The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones

The ability of the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in winter [December–February (DJF)] and summer [June–August (JJA)] is investigated in detail. Cyclones are identified as maxima in T42 vorticity at 850 hPa and their propagation is tracked using an objective feature-tracking algorithm. By comparing the historical CMIP5 simulations (1976–2005) and the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; 1979–2008), the authors find that systematic biases affect the number and intensity of North Atlantic cyclones in CMIP5 models. In DJF, the North Atlantic storm track tends to be either too zonal or displaced southward, thus leading to too few and weak cyclones over the Norwegian Sea and too many cyclones in central Europe. In JJA, the position of the North Atlantic storm track is generally well captured but some CMIP5 models underestimate the total number of cyclones. The dynamical intensity of cyclones, as measured by either T42 vorticity at 850 hPa or mean sea level pressure, is too weak in both DJF and JJA. The intensity bias has a hemispheric character, and it cannot be simply attributed to the representation of the North Atlantic large- scale atmospheric state. Despite these biases, the representation of Northern Hemisphere (NH) storm tracks has improved since CMIP3 and some CMIP5 models are able of representing well both the number and the intensity of North Atlantic cyclones. In particular, some of the higher-atmospheric-resolution models tend to have a better representation of the tilt of the North Atlantic storm track and of the intensity of cyclones in DJF.

Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback

The response of the six major summer monsoon systems (the North American monsoon, the northern Africa monsoon, the Asia monsoon, the northern Australasian monsoon, the South America monsoon and the southern Africa monsoon) to mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM), with the focus on the distinct roles of the direct insolation forcing and oceanic feedback. The simulation result is also found to compare well with the NCAR CSM. The direct effects of the change in insolation produce an enhancement of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons and a reduction of the Southern Hemisphere monsoons. Ocean feedbacks produce a further enhancement of the northern Africa monsoon and the North American monsoon. However, ocean feedbacks appear to weaken the Asia monsoon, although the overall effect (direct insolation forcing plus ocean feedback) remains a strengthened monsoon. The impact of ocean feedbacks on the South American and southern African monsoons is relatively small, and therefore these regions, especially the South America, experienced a reduced monsoon regime compared to present. However, there is a strong ocean feedback on the northern Australian monsoon that negates the direct effects of orbital changes and results in a strengthening of austral summer monsoon precipitation in this region. A new synthesis is made for mid-Holocene paleoenvironmental records and is compared with the model simulations. Overall, model simulations produce changes in regional climates that are generally consistent with paleoenvironmental observations.

Cloud banding and winds in intense European cyclones: results from the DIAMET project

The DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExTratropical storms) project aims to improve forecasts of high-impact weather in extratropical cyclones through field measurements, high-resolution numerical modeling, and improved design of ensemble forecasting and data assimilation systems. This article introduces DIAMET and presents some of the first results. Four field campaigns were conducted by the project, one of which, in late 2011, coincided with an exceptionally stormy period marked by an unusually strong, zonal North Atlantic jet stream and a succession of severe windstorms in northwest Europe. As a result, December 2011 had the highest monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index (2.52) of any December in the last 60 years. Detailed observations of several of these storms were gathered using the UK’s BAe146 research aircraft and extensive ground-based measurements. As an example of the results obtained during the campaign, observations are presented of cyclone Friedhelm on 8 December 2011, when surface winds with gusts exceeding 30 m s-1 crossed central Scotland, leading to widespread disruption to transportation and electricity supply. Friedhelm deepened 44 hPa in 24 hours and developed a pronounced bent-back front wrapping around the storm center. The strongest winds at 850 hPa and the surface occurred in the southern quadrant of the storm, and detailed measurements showed these to be most intense in clear air between bands of showers. High-resolution ensemble forecasts from the Met Office showed similar features, with the strongest winds aligned in linear swaths between the bands, suggesting that there is potential for improved skill in forecasts of damaging winds.

A land cover map of Latin America and the Caribbean in the framework of the SERENA project

Land cover maps at different resolutions and mapping extents contribute to modeling and support decision making processes. Because land cover affects and is affected by climate change, it is listed among the 13 terrestrial essential climate variables. This paper describes the generation of a land cover map for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) for the year 2008. It was developed in the framework of the project Latin American Network for Monitoring and Studying of Natural Resources (SERENA), which has been developed within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLaTIF). The SERENA land cover map for LAC integrates: 1) the local expertise of SERENA network members to generate the training and validation data, 2) a methodology for land cover mapping based on decision trees using MODIS time series, and 3) class membership estimates to account for pixel heterogeneity issues. The discrete SERENA land cover product, derived from class memberships, yields an overall accuracy of 84% and includes an additional layer representing the estimated per-pixel confidence. The study demonstrates in detail the use of class memberships to better estimate the area of scarce classes with a scattered spatial distribution. The land cover map is already available as a printed wall map and will be released in digital format in the near future. The SERENA land cover map was produced with a legend and classification strategy similar to that used by the North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) to generate a land cover map of the North American continent, that will allow to combine both maps to generate consistent data across America facilitating continental monitoring and modeling

Generation and analysis of the 2005 land cover map for Mexico using 250m MODIS data

Land cover plays a key role in global to regional monitoring and modeling because it affects and is being affected by climate change and thus became one of the essential variables for climate change studies. National and international organizations require timely and accurate land cover information for reporting and management actions. The North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) is an international cooperation of organizations and entities of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to map land cover change of North America's changing environment. This paper presents the methodology to derive the land cover map of Mexico for the year 2005 which was integrated in the NALCMS continental map. Based on a time series of 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and an extensive sample data base the complexity of the Mexican landscape required a specific approach to reflect land cover heterogeneity. To estimate the proportion of each land cover class for every pixel several decision tree classifications were combined to obtain class membership maps which were finally converted to a discrete map accompanied by a confidence estimate. The map yielded an overall accuracy of 82.5% (Kappa of 0.79) for pixels with at least 50% map confidence (71.3% of the data). An additional assessment with 780 randomly stratified samples and primary and alternative calls in the reference data to account for ambiguity indicated 83.4% overall accuracy (Kappa of 0.80). A high agreement of 83.6% for all pixels and 92.6% for pixels with a map confidence of more than 50% was found for the comparison between the land cover maps of 2005 and 2006. Further wall-to-wall comparisons to related land cover maps resulted in 56.6% agreement with the MODIS land cover product and a congruence of 49.5 with Globcover.

Voluntary export restraints between Britain and Japan: the case of the UK car market (1971–2002)

The rise in international markets of new, productive Japanese car manufacturers provoked intense world competition, which created serious doubts about the economic sustainability of an industry mostly dominated until the 1970s by European and North-American multinational companies. Ultimately, this crisis provoked a deep transformation of the industry, with consequences that had a permanent impact on European companies in the sector. American and later European manufacturers were successful in lobbying governments to provide protection. Using a rich source of data from the UK, I show that the ‘new trade policy’, voluntary export restraint (VER), placed on Japanese exports of new cars from 1977 to December 1999, was binding. This case study illustrates the strategies used by Japanese manufacturers to gain access to the European market through the UK market via strategic alliances and later through transplant production, against which continental European nation states were unable to fully insulate themselves. It is also shown that the policy had a profound effect on the nature of Japanese products, as Japanese firms responded to the quantity restraints by radically altering the product characteristics of their automobiles and shifting towards larger autos and new goods, to maximise their profits subject to the binding constraint.

Human gut microbiota and its relationship to health and disease

Probiotics are live microorganisms that confer a health benefit on the host when administered in appropriate amounts. Over 700 randomized, controlled, human studies have been conducted with probiotics thus far, with the results providing strong support for the use of probiotics in the clinical prevention or treatment of gastrointestinal tract disorders and metabolic syndrome. The present review is based on webinar presentations that were developed by the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) in partnership with the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics (ISAPP) and the North American branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America). The presentations provided gastroenterologists and researchers with fundamental and current scientific information on the influence of gut microbiota on human health and disease, as well as clinical intervention strategies and practical guidelines for the use of probiotics and prebiotics.

The drivers of corporate climate change strategies and public policy: a new resource-based view perspective

Effective public policy to mitigate climate change footprints should build on data-driven analysis of firm-level strategies. This article’s conceptual approach augments the resource-based view (RBV) of the firm and identifies investments in four firm-level resource domains (Governance, Information management, Systems, and Technology [GISTe]) to develop capabilities in climate change impact mitigation. The authors denote the resulting framework as the GISTe model, which frames their analysis and public policy recommendations. This research uses the 2008 Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) database, with high-quality information on firm-level climate change strategies for 552 companies from North America and Europe. In contrast to the widely accepted myth that European firms are performing better than North American ones, the authors find a different result. Many firms, whether European or North American, do not just “talk” about climate change impact mitigation, but actually do “walk the talk.” European firms appear to be better than their North American counterparts in “walk I,” denoting attention to governance, information management, and systems. But when it comes down to “walk II,” meaning actual Technology-related investments, North American firms’ performance is equal or superior to that of the European companies. The authors formulate public policy recommendations to accelerate firm-level, sector-level, and cluster-level implementation of climate change strategies.

Intersections and differentiations: a corpus-assisted discourse study of gender representations in the British press before, during and after the London Olympics 2012

This study examines the impact of a global sports event on gender representations in media reporting. Whereas previous research on gender, sport and media has been mainly concerned with sports events in the North American or Australian context, this study investigates the British media reporting before, during and after the London Olympics 2012. Our study follows the approach of Corpus-Assisted Discourse Studies (CADS) and uses both quantitative and qualitative research procedures. The results reveal more balanced gender representations during the London Olympics in that the ‘regular’ biased associations were supressed in favour of positive references to female achievements. However, little carry-though of the ‘gains’ was noted. Also, this study shows that the positive associations intersected with national sentiments and were used to celebrate the nation-state. At the same time, some subtle resistance was observed to accepting as ‘truly’ British the non-white athletes and those not born in Britain.

Effects of exercise training on autonomic dysfunction management in an experimental model of menopause and myocardial infarction

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of exercise training on cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction in ovariectomized rats submitted to myocardial infarction. Methods: Female Wistar rats were divided into the following ovariectomized groups: sedentary ovariectomized (SO), trained ovariectomized (TO), sedentary ovariectomized infarcted (SOI), and trained ovariectomized infarcted (TOI). Trained groups were submitted to an exercise training protocol on a treadmill (8 wk). Arterial baroreflex sensitivity was evaluated by heart rate responses to arterial pressure changes, and cardiopulmonary baroreflex sensitivity was tested by bradycardic and hypotension responses to serotonin injection. Vagal and sympathetic effects were calculated by pharmacological blockade. Results: Arterial pressure was reduced in the TO in comparison with the SO group and increased in the TOI in relation to the SOI group. Exercise training improved the baroreflex sensitivity in both the TO and TOI groups. The TOI group displayed improvement in cardiopulmonary reflex sensitivity compared with the SOI group at the 16 mu g/kg serotonin dose. Exercise training enhanced the vagal effect in both the TO (45%) and TOI (46%) animals compared with the SO and SOI animals and reduced the sympathetic effect in the TOI (38%) in comparison with the SOI animals. Significant correlations were obtained between bradycardic baroreflex responses and vagal (r = -0.7, P < 0.005) and sympathetic (r = 0.7, P < 0.001) effects. Conclusions: These results indicate that exercise training in ovariectomized rats submitted to myocardial infarction improves resting hemodynamic status and reflex control of the circulation, which may be due to an increase in the vagal component. This suggests a homeostatic role for exercise training in reducing the autonomic impairment of myocardial infarction in postmenopausal women.

Ecological niche modeling and principal component analysis of Krameria Loefl. (Krameriaceae)

Krameria plants are found in arid regions of the Americas and present a floral system that attracts oil-collecting bees. Niche modeling and multivariate tools were applied to examine ecological and geographical aspects of the 18 species of this genus, using occurrence data obtained from herbaria and literature. Niche modeling showed the potential areas of occurrence for each species and the analysis of climatic variables suggested that North American species occur mostly in deserted or xeric ecoregions with monthly precipitation below 140 mm and large temperature ranges. South American species are mainly found in deserted ecoregions and subtropical savannas where monthly precipitation often exceeds 150 mm and temperature ranges are smaller. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) performed with values of temperature and precipitation showed that the distribution limits of Krameria species are primarily associated with maximum and minimum temperatures. Modeling of Krameria species proved to be a useful tool for analyzing the influence of the ecological niche variables in the geographical distribution of species, providing new information to guide future investigations. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Canga renatae, a new genus and species of Cyphophthalmi from Brazilian Amazon caves (Opiliones: Neogoveidae)

A new genus and species of Cyphophthalmi, Canga renatae gen. nov., sp. nov., is described in the family Neogoveidae from a system of caves in the Serra de Carajas, Para State, Brazil. Canga can be easily distinguished from other neogoveid genera by the presence of a dentate claw on leg I, a unique character among known cyphophthalmid species, and by the free coxa II, which is fused to coxae III and IV in all the other neogoveid species except for the North American Metasiro. The new genus also differs from other Neotropical neogoveids in the lack of a dorsal crest on the chelicerae and in the lack of opisthosomal glands. The finding of a neogoveid in the Para State greatly increases the known distribution of South American cyphophtalmids into the Eastern Brazilian Amazon forest.

New species of Amphisbaena with a nonautotomic and dorsally tuberculate blunt tail from state of Bahia, Brazil (Squamata, Amphisbaenidae)

A new species of Amphisbaena is described from Fazenda Caraibas, municipality of Mucuge, state of Bahia, Brazil, in the northern portion of the Serra do Espinhaco. The new species is a small amphisbaenian without precloacal pores, 210-213 body annuli, 12-13 tail annuli without evident autotomic site, and 14 dorsal and 14-15 ventral segments per annuli at midbody. The striking difference of this form is the presence of small tubercles on the dorsal region of its tail. This feature is unique among its congeners, although Rhineura floridana, a North American amphisbaenian, has tubercles on its tail. We suggest that the presence of tubercles on the tail of Amphisbaena sp. nov. and Rhineura floridana has arisen independently.

Association of complement factor H Y402H polymorphism and age-related macular degeneration in Brazilian patients

Purpose: The aim of this study was investigate the association between complement Factor H polymorphism (Y402H) and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Brazilian patients. Methods: Patients with AMD aged 50 or more and age-matched healthy controls were enrolled in the study. Genomic DNA was isolated from leucocytes of patients and controls; the Y402H polymorphism of complement Factor H gene (CFH) was determined by polymerase chain reaction directed sequencing. Results: The frequency of 1277C allele of Factor H was 56.30% in patients with AMD compared with 36.51% in controls (p-value = 0.001). The genotypic distribution differed significantly between the two groups (1277CC 36.98%, 1277CT 38.65% and 1277TT 24.37% for AMD group; 1277CC 13.16%, 1277CT 46.71% and 1277TT 40.13% for controls, p-value = 0.001). The odds ratio for patients with AMD carrying only one 1277C allele was 1.36 and for those carrying two 1277C alleles was 4.63, when compared to the control group. Conclusions: These results suggest the Y402H polymorphism of CFH is a risk factor to the development of AMD in Brazilian patients. This is in accordance with findings from the majority of previous study population in Europe and North American.