis suggest that monitoring changes of purine catabolites in CWF is likely to provide valuable information regarding the healing patterns of chronic venous leg ulcers. XOR catalysis of purine precursors not only provides a method for monitoring the onset, prognosis and progress of chronic venous leg ulcers, but also provides a potential therapeutic target by inhibiting XOR, thus blocking UA and ROS production. Targeting a combination of these purinogenic compounds and XOR could lead to the development of novel point of care diagnostic tests. Therefore, further investigation of these processes during wound healing will be worthwhile and may assist in elucidating the pathogenesis of this disease state, which in turn may lead to the development of new diagnostics and therapies that target these processes.

Footwear modifies coronal plane forefoot and sagittal plane hallux kinematics during stance phase of walking gait

Footwear is designed to reduce injury, and enhance performance. However, the effect footwear has on foot and ankle kinematics currently remains unknown. Acknowledging the need for improved understanding, multi-segment models of the foot-shoe complex need to be established to both describe and quantify the effect footwear has on the foot and ankle during stance phase of gait. The purpose of this study was to quantify how footwear alters the kinematics of the foot inside the shoe during stance phase of walking gait.

Footwear modifies foot and ankle kinematics during stance phase of walking gait

Footwear is designed to reduce injury and enhance performance. However, the effect footwear has on foot and ankle kinematics currently remains unknown. Acknowledging the need for improved understanding, the aim of this study was to describe the effect footwear has on the kinematics of a multi segment foot during stance phase of walking gait.

Infrastructure transitions toward sustainability : a complex adaptive systems perspective

To ensure infrastructure assets are procured and maintained by government on behalf of citizens, appropriate policy and institutional architecture is needed, particularly if a fundamental shift to more sustainable infrastructure is the goal. The shift in recent years from competitive and resource-intensive procurement to more collaborative and sustainable approaches to infrastructure governance is considered a major transition in infrastructure procurement systems. In order to better understand this transition in infrastructure procurement arrangements, the concept of emergence from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory is offered as a key construct. Emergence holds that micro interactions can result in emergent macro order. Applying the concept of emergence to infrastructure procurement, this research examines how interaction of agents in individual projects can result in different industry structural characteristics. The paper concludes that CAS theory, and particularly the concept of ‘emergence’, provides a useful construct to understand infrastructure procurement dynamics and progress towards sustainability.

Project 2.7 Leveraging R&D Investment for the Australian built environment : Phase 2 Case Study Reports Part 1 - Overview of Findings

This report provides an overview of findings of qualitative research comprising three case studies undertaken as a part of the retrospective analysis component of Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre (SBEnrc) Project 2.7 Leveraging R&D investment for the Australian Built Environment. These case studies (see Parts 2, 3 and 4 of this suite of reports) were undertaken to illustrate the nature of past R&D investments in Australia. This was done to complement: (i) the audit and analysis of past R&D investment undertaken by Thomas Barlow (2011); and (ii) the Construction 2030 roadmap being developed by Swinburne University of Technology and Professor Göran Roos from VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. These documents will be the basis for the final phase of the present project - developing policy guidelines for future R&D investment in the Australian built environment. Refer also Parts 1, 2 and 3 for detail findings.