Topological comparison of methods for predicting transcriptional cooperativity in yeast

Background: The cooperative interaction between transcription factors has a decisive role in the control of the fate of the eukaryotic cell. Computational approaches for characterizing cooperative transcription factors in yeast, however, are based on different rationales and provide a low overlap between their results. Because the wealth of information contained in protein interaction networks and regulatory networks has proven highly effective in elucidating functional relationships between proteins, we compared different sets of cooperative transcription factor pairs (predicted by four different computational methods) within the frame of those networks. Results: Our results show that the overlap between the sets of cooperative transcription factors predicted by the different methods is low yet significant. Cooperative transcription factors predicted by all methods are closer and more clustered in the protein interaction network than expected by chance. On the other hand, members of a cooperative transcription factor pair neither seemed to regulate each other nor shared similar regulatory inputs, although they do regulate similar groups of target genes. Conclusion: Despite the different definitions of transcriptional cooperativity and the different computational approaches used to characterize cooperativity between transcription factors, the analysis of their roles in the framework of the protein interaction network and the regulatory network indicates a common denominator for the predictions under study. The knowledge of the shared topological properties of cooperative transcription factor pairs in both networks can be useful not only for designing better prediction methods but also for better understanding the complexities of transcriptional control in eukaryotes.

Predicting cancer involvement of genes from heterogeneous data

Background: Systematic approaches for identifying proteins involved in different types of cancer are needed. Experimental techniques such as microarrays are being used to characterize cancer, but validating their results can be a laborious task. Computational approaches are used to prioritize between genes putatively involved in cancer, usually based on further analyzing experimental data. Results: We implemented a systematic method using the PIANA software that predicts cancer involvement of genes by integrating heterogeneous datasets. Specifically, we produced lists of genes likely to be involved in cancer by relying on: (i) protein-protein interactions; (ii) differential expression data; and (iii) structural and functional properties of cancer genes. The integrative approach that combines multiple sources of data obtained positive predictive values ranging from 23% (on a list of 811 genes) to 73% (on a list of 22 genes), outperforming the use of any of the data sources alone. We analyze a list of 20 cancer gene predictions, finding that most of them have been recently linked to cancer in literature. Conclusion: Our approach to identifying and prioritizing candidate cancer genes can be used to produce lists of genes likely to be involved in cancer. Our results suggest that differential expression studies yielding high numbers of candidate cancer genes can be filtered using protein interaction networks.

Prediction of enzyme function by combining sequence similarity and protein interactions

Background: A number of studies have used protein interaction data alone for protein function prediction. Here, we introduce a computational approach for annotation of enzymes, based on the observation that similar protein sequences are more likely to perform the same function if they share similar interacting partners. Results: The method has been tested against the PSI-BLAST program using a set of 3,890 protein sequences from which interaction data was available. For protein sequences that align with at least 40% sequence identity to a known enzyme, the specificity of our method in predicting the first three EC digits increased from 80% to 90% at 80% coverage when compared to PSI-BLAST. Conclusion: Our method can also be used in proteins for which homologous sequences with known interacting partners can be detected. Thus, our method could increase 10% the specificity of genome-wide enzyme predictions based on sequence matching by PSI-BLAST alone.

The role of computational fluid dynamics in the management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: a clinicians' view

Objective: The importance of hemodynamics in the etiopathogenesis of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) is widely accepted.Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is being used increasingly for hemodynamic predictions. However, alogn with thecontinuing development and validation of these tools, it is imperative to collect the opinion of the clinicians. Methods: A workshopon CFD was conducted during the European Society of Minimally Invasive Neurological Therapy (ESMINT) Teaching Course,Lisbon, Portugal. 36 delegates, mostly clinicians, performed supervised CFD analysis for an IA, using the @neuFuse softwaredeveloped within the European project @neurIST. Feedback on the workshop was collected and analyzed. The performancewas assessed on a scale of 1 to 4 and, compared with experts’ performance. Results: Current dilemmas in the management ofunruptured IAs remained the most important motivating factor to attend the workshop and majority of participants showedinterest in participating in a multicentric trial. The participants achieved an average score of 2.52 (range 0–4) which was 63% (range 0–100%) of an expert user. Conclusions: Although participants showed a manifest interest in CFD, there was a clear lack ofawareness concerning the role of hemodynamics in the etiopathogenesis of IAs and the use of CFD in this context. More effortstherefore are required to enhance understanding of the clinicians in the subject.

Calibration and Validation of SWAT for the Upper Maquoketa River Watershed, June 2005

A validation study has been performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with data collected for the Upper Maquoketa River Watershed (UMRW), which drains over 16,000 ha in northeast Iowa. This validation assessment builds on a previous study with nested modeling for the UMRW that required both the Agricultural Policy EXtender (APEX) model and SWAT. In the nested modeling approach, edge-offield flows and pollutant load estimates were generated for manure application fields with APEX and were then subsequently routed to the watershed outlet in SWAT, along with flows and pollutant loadings estimated for the rest of the watershed routed to the watershed outlet. In the current study, the entire UMRW cropland area was simulated in SWAT, which required translating the APEX subareas into SWAT hydrologic response units (HRUs). Calibration and validation of the SWAT output was performed by comparing predicted flow and NO3-N loadings with corresponding in-stream measurements at the watershed outlet from 1999 to 2001. Annual stream flows measured at the watershed outlet were greatly under-predicted when precipitation data collected within the watershed during the 1999-2001 period were used to drive SWAT. Selection of alternative climate data resulted in greatly improved average annual stream predictions, and also relatively strong r2 values of 0.73 and 0.72 for the predicted average monthly flows and NO3-N loads, respectively. The impact of alternative precipitation data shows that as average annual precipitation increases 19%, the relative change in average annual streamflow is about 55%. In summary, the results of this study show that SWAT can replicate measured trends for this watershed and that climate inputs are very important for validating SWAT and other water quality models.

Introduced ants in Galápagos (Floreana Island) : importance of competition, coexistence and agressive behaviors

Abstract Invasive species represent with fragmentation of habitat the most serious threats to biodiversity in the world. Galápagos Archipelago, as most oceanic islands, suffers a high rate of introduced animals and plants that affect equilibrium and biodiversity of this unique biota. Ants rank among the most devastating invaders. Their social organization confer them a high ability to adapt and to spread in new environments forming rapidly populous communities. We studied the ant community of Floreana Island composed mainly of introduced species (at least 1 S). Introduction events occurred successively during last century. The last record is Monomorium destructor arrived in the eighties. Our aim is to investigate the modalities of interaction and coexistence of these introduced species. We highlighted the competition hierarchy of the coexisting species using attractive food baits. Two species behave as competitively dominant by monopolizing an important part of resources. They are M. destructor restricted to a small area and the fire ant Solenopsis geminata widely distributed on the island. Then we evaluated the relative importance of abiotic factors and interspecific competition in structuring the community. Ecological data were collected and presence and abundance of species were estimated using different methods in a wide range of habitats. Several species showed preferences either for arid or for humid areas. The little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata, awell-known devastating species when introduced, was exclusively found in moist habitat in and around the agricultural area situated in the upper and central part of thé island. It coexists with other species in several parts but in a restricted perimeter it excludes all other ants and worker's density on the ground is nearly 70 times higher than ant's density in similar habitats occupied by several species. But most opportunist tramp species establish everywhere without particular ecological requirement. Analyses of species co-occurrences at various levels didn't reveal any marked effect of competition in structuring ant's assemblages. We supposed that the lack ofcompetition-derived structure has to be attributed to the dynamic of the system. Indeed, across the successive census of 1996, 2003, 2004 and 2005, species distributions and abundances appeared to be highly variables. In particular harsh conditions occurring in dry season in certain parts seem to be limiting to S. geminatai. We suggest that huge variations in the local distribution of the dominant S. geminata disrupt the community organization. Finally we conducted artificial ant confrontations to evaluate to what extend an aggressive behavior at the worker level maybe linked to the ecological success of a species on the island. S. geminata was rather indifferent when confronted to a submissive species on food sources, suggesting that its competitive dominance is largely due to a numerical superiority. On the other hand M. destructor exhibits a strong agonistic behavior in similar confrontations. As soon as the presence of a competitor is detected, most workers were observed to abandon foraging and to take part in physical aggressions. Since it is still restricted nearby its introduction spot two decades after its arrival, we suggest that the energetic cost of such an aggressive behavior prevent it to spread on that island already highly colonized. Dominant invasive species such as the fire ants S. geminata and W. auropunctata have negative impacts on Galápagos fauna, disturbing the hatching of land tortoises and birds. But very little is known about the impact of other exotic ants. Indeed, impact on arthropods and generally on ground-dwelling organisms is very diffcult to evaluate. As a consequence of the dynamic character of Floreana I. ant community it is difficult to build models or to málce predictions on evolution of introduced ant fauna. But Camponotus macilentus, an abundant endemic species seems today to be little affected by introduced ant species thanks to its strong interference competition ability and its preference for arid and harsh environments. Résumé Les espèces envahissantes représentent, avec la fragmentation du paysage, la plus grande menace pour la biodiversité. L'archipel des Galápagos, comme la plupart des îles du Pacifique, compte un grand nombre d'espèces introduites qui menacent la biodiversité de ce milieu unique.. Les fourmis sont parmi les envahisseurs les plus dévastateurs. Leur organisation sociale leur permet de s'adapter et de se propager pour devenir rapidement abondantes. Nous avons étudié la communauté de fourmis sur l'île de Floreana principalement composée d'espèces introduites (au moins 15). Les introductions se sont succédées au cours du siècle précédent. La dernière espèce recensée est Monomorium destructor introduite dans les années 80. Notre objectif est de mettre à jour les modalités des interactions et de la coexistence de ces espèces introduites. Nous avons mis en évidence la hiérarchie de compétition des différentes espèces à l'aide d'appâts de nourriture. Deux espèces se comportent de façon dominante en monopolisant une part importante des ressources. Ce sont M. destructor, restreintes à un petit périmètre, et la fourmi de feu Solenopsis geminata, largement distribuée sur l'île. Nous avons évalué l'importance relative des facteurs abiotiques et de la compétition interspécifique dans la structuration des peuplements. Des données écologiques ont été collectées et la présence et l'abondance des espèces ont été estimées à l'aide de trois méthodes au sein d'une grande diversité d'habitats. Plusieurs espèces .montrent des préférences soit pour les milieux humides, soit pour les milieux arides. La petite fourmi de feu Wasmannia auropunctata, une espèce connue pour être dévastatrice dans ses sites d'introduction, est présente exclusivement dans les habitats humides dans et à proximité de la zone agricole située dans la partie centrale de l'île. Elle coexiste en plusieurs points avec d'autres espèces mais au sein d'un périmètre restreint elle exclut toute autre fourmi et atteint des densités record au sol presque 70 fois supérieures aux densités de fourmis observées sur les sites voisins occupés par plusieurs espèces. Mais la plupart des espèces vagabondes opportunistes s'établissent partout sans exigences écologiques particulières. Des analyses de cooccurrence d'espèces à plusieurs niveaux n'ont pas révélé de rôle marqué de la compétition dans la structuration des communautés. Nous supposons que l'absence d'une telle structure doit être attribuée à la dynamique du système. En effet, au cours des différents recensements de 1996-1997, 2003, 2004 et 2005, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces était très variable. En particulier, les conditions rudes qui règnent dans la zone aride durant la saison sèche semblent affecter particulièrement S. geminata. Nous suggérons que de fortes variations dans la distribution de l'espèce dominante perturbent l'orgaiùsation des communautés. Finalement nous avons effectué des confrontations artificielles pour évaluer dans quelle mesure un comportement agressif au niveau de l'ouvrière peut être lié au succès écologique d'une espèce sur l'île. S. geminata montre très peu de réaction face à une espèce subordonnée sur une même source de nourriture, ce qui laisse supposer que sa dominance est largement due à sa supériorité numérique. Par contre, dans des conditions similaires, M. destructor est fortement agressive. En présence d'un compétiteur, la plupart des ouvrières renoncent très vite à leur activité de fourragement pour agresser les individus de l'autre espèce. Puisque deux décennies après son introduction elle est toujours confinée à son point d'arrivée, nous supposons que le coût en énergie et en ouvrières de ce comportement très agressif est un obstacle à son expansion sur cette île déjà fortement colonisée. Les espèces envahissantes dominantes comme les fourmis de feu S. geminata et W. auropunctata sont connues pour leur impact négatif sur la faune des Galápagos, entre autre sur les jeunes des tortues terrestres et des oiseaux. Mais nous savons très peu de choses sur l'impact des autres espèces de fourmis introduites. En effet, l'impact sur les arthropodes, et plus généralement sur la faune du sol, est très difficile à évaluer. En raison du caractère dynamique de la communauté de fourmi de Floreana, il est difficile de construire des modèles et de faire des prédictions sur l'évolution des peuplements de fourmis introduites. Mais Camponotus macilentus, une espèce endémique abondante, semble aujourd'hui peu affectée par les espèces introduites grâce à ses capacités de compétition par interférence et sa préférence pour les milieux arides. Resumen Las, especies invasoras representan, junto con la fragmentación del paisaje, la mayor amenaza para la biodiversidad. El archipiélago de Galápagos, como la mayoría de las islas del Pacífico, cuenta con un gran número de especies introducidas que amenazan la biodiversidad de este lugar único. Las hormigas son uno de los invasores más devastadores. Su organización social les permite adaptarse y propagarse para ser rápidamente abundante. Estudiamos la comunidad de hormigas de la isla Floreana principalmente compuesta de especies introducidas (al menos 15). Las introducciones se sucedieron durante el siglo anterior. La última especie contabilizada es Monomorium destructor introducida en los años 80. Nuestro objetivo es poner al día las modalidades de las interacciones y de la coexistencia de estas especies introducidas. Pusimos de relieve la jerarquía de competencia de las distintas especies con ayuda de cebos de comida. Dos especies se implican de manera dominante monopolizando una parte importante de los recursos. Son M. destructor, limitado a un pequeño perímetro, y la hormiga de fuego Solenopsis geminata; ampliamente distribuida por la isla. Evaluamos la importancia relativa de los factores abióticos y de la competencia interespecífica en la estructuración de la communidad. Se recogieron algunos datos ecológicos y se consideraron la presencia y la abundancia de las especies con ayuda de tres métodos en una gran diversidad de hábitats. Varias especies muestran preferencias o por los medios húmedos, o por los medios áridos. La pequeña hormiga de fuego Wasmannia auropunctata, una especie conocida por ser devastadora en sus lugares de introducción, está presente exclusivamente en los hábitats húmedos y cerca de la zona agrícola situada en la parte central de la isla. Coexiste en varios puntos con otras especies pero en un perímetro limitado excluye a cualquier otra hormiga y alcanza densidades en el suelo casi 70 veces superiores a las densidades de hormigas observadas en los lugares vecinos ocupados por varias especies. Pero la mayoría de las especies vagabundas oportunistas se establecen por todas partes sin exigencias ecológicas particulares. Análisis de cooccurrencía de las especies a varios niveles no revelaron una grande importancía de la competencia en la estructuración de las comunidades. Suponemos que la ausencia de tal estructura Bebé ser por la dinámica del sistema. Efectivamente, durante los distintos censos de 1996-1997, 2003,.2004 y 2005, la distribución ? la abundancia de las especies eran muy variables. En particular, las condiciones drásticas que reinan en la zona árida durante la temporada seca parecen afectar especialmente a S. geminata. Sugerimos que fuertes variaciones en la distribución de la especie dominante perturben la organización de las comunidades. Finalmente efectuamos confrontaciones artificiales para evaluar hastá que punto un comportamiento agresivo a nivel de la obrera puede explicar el éxito ecológico de una especie en la isla. S. geminata muestra muy poca reacción ante una especie subordinada mientras comparten la misma comida, lo que deja suponer que su dominancia se debe a su superioridad numérica. Por el contrario, en condiciones similares, M. destructor es muy agresivo. En presencia de otra especie, la mayóría de las obreras renuncian muy rápidamente a alimentarse para atacar a los individuos de la otra especie. Puesto que dos décadas después de su introducción todavía se confina en su punto de llegada, suponemos que el coste en energía y en obreras de este comportamiento muy agresivo es un obstáculo a su extensión en esta isla ya muy colonizada. Las especiés invasoras dominantes como las hormigas de fuego S. geminata y W. auropunctata son conocidas por su impacto negativo en la fauna de Galápagos, entre otras cosas sobre los juveniles de las tortugas terrestres y pájaros. Pero sabemos muy poco sobre el impacto de las otras especies de hormigas introducidas. Efectivamente es muy difïcil de evaluar el impacto en los artrópodos, y más generalmente en la fauna del suelo. Debido al carácter dinámico de la comunidad de hormiga de Floreana, es diEcil construir modelos y hacer predicciones sobre la evolución de las poblaciones de hormigas introducidas. Pero Camponotus macilentus, una especie endémica abundante, parece poco afectadá hoy por las especies introducidas gracias a sus capacidades de competencia por interferencia y su preferencia por los medios áridos.

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Climate change data and predictions for the Himalayas are very sparse and uncertain, characterized by a ?Himalayan data gap? and difficulties in predicting changes due to topographic complexity. A few reliable studies and climate change models for Nepal predict considerable changes: shorter monsoon seasons, more intensive rainfall patterns, higher temperatures, and drought. These predictions are confirmed by farmers who claim that temperatures have been increasing for the past decade and wonder why the rains have ?gone mad.? The number of hazard events, notably droughts, floods, and landslides are increasing and now account for approximately 100 deaths in Nepal annually. Other effects are drinking water shortages and shifting agricultural patterns, with many communities struggling to meet basic food security before climatic conditions started changing. The aim of this paper is to examine existing gaps between current climate models and the realities of local development planning through a case study on flood risk and drinking water management for the Municipality of Dharan in Eastern Nepal. This example highlights current challenges facing local-level governments, namely, flood and landslide mitigation, providing basic amenities ? especially an urgent lack of drinking water during the dry season ? poor local planning capacities, and limited resources. In this context, the challenge for Nepal will be to simultaneously address increasing risks caused by hazard events alongside the omnipresent food security and drinking water issues in both urban and rural areas. Local planning is needed that integrates rural development and disaster risk reduction (DRR) with knowledge about climate change considerations. The paper concludes with a critical analysis of climate change modeling and the gap between scientific data and low-tech and low capacities of local planners to access or implement adequate adaptation measures. Recommendations include the need to bridge gaps between scientific models, the local political reality and local information needs.

Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model, January 2000

A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

New validated prognostic models and prognostic calculators in patients with low-grade gliomas diagnosed by central pathology review: a pooled analysis of EORTC/RTOG/NCCTG phase III clinical trials.

Background In a previous study, the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) reported a scoring system to predict survival of patients with low-grade gliomas (LGGs). A major issue in the diagnosis of brain tumors is the lack of agreement among pathologists. New models in patients with LGGs diagnosed by central pathology review are needed. Methods Data from 339 EORTC patients with LGGs diagnosed by central pathology review were used to develop new prognostic models for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Data from 450 patients with centrally diagnosed LGGs recruited into 2 large studies conducted by North American cooperative groups were used to validate the models. Results Both PFS and OS were negatively influenced by the presence of baseline neurological deficits, a shorter time since first symptoms (<30 wk), an astrocytic tumor type, and tumors larger than 5 cm in diameter. Early irradiation improved PFS but not OS. Three risk groups have been identified (low, intermediate, and high) and validated. Conclusions We have developed new prognostic models in a more homogeneous LGG population diagnosed by central pathology review. This population better fits with modern practice, where patients are enrolled in clinical trials based on central or panel pathology review. We could validate the models in a large, external, and independent dataset. The models can divide LGG patients into 3 risk groups and provide reliable individual survival predictions. Inclusion of other clinical and molecular factors might still improve models' predictions.

The Effect of occupational sex-composition on earnings: job-specialisation, sex-role attitudes and the division of domestic-labour in Spain

Important theoretical controversies remain unresolved in the literatire on occupational sex-segregation and the gender wage-gap. A useful way of summarising these controversies is viewing them as a debate between - cultural -socialisation. The paper discusses these theories in detail and carries out a preliminary test of the relative explanatory performance of some of their most consequential predictions. This is done by drawing on the Spanish sample of the second wave of the European Social Survey, ESS. The empirical analysis of ESS data illustrates the notable analytical pay-offs that can stem from using rich individual-level indicators, but also exemplifies the statistical llimitations generated by small sample size and high rates of non-response. Empirical results should, therefore, be taken as preliminary. They seem to suggest that the effect of occupational sex-segregation on wages could be explicable by workers' sex-role attitutes, their relative input in domestic production and the job-specific human capital requirements of their jobs. Of these three factors, job-specialisation seeems clearly the most important one.

Limits on the validity of infinite length assumptions for modelling shallow landslides

The infinite slope method is widely used as the geotechnical component of geomorphic and landscape evolution models. Its assumption that shallow landslides are infinitely long (in a downslope direction) is usually considered valid for natural landslides on the basis that they are generally long relative to their depth. However, this is rarely justified, because the critical length/depth (L/H) ratio below which edge effects become important is unknown. We establish this critical L/H ratio by benchmarking infinite slope stability predictions against finite element predictions for a set of synthetic two-dimensional slopes, assuming that the difference between the predictions is due to error in the infinite slope method. We test the infinite slope method for six different L/H ratios to find the critical ratio at which its predictions fall within 5% of those from the finite element method. We repeat these tests for 5000 synthetic slopes with a range of failure plane depths, pore water pressures, friction angles, soil cohesions, soil unit weights and slope angles characteristic of natural slopes. We find that: (1) infinite slope stability predictions are consistently too conservative for small L/H ratios; (2) the predictions always converge to within 5% of the finite element benchmarks by a L/H ratio of 25 (i.e. the infinite slope assumption is reasonable for landslides 25 times longer than they are deep); but (3) they can converge at much lower ratios depending on slope properties, particularly for low cohesion soils. The implication for catchment scale stability models is that the infinite length assumption is reasonable if their grid resolution is coarse (e.g. >25?m). However, it may also be valid even at much finer grid resolutions (e.g. 1?m), because spatial organization in the predicted pore water pressure field reduces the probability of short landslides and minimizes the risk that predicted landslides will have L/H ratios less than 25. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The influence of learning on evolution: a mathematical framework.

The Baldwin effect can be observed if phenotypic learning influences the evolutionary fitness of individuals, which can in turn accelerate or decelerate evolutionary change. Evidence for both learning-induced acceleration and deceleration can be found in the literature. Although the results for both outcomes were supported by specific mathematical or simulation models, no general predictions have been achieved so far. Here we propose a general framework to predict whether evolution benefits from learning or not. It is formulated in terms of the gain function, which quantifies the proportional change of fitness due to learning depending on the genotype value. With an inductive proof we show that a positive gain-function derivative implies that learning accelerates evolution, and a negative one implies deceleration under the condition that the population is distributed on a monotonic part of the fitness landscape. We show that the gain-function framework explains the results of several specific simulation models. We also use the gain-function framework to shed some light on the results of a recent biological experiment with fruit flies.

SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.

Capital, Wages, and Growth: Theory and Evidence

Returns to scale to capital and the strength of capital externalities play a key role for the empirical predictions and policy implications of different growth theories. We show that both can be identified with individual wage data and implement our approach at the city-level using US Census data on individuals in 173 cities for 1970, 1980, and 1990. Estimation takes into account fixed effects, endogeneity of capital accumulation, and measurement error. We find no evidence for human or physical capital externalities and decreasing aggregate returns to capital. Returns to scale to physical and human capital are around 80 percent. We also find strong complementarities between human capital and labor and substantial total employment externalities.

Sibling rivalry and vocal negotiation in the barn owl Tyto alba

Chez les animaux, les jeunes dépendant des parents durant leur développement sont en compétition pour obtenir la nourriture, qu'ils quémandent par des cris et postures ostentatoires et se disputent physiquement. Les frères et soeurs n'ont pas la même compétitivité, en particulier s'ils diffèrent en âge, et leur niveau de faim fluctue dans le temps. Comme dans tout type de compétition, chacun doit ajuster son investissement aux rivaux, c'est à dire aux besoins et comportements de ses frères et soeurs. Dans le contexte de la famille, selon la théorie de sélection de parentèle, les jeunes bénéficient de leur survie mutuelle et donc de la propagation de la part de gènes qu'ils ont en commun. L'hypothèse de la « négociation frères-soeurs » prédit que, sous certaines conditions, les jeunes négocient entre eux la nourriture, ce qui réduit les coûts de compétition et permet de favoriser les frères et soeurs les plus affamés. La littérature actuelle se focalise sur les signaux de quémande entre enfants et parents et les interactions compétitives frères-soeurs sont étudiées principalement au sein de paires, alors que les nichées ou portées en comprennent souvent de nombreux. Cette thèse vise à mieux comprendre comment et jusqu'à quel point plusieurs jeunes ajustent mutuellement leurs signaux de besoin. C'est une question importante, étant donné que cela influence la répartition de nourriture entre eux, donc la résolution du conflit qui les oppose et à terme leur valeur évolutive. Le modèle d'étude est la chouette effraie (Tyto alba), chez laquelle jusqu'à neufs poussins émettent des milliers de cris chacun par nuit. Ils négocieraient entre eux la prochaine proie indivisible rapportée au nid avant que les parents ne reviennent : un poussin affamé crie plus qu'un autre moins affamé, ce qui dissuade ce dernier de crier en retour et par la suite de quémander la nourriture aux parents. L'investissement optimal correspondrait donc à écarter son frère en permanence vu que l'arrivée des parents est imprévisible, mais à moindre coût. Dans un premier axe, nous avons exploré au sein de dyades les mécanismes acoustiques permettant aux poussins de doser leur effort vocal durant les heures de compétition où ils sont laissés seuls au nid. Nous avons trouvé que les poussins évitent de crier simultanément, ce qui optimiserait la discrimination du nombre et de la durée de leurs cris, lesquels reflètent de façon honnête leur niveau de faim et donc leur motivation. L'alternance des cris paraît particulièrement adaptée au fait que les poussins se fient à des variations temporelles subtiles dans le rythme et la durée de leurs vocalisations pour prendre la parole. En particulier, allonger ses cris tout en criant moins dissuade efficacement le rival de répondre, ce qui permet de monopoliser la parole dans de longs « monologues ». Ces règles seraient universelles puisqu'elles ne dépendent pas de la séniorité, de la faim, ni de la parenté et les poussins répondent à un playback de façon similaire à un vrai frère. Tous ces résultats apportent la première preuve expérimentale que les juvéniles communiquent de façon honnête sur leurs besoins, ajustent activement le rythme de leurs cris et utilisent des composantes multiples de leurs vocalisations d'une façon qui réduit le coût de la compétition. De plus, il s'agit de la première démonstration que des règles de conversation régissent de longs échanges vocaux chez les animaux de façon comparable aux règles basiques observées chez l'Homme. Dans un second axe, nous avons exploré les stratégies comportementales que les poussins adoptent pour rivaliser avec plusieurs frères et soeurs, par le biais d'expériences de playback. Nous avons trouvé que les poussins mémorisent des asymétries de compétitivité entre deux individus qui dialoguent et répondent plus agressivement au moins compétitif une fois qu'ils sont confrontés à chacun isolément. Dans la même ligne, quand ils entendent un nombre variable d'individus criant à un taux variable, les poussins investissent le plus contre des rivaux moins nombreux et moins motivés. En accord avec les prédictions des modèles théoriques, les poussins de chouette effraie escaladent donc les conflits pour lesquels leur chance de gagner contrebalance le plus l'énergie dépensée. Nous révélons ainsi que 1) les jeunes frères et soeurs 'espionnent' les interactions de leurs rivaux pour évaluer leur compétitivité relative, ce qui est sans doute moins coûteux qu'une confrontation directe avec chacun, et 2) dosent leur investissement vocal en fonction du nombre de rivaux actuellement en compétition et de leur motivation de façon concomitante. Ces résultats montrent que les interactions entre frères et soeurs au nid reposent sur des mécanismes similaires à ceux observés, mais encore de façon anecdotique, chez les adultes non apparentés qui se disputent les territoires et partenaires sexuels. Cette thèse souligne donc combien il est crucial de considérer dorénavant la famille comme un réseau de communication à part entière pour mieux comprendre comment les jeunes résolvent les conflits autour du partage des ressources parentales. Plus généralement, elle révèle l'importance de la dynamique temporelle des vocalisations dans les conflits et la communication des animaux. A la lumière de nos résultats, la chouette effraie apparaît comme un modèle clé pour de futures recherches sur la résolution des conflits et la communication acoustique. - In species with parental care, offspring contest priority access to food by begging through conspicuous postures and vocalisations and by physically jockeying. Siblings differ in their competitiveness, especially in the case of age and size hierarchies, and their hunger level fluctuates in time. As in competition in general, each individual should adjust its investment to opponents that is to say to its siblings' needs and behaviours. In the particular context of family, according to kin selection theory, siblings derive extra fitness benefits from their mutual survival and hence the spreading of the genes they share. The "sibling negotiation" predicts that, under certain conditions, young would negotiate among them priority access to food, which reduces competition costs and enables promoting the most hungry siblings. To date, the literature focuses on signals of need between parents and offspring and competitive interactions (in particular among siblings) are mostly studied within pairwise interactions, yet they commonly involve more numerous rivals. This PhD aims at better understanding how and the extent to which several young siblings compete through signalling. This is important since this influences how food is allocated among them, thus the outcome of sibling rivalry and ultimately their fitness. I use the barn owl (Tyto alba) as a model, in which the one to nine nestlings emit a simple noisy call thousands of times per night. Thereby, they would negotiate among them priority access to the indivisible food next delivered prior to parents' feeding visits. A hungry nestling emits more calls than a less hungry sibling, which deters it to call in return and ultimately beg food at parents. The optimal investment thus corresponds to constantly deterring the rival to compete, given that parents' arrival is unpredictable, but at the lowest costs. In the first axis of my thesis, we explored within dyads the acoustic mechanisms by which owlets dose vocal effort when competing during the hours they are left alone. We found that owlets avoid overlapping each other's calls. This would enhance the discrimination of both call number and duration, which honestly reflect individuals' hunger level and hence motivation to compete. Such antiphony seems best adapted to the fact that siblings actually use subtle temporal variations in the rhythm and duration of their calls to take or give their turn. Owlets alternate monologs, in which lengthening calls efficiently deters the rival to respond while reducing call number. Such rules depend neither on seniority, hunger level nor kinship since nestlings responded similarly to a live sibling and an unrelated playback individual. Taken together, these findings provide the first experimental proof that dependent young honestly communicate about their need, actively adjust the timing of their calls and use multicomponent signals in a way that reduces vocal costs. Moreover, this is the first demonstration of conversational rules underlying animal long-lasting vocal exchanges comparable to the basic turn-taking signals observed in humans. In the second axis, we focused on the behavioural strategies owlets adopt to compete with more than one sibling, using playback experiments. We found that singleton bystanders memorised competitive asymmetries between two playback individuals dialoguing and responded more aggressively to the submissive one once they later faced each of both alone. Moreover, when hearing a varying number of nestlings calling at varying rates, owlets vocally invested the most towards fewer and less motivated rivals. In line with predictions from models on conflict settlement, barn owls thus escalate contests in which their chance of winning best counterbalances the energy spent. These results reveal that young socially eavesdrop on their siblings' interactions to assess their relative competitiveness at likely lower costs than direct confrontation, and dose vocal effort relative to both their number and motivation. This shows that young siblings' interactions imply mechanisms similar to those observed, yet still anecdotally, in unrelated adults that contest mates and territories. This PhD therefore highlights how crucial it is to further consider family as a communication network to better understand how siblings resolve conflicts over the share of parental resources. More generally, it provides important insights into the role of the temporal dynamics of signalling during animal contests and communication. In the light of our findings, the barn owl emerges as a key model for future research on conflict resolution and acoustic communication in animals.