Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

The environmental impacts of technical change

The thesis is concerned with relationships between profit, technology and environmental change. Existing work has concentrated on only a few questions, treated at either micro or macro levels of analysis. And there has been something of an impasse since the neoclassical and neomarxist approaches are either in direct conflict (macro level), or hardly interact (micro level). The aim of the thesis was to bypass this impasse by starting to develop a meso level of analysis that focusses on issues largely ignored in the traditional approaches - on questions about distribution. The first questions looked at were descriptive - what were the patterns of distribution over time of the variability in types and rates of environmental change, and in particular, was there any evidence of periodization? Two case studies were used to examine these issues. The first looked at environmental change in the iron and steel industry since 1700, and the second studied pollution in five industries in the basic processing sector. It was established that environmental change has been markedly periodized, with an apparently fairly regular `cycle length' of about fifty years. The second questions considered were explanatory - whether and how this periodization could be accounted for by reference to variations in aspects of profitability and technical change. In the iron and steel industry, it was found that diffusion rates and the rate of nature of innovation were periodized on the same pattern as was environmental change. And the same sort of variation was also present in the realm of profits, as evidenced by cyclical changes in output growth. Simple theoretical accounts could be given for all the empirically demonstrable links, and it was suggested that the most useful models at this meso level of analysis are provided by structural change models of economic development.

Informational institutions in the agrifood sector:meta-information and meta-governance of environmental sustainability

In the agrifood sector, the explosive increase in information about environmental sustainability, often in uncoordinated information systems, has created a new form of ignorance ('meta-ignorance') that diminishes the effectiveness of information on decision-makers. Flows of information are governed by informal and formal social arrangements that we can collectively call Informational Institutions. In this paper, we have reviewed the recent literature on such institutions. From the perspectives of information theory and new institutional economics, current informational institutions are increasing the information entropy of communications concerning environmental sustainability and stakeholders' transaction costs of using relevant information. In our view this reduces the effectiveness of informational governance. Future research on informational governance should explicitly address these aspects.

Stabilization of catalyst particles against sintering on oxide supports with high oxygen ion lability exemplified by Ir-catalyzed decomposition of N2O

Iridium nanoparticles deposited on a variety of surfaces exhibited thermal sintering characteristics that were very strongly correlated with the lability of lattice oxygen in the supporting oxide materials. Specifically, the higher the lability of oxygen ions in the support, the greater the resistance of the nanoparticles to sintering in an oxidative environment. Thus with γ-Al2O3 as the support, rapid and extensive sintering occurred. In striking contrast, when supported on gadolinia-ceria and alumina-ceria-zirconia composite, the Ir nanoparticles underwent negligible sintering. In keeping with this trend, the behavior found with yttria-stabilized zirconia was an intermediate between the two extremes. This resistance, or lack of resistance, to sintering is considered in terms of oxygen spillover from support to nanoparticles and discussed with respect to the alternative mechanisms of Ostwald ripening versus nanoparticle diffusion. Activity towards the decomposition of N2O, a reaction that displays pronounced sensitivity to catalyst particle size (large particles more active than small particles), was used to confirm that catalytic behavior was consistent with the independently measured sintering characteristics. It was found that the nanoparticle active phase was Ir oxide, which is metallic, possibly present as a capping layer. Moreover, observed turnover frequencies indicated that catalyst-support interactions were important in the cases of the sinter-resistant systems, an effect that may itself be linked to the phenomena that gave rise to materials with a strong resistance to nanoparticle sintering.

Some aspects of European climate policy

Being heavily energy dependent, it is not much of a surprise that Europe pays special attention to reducing the use of fossil fuels. Each one of the ten new member states is characterized by relatively low per capita energy consumption and relatively low energy efficiency, and the share of renewables in their energy mix tends to be low, too. The paper examines the problem, when the policy measures create a decrease in environmental capital instead of an increase. In this case it hardly seems justified to talk about environmental protection. The authors describe a case of a rapeseed oil mill which would not be of too much interest on its own but given that almost all similar plants went bankrupt, there are some important lessons to learn from its survival. The enterprise the authors examined aimed at establishing a micro-regional network. They completed a brown-field development to establish a small plant on the premises of a former large agricultural cooperative. By partnering with the former employees and suppliers of the sometime cooperative, they enjoyed some benefits which all the other green-field businesses focusing on fuel production could not. The project improved food security, energy security and population retention as well.

Környezeti kritériumok a beszállítóértékelésben = Green aspects of supplier evaluation

A környezeti szempontok figyelembe vétele egyre gyakoribb mind a szakirodalomban, mind a vállalati gyakorlatban. Ezt mutatja az is, hogy egyre növekszik a zöld szempontokat feldolgozó tanulmányok és szakcikkek száma. Emellett a kutatók egyre több környezeti kritériumot magukba foglaló, összetett módszertant dolgoznak ki az optimális beszállító kiválasztásához. A tanulmány célja, hogy bemutassa, illetve rendszerezze a zöld szempontokat a beszállítóértékelésben, illetve rámutasson arra, hogy mekkora eszköztár áll már most rendelkezésre a vállalatok részére, amennyiben nem csak hagyományos kritériumokat kívánnak felhasználni a beszállítóik értékelésekor. Foglalkozik azzal, hogy melyek azok a fő motivációk, amelyek miatt érdemes a vállalatoknak zöld szempontokat integrálniuk a beszállítóértékelő rendszerükbe. A kutatás alapján az derült ki, hogy nem csak a törvényi előírások a fő mozgatórugók a vállalatoknál, hogy beszállítóikat környezeti szempontból is mérjék. Ugyanakkor egyelőre a vállalatok leginkább a környezeti menedzsment rendszer meglétét vizsgálják a beszállítóiknál és kevés egyéb a szakirodalomban már megjelent zöld szempontot vesznek figyelembe. Ugyanez vonatkozik a módszertanra is, hiszen a vállalati gyakorlatból az derült ki, hogy kevésbé használják a szakirodalomban kidolgozott, összetett módszereket, hanem sokkal inkább a könnyen mérhető, kevesebb szempontot magukba foglaló eszközöket alkalmazzák. _______ Environmental criteria became more and more prevalent in the past not only in the literature but also in the companies practice. This is shown by the growing numbers of articles about green criteria. Alongside this, researchers are creating more and more methodologies for the selection of suppliers which contains environmental criteria. The purpose of this paper is to present and structure green criteria and to point out what a great selection of methodologies are available for the companies if they want to use not only the traditional criteria but environmentals too. Besides, in this research I present the most common motivations which can cause the introduction of green criteria in supplier evaluation. It was found that not the governmental requirements are the only motivations for companies. However, for the present, companies use mostly for green criteria the environmental management system if it is introduced at their suppliers or not and do not consider more, altough they are available in the literature. The same statement is appertain to the methodologies because it was found that companies rather than using the complex, elaborated ones, they search for the easily measurable methodologies which contains less criteria.

Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Novel analytical methodologies for the monitoring of traditional and non-traditional pollutants in different environmental compartments of South Florida

Routine monitoring of environmental pollution demands simplicity and speed without sacrificing sensitivity or accuracy. The development and application of sensitive, fast and easy to implement analytical methodologies for detecting emerging and traditional water and airborne contaminants in South Florida is presented. A novel method was developed for quantification of the herbicide glyphosate based on lyophilization followed by derivatization and simultaneous detection by fluorescence and mass spectrometry. Samples were analyzed from water canals that will hydrate estuarine wetlands of Biscayne National Park, detecting inputs of glyphosate from both aquatic usage and agricultural runoff from farms. A second study describes a set of fast, automated LC-MS/MS protocols for the analysis of dioctyl sulfosuccinate (DOSS) and 2-butoxyethanol, two components of Corexit®. Around 1.8 million gallons of those dispersant formulations were used in the response efforts for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010. The methods presented here allow the trace-level detection of these compounds in seawater, crude oil and commercial dispersants formulations. In addition, two methodologies were developed for the analysis of well-known pollutants, namely Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and airborne particulate matter (APM). PAHs are ubiquitous environmental contaminants and some are potent carcinogens. Traditional GC-MS analysis is labor-intensive and consumes large amounts of toxic solvents. My study provides an alternative automated SPE-LC-APPI-MS/MS analysis with minimal sample preparation and a lower solvent consumption. The system can inject, extract, clean, separate and detect 28 PAHs and 15 families of alkylated PAHs in 28 minutes. The methodology was tested with environmental samples from Miami. Airborne Particulate Matter is a mixture of particles of chemical and biological origin. Assessment of its elemental composition is critical for the protection of sensitive ecosystems and public health. The APM collected from Port Everglades between 2005 and 2010 was analyzed by ICP-MS after acid digestion of filters. The most abundant elements were Fe and Al, followed by Cu, V and Zn. Enrichment factors show that hazardous elements (Cd, Pb, As, Co, Ni and Cr) are introduced by anthropogenic activities. Data suggest that the major sources of APM were an electricity plant, road dust, industrial emissions and marine vessels.

Essays on intergenerational and regional aspects of water management

This dissertation consists of three essays on different aspects of water management. The first essay focuses on the sustainability of freshwater use by introducing the notion that altruistic parents do bequeath economic assets for their offspring. Constructing a two-period, over-lapping generational model, an optimal ratio of consumption and pollution for old and young generations in each period is determined. Optimal levels of water consumption and pollution change according to different parameters, such as, altruistic degree, natural recharge rate, and population growth. The second essay concerns water sharing between countries in the case of trans-boundary river basins. The paper recognizes that side payments fail to forge water-sharing agreement among the international community and that downstream countries have weak bargaining power. An interconnected game approach is developed by linking the water allocation issue with other non-water issues such as trade or border security problems, creating symmetry between countries in bargaining power. An interconnected game forces two countries to at least partially cooperate under some circumstances. The third essay introduces the concept of virtual water (VW) into a traditional international trade model in order to estimate water savings for a water scarce country. A two country, two products and two factors trade model is developed, which includes not only consumers and producer's surplus, but also environmental externality of water use. The model shows that VW trade saves water and increases global and local welfare. This study should help policy makers to design appropriate subsidy or tax policy to promote water savings especially in water scarce countries.^

Regional aspects of Miami crime fiction

This thesis argues that forces of literary regionalism and postmodern culture are behind the explosion of crime fiction being written in and about South Florida by a growing number of resident authors. Research included four methods of investigation: 1. A critical reading of many of the novels that make up the sub-genre. 2. A study of the theories of regionalism, postmodernism and the genre of the crime fiction. 3. Interviews with a number of the authors and a prominent Miami book seller. 4. Sociological studies of Miami in terms of historical events and their cultural significance. Today's South Florida crime fiction authors cast their narratives in the old genre of the detective novel where characters are delineated according to traditional definitions of good and evil. Evil characters threaten established order. What makes South Florida crime fiction different from traditional detective fiction is its interest in the exotic, postmodern culture and setting of South Florida. Like the region, the villains are exotic and the order that they threaten is postmodern. There is less of an interest in attributing a larger social meaning to the heroes. Rather, there is an ontological interest in the playing out of good against evil in an almost mythical setting that magnifies economic, environmental and racial issues. There is a unique cultural diversity of the city due to the geographical location of Miami in relationship to Latin America and the Caribbean, and the political forces at work in the region. South Florida's subtropical climate, fragile ecosystem, and elements of frontier life in a cosmopolitan city work to support Miami crime fiction. The setting personifies the unpredictability and pastiche of a postmodern world and may call for a new definition for literature that relies on non-traditional regional characteristics.

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Vertical profiles of environmental parameters measured from physical, optical and imaging sensors during station TARA_200 of the Tara Oceans expedition 2009-2013

The Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013) sampled the world oceans on board a 36 m long schooner, collecting environmental data and organisms from viruses to planktonic metazoans for later analyses using modern sequencing and state-of-the-art imaging technologies. Tara Oceans Data are particularly suited to study the genetic, morphological and functional diversity of plankton. The present data set includes properties of seawater, particulate matter and dissolved matter from physical, optical and imaging sensors mounted on a vertical sampling system (Rosette) used during the 2009-2013 tara Oceans Expedition. It comprised 2 pairs of conductivity and temperature sensors (SEABIRD components), and a complete set of WEtLabs optical sensors, including chrorophyll and CDOM fluorometers, a 25 cm transmissiometer, and a one-wavelength backscatter meter. In addition, a SATLANTIC ISUS nitrate sensor and a Hydroptic Underwater Vision Profiler (UVP) were mounted on the rosette. In the Arctic Ocean and Arctic Seas (2013), a second oxygen sensor (SBE43) and a four frequency Aquascat acoustic profiler were added. The system was powered on specific Li-Ion batteries and data were self-recorded at 24HZ. Sensors have all been factory calibrated before, during and after the four year program. Oxygen was validated using climatologies (WOA09). Nitrate and Fluorescence data were adjusted with discrete measurements from Niskin bottles mounted on the Rosette, and optical darks were performed monthly on board. A total of 839 quality checked vertical profiles were made during the tara Oceans expedition 2009-2013.

Vertical profiles of environmental parameters measured from physical, optical and imaging sensors during station TARA_201 of the Tara Oceans expedition 2009-2013

The Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013) sampled the world oceans on board a 36 m long schooner, collecting environmental data and organisms from viruses to planktonic metazoans for later analyses using modern sequencing and state-of-the-art imaging technologies. Tara Oceans Data are particularly suited to study the genetic, morphological and functional diversity of plankton. The present data set includes properties of seawater, particulate matter and dissolved matter from physical, optical and imaging sensors mounted on a vertical sampling system (Rosette) used during the 2009-2013 tara Oceans Expedition. It comprised 2 pairs of conductivity and temperature sensors (SEABIRD components), and a complete set of WEtLabs optical sensors, including chrorophyll and CDOM fluorometers, a 25 cm transmissiometer, and a one-wavelength backscatter meter. In addition, a SATLANTIC ISUS nitrate sensor and a Hydroptic Underwater Vision Profiler (UVP) were mounted on the rosette. In the Arctic Ocean and Arctic Seas (2013), a second oxygen sensor (SBE43) and a four frequency Aquascat acoustic profiler were added. The system was powered on specific Li-Ion batteries and data were self-recorded at 24HZ. Sensors have all been factory calibrated before, during and after the four year program. Oxygen was validated using climatologies (WOA09). Nitrate and Fluorescence data were adjusted with discrete measurements from Niskin bottles mounted on the Rosette, and optical darks were performed monthly on board. A total of 839 quality checked vertical profiles were made during the tara Oceans expedition 2009-2013.

Vertical profiles of environmental parameters measured from physical, optical and imaging sensors during station TARA_202 of the Tara Oceans expedition 2009-2013

The Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013) sampled the world oceans on board a 36 m long schooner, collecting environmental data and organisms from viruses to planktonic metazoans for later analyses using modern sequencing and state-of-the-art imaging technologies. Tara Oceans Data are particularly suited to study the genetic, morphological and functional diversity of plankton. The present data set includes properties of seawater, particulate matter and dissolved matter from physical, optical and imaging sensors mounted on a vertical sampling system (Rosette) used during the 2009-2013 tara Oceans Expedition. It comprised 2 pairs of conductivity and temperature sensors (SEABIRD components), and a complete set of WEtLabs optical sensors, including chrorophyll and CDOM fluorometers, a 25 cm transmissiometer, and a one-wavelength backscatter meter. In addition, a SATLANTIC ISUS nitrate sensor and a Hydroptic Underwater Vision Profiler (UVP) were mounted on the rosette. In the Arctic Ocean and Arctic Seas (2013), a second oxygen sensor (SBE43) and a four frequency Aquascat acoustic profiler were added. The system was powered on specific Li-Ion batteries and data were self-recorded at 24HZ. Sensors have all been factory calibrated before, during and after the four year program. Oxygen was validated using climatologies (WOA09). Nitrate and Fluorescence data were adjusted with discrete measurements from Niskin bottles mounted on the Rosette, and optical darks were performed monthly on board. A total of 839 quality checked vertical profiles were made during the tara Oceans expedition 2009-2013.

Vertical profiles of environmental parameters measured from physical, optical and imaging sensors during station TARA_204 of the Tara Oceans expedition 2009-2013

The Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013) sampled the world oceans on board a 36 m long schooner, collecting environmental data and organisms from viruses to planktonic metazoans for later analyses using modern sequencing and state-of-the-art imaging technologies. Tara Oceans Data are particularly suited to study the genetic, morphological and functional diversity of plankton. The present data set includes properties of seawater, particulate matter and dissolved matter from physical, optical and imaging sensors mounted on a vertical sampling system (Rosette) used during the 2009-2013 tara Oceans Expedition. It comprised 2 pairs of conductivity and temperature sensors (SEABIRD components), and a complete set of WEtLabs optical sensors, including chrorophyll and CDOM fluorometers, a 25 cm transmissiometer, and a one-wavelength backscatter meter. In addition, a SATLANTIC ISUS nitrate sensor and a Hydroptic Underwater Vision Profiler (UVP) were mounted on the rosette. In the Arctic Ocean and Arctic Seas (2013), a second oxygen sensor (SBE43) and a four frequency Aquascat acoustic profiler were added. The system was powered on specific Li-Ion batteries and data were self-recorded at 24HZ. Sensors have all been factory calibrated before, during and after the four year program. Oxygen was validated using climatologies (WOA09). Nitrate and Fluorescence data were adjusted with discrete measurements from Niskin bottles mounted on the Rosette, and optical darks were performed monthly on board. A total of 839 quality checked vertical profiles were made during the tara Oceans expedition 2009-2013.