The integration of coastal zone management into national development planning

The broad acceptance and collective commitment of countries to the tasks involved in the implementation of Agenda 21, Chapter 17, have profound implications vis-à-vis the interplay between coastal zone management (CZM) and national development planning (NDP). It appears that in many countries, CZM has evolved in isolation from the mainstream of national development processes. The paper examines various forms and elements for the effective integration of CZM into NDP.

Assessing the consequence of land use change on agricultural productivity in China

China's cultivated land has been undergoing dramatic changes along with its rapidly growing economy and population. The impacts of land use transformation on food production at the national scale, however, have been poorly understood due to the lack of detailed spatially explicit agricultural productivity information on cropland change and crop productivity. This study evaluates the effect of the cropland transformation on agricultural productivity by combining the land use data of China for the period of 1990-2000 from TM images and a satellite-based NPP (net primary production) model driven with NOAH/AVHRR data. The cropland area of China has a net increase of 2.79 Mha in the study period, which causes a slightly increased agricultural productivity (6.96 Mt C) at the national level. Although the newly cultivated lands compensated for the loss from urban expansion, but the contribution to production is insignificant because of the low productivity. The decrease in crop production resulting from urban expansion is about twice of that from abandonment of arable lands to forests and grasslands. The productivity of arable lands occupied by urban expansion was 80% higher than that of the newly cultivated lands in the regions with unfavorable natural conditions. Significance of cropland transformation impacts is spatially diverse with the differences in land use change intensity and land productivity across China. The increase in arable land area and yet decline in land quality may reduce the production potential and sustainability of China's agro-ecosystems. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: A case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decline in medicinal and forage species with warming is mediated by plant traits on the Tibetan Plateau

Experimental studies of how global changes and human activities affect plant diversity often focus on broad measures of diversity and discuss the implications of these changes for ecosystem function. We examined how experimental warming and grazing affected species within plant groups of direct importance to Tibetan pastoralists: medicinal plants used by humans and palatable plants consumed by livestock. Warming resulted in species losses from both the medicinal and palatable plant groups; however, differential relative vulnerability to warming occurred. With respect to the percent of warming-induced species losses, the overall plant community lost 27%, medicinal plants lost 21%, and non-medicinal plants lost 40% of species. Losses of palatable and non-palatable species were similar to losses in the overall plant community. The deep-rootedness of medicinal plants resulted in lowered sensitivity to warming, whereas the shallow-rootedness of non-medicinal plants resulted in greater sensitivity to warming; the variable rooting depth of palatable and non-palatable plants resulted in an intermediate response to warming. Predicting the vulnerability of plant groups to human activities can be enhanced by knowledge of plant traits, their response to specific drivers, and their distribution within plant groups. Knowledge of the mechanisms through which a driver operates, and the evolutionary interaction of plants with that driver, will aid predictions. Future steps to protect ecosystem services furnished by medicinal and palatable plants will be required under the novel stress of a warmer climate. Grazing may be an important tool in maintaining some of these services under future warming.

末次盛冰期以来中国陆地生态系统碳储量变化研究

Carbon is an essential element for life, food and energy. It is also a key element in the greenhouse gases and therefore plays a vital role in climatic changes. The rapid increase in atmospheric concentration of CO_2 over the past 150 years, reaching current concentrations of about 370 ppmv, corresponds with combustion of fossii fuels since the beginning of the industrial age. Conversion of forested land to agricultural use has also redistributed carbon from plants and soils to the atmosphere. These human activities have significantly altered the global carbon cycle. Understanding the consequences of these activities in the coming decades is critical for formulating economic, energy, technology, trade, and security policies that will affect civilization for generations. Under the auspices of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), several large international scientific efforts are focused on elucidating the various aspects of the global carbon cycle of the past decade. It is only possible to balance the global carbon cycle for the 1990s if there is net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems of around 2 Pg C/a. There are now some independent, direct evidences for the existence of such a sink. Policymarkers involved in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN-FCCC) are striving to reach consensuses on a 'safe path' for future emissions, the credible predictions on where and how long the terrestrial sink will either persist at its current level, or grow/decline in the future, are important to advice the policy process. The changes of terrestrial carbon storage depend not only on human activities, but also on biogeochemical and climatological processes and their interaction with the carbon cycles. In this thesis, the climate-induced changes and human-induced changes of carbon storage in China since the past 20,000 years are examined. Based on the data of the soil profiles investigated during China's Second National Soil Survey (1979-1989), the forest biomass measured during China's Fourth National Forest Resource Inventory (1989-1993), the grass biomass investigated during the First National Grassland Resource Survey (1980-1991), and the data collected from a collection of published literatures, the current terrestrial carbon storage in China is estimated to -144.1 Pg C, including -136.8 Pg C in soil and -7.3 Pg C in vegetation. The soil organic (SOC) and inorganic carbon (SIC) storage are -78.2 Pg C and -58.6 Pg C, respectively. In the vegetation reservoir, the forest carbon storage is -5.3 Pg C, and the other of-1.4 Pg C is in the grassland. Under the natural conditions, the SOC, SIC, forest and grassland carbon storage are -85.3 Pg C, -62.6 Pg C, -24.5 Pg C and -5.3 Pg C, respectively. Thus, -29.6 Pg C organic carbon has been lost due to land use with a decrease of -20.6%. At the same time, the SIC storage also has been decreased by -4.0 Pg C (-6.4%). These suggest that human activity has caused significant carbon loss in terrestrial carbon storage of China, especially in the forest ecosystem (-76% loss). Using the Paleocarbon Model (PCM) developed by Wu et al. in this paper, total terrestrial organic carbon storage in China in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was -114.8 Pg C, including -23.1 Pg C in vegetation and -86.7 Pg C in soil. At the Middle Holocene (MH), the vegetation, soil and total carbon were -37.3 Pg C, -93.9 Pg C and -136.0 Pg C, respectively. This implies a gain of-21.2 Pg C in the terrestrial carbon storage from LGM to HM mainly due to the temperature increase. However, a loss of-14.4 Pg C of terrestrial organic carbon occurred in China under the current condition (before 1850) compared with the MH time, mainly due to the precipitation decrease associated with the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. These results also suggest that the terrestrial ecosystem in China has a substantial potential in the restoration of carbon storage. This might be expected to provide an efficient way to mitigate the greenhouse warming through land management practices. Assuming that half of the carbon loss in the degraded terrestrial ecosystem in current forest and grass areas are restored during the next 50 years or so, the terrestrial ecosystem in China may sequestrate -12.0 Pg of organic carbon from the atmosphere, which represents a considerable offset to the industry's CO2 emission. If the ' Anthropocene' Era will be another climate optimum like MH due to the greenhouse effect, the sequestration would be increased again by -4.3 - 9.0 Pg C in China.

Evaluation of a national evidence-based health care course via teleconference in a developing country

Rationale, aims and objectives Continuing health education is essential but challenged. in 2006, the Brazilian Cochrane Center, in collaboration with the Ministry of Health, launched a mass teaching initiative in evidence-based health care (EBH) for public-sector professionals via teleconferencing. This 152-hour, interactive EBH course has enrolled over 4500 professionals. This study aimed to assess the acquisition EBH knowledge and skills, as well as the attitudes and perceptions of a sample of students enrolled in the 2009 course via teleconferencing.Methods This prospective cohort study analyzed three aspects of this 152-hour EBH course that recruited 1040 volunteer participants, all public health sector employees working in 131 different hospitals or health agencies. Pre- and post-course tests using a modified version of the Berlin questionnaire with 20 multiple-choice questions were used to examine knowledge acquisition in a sample of 297 students. Tests were completed upon registration and at course completion. the research projects submitted by 872 participants were evaluated to assess skill acquisition. Answers to an anonymous survey assessed the attitudes and perceptions of 914 participants.Results There was a significant increase in knowledge from baseline to course completion (mean scores 8.2 +/- 3.3 versus 13.7 +/- 3.0, P < 0.001). Over 90% of the research projects were judged to be of adequate quality (appropriate rationale for the study, well-formulated research question and feasible execution); over 95% of the participants were satisfied with the course.Conclusion the Brazilian EBH course via teleconference improved the knowledge and skills of public-sector health professionals and was approved by the vast majority of students.

How smokers may react to cigarette taxes and price increases in Brazil: data from a national survey

Background: Despite being the third largest tobacco producer in the world, Brazil has developed a comprehensive tobacco control policy that includes a broad restriction on both advertising and smoking in indoor public places, compulsory pictorial warning labels, and a menthol cigarette ban. However, tax and pricing policies have been developed slowly and only very recently were stronger measures implemented. This study investigated the expected responses of smokers to hypothetical price increases in Brazil.Methods: We analyzed smokers' responses to hypothetical future price increases according to sociodemographic characteristics and smoking conditions in a multistage sample of Brazilian current cigarette smokers aged >= 14 years (n = 500). Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between possible responses and different predictors.Results: in most subgroups investigated, smokers most frequently said they would react to a hypothetical price increase by taking up alternatives that might have a positive impact on health, i.e., they would try to stop smoking (52.3%) or smoke fewer cigarettes (46.8%). However, a considerable percentage responded that they would use alternatives that would reduce the effect of price increases, such as the same brand with lower cost (48.1%). After controlling for sex age group (14-19, 20-39, 40-59, and >= 60 years), schooling level (>= 9 versus <= 9 years), number of cigarettes per day (>20 versus <= 20), and stage of change for smoking cessation (precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation), lower levels of dependence were positively associated with the response I would try to stop smoking (odds ratio [OR], 2.19). Young age was associated with I would decrease the number of cigarettes (OR, 3.44). A low schooling level was strongly associated with all responses.Conclusions: Taxes and prices increases have great potential to stimulate cessation or reduction of cigarette consumption further among two important vulnerable populations of smokers in Brazil: young smokers and those of low educational level. the results from the present study also suggest that seeking illegal products may reduce the impact of increased taxes, but does not eliminate it.

Evaluation of the Specialist Libraries/Communities of Practice. Report for National Library for Health

Cooper, J., Spink, S., Thomas, R. & Urquhart, C. (2005). Evaluation of the Specialist Libraries/Communities of Practice. Report for National Library for Health. Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, University of Wales Aberystwyth. Sponsorship: National Library for Health (NLH)

Assessing training and professional development needs of library staff. Report for National Library of Health

Urquhart, C., Spink, S. & Thomas, R., Assessing training and professional development needs of library staff. Report for National Library of Health. (2005). Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, University of Wales Aberystwyth Sponsorship: National Library for Health (NHS Information Authority)

Moving Communities of Practice forward: the challenge for the National electronic Library for Health and its Virtual Branch Libraries

Yeoman, A., Urquhart, C. & Sharp, S. (2003). Moving Communities of Practice forward: the challenge for the National electronic Library for Health and its Virtual Branch Libraries. Health Informatics Journal, 9(4), 241-252. Previously appeared as a conference paper for the iSHIMR2003 conference (Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Health Information Management Research, June 1-3, 2003, Boras, Sweden) Sponsorship: NHS Information Authority/National electronic Library for Health

Developing communities of practice in the NeLH (National electronic Library for Health)

Urquhart, C., Yeoman, A., Sharp, S. (2003). Developing communities of practice in the NeLH (National electronic Library for Health). In Proceedings of the UKAIS (UK Academy for Information Systems) annual conference, University of Warwick, April 2003. Sponsorship: NHS Information Authority/National electronic Library for Health

Procurement of electronic content across the UK National Health Service and Higher Education sectors. Report to JISC executive and LKDN executive.

Spink, S., Urquhart, C., Cox, A. & Higher Education Academy - Information and Computer Sciences Subject Centre. (2007). Procurement of electronic content across the UK National Health Service and Higher Education sectors. Report to JISC executive and LKDN executive. Sponsorship: JISC/LKDN

Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK

Urquhart, C. J., Cox, A. M.& Spink, S. (2007). Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK. Interlending & Document Supply, 35(3), 164-170. Sponsorship: JISC, LKDN

Ignorance is no Defence but is Inaccessibility? On the Accessibility of National Laws to Foreign Online Publishers

Kohl, U. (2005). Ignorance is no Defence but is Inaccessibility? On the Accessibility of National Laws to Foreign Online Publishers. Information & Communities Technology Law, 14 (1), 25-41. RAE2008 Information & Communications Technology Law Volume 14, Issue 1, 2005 Special Issue: GATED COMMUNITIES

HIV/AIDS and national security

McInnes, C., 'HIV/AIDS and national security', in: AIDS and Governance, N. Poku, A. Whiteside and B. Sandkjaer (eds.),(Aldershot: Ashgate, 2007), pp.93-111 RAE2008