Massive stars exploding in a He-rich circumstellar medium - VI. Observations of two distant Type Ibn supernova candidates discovered by La Silla-QUEST

We present optical observations of the peculiar stripped-envelope supernovae (SNe) LSQ12btw and LSQ13ccw discovered by the La Silla-QUEST survey. LSQ12btw reaches an absolute peak magnitude of M-g = -19.3 +/- 0.2, and shows an asymmetric light curve. Stringent pre-discovery limits constrain its rise time to maximum light to less than 4 d, with a slower post-peak luminosity decline, similar to that experienced by the prototypical SN Ibn 2006jc. LSQ13ccw is somewhat different: while it also exhibits a very fast rise to maximum, it reaches a fainter absolute peak magnitude (M-g =-18.4 +/- 0.2), and experiences an extremely rapid post-peak decline similar to that observed in the peculiar SN Ib 2002bj. A stringent pre-discovery limit and an early marginal detection of LSQ13ccw allow us to determine the explosion time with an uncertainty of +/- 1 d. The spectra of LSQ12btw show the typical narrow He I emission lines characterizing Type Ibn SNe, suggesting that the SN ejecta are interacting with He-rich circumstellar material. The He I lines in the spectra of LSQ13ccw exhibit weak narrow emissions superposed on broad components. An unresolved H alpha line is also detected, suggesting a tentative Type Ibn/IIn classification. As for other SNe Ibn, we argue that LSQ12btw and LSQ13ccw likely result from the explosions of Wolf-Rayet stars that experienced instability phases prior to core collapse. We inspect the host galaxies of SNe Ibn, and we show that all of them but one are hosted in spiral galaxies, likely in environments spanning a wide metallicity range.

Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults: meta-analysis of individual participant data from prospective cohort studies of the CHANCES consortium

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.

DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

Radiative hydrodynamic modelling and observations of the X-class solar flare on 2011 March 9

Aims. We investigated the response of the solar atmosphere to non-thermal electron beam heating using the radiative transfer and hydrodynamics modelling code RADYN. The temporal evolution of the parameters that describe the non-thermal electron energy distribution were derived from hard X-ray observations of a particular flare, and we compared the modelled and observed parameters.

Methods. The evolution of the non-thermal electron beam parameters during the X1.5 solar flare on 2011 March 9 were obtained from analysis of RHESSI X-ray spectra. The RADYN flare model was allowed to evolve for 110 s, after which the electron beam heating was ended, and was then allowed to continue evolving for a further 300 s. The modelled flare parameters were compared to the observed parameters determined from extreme-ultraviolet spectroscopy.

Results. The model produced a hotter and denser flare loop than that observed and also cooled more rapidly, suggesting that additional energy input in the decay phase of the flare is required. In the explosive evaporation phase a region of high-density cool material propagated upward through the corona. This material underwent a rapid increase in temperature as it was unable to radiate away all of the energy deposited across it by the non-thermal electron beam and via thermal conduction. A narrow and high-density (ne ≤ 1015 cm-3) region at the base of the flare transition region was the source of optical line emission in the model atmosphere. The collision-stopping depth of electrons was calculated throughout the evolution of the flare, and it was found that the compression of the lower atmosphere may permit electrons to penetrate farther into a flaring atmosphere compared to a quiet Sun atmosphere.

Optical and near-infrared observations of SN 2011dh - The first 100 days

We present optical and near-infrared (NIR) photometry and spectroscopy of the Type IIb supernova (SN) 2011dh for the first 100 days. We complement our extensive dataset with Swift ultra-violet (UV) and Spitzer mid-infrared (MIR) data to build a UV to MIR bolometric lightcurve using both photometric and spectroscopic data. Hydrodynamical modelling of the SN based on this bolometric lightcurve have been presented in Bersten et al. (2012, ApJ, 757, 31). We find that the absorption minimum for the hydrogen lines is never seen below ~11 000 km s-1 but approaches this value as the lines get weaker. This suggests that the interface between the helium core and hydrogen rich envelope is located near this velocity in agreement with the Bersten et al. (2012) He4R270 ejecta model. Spectral modelling of the hydrogen lines using this ejecta model supports the conclusion and we find a hydrogen mass of 0.01-0.04 M⊙ to be consistent with the observed spectral evolution. We estimate that the photosphere reaches the helium core at 5-7 days whereas the helium lines appear between ~10 and ~15 days, close to the photosphere and then move outward in velocity until ~40 days. This suggests that increasing non-thermal excitation due to decreasing optical depth for the γ-rays is driving the early evolution of these lines. The Spitzer 4.5 μm band shows a significant flux excess, which we attribute to CO fundamental band emission or a thermal dust echo although further work using late time data is needed. Thedistance and in particular the extinction, where we use spectral modelling to put further constraints, is discussed in some detail as well as the sensitivity of the hydrodynamical modelling to errors in these quantities. We also provide and discuss pre- and post-explosion observations of the SN site which shows a reduction by ~75 percent in flux at the position of the yellow supergiant coincident with SN 2011dh. The B, V and r band decline rates of 0.0073, 0.0090 and 0.0053 mag day-1 respectively are consistent with the remaining flux being emitted by the SN. Hence we find that the star was indeed the progenitor of SN 2011dh as previously suggested by Maund et al. (2011, ApJ, 739, L37) and which is also consistent with the results from the hydrodynamical modelling. Figures 2, 3, Tables 3-10, and Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgThe photometric tables are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/562/A17

Massive stars exploding in a He-rich circumstellar medium - V. Observations of the slow-evolving SN Ibn OGLE-2012-SN-006

We present optical observations of the peculiar Type Ibn supernova (SN Ibn) OGLE-2012-SN-006, discovered and monitored by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment-IV survey, and spectroscopically followed by Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects (PESSTO) at late phases. Stringent pre-discovery limits constrain the explosion epoch with fair precision to JD = 245 6203.8 +/- 4.0. The rise time to the I-band light-curve maximum is about two weeks. The object reaches the peak absolute magnitude M-I = -19.65 +/- 0.19 on JD = 245 6218.1 +/- 1.8. After maximum, the light curve declines for about 25 d with a rate of 4 mag (100 d)(-1). The symmetric I-band peak resembles that of canonical Type Ib/c supernovae (SNe), whereas SNe Ibn usually exhibit asymmetric and narrower early-time light curves. Since 25 d past maximum, the light curve flattens with a decline rate slower than that of the Co-56-Fe-56 decay, although at very late phases it steepens to approach that rate. However, other observables suggest that the match with the Co-56 decay rate is a mere coincidence, and the radioactive decay is not the main mechanism powering the light curve of OGLE-2012-SN-006. An early-time spectrum is dominated by a blue continuum, with only a marginal evidence for the presence of He I lines marking this SN type. This spectrum shows broad absorptions bluewards than 5000 angstrom, likely O II lines, which are similar to spectral features observed in superluminous SNe at early epochs. The object has been spectroscopically monitored by PESSTO from 90 to 180 d after peak, and these spectra show the typical features observed in a number of SN 2006jc-like events, including a blue spectral energy distribution and prominent and narrow (v(FWHM) approximate to 1900 km s(-1)) He I emission lines. This suggests that the ejecta are interacting with He-rich circumstellar material. The detection of broad (10(4) km s(-1)) O I and Ca II features likely produced in the SN ejecta (including the [OI] lambda lambda 6300,6364 doublet in the latest spectra) lends support to the interpretation of OGLE-2012-SN-006 as a core-collapse event.

Handling Sequential Observations in Intelligent Surveillance

Demand for intelligent surveillance in public transport systems is growing due to the increased threats of terrorist attack, vandalism and litigation. The aim of intelligent surveillance is in-time reaction to information received from various monitoring devices, especially CCTV systems. However, video analytic algorithms can only provide static assertions, whilst in reality, many related events happen in sequence and hence should be modeled sequentially. Moreover, analytic algorithms are error-prone, hence how to correct the sequential analytic results based on new evidence (external information or later sensing discovery) becomes an interesting issue. In this paper, we introduce a high-level sequential observation modeling framework which can support revision and update on new evidence. This framework adapts the situation calculus to deal with uncertainty from analytic results. The output of the framework can serve as a foundation for event composition. We demonstrate the significance and usefulness of our framework with a case study of a bus surveillance project.

Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-analyses of Randomised Controlled Trials: Guidance on Their Use

Jayne Tierney and colleagues offer guidance on how to spot a well-designed and well-conducted individual participant data meta-analysis.

Summary Points 

• Systematic reviews are most commonly based on aggregate data extracted from publications or obtained from trial investigators. 

• Systematic reviews involving the central collection and analysis of individual participant data (IPD) usually are larger-scale, international, collaborative projects that can bring about substantial improvements to the quantity and quality of data, give greater scope in the analyses, and provide more detailed and robust results. 

• The process of collecting, checking, and analysing IPD is more complex than for aggregate data, and not all IPD meta-analyses are done to the same standard, making it difficult for researchers, clinicians, patients, policy makers, funders, and publishers to judge their quality. 

• Following our step-by-step guide will help reviewers and users of IPD meta-analyses to understand them better and recognise those that are well designed and conducted and so help ensure that policy, practice, and research are informed by robust evidence about the effects of interventions.

How individual participant data meta-analyses have influenced trial design, conduct, and analysis

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate how individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses have impacted directly on the design and conduct of trials and highlight other advantages IPD might offer.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Potential examples of the impact of IPD meta-analyses on trials were identified at an international workshop, attended by individuals with experience in the conduct of IPD meta-analyses and knowledge of trials in their respective clinical areas. Experts in the field who did not attend were asked to provide any further examples. We then examined relevant trial protocols, publications, and Web sites to verify the impacts of the IPD meta-analyses. A subgroup of workshop attendees sought further examples and identified other aspects of trial design and conduct that may inform IPD meta-analyses.

RESULTS: We identified 52 examples of IPD meta-analyses thought to have had a direct impact on the design or conduct of trials. After screening relevant trial protocols and publications, we identified 28 instances where IPD meta-analyses had clearly impacted on trials. They have influenced the selection of comparators and participants, sample size calculations, analysis and interpretation of subsequent trials, and the conduct and analysis of ongoing trials, sometimes in ways that would not possible with systematic reviews of aggregate data. We identified additional potential ways that IPD meta-analyses could be used to influence trials.

CONCLUSIONS: IPD meta-analysis could be better used to inform the design, conduct, analysis, and interpretation of trials.

UK publicly funded Clinical Trials Units supported a controlled access approach to share individual participant data but highlighted concerns

OBJECTIVES: Evaluate current data sharing activities of UK publicly funded Clinical Trial Units (CTUs) and identify good practices and barriers.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Web-based survey of Directors of 45 UK Clinical Research Collaboration (UKCRC)-registered CTUs.

RESULTS: Twenty-three (51%) CTUs responded: Five (22%) of these had an established data sharing policy and eight (35%) specifically requested consent to use patient data beyond the scope of the original trial. Fifteen (65%) CTUs had received requests for data, and seven (30%) had made external requests for data in the previous 12 months. CTUs supported the need for increased data sharing activities although concerns were raised about patient identification, misuse of data, and financial burden. Custodianship of clinical trial data and requirements for a CTU to align its policy to their parent institutes were also raised. No CTUs supported the use of an open access model for data sharing.

CONCLUSION: There is support within the publicly funded UKCRC-registered CTUs for data sharing, but many perceived barriers remain. CTUs are currently using a variety of approaches and procedures for sharing data. This survey has informed further work, including development of guidance for publicly funded CTUs, to promote good practice and facilitate data sharing.

The Type IIb SN 2011dh: Two years of observations and modelling of the lightcurves

We present optical and near-infrared (NIR) photometry and spectroscopy as well as modelling of the lightcurves of the Type IIb supernova (SN) 2011dh. Our extensive dataset, for which we present the observations obtained after day 100, spans two years, and complemented with Spitzer mid-infrared (MIR) data, we use it to build an optical-to-MIR bolometric lightcurve between days 3 and 732. To model the bolometric lightcurve before day 400 we use a grid of hydrodynamical SN models, which allows us to determine the errors in the derived quantities, and a bolometric correction determined with steady-state non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) modelling. Using this method we find a helium core mass of 3.1^+0.7<inf>-0.4</inf> M<inf>⊙</inf> for SN 2011dh, consistent within error bars with previous results obtained using the bolometric lightcurve before day 80. We compute bolometric and broad-band lightcurves between days 100 and 500 from spectral steady-state NLTE models, presented and discussed in a companion paper. The preferred 12 M<inf>⊙</inf> (initial mass) model, previously found to agree well with the observed spectra, shows a good overall agreement with the observed lightcurves, although some discrepancies exist. Time-dependent NLTE modelling shows that after day ∼600 a steady-state assumption is no longer valid. The radioactive energy deposition in this phase is likely dominated by the positrons emitted in the decay of ⁵⁶Co, but seems insufficient to reproduce the lightcurves, and what energy source is dominating the emitted flux is unclear. We find an excess in the K and the MIR bands developing between days 100 and 250, during which an increase in the optical decline rate is also observed. A local origin of the excess is suggested by the depth of the He I 20 581 Å absorption. Steady-state NLTE models with a modest dust opacity in the core (τ = 0.44), turned on during this period, reproduce the observed behaviour, but an additional excess in the Spitzer 4.5 μm band remains. Carbon-monoxide (CO) first-overtone band emission is detected at day 206, and possibly at day 89, and assuming the additional excess to bedominated by CO fundamental band emission, we find fundamental to first-overtone band ratios considerably higher than observed in SN 1987A. The profiles of the [O i] 6300 Å and Mg i] 4571 Å lines show a remarkable similarity, suggesting that these lines originate from a common nuclear burning zone (O/Ne/Mg), and using small scale fluctuations in the line profiles we estimate a filling factor of ≲ 0.07 for the emitting material. This paper concludes our extensive observational and modelling work on SN 2011dh. The results from hydrodynamical modelling, steady-state NLTE modelling, and stellar evolutionary progenitor analysis are all consistent, and suggest an initial mass of ∼12 M<inf>⊙</inf> for the progenitor.

EARLY RADIO AND X-RAY OBSERVATIONS OF THE YOUNGEST NEARBY TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA PTF 11kly (SN 2011fe)

On 2011 August 24 (UT) the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) discovered PTF11kly (SN 2011fe), the youngest and most nearby Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) in decades. We followed this event up in the radio (centimeter and millimeter bands) and X-ray bands, starting about a day after the estimated explosion time. We present our analysis of the radio and X-ray observations, yielding the tightest constraints yet placed on the pre-explosion mass-loss rate from the progenitor system of this supernova. We find a robust limit of from sensitive X-ray non-detections, as well as a similar limit from radio data, which depends, however, on assumptions about microphysical parameters. We discuss our results in the context of single-degenerate models for SNe Ia and find that our observations modestly disfavor symbiotic progenitor models involving a red giant donor, but cannot constrain systems accreting from main-sequence or sub-giant stars, including the popular supersoft channel. In view of the proximity of PTF11kly and the sensitivity of our prompt observations, we would have to wait for a long time (a decade or longer) in order to more meaningfully probe the circumstellar matter of SNe Ia.

Transit Observations of the Hot Jupiter HD 189733b at X-Ray Wavelengths

We present new X-ray observations obtained with Chandra ACIS-S of the HD 189733 system, consisting of a K-type star orbited by a transiting Hot Jupiter and an M-type stellar companion. We report a detection of the planetary transit in soft X-rays with a significantly deeper transit depth than observed in the optical. The X-ray data favor a transit depth of 6%-8%, versus a broadband optical transit depth of 2.41%. While we are able to exclude several possible stellar origins for this deep transit, additional observations will be necessary to fully exclude the possibility that coronal inhomogeneities influence the result. From the available data, we interpret the deep X-ray transit to be caused by a thin outer planetary atmosphere which is transparent at optical wavelengths, but dense enough to be opaque to X-rays. The X-ray radius appears to be larger than the radius observed at far-UV wavelengths, most likely due to high temperatures in the outer atmosphere at which hydrogen is mostly ionized. We furthermore detect the stellar companion HD 189733B in X-rays for the first time with an X-ray luminosity of log LX = 26.67 erg s-1. We show that the magnetic activity level of the companion is at odds with the activity level observed for the planet-hosting primary. The discrepancy may be caused by tidal interaction between the Hot Jupiter and its host star.

Multi-wavelength observations of Proxima Centauri

Aims: We report simultaneous observations of the nearby flare star Proxima Centauri with VLT/UVES and XMM-Newton over three nights in March 2009. Our optical and X-ray observations cover the star's quiescent state, as well as its flaring activity and allow us to probe the stellar atmospheric conditions from the photosphere into the chromosphere, and then the corona during its different activity stages. Methods: Using the X-ray data, we investigate variations in coronal densities and abundances and infer loop properties for an intermediate-sized flare. The optical data are used to investigate the magnetic field and its possible variability, to construct an emission line list for the chromosphere, and use certain emission lines to construct physical models of Proxima Centauri's chromosphere. Results: We report the discovery of a weak optical forbidden Fe xiii line at 3388 Å during the more active states of Proxima Centauri. For the intermediate flare, we find two secondary flare events that may originate in neighbouring loops, and discuss the line asymmetries observed during this flare in H i, He i, and Ca ii lines. The high time-resolution in the Hα line highlights strong temporal variations in the observed line asymmetries, which re-appear during a secondary flare event. We also present theoretical modelling with the stellar atmosphere code PHOENIX to construct flaring chromospheric models. Based on observations collected at the European Southern Observatory, Paranal, Chile, 082.D-0953A and on observations obtained with XMM-Newton, an ESA science mission with instruments and contributions directly funded by ESA Member states and NASA.Full Table 6 is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/534/A133

The dust environment of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko from Rosetta OSIRIS and VLT observations in the 4.5 to 2.9 au heliocentric distance range inbound

Context. The ESA Rosetta spacecraft, currently orbiting around comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, has already provided in situ measurements of the dust grain properties from several instruments,particularly OSIRIS and GIADA. We propose adding value to those measurements by combining them with ground-based observations of the dust tail to monitor the overall, time-dependent dust-production rate and size distribution.
Aims. To constrain the dust grain properties, we take Rosetta OSIRIS and GIADA results into account, and combine OSIRIS data during the approach phase (from late April to early June 2014) with a large data set of ground-based images that were acquired with the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT) from February to November 2014.
Methods. A Monte Carlo dust tail code, which has already been used to characterise the dust environments of several comets and active asteroids, has been applied to retrieve the dust parameters. Key properties of the grains (density, velocity, and size distribution) were obtained from Rosetta observations: these parameters were used as input of the code to considerably reduce the number of free parameters. In this way, the overall dust mass-loss rate and its dependence on the heliocentric distance could be obtained accurately.
Results. The dust parameters derived from the inner coma measurements by OSIRIS and GIADA and from distant imaging using VLT data are consistent, except for the power index of the size-distribution function, which is α = −3, instead of α = −2, for grains smaller than 1 mm. This is possibly linked to the presence of fluffy aggregates in the coma. The onset of cometary activity occurs at approximately 4.3 AU, with a dust production rate of 0.5 kg/s, increasing up to 15 kg/s at 2.9 AU. This implies a dust-to-gas mass ratio varying between 3.8 and 6.5 for the best-fit model when combined with water-production rates from the MIRO experiment.