Essays on the measurement of school efficiency

Measuring school efficiency is a challenging task. First, a performance measurement technique has to be selected. Within Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), one such technique, alternative models have been developed in order to deal with environmental variables. The majority of these models lead to diverging results. Second, the choice of input and output variables to be included in the efficiency analysis is often dictated by data availability. The choice of the variables remains an issue even when data is available. As a result, the choice of technique, model and variables is probably, and ultimately, a political judgement. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods can help the decision makers to select the most suitable model. The number of selection criteria should remain parsimonious and not be oriented towards the results of the models in order to avoid opportunistic behaviour. The selection criteria should also be backed by the literature or by an expert group. Once the most suitable model is identified, the principle of permanence of methods should be applied in order to avoid a change of practices over time. Within DEA, the two-stage model developed by Ray (1991) is the most convincing model which allows for an environmental adjustment. In this model, an efficiency analysis is conducted with DEA followed by an econometric analysis to explain the efficiency scores. An environmental variable of particular interest, tested in this thesis, consists of the fact that operations are held, for certain schools, on multiple sites. Results show that the fact of being located on more than one site has a negative influence on efficiency. A likely way to solve this negative influence would consist of improving the use of ICT in school management and teaching. Planning new schools should also consider the advantages of being located on a unique site, which allows reaching a critical size in terms of pupils and teachers. The fact that underprivileged pupils perform worse than privileged pupils has been public knowledge since Coleman et al. (1966). As a result, underprivileged pupils have a negative influence on school efficiency. This is confirmed by this thesis for the first time in Switzerland. Several countries have developed priority education policies in order to compensate for the negative impact of disadvantaged socioeconomic status on school performance. These policies have failed. As a result, other actions need to be taken. In order to define these actions, one has to identify the social-class differences which explain why disadvantaged children underperform. Childrearing and literary practices, health characteristics, housing stability and economic security influence pupil achievement. Rather than allocating more resources to schools, policymakers should therefore focus on related social policies. For instance, they could define pre-school, family, health, housing and benefits policies in order to improve the conditions for disadvantaged children.

Quorum-sensing-negative (lasR) mutants of Pseudomonas aeruginosa avoid cell lysis and death.

In Pseudomonas aeruginosa, N-acylhomoserine lactone signals regulate the expression of several hundreds of genes, via the transcriptional regulator LasR and, in part, also via the subordinate regulator RhlR. This regulatory network termed quorum sensing contributes to the virulence of P. aeruginosa as a pathogen. The fact that two supposed PAO1 wild-type strains from strain collections were found to be defective for LasR function because of independent point mutations in the lasR gene led to the hypothesis that loss of quorum sensing might confer a selective advantage on P. aeruginosa under certain environmental conditions. A convenient plate assay for LasR function was devised, based on the observation that lasR mutants did not grow on adenosine as the sole carbon source because a key degradative enzyme, nucleoside hydrolase (Nuh), is positively controlled by LasR. The wild-type PAO1 and lasR mutants showed similar growth rates when incubated in nutrient yeast broth at pH 6.8 and 37 degrees C with good aeration. However, after termination of growth during 30 to 54 h of incubation, when the pH rose to > or = 9, the lasR mutants were significantly more resistant to cell lysis and death than was the wild type. As a consequence, the lasR mutant-to-wild-type ratio increased about 10-fold in mixed cultures incubated for 54 h. In a PAO1 culture, five consecutive cycles of 48 h of incubation sufficed to enrich for about 10% of spontaneous mutants with a Nuh(-) phenotype, and five of these mutants, which were functionally complemented by lasR(+), had mutations in lasR. The observation that, in buffered nutrient yeast broth, the wild type and lasR mutants exhibited similar low tendencies to undergo cell lysis and death suggests that alkaline stress may be a critical factor providing a selective survival advantage to lasR mutants.

Comment on "Selection of the Saffman-Taylor finger width in the absence of surface tension: an exact result"

A Comment on the Letter by Mark Mineev-Weinstein, Phys. Rev. Lett. 80, 2113 (1998). The authors of the Letter offer a Reply.

Sexual selection in genetic colour-polymorphic species: a review of experimental studies and perspectives

Sexual selection theory has primarily focussed on the role of mating preferences for the best individuals in the evolution of condition-dependent ornaments, traits that signal absolute quality. Because the most suitable mate for one individual is not always the best for others, however, we argue that non-directional mate choice can promote the evolution of alternative morphs that are not condition-dependent in their expression (i.e. genetic polymorphism). We list the different mate-choice rules (i.e. all individuals have the same preference; preference depends on the chooser's morph; individuals mate preferentially with conspecifics displaying an uncommon or the most frequent morph) and review experimental studies that investigated mate choice in natural populations of colour-polymorphic animals. Our review emphasises that although the experimental data support the idea that sexual selection plays an important role in the evolution of genetic colour polymorphism in many different ways, little is known about the adaptive value of each mate-choice strategy and about their implication in the evolutionary stability of colour polymorphism. One way of solving this problem is to determine the adaptive function of colour morphs, a worthwhile objective, because better understanding of mate-choice rules in polymorphic species should provide important insights into sexual-selection processes and, in turn, into the maintenance of genetic variation.

Exotic dynamically generated baryons with negative charm quantum number

Following a model based on the SU(8) symmetry that treats heavy pseudoscalars and heavy vector mesons on an equal footing, as required by heavy quark symmetry, we study the interaction of baryons and mesons in coupled channels within an unitary approach that generates dynamically poles in the scattering T-matrix. We concentrate in the exotic channels with negative charm quantum number for which there is the experimental claim of one state.

Selection, shape and relaxation of fronts: A numerical study of the effects of inertia.

We study the problem of front propagation in the presence of inertia. We extend the analytical approach for the overdamped problem to this case, and present numerical results to support our theoretical predictions. Specifically, we conclude that the velocity and shape selection problem can still be described in terms of the metastable, nonlinear, and linear overdamped regimes. We study the characteristic relaxation dynamics of these three regimes, and the existence of degenerate (¿quenched¿) solutions.

Reply to Comment on 'Two-finger selection theory in the Saffman-Taylor problem

We clarify the meaning of the results of Phys. Rev. E 60, R5013 (1999). We discuss the use and implications of periodic boundary conditions, as opposed to rigid-wall ones. We briefly argue that the solutions of the paper above are physically relevant as part of a more general issue, namely the possible generalization to dynamics, of the microscopic solvability scenario of selection.

Natural selection in a postglacial range expansion: the case of the colour cline in the European barn owl.

Gradients of variation-or clines-have always intrigued biologists. Classically, they have been interpreted as the outcomes of antagonistic interactions between selection and gene flow. Alternatively, clines may also establish neutrally with isolation by distance (IBD) or secondary contact between previously isolated populations. The relative importance of natural selection and these two neutral processes in the establishment of clinal variation can be tested by comparing genetic differentiation at neutral genetic markers and at the studied trait. A third neutral process, surfing of a newly arisen mutation during the colonization of a new habitat, is more difficult to test. Here, we designed a spatially explicit approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) simulation framework to evaluate whether the strong cline in the genetically based reddish coloration observed in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) arose as a by-product of a range expansion or whether selection has to be invoked to explain this colour cline, for which we have previously ruled out the actions of IBD or secondary contact. Using ABC simulations and genetic data on 390 individuals from 20 locations genotyped at 22 microsatellites loci, we first determined how barn owls colonized Europe after the last glaciation. Using these results in new simulations on the evolution of the colour phenotype, and assuming various genetic architectures for the colour trait, we demonstrate that the observed colour cline cannot be due to the surfing of a neutral mutation. Taking advantage of spatially explicit ABC, which proved to be a powerful method to disentangle the respective roles of selection and drift in range expansions, we conclude that the formation of the colour cline observed in the barn owl must be due to natural selection.

Validation and clinical utility of a 70-gene prognostic signature for women with node-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: A 70-gene signature was previously shown to have prognostic value in patients with node-negative breast cancer. Our goal was to validate the signature in an independent group of patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 307, with 137 events after a median follow-up of 13.6 years) from five European centers were divided into high- and low-risk groups based on the gene signature classification and on clinical risk classifications. Patients were assigned to the gene signature low-risk group if their 5-year distant metastasis-free survival probability as estimated by the gene signature was greater than 90%. Patients were assigned to the clinicopathologic low-risk group if their 10-year survival probability, as estimated by Adjuvant! software, was greater than 88% (for estrogen receptor [ER]-positive patients) or 92% (for ER-negative patients). Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare time to distant metastases, disease-free survival, and overall survival in high- versus low-risk groups. RESULTS: The 70-gene signature outperformed the clinicopathologic risk assessment in predicting all endpoints. For time to distant metastases, the gene signature yielded HR = 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.35 to 4.00) without adjustment for clinical risk and hazard ratios ranging from 2.13 to 2.15 after adjustment for various estimates of clinical risk; clinicopathologic risk using Adjuvant! software yielded an unadjusted HR = 1.68 (95% CI = 0.92 to 3.07). For overall survival, the gene signature yielded an unadjusted HR = 2.79 (95% CI = 1.60 to 4.87) and adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 2.63 to 2.89; clinicopathologic risk yielded an unadjusted HR = 1.67 (95% CI = 0.93 to 2.98). For patients in the gene signature high-risk group, 10-year overall survival was 0.69 for patients in both the low- and high-clinical risk groups; for patients in the gene signature low-risk group, the 10-year survival rates were 0.88 and 0.89, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 70-gene signature adds independent prognostic information to clinicopathologic risk assessment for patients with early breast cancer.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Blood corticosterone levels and intersexual selection games: best-of-bad-job strategies of male common lizards

Glucocorticoids affect physiology and behaviour, reproduction and potentially sexual selection as well. Shortterm and moderate glucocorticoid elevations are suggested to be adaptive, and prolonged and high elevations may be extremely harmful. This suggests that optimal reproductive strategies, and thus sexual selection, may be dose dependent. Here, we investigate effects of moderate and high elevations of blood corticosterone levels on intra- and intersexual behaviour and mating success of male common lizards Lacerta vivipara. Females showed less interest and more aggressive behaviour towards high corticosterone males and blood corticosterone levels affected male reproductive strategy. Males of moderate and high corticosterone elevations, compared with Control males, showed increased interest (i.e., higher number of chases, tongue extrusions, and approaches) towards females and high corticosterone males initiated more copulation attempts. However, neither increased male interest nor increased copulation attempts resulted in more copulations. This provides evidence for a best-of-a-bad-job strategy, where males with higher corticosterone levels compensated for reduced female interest and increased aggressive female behaviour directed towards them, by showing higher interest and by conducting more copulation attempts. Blood corticosterone levels affected intrasexual selection as well since moderate corticosterone levels positively affected male dominance, but dominance did not affect mating success. These findings underline the importance of female mate choice and are in line with adaptive compensatory behaviours of males. They further show that glucocorticoid effects on behaviour are dose dependent and that they have important implications for sexual selection and social interactions, and might potentially affect Darwinian fitness.

Chemoendocrine compared with endocrine adjuvant therapies for node-negative breast cancer: predictive value of centrally reviewed expression of estrogen and progesterone receptors--International Breast Cancer Study Group.

PURPOSE: To centrally assess estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PgR) levels by immunohistochemistry and investigate their predictive value for benefit of chemo-endocrine compared with endocrine adjuvant therapy alone in two randomized clinical trials for node-negative breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VIII compared cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) chemotherapy for 6 cycles followed by endocrine therapy with goserelin with either modality alone in pre- and perimenopausal patients. Trial IX compared three cycles of CMF followed by tamoxifen for 5 years versus tamoxifen alone in postmenopausal patients. Central Pathology Office reviewed 883 (83%) of 1,063 patients on Trial VIII and 1,365 (82%) of 1,669 on Trial IX and determined ER and PgR by immunohistochemistry. Disease-free survival (DFS) was compared across the spectrum of expression of each receptor using the Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot methodology. RESULTS: Both receptors displayed a bimodal distribution, with substantial proportions showing no staining (receptor absent) and most of the remainder showing a high percentage of stained cells. Chemo-endocrine therapy yielded DFS superior to endocrine therapy alone for patients with receptor-absent tumors, and in some cases also for those with low levels of receptor expression. Among patients with ER-expressing tumors, additional prediction of benefit was suggested in absent or low PgR in Trial VIII but not in Trial IX. CONCLUSION: Low levels of ER and PgR are predictive of the benefit of adding chemotherapy to endocrine therapy. Low PgR may add further prediction among pre- and perimenopausal but not postmenopausal patients whose tumors express ER.