Power generation using wind energy in northwest Karnataka, India

On the backdrop of climate change scenario, there is emphasis on controlling emission of greenhouse gases such as CO2. Major thrust being seen worldwide as well as in India is for generation of electricity from renewable sources like solar and wind. Chitradurga area of Karnataka is identified as a suitable location for the production of electricity from wind turbines because of high wind-energy resource. The power generated and the performance of 18 wind turbines located in this region are studied based on the actual field data collected over the past seven years. Our study shows a good prospect for expansion of power production using wind turbines.

Buildup of aerosols over the Indian Region

Climate change has great significance globally in general and South Asia in particular. Here we have used data from a network of 35 aerosol observatories over the Indian region to generate the first time regional synthesis using primary data and estimate the aerosol trends. On an average, aerosol optical depth (AOD) was found increasing at a rate of 2.3% (of its value in 1985) per year and more rapidly (similar to 4%) during the last decade. If the trends continue so, AOD at several locations would nearly double and approach unity in the next few decades leading to an enhancement in aerosol-induced lower atmospheric warming by a factor of two. However, a regionally averaged scenario can be ascertained only in the coming years, when longer and denser data would become available. The regional and global climate implications of such trends in the forcing elements need to be better assessed using GCMs.

Performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over India

Using continuous and near-real time measurements of the mass concentrations of black carbon (BC) aerosols near the surface, for a period of 1 year (from January to December 2006) from a network of eight observatories spread over different environments of India, a space-time synthesis is generated. The strong seasonal variations observed, with a winter high and summer low, are attributed to the combined effects of changes in synoptic air mass types, modulated strongly by the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics. Spatial distribution shows much higher BC concentration over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) than the peninsular Indian stations. These were examined against the simulations using two chemical transport models, GOCART (Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport) and CHIMERE for the first time over Indian region. Both the model simulations significantly deviated from the measurements at all the stations; more so during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons and over mega cities. However, the CHIMERE model simulations show better agreement compared with the measurements. Notwithstanding this, both the models captured the temporal variations; at seasonal and subseasonal timescales and the natural variabilities (intra-seasonal oscillations) fairly well, especially at the off-equatorial stations. It is hypothesized that an improvement in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) parameterization scheme for tropical environment might lead to better results with GOCART.

AEROSAT - a space-borne sensor for continental aerosols: evaluation of the conceptual model

Even though satellite observations are the most effective means to gather global information in a short span of time, the challenges in this field still remain over continental landmass, despite most of the aerosol sources being land-based. This is a hurdle in global and regional aerosol climate forcing assessment. Retrieval of aerosol properties over land is complicated due to irregular terrain characteristics and the high and largely uncertain surface reflection which acts as `noise' to the much smaller amount of radiation scattered by aerosols, which is the `signal'. In this paper, we describe a satellite sensor the - `Aerosol Satellite (AEROSAT)', which is capable of retrieving aerosols over land with much more accuracy and reduced dependence on models. The sensor, utilizing a set of multi-spectral and multi-angle measurements of polarized components of radiation reflected from the Earth's surface, along with measurements of thermal infrared broadband radiance, results in a large reduction of the `noise' component (compared to the `signal). A conceptual engineering model of AEROSAT has been designed, developed and used to measure the land-surface features in the visible spectral band. Analysing the received signals using a polarization radiative transfer approach, we demonstrate the superiority of this method. It is expected that satellites carrying sensors following the AEROSAT concept would be `self-sufficient', to obtain all the relevant information required for aerosol retrieval from its own measurements.

The Indian Ocean forecast system

In order to meet the ever growing demand for the prediction of oceanographic parametres in the Indian Ocean for a variety of applications, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has recently set-up an operational ocean forecast system, viz. the Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS). This fully automated system, based on a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model issues six-hourly forecasts of the sea-surface temperature, surface currents and depths of the mixed layer and the thermocline up to five-days of lead time. A brief account of INDOFOS and a statistical validation of the forecasts of these parametres using in situ and remote sensing data are presented in this article. The accuracy of the sea-surface temperature forecasts by the system is high in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, whereas it is moderate in the equatorial Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the accuracy of the depth of the thermocline and the isothermal layers and surface current forecasts are higher near the equatorial region, while it is relatively lower in the Bay of Bengal.

Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

A summer monsoon pump to keep the Bay of Bengal salty

The Bay of Bengal receives a large influx of freshwater from precipitation and river discharge. Outflow of excess freshwater and inflow of saltier water is required to prevent the bay from freshening. Relatively fresh water flows out of the bay along its boundaries and inflow of saltier water occurs via the Summer Monsoon Current (SMC), which flows eastward from the Arabian Sea into the bay. This saltier water, however, slides under the lighter surface water of the bay. Maintaining the salt balance of the bay therefore demands upward mixing of this saltier, subsurface water. Here, we show that an efficient mechanism for this mixing is provided by upward pumping of saltier water in several bursts during the summer monsoon along the meandering path of the SMC. Advection by currents can then take this saltier water into the rest of the basin, allowing the bay to stay salty despite a large net freshwater input.

Yanai waves in the western equatorial Indian Ocean

Observations and models have shown the presence of intraseasonal fluctuations in 20-30-day and 10-20-day bands in the equatorial Indian Ocean west of 60 degrees E (WEIO). Their spatial and temporal structures characterize them as Yanai waves, which we label low-frequency (LFYW) and high-frequency (HFYW) Yanai waves, respectively. We explore the dynamics of these intraseasonal signals, using an ocean general circulation model (Modular Ocean Model) and a linear, continuously stratified model. Yanai waves are forced by the meridional wind tau(y) everywhere in the WEIO most strongly during the monsoon seasons. They are forced both directly in the interior ocean and by reflection of the interior response from the western boundary; interference between the interior and boundary responses results in a complex surface pattern that propagates eastward and has nodes. Yanai waves are also forced by instabilities primarily during June/July in a region offshore from the western boundary (52-55 degrees E). At that time, eddies, generated by barotropic instability of the Southern Gyre, are advected southward to the equator. There, they generate a westward-propagating, cross-equatorial flow field, v(eq), with a wave number/frequency spectrum that fits the dispersion relation of a number of Yanai waves, and these waves are efficiently excited. Typically, Yanai waves associated with several baroclinic modes are excited by both wind and eddy forcing; and typically, they superpose to create beams that carry energy vertically and eastward along ray paths. The same processes generate LFYWs and HFYWs, and hence, their responses are similar; differences are traceable to the property that HFYWs have longer wavelengths than LFYWs for each baroclinic mode.

Dynamics of the Indian-Ocean oxygen minimum zones

In the Indian Ocean, mid-depth oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) occur in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The lower part of the Arabian-Sea OMZ (ASOMZ; below 400 m) intensifies northward across the basin; in contrast, its upper part (above 400 m) is located in the central/eastern basin, well east of the most productive regions along the western boundary. The Bay-of-Bengal OMZ (BBOMZ), although strong, is weaker than the ASOMZ. To investigate the processes that maintain the Indian-Ocean OMZs, we obtain a suite of solutions to a coupled biological/physical model. Its physical component is a variable-density, 6 1/2-layer model, in which each layer corresponds to a distinct dynamical regime or water-mass type. Its biological component has six compartments: nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, two size classes of detritus, and oxygen. Because the model grid is non-eddy resolving (0.5 degrees), the biological model also includes a parameterization of enhanced mixing based on the eddy kinetic energy derived from satellite observations. To explore further the impact of local processes on OMZs, we also obtain analytic solutions to a one-dimensional, simplified version of the biological model. Our control run is able to simulate basic features of the oxygen, nutrient, and phytoplankton fields throughout the Indian Ocean. The model OMZs result from a balance, or lack thereof, between a sink of oxygen by remineralization and subsurface oxygen sources due primarily to northward spreading of oxygenated water from the Southern Hemisphere, with a contribution from Persian-Gulf water in the northern Arabian Sea. The northward intensification of the lower ASOMZ results mostly from horizontal mixing since advection is weak in its depth range. The eastward shift of the upper ASOMZ is due primarily to enhanced advection and vertical eddy mixing in the western Arabian Sea, which spread oxygenated waters both horizontally and vertically. Advection carries small detritus from the western boundary into the central/eastern Arabian Sea, where it provides an additional source of remineralization that drives the ASOMZ to suboxic levels. The model BBOMZ is weaker than the ASOMZ because the Bay lacks a remote source of detritus from the western boundary. Although detritus has a prominent annual cycle, the model OMZs do not because there is not enough time for significant remineralization to occur.

Data assimilation using ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) in ROMS model for Indian Ocean

Study of Oceans dynamics and forecast is crucial as it influences the regional climate and other marine activities. Forecasting oceanographic states like sea surface currents, Sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth at different time scales is extremely important for these activities. These forecasts are generated by various ocean general circulation models (OGCM). One such model is the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). Though ROMS can simulate several features of ocean, it cannot reproduce the thermocline of the ocean properly. Solution to this problem is to incorporates data assimilation (DA) in the model. DA system using Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) has been developed for ROMS model to improve the accuracy of the model forecast. To assimilate data temperature and salinity from ARGO data has been used as observation. Assimilated temperature and salinity without localization shows oscillations compared to the model run without assimilation for India Ocean. Same was also found for u and v-velocity fields. With localization we found that the state variables are diverging within the localization scale.

Challenges in vulnerability assessment of forests under climate change

Forest-management goals in the context of climate change are to reduce the adverse impact of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystem services and carbon stocks. For developing an effective adaptation strategy, knowledge on nature and sources of vulnerability of forests is necessary to conserve or enhance carbon sinks. However, assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems is a challenging task, as the mechanisms that determine vulnerability cannot be observed directly. In this article, we list the challenges in forest vulnerability assessments and propose an assessment of inherent vulnerability by using process-based indicators under the current climate. We also suggest periodic assessment of vulnerability, which is necessary to review adaptation strategies for the management of forests and forest carbon stocks.