Optimal, minimax, and Bayesian two-stage designs in two-dose phase II clinical trials

Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^

Influence of fertilization on the growth of radicchio "Rosso di Chioggia" cultivated in two different environments

Este trabajo evalúa la influencia de la fertilización en radicchio tipo "Rosso de Chioggia" (precocidad media) sobre algunos índices de crecimiento. Se realizaron ensayos durante dos campañas en Rovigo (Italia) y una en Mendoza (Argentina), aplicándose dosis crecientes de NPK, identificadas como N0P0K0, N1P1K1, N2P2K2, en Mendoza y en Rovigo, además, N3P2K2. Durante el cultivo se calcularon índices de crecimiento como: relative growth rate (RGR), net assimilation rate (NAR), leaf area ratio (LAR), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf weigh ratio (LWR), crop growth ratio (CGR), leaf area index (LAI) and leaf area duration (LAD). En Mendoza, el CGR estuvo fuertemente influenciado por NAR desde el trasplante hasta alcanzar 776 grados días (GDD); desde 1052 a 1653 GDD el CGR fue afectado por el LAI el cual aumentó marcadamente debido a las condiciones ambientales favorables. Entre los 1052 y 1653 GDD el incremento del LAI determinó una reducción en la eficiencia fotosintética. En Rovigo, la tendencia de los índices fue disímil en los dos años, encontrándose respuestas diferentes en LAR y en SLA. En el segundo año, el CGR siempre arrojó valores más altos, mientras que NAR no difirió en ninguno de los años. En la segunda mitad del ciclo, CGR estuvo fuertemente asociado a una menor eficiencia fotosintética, debido a la formación de la cabeza. Valores elevados de LAI indicaron una extensión del ciclo, retrasando la formación de la cabeza. Las plantas alcanzaron la madurez comercial con LWR entre 0,35 - 0,40 g g-1. En ambos ambientes, no se observó claramente el efecto de la fertilización sobre los índices; si bien las dosis más altas mostraron mayor actividad de crecimiento en las etapas tempranas.

Chemical versus structural defense against fish predation in two dominant soft coral species (Xeniidae) in the Red Sea

Soft corals of the family Xeniidae are particularly abundant in Red Sea coral reefs. Their success may be partly due to a strong defense mechanism against fish predation. To test this, we conducted field and aquarium experiments in which we assessed the antifeeding effect of secondary metabolites of 2 common xeniid species, Ovabunda crenata and Heteroxenia ghardaqensis. In the field experiment, the metabolites of both investigated species reduced feeding on experimental food pellets in the natural population of Red Sea reef fishes by 86 and 92% for O. crenata and H. ghardaqensis, respectively. In the aquarium experiment, natural concentration of crude extract reduced feeding on experimental food pellets in the common reef fish Thalassoma lunare (moon wrasse) by 83 and 85%, respectively. Moon wrasse feeding was even reduced at extract concentrations as low as 12.5% of the natural concentration in living soft coral tissues. To assess the potential of a structural anti-feeding defence, sclerites of O. crenata were extracted and mixed into food pellets at natural, doubled and reduced concentration without and in combination with crude extract at 25% of natural concentration, and tested in an aquarium experiment. The sclerites did not show any effect on the feeding behavior of the moon wrasse indicating that sclerites provide structural support rather than antifeeding defense. H. ghardaqensis lacks sclerites. We conclude that the conspicuous abundance of xeniid soft coral species in the Red Sea is likely a consequence of a strong chemical defence, rather than physical defences, against potential predators.

Contents and stable carbon isotope compositions of biomarkers indicative for AOM-communities dominated by different ANME groups in two carbonate samples from Hydrate Hole pockmark

Different types of seep carbonates were recovered from the 'Kouilou pockmarks' on the Congo deep-sea fan in approximately 3100 m water depth. The carbonate aggregates are represented by pyritiferous nodules, crusts and slabs, tubes, and filled molds. The latter are interpreted to represent casts of former burrows of bivalves and holothurians. The nodules consisting of high-Mg-calcite apparently formed deeper within the sediments than the predominantly aragonitic crusts and slabs. Nodule formation was caused by anaerobic oxidation of methane dominantly involving archaea of the phylogenetic ANME-1 group, whereas aragonitic crusts resulted from the activity of archaea of the ANME-2 cluster. Evidence for this correlation is based on the distribution of specific biomarkers in the two types of carbonate aggregates, showing higher hydroxyarchaeol to archaeol ratios in the crusts as opposed to nodules. Formation of crusts closer to the seafloor than nodules is indicated by higher carbonate contents of crusts, probably reflecting higher porosities of the host sediment during carbonate formation. This finding is supported by lower d18O values of crusts, agreeing with precipitation from pore waters similar in composition to seawater. The aragonitic mineralogy of the crusts is also in accord with precipitation from sulfate-rich pore waters similar to seawater. Moreover, the interpretation regarding the relative depth of formation of crusts and nodules agrees with the commonly observed pattern that ANME-1 archaea tend to occur deeper in the sediment than members of the ANME-2 group. Methane represents the predominant carbon source of all carbonates (d13C values as low as -58.9 per mil V-PDB) and the encrusted archaeal biomarkers (d13C values as low as -140 per mil V-PDB). Oxygen isotope values of some nodular carbonates, ranging from + 3.9 to + 5.1per mil V-PDB, are too high for precipitation in equilibrium with seawater, probably reflecting the destabilization of gas hydrates, which are particularly abundant at the Kouilou pockmarks.

Local Human Activity in two communities of Formosa, Argentina

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