An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Guyana

Climate change is considered to be the most pervasive and truly global of all issues affecting humanity. It poses a serious threat to the environment, as well as to economies and societies. Whilst it is clear that the impacts of climate change are varied, scientists have agreed that its effects will not be evenly distributed and that developing countries and small island developing States (SIDS) will be the first and hardest hit. Small island developing States, many of whom have fewer resources to adapt socially, technologically and financially to climate change, are considered to be the most vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. An economic analysis of climate change can provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Caribbean closer to solving the problems associated with climate change, and to attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Climate change is expected to affect the health of populations. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO), in Protecting Health from Climate Change (2008), states that the continuation of current patterns of fossil fuel use, development and population growth will lead to ongoing climate change, with serious effects on the environment and, consequently, on human lives and health. Assessing the economics of potential health impacts of climate variability and change requires an understanding of both the vulnerability of a population and its capacity to respond to new conditions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability as the degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (WHO and others, 2003). The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in collaboration with the Caribbean Community Centre for Climate Change (CCCCC), is pursuing a regional project to ―Review the Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean‖ (RECCC). The purpose of the project is to assess the likely economic impacts of climate change on key sectors of Caribbean economies, through applying robust simulation modelling analyses under various socio-economic scenarios and carbon emission trajectories for the next 40 years. The findings are expected to stimulate local and national governments, regional institutions, the private sector and civil society to craft and implement policies, cost-effective options and efficient choices to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Bahamas

The Bahamas is at great risk and vulnerability given its geographical features as a low-lying, sea encircled country. If projected sea level rise is reached by 2050, between 10-12% of territory will be lost, especially in coastal zones where the main tourism assets are located. Vulnerability could also be manifested if flight carbon emission taxes are established in the main source markets, representing an economic threat to the tourism sector for the islands. The impact of climate change on main tourism demand variables will cause some losses to the country‟s income and government revenues. This would be acting conjointly with some local threats to tourism assets and trends in future global tourism demand. The second and no less important threat is tropical cyclones, which may be associated with raising sea level. Estimations posited the amount of losses in excess of 2400 million US$ for the four decades under examination. It is to be pointed out that there is still a lack of comparatively accurate data collection and analysis on this subject, a point deserving more attention in order to deepen the understanding of, and to extract better lessons from these extreme events. In the same period, total estimated impacts of progressive climate change are between 17 and 19 billions of B$ with estimated discount rates applied. The Bahamas is a Small Island Developing State with low growth on GHG emissions (second in Latin America), as well as a relative short capacity to lower emissions in the future. The country has a relative delay in the application of renewable energy systems, a solution that, provided documented studies on-site, might turn out to be fundamental in the country‟s efforts to establish mitigation related policies. The Bahamas currently has institutions and organizations that deal with climate change-related issues and an important number of measures and courses of action have been set up by the government. Nevertheless, more coordination among them is needed and should include international institutions. This coordination is essential even for the first steps, i.e. to conduct studies with a bottom-up approach in order to draw more accurate programs on adaptation and mitigation. It is fundamental for tourism to keep track of potential losses in tourist attractions (and to act accordingly), related to correspondent losses in biodiversity, water resources and coastal erosion. Also, actions to fight climate change impacts might improve the islands security standards, quality of living and protect cultural and heritage assets. These elements may definitely shape the future of the country‟s competitiveness as a tourism destination. It is possible and necessary to decide about the options with good cost-benefit ratio and reasonable payback periods, notwithstanding that cost-benefit analysis requires more refined and accurate data to provide precise and locally adapted options.

An Assessment Of The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On The Transportation Sector In Montserrat

.--I. Introduction.--II. Literature review regarding climate change impacts on international transportation.--III. Economy of the Caribbean subregion and Monserrat.--IV. The international transportaion system in the Caribbean and in Monserrat.--V. Vulnerabilities of international transport system in Monserrat to climate change.--VI. Modelling.-- VII. Economic impact analysis of climate chage on the international transport.-- VIII. Approaches to mitigation and adaptation in the air and sea transportation sectors.-- IX. Conclusions

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

Report of the roundtable: towards development of a climate change policy for the Caribbean

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, in collaboration with the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Secretariat through the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), convened a meeting of technical experts working in the field of economics and climate change. The main objective of the meeting was to present the results of studies that were conducted under the project, “Understanding the Potential Economic Impact of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean”. These presentations were expected to sensitize the experts to the costs of the impacts of climate change in different development scenarios and also present the costs of adaptative and mitigative strategies to 2100. It was expected that discussions of the presentation would inform the preparation of a subregional climate change policy through an examination of the existing Regional Climate Change Framework for Building Resilience. Discussions were also intended to focus on updating participants on the upcoming negotiations for the new Kyoto Protocol that would take place in Mexico in November 2010. The meeting took the form of presentations by relevant experts followed by discussions. Each discussion segment resulted in recommendations that would inform development of the policy. The meeting was held at the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, on 30 June 2010.

Contribuições da teoria das restrições para gestão da mudança

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceptions of environmental change and use of traditional knowledge to plan riparian forest restoration with relocated communities in Alcantara, Eastern Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of manganese supplementation on the membrane integrity and the mitochondrial potential of the sperm of grazing Nelore bulls

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Synthesis by a chemical method and characterization of CaZrO3 powders: Potential application as humidity sensors

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Le(a-b-) phenotype: potential risk factor for infection by the RH strain of Toxoplasma gondii in pregnancy

The Lewis histo-blood group system is characterized by the expression of the Lea and Le(b) antigens in the gastrointestinal tract, whose synthesis results in interactions between alpha 2-L-fucosyltransferase (FUTII) and alpha 3/4-L-fucosyltransferase (FUTIII) enzymes coded by the FUT2 (19q. 13.3) and FUT3 (19p13.3) genes. FUTII and FUTIII fucosylate the type 1 oligosaccharide precursor (Gal beta 1 -> 3NAcGlc beta 1 -> 3-R) at distinct positions to form H type 1 (Fuc alpha 1. 2Gal beta 1. 3NAcGlc beta 1 -> 3-R) and Le(a) (Gal beta 1 -> 3[Fuc alpha 1 -> 4] NAcGlc beta 1 -> 3-R) antigens, respectively. The fucosylation of H type 1 antigens by FUTIII results in the Leb antigen (Fuc alpha 1. 2Gal beta 1. 3[Fuca1. 4] NAcGlc beta 1. 3-R). Thus, the presence of the FUTII and FUTIII enzymes leads to the expression of the Le(a+b+) phenotype, while the presence of only FUTIII allows the expression of the Le(a+b-) phenotype. The absence of the FUTIII enzyme leads to the expression of the Le(a-b-) phenotype, independent of the presence or absence of FUTII. Point mutations in FUT2 and FUT3 genes change the activity of these enzymes, impair the synthesis of Le(a) and Le(b) antigens, and contribute to the variability of Lewis phenotypes in the gastrointestinal tract. Toxoplasma gondii, an apicomplexan parasite that infects a large proportion of the world's population, utilizes the gastrointestinal tract as an infection route and seems to adhere to glycosylated molecules to invade human cells. These apparently independent events may be related. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that there is an association between the Lewis histo-blood group system and infection by T. gondii. Two hundred and nine serum samples collected from pregnant women were submitted to screening tests to detect anti-T. gondii antibodies, employing the indirect hemagglutination method. ELISA was utilized to identify IgG class anti-T. gondii antibodies specific for the RH strain. A hundred and ninety-five samples with concordant results for both methods were selected to form two groups: seropositive (G1) and seronegative (G2). The G428A mutation of the FUT2 gene, and T202C and C314T of the FUT3 gene, which allow inference of the gastrointestinal tract Lewis phenotypes, were identified using PCR-RFLP and PCR-SSP methods, respectively. Among the 195 samples selected, 116 (59.5%) were seropositive and 79 (40.5%) were seronegative. In G1, 68 (58.6%) were classified as Le(a+b+), 30 (25.9%) as Le(a+b-), and 18 (15.5%) as Le(a-b-), and in G2, 67 (84.8%) were classified as Le(a+b+), 12 (15.2%) as Le(a+b-), and 0 (0%) as Le(a-b-) (P < 0.0001). The Le(a-b-) phenotype is associated with a high risk of RH strain T. gondii infection when compared with the Le(a+b+) [P = 0.0001; OR = 36,460; 95%CI = 2.152-617,680] and Le(a+b-) phenotypes [P = 0.0118; OR = 15,165; 95%CI = 0.8463-271,710]. The Le(a+b-) phenotype showed a higher risk compared to the Le(a+b+) phenotype [P = 0.0206; OR = 2463; 95%CI = 2463-5214]. The results suggest that the Le(a-b-) phenotype is strongly associated with a greater risk of infection by the RH strain of T. gondii compared to the other phenotypes. It is possible that the absence of fucosylation of the type 1 oligosaccharide precursor as well as the variations in the structures of the Le(a) and Le(b) antigens influence susceptibility to infection by this parasite.

From Potential to Implementation: an innovation framework to realize the benefits of soil carbon

This chapter addresses the mismatch between existing knowledge, techniques and management methods for improved soil carbon management and deficits in its implementation. The paper gives a short overview of the evolution of the concept of soil carbon, which illustrates the interactions between scientific, industrial, technical, societal and economic change. It then goes on to show that sufficient techniques are available for the large-scale implementation of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. A subsequent analysis of the bottlenecks that prevent implementation identifies where issues need to be addressed in order to enable robust, integrated and sustainable SOC management strategies.

Weight Training, Aerobic Physical Activities, and Long-Term Waist Circumference Change in Men

ObjectiveFindings on weight training and waist circumference (WC) change are controversial. This study examined prospectively whether weight training, moderate to vigorous aerobic activity (MVAA), and replacement of one activity for another were associated with favorable changes in WC and body weight (BW).MethodsPhysical activity, WC, and BW were reported in 1996 and 2008 in a cohort of 10,500 healthy U.S. men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Multiple linear regression models (partition/substitution) to assess these associations were used.ResultsAfter adjusting for potential confounders, a significant inverse dose-response relationship between weight training and WC change (P-trend<0.001) was observed. Less age-associated WC increase was seen with a 20-min/day activity increase; this benefit was significantly stronger for weight training (-0.67 cm, 95% CI -0.93, -0.41) than for MVAA (-0.33 cm, 95% CI -0.40, -0.27), other activities (-0.16 cm, 95% CI -0.28, -0.03), or TV watching (0.08 cm, 95% CI 0.05, 0.12). Substituting 20 min/day of weight training for any other discretionary activity had the strongest inverse association with WC change. MVAA had the strongest inverse association with BW change (-0.23 kg, 95% CI -0.29, -0.17).ConclusionsAmong various activities, weight training had the strongest association with less WC increase. Studies on frequency/volume of weight training and WC change are warranted.

How to progress from discourse to practice? a new agenda for change in medical schools into the next decade

In the context of medical school instruction, the segmented approach of a focus on specialties and excessive use of technology seem to hamper the development of the professional-patient relationship and an understanding of the ethics of this relationship. The real world presents complexities that require multiple approaches. Engagement in the community where health competence is developed allows extending the usefulness of what is learned. Health services are spaces where the relationship between theory and practice in health care are real and where the social role of the university can be revealed. Yet some competencies are still lacking and may require an explicit agenda to enact. Ten topics are presented for focus here: environmental awareness, involvement of students in medical school, social networks, interprofessional learning, new technologies for the management of care, virtual reality, working with errors, training in management for results, concept of leadership, and internationalization of schools. Potential barriers to this agenda are an underinvestment in ambulatory care infrastructure and community-based health care facilities, as well as in information technology offered at these facilities; an inflexible departmental culture; and an environment centered on a discipline-based medical curriculum.