A capture–recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 × 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture–recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture–recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

The effect of consumption volume on profile and liking of oral nutritional supplements of varied sweetness: sequential profiling and boredom tests

Oral nutrition supplements (ONS) are routinely prescribed to those with, or at risk of, malnutrition. Previous research identified poor compliance due to taste and sweetness. This paper investigates taste and hedonic liking of ONS, of varying sweetness and metallic levels, over consumption volume; an important consideration as patients are prescribed large volumes of ONS daily. A sequential descriptive profile was developed to determine the perception of sensory attributes over repeat consumption of ONS. Changes in liking of ONS following repeat consumption were characterised by a boredom test. Certain flavour (metallic taste, soya milk flavour) and mouthfeel (mouthdrying, mouthcoating) attributes built up over increased consumption volume (p 0.002). Hedonic liking data from two cohorts, healthy older volunteers (n = 32, median age 73) and patients (n = 28, median age 85), suggested such build-up was disliked. Efforts made to improve the palatability of ONS must take account of the build up of taste and mouthfeel characteristics over increased consumption volume.

Phyto-activity of biocides used to manipulate herbivory: tests of three pesticides on fourteen plant species

1. We tested three pesticides used for field manipulations of herbivory for direct phytoactive effects on the germination and growth of 14 herbaceous plant species selected to provide a range of life-history strategies and functional groups. 2. We report three companion experiments: (A) Two insecticides, chlorpyrifos (granular soil insecticide) and dimethoate (foliar spray), were applied in fully-factorial combination to pot-germinated individuals of 12 species. (B) The same fully-factorial design was used to test for direct effects on the germination of four herbaceous legumes. (C) The molluscicide, metaldehyde, was tested for direct effects on the germination and growth of six plant species. 3. The insecticides had few significant effects on growth and germination. Dimethoate acted only on growth stimulating Anisantha sterilis, Sonchus asper and Stellaria graminea. In contrast, chlorpyrifos acted on germination increasing the germination of Trifolium dubium and Trifolium pratense. There was also a significant interactive effect of chlorpyrifos and dimethoate on the germination of T pratense. However, all. effects were relatively small in magnitude and explanatory power. The molluscicide had no significant effect on plant germination or growth. 4. The small number and size of direct effects of the pesticides on plant performance is encouraging for the use of these pesticides in manipulative experiments on herbivory, especially for the molluscicide. However, a smatt number of direct (positive) effects of the insecticides on some plant species need to be taken into account when interpreting field manipulations of herbivory with these compounds, and emphasises the importance of conducting tests for direct phyto-active effects. (C) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A capture-recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 x 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture-recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture-recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

Detection of frailty in Weibull lifetime data using Outlier tests

Heterogeneity in lifetime data may be modelled by multiplying an individual's hazard by an unobserved frailty. We test for the presence of frailty of this kind in univariate and bivariate data with Weibull distributed lifetimes, using statistics based on the ordered Cox-Snell residuals from the null model of no frailty. The form of the statistics is suggested by outlier testing in the gamma distribution. We find through simulation that the sum of the k largest or k smallest order statistics, for suitably chosen k , provides a powerful test when the frailty distribution is assumed to be gamma or positive stable, respectively. We provide recommended values of k for sample sizes up to 100 and simple formulae for estimated critical values for tests at the 5% level.

Tests of MULTIMODE calculations of rovibrational energies of CH4

We report variational calculations of rovibrational energies of CH4 using the code MULTIMODE and an ab initio force field of Schwenke and Partridge. The systematic convergence of the energies with respect to the level of mode coupling is presented. Converged vibrational energies calculated using the five-mode representation of the potential for zero total angular momentum are compared with previous, benchmark calculations based on Radau coordinates using this force field for zero total angular momentum and for J = 1. Very good agreement with the previous benchmark calculations is found. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ventilation rates in schools and pupil’s performance using computerized assessment tests

Research shows that poor indoor air quality (IAQ) in school buildings can cause a reduction in the students’ performance assessed by short-term computer-based tests; whereas good air quality in classrooms can enhance children's concentration and also teachers’ productivity. Investigation of air quality in classrooms helps us to characterise pollutant levels and implement corrective measures. Outdoor pollution, ventilation equipment, furnishings, and human activities affect IAQ. In school classrooms, the occupancy density is high (1.8–2.4 m2/person) compared to offices (10 m2/person). Ventilation systems expend energy and there is a trend to save energy by reducing ventilation rates. We need to establish the minimum acceptable level of fresh air required for the health of the occupants. This paper describes a project, which will aim to investigate the effect of IAQ and ventilation rates on pupils’ performance and health using psychological tests. The aim is to recommend suitable ventilation rates for classrooms and examine the suitability of the air quality guidelines for classrooms. The air quality, ventilation rates and pupils’ performance in classrooms will be evaluated in parallel measurements. In addition, Visual Analogue Scales will be used to assess subjective perception of the classroom environment and SBS symptoms. Pupil performance will be measured with Computerised Assessment Tests (CAT), and Pen and Paper Performance Tasks while physical parameters of the classroom environment will be recorded using an advanced data logging system. A total number of 20 primary schools in the Reading area are expected to participate in the present investigation, and the pupils participating in this study will be within the age group of 9–11 years. On completion of the project, based on the overall data recommendations for suitable ventilation rates for schools will be formulated.

Childhood abuse and schizotypal personality

Introduction There is an increasing body of evidence suggesting an association between early adverse events and an increased prevalence of sub-clinical psychotic phenomena. These 'schizotypal' beliefs and experiences have been associated with a history of trauma, and are also recognised as a risk factor for the transition to psychosis. However, previous studies have not investigated the associations between specific types of adverse event and the distinct dimensions of such phenomena. Methods An internet questionnaire produced three groups of participants who had suffered discrete forms of childhood abuse. Results Individuals who had suffered physical or sexual abuse exhibited higher levels of paranoia/suspiciousness and unusual perceptual experiences, but not magical thinking. Individuals who had suffered emotional abuse did not show higher scores within any of these three measures of schizotypy. Conclusion The results suggest the need for further research to improve the specificity of the identification of individuals who may be at risk of a transition to psychosis.

Tests of syntactic comprehension in aphasia: an investigation of task effects

Background: Consistency of performance across tasks that assess syntactic comprehension in aphasia has clinical and theoretical relevance. In this paper we add to the relatively sparse previous work on how sentence comprehension abilities are influenced by the nature of the assessment task. Aims: Our aims are: (1) to compare linguistic performance across sentence-picture matching, enactment, and truth-value judgement tasks; (2) to investigate the impact of pictorial stimuli on syntactic comprehension. Methods Procedures: We tested a group of 10 aphasic speakers (3 with fluent and 7 with non-fluent aphasia) in three tasks (Experiment 1): (i) sentence-picture matching with four pictures, (ii) sentence-picture matching with two pictures, and (iii) enactment. A further task of truth-value judgement was given to a subgroup of those speakers (n=5, Experiment 2). Similar sentence types across all tasks were used and included canonical (actives, subject clefts) and non-canonical (passives, object clefts) sentences. We undertook two types of analyses: (a) we compared canonical and non-canonical sentences in each task; (b) we compared performance between (i) actives and passives, (ii) subject and object clefts in each task. We examined the results of all participants as a group and as case-series. Outcomes Results: Several task effects emerged. Overall, the two-picture sentence-picture matching and enactment tasks were more discriminating than the four-picture condition. Group performance in the truth-value judgement task was similar to two-picture sentence-picture matching and enactment. At the individual level performance across tasks contrasted to some group results. Conclusions: Our findings revealed task effects across participants. We discuss reasons that could explain the diverse profiles of performance and the implications for clinical practice.

Significance tests in climate science

A large fraction of papers in the climate literature includes erroneous uses of significance tests. A Bayesian analysis is presented to highlight the meaning of significance tests and why typical misuse occurs. The significance statistic is not a quantitative measure of how confident we can be of the ‘reality’ of a given result. It is concluded that a significance test very rarely provides useful quantitative information.

Blood-clotting response tests for resistance to diphacinone and chlorophacinone in the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus Berk.)

Resistance baselines were obtained for the first generation anticoagulant rodenticides chlorophacinone and diphacinone using laboratory, caesarian-derived Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) as the susceptible strain and the blood clotting response test method. The ED99 estimates for a quantal response were: chlorophacinone, males 0.86 mg kg−1, females 1.03 mg kg−1; diphacinone, males 1.26 mg kg−1, females 1.60 mg kg−1. The dose-response data also showed that chlorophacinone was significantly (p<0.0001) more potent than diphacinone for both male and female rats, and that male rats were more susceptible than females to both compounds (p<0.002). The ED99 doses were then given to groups of five male and five female rats of the Welsh and Hampshire warfarin-resistant strains. Twenty-four hours later, prothrombin times were slightly elevated in both strains but all the animals were classified as resistant to the two compounds, indicating cross-resistance from warfarin to diphacinone and chlorophacinone. When rats of the two resistant strains were fed for six consecutive days on baits containing either diphacinone or chlorophacinone, many animals survived, indicating that their resistance might enable them to survive treatments with these compounds in the field.