So Why Did the Guns Fall Silent? How Interplay, not Stalemate, Explains the Northern Ireland Peace Process

The precise rationale for, and timing of, the Northern Ireland peace process of the 1990s and beyond, which developed after more than two decades of conflict, has yet to be fully explained. It has been a common assumption that it arose from a stalemate involving the Irish Republican Army (IRA), the 'regular' pro-state forces of the British Army and Royal Ulster Constabulary and the 'irregular/ultra' pro-state loyalist paramilitary groups of the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and Ulster Defence Association (UDA). Under this interpretation, military/paramilitary deadlock led to ripeness for peace, amid reappraisals by all parties to the conflict of the utility of violence accompanied by reinterpretations of earlier political orthodoxies. The IRA could not remove the British sovereign claim to Northern Ireland; British forces could not militarily defeat the IRA and loyalists and republicans were engaged in a futile inter-communal sectarian war. This stalemate thesis has obvious attraction in explaining why a seemingly intractable war finally subsided, but is less convincing when subject to empirical testing among republican and loyalist participants in the conflict. This article moves away from 'top-down' generalist narratives of the onset of peace, which tend to argue the stalemate thesis, to assess 'bottom-up' interpretations from the actual combatants as to why they ceased fighting. It suggests an asymmetry, rather than mutuality, of perception that there was 'military' cessation by the armed non-state groups, with neither republican nor loyalist interpretations grounded in notions of stalemate. The article concludes by urging a wider consideration of the important and persistent interplay of the military and political in conflicts such as Northern Ireland.

The Geography of Conflict and Death in Belfast, Northern Ireland

The conflict known as the oTroubleso in Northern Ireland began during the late 1960s and is defined by political and ethno-sectarian violence between state, pro-state, and anti-state forces. Reasons for the conflict are contested and complicated by social, religious, political, and cultural disputes, with much of the debate concerning the victims of violence hardened by competing propaganda-conditioning perspectives. This article introduces a database holding information on the location of individual fatalities connected with the contemporary Irish conflict. For each victim, it includes a demographic profile, home address, manner of death, and the organization responsible. Employing geographic information system (GIS) techniques, the database is used to measure, map, and analyze the spatial distribution of conflict-related deaths between 1966 and 2007 across Belfast, the capital city of Northern Ireland, with respect to levels of segregation, social and economic deprivation, and interfacing. The GIS analysis includes a kernel density estimator designed to generate smooth intensity surfaces of the conflict-related deaths by both incident and home locations. Neighborhoods with high-intensity surfaces of deaths were those with the highest levels of segregation ( 90 percent Catholic or Protestant) and deprivation, and they were located near physical barriers, the so-called peacelines, between predominantly Catholic and predominantly Protestant communities. Finally, despite the onset of peace and the formation of a power-sharing and devolved administration (the Northern Ireland Assembly), disagreements remain over the responsibility and ocommemorationo of victims, sentiments that still uphold division and atavistic attitudes between spatially divided Catholic and Protestant populations.

The Battle of the Somme in Ulster memory and identity

One of the enduring illusions about Northern Ireland is that its society can be conceptualized through a binary distinction between protestant and catholic. unionist and nationalist. It is increasingly apparent that these broad domains are themselves fractured and diverse and that otherness is often conceived from within rather than without. Northern Ireland can also be viewed as a laboratory for identity formation as unionists and loyalists strive to reconcile themselves with the fundamental political changes that have followed in the wake of the Peace Process. This paper considers one aspect of the contestation of belonging that increasingly characterizes unionism. It examines the competition for the ownership of the mythology of the Battle of the Somme ( 1916), long a key event in the unionist narrative. In particular, the paper addresses the ways in which paramilitary organizations are using the Somme to legitimate their own activities but also to distance the loyalist working classes from the former hegemonic Britishness of official unionism and the sectarianism of the Orange Order. The analysis concludes that loyalist identity is being conceptualized thorough a narrative of betrayal from within and at an intensely localized scale.

The contours of memory in post-conflict societies: enacting public remembrance of the bomb in Omagh, Northern Ireland

Drawing on the theoretical insights of Paul Ricoeur this paper investigates the geographies of public remembrance in a post-conflict society. In Northern Ireland, where political divisions have found expression through acts of extreme violence over the past 30 years, questions of memory and an amnesty for forgetting have particular resonance both at the individual and societal level, and render Ricoeur’s framework particularly prescient. Since the signing of the Belfast Agreement in 1998, initiating the Peace Process through consociational structures, discovering a nomenclature and set of practices which would aid in the rapprochement of a deeply divided society has presented a complex array of issues. In this paper I examine the various practices of public remembrance of the 1998 bombing of Omagh as a means of understanding how memory-spaces evolve in a post-conflict context. In Omagh there were a variety of commemorative practices instituted and each, in turn, adopted a different contour towards achieving reconciliation with the violence and grief of the bombing. In particular the Garden of Light project is analysed as a collective monument which, with light as its metaphysical centre, invited the populace to reflect backward on the pain of the bombing while at the same time enabling the society to look forward toward a peaceful future where a politics of hope might eclipse a politics of despair.

Sectarian and Nonsectarian Violence: Mothers' Appraisals of Political Conflict in Northern Ireland

Past research on peace and conflict in Northern Ireland has focused on politically motivated violence. However, other types of crime (i.e., nonsectarian) also impact community members. To study the changing nature of violence since the signing of the Belfast Agreement in Northern Ireland, we used a qualitative approach and the Constant Comparative Method to analyze focus group discussions with mothers from segregated Belfast neighborhoods. Participants articulated clear differences between sectarian and nonsectarian violence, and further distinguished sectarian violence along 2 dimensions—overt acts and perceived intergroup threat. Although both sectarian and nonsectarian antisocial behavior related to insecurity, participants described pulling together and increased ingroup social cohesion in response to sectarian incidents. The findings have implications for the study of violence and insecurity as experienced in the everyday lives of mothers, youth, and families in settings of protracted conflict.

How different are the correlates of onset and continuation of civil wars?

It is very common to analyse the factors associated with the onset and continuation of civil wars entirely separately, as if there were likely to be no similarity between them. This is an overstatement of the theoretical position, which has established only that they may be different (i.e. less than perfectly correlated). The hypothesis that the explanatory variables are the same is not theoretically excludable and is empirically testable, both for individual variables and for combinations of them. Starting from this approach yields a rather different picture of the factors associated with the continuation of civil wars, because the relatively small sample size means that confidence intervals on individual coefficients are wide in this case. It is shown here that country size, mountainous terrain and (in most datasets) ethnic diversity seem significant for the continuation of civil wars, starting from the null hypothesis that variables affect onset and continuation probabilities identically, rather than entirely independently. One variable that affects onset and continuation significantly differently is anocracy, which we find to matter only for onset. Civil war is more likely if it occurred two years previously, as well as one year previously, which indicates that wars are more likely to restart after only one year of peace, and also more likely to stop in their first year. The combined model strengthens the result that ethnic diversity matters (it is consistently significant across datasets, whereas it is not when onset is analysed separately), although in the UCD/PRIO dataset it is significant only for onset. By contrast, if continuation is analysed independently, virtually nothing is significant except a pre-1991 dummy and a dummy for civil war two years previously.

Devolution and the politics of development in Northern Ireland

The reintroduction of devolution in Northern Ireland is widely interpreted as the working out of the Belfast Agreement (1998) which aimed to embed political consensus in shared institutions of the state. However, such analysis tends to be limited with regard to wider political economy readings of the devolution project and historic struggles to find an appropriate institutional fix to manage different
forms of crisis. Peace and stability have, it is argued, permitted Northern Ireland's reentry to global markets and circuits of capital with new governance structures being assembled to reconfigure `post- conflict' economic space. We argue that the onset of devolution has promoted a mix between ethnosectarian resource competition and a constantly expanding neoliberal model of governance.
Devolved neoliberal structures that sustain social polarisation may perpetuate strategies of resistance that could cut across and challenge ethnosectarian politics and deepening social segregation.

Building bridging social capital in a divided society: The role of participatory citizenship education

Participatory citizenship education has been highlighted as a strategy to promote social cohesion in divided societies whereby collaborations with Non-Governmental Organisations and inter-school links have been proposed as tools to improve social networks between schools and communities. This article explores the role and meaning of citizenship education and cross-community participation in promoting social capital and social cohesion. School survey findings, focus groups and interviews with young people and educators indicated that differences between school sectors and established allegiances with particular communities and NGOs may limit the potential for citizenship education to produce bridging social capital and serve to reproduce bonding social capital. It is argued that the introduction of citizenship curricula into segregated schools systems in divided societies may be useful to promote citizenship values and positive attitudes to the other but insufficient to promote the development of bridging social capital and, ultimately, social cohesion in the long term.

Emission lines of Fe XI in the 257-407 A wavelength region observed in solar spectra from EIS/Hinode and SERTS

Theoretical emission-line ratios involving Fe xi transitions in the 257-407 A wavelength range are derived using fully relativistic calculations of radiative rates and electron impact excitation cross-sections. These are subsequently compared with both long wavelength channel Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) spectra from the Hinode satellite (covering 245-291 A) and first-order observations (similar to 235-449 A) obtained by the Solar Extreme-ultraviolet Research Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS). The 266.39, 266.60 and 276.36 A lines of Fe xi are detected in two EIS spectra, confirming earlier identifications of these features, and 276.36 A is found to provide an electron density (N-e) diagnostic when ratioed against the 257.55 A transition. Agreement between theory and observation is found to be generally good for the SERTS data sets, with discrepancies normally being due to known line blends, while the 257.55 A feature is detected for the first time in SERTS spectra. The most useful Fe xi electron density diagnostic is found to be the 308.54/352.67 intensity ratio, which varies by a factor of 8.4 between N-e = 108 and 1011 cm-3, while showing little temperature sensitivity. However, the 349.04/352.67 ratio potentially provides a superior diagnostic, as it involves lines which are closer in wavelength, and varies by a factor of 14.7 between N-e = 108 and 1011 cm-3. Unfortunately, the 349.04 A line is relatively weak, and also blended with the second-order Fe x 174.52 A feature, unless the first-order instrument response is enhanced.