Effect of air-temperature and diet composition on the drying process of pellets for japanese abalone (Haliotis discus hannai) feeding

The aim of this research was to study the effect of air-temperature and diet composition on the mass transfer kinetics during the drying process of pellets used for Japanese Abalone (Haliotis discus hannai) feeding. In the experimental design, three temperatures were used for convective drying, as well as three different diet compositions (Diets A, B and C), in which the amount of fishmeal, spirulin, algae, fish oil and cornstarch varied. The water diffusion coefficient of the pellets was determined using the equation of Fick's second law, which resulted in values between 0.84-1.94×10-10 m²/s. The drying kinetics was modeled using Page, Modified Page, Root of time, Exponential, Logarithmic, Two-Terms, Modified Henderson-Pabis and Weibull models. In addition, two new models, referred to as 'Proposed' models 1 and 2, were used to simulate this process. According to the statistical tests applied, the models that best fitted the experimental data were Modified Henderson-Pabis, Weibull and Proposed model 2, respectively. Bifactorial analysis of variance ANOVA showed that Diet A (fishmeal 44%, spirulin 9%, fish oil 1% and cornstarch 36%) presented the highest diffusion coefficient values, which were favored by the temperature increase in the drying process.

Multivariate study and regression analysis of gluten-free granola

This study developed a gluten-free granola and evaluated it during storage with the application of multivariate and regression analysis of the sensory and instrumental parameters. The physicochemical, sensory, and nutritional characteristics of a product containing quinoa, amaranth and linseed were evaluated. The crude protein and lipid contents ranged from 97.49 and 122.72 g kg-1 of food, respectively. The polyunsaturated/saturated, and n-6:n-3 fatty acid ratios ranged from 2.82 and 2.59:1, respectively. Granola had the best alpha-linolenic acid content, nutritional indices in the lipid fraction, and mineral content. There were good hygienic and sanitary conditions during storage; probably due to the low water activity of the formulation, which contributed to inhibit microbial growth. The sensory attributes ranged from 'like very much' to 'like slightly', and the regression models were highly fitted and correlated during the storage period. A reduction in the sensory attribute levels and in the product physical stabilisation was verified by principal component analysis. The use of the affective test acceptance and instrumental analysis combined with statistical methods allowed us to obtain promising results about the characteristics of gluten-free granola.

Multivariate study of Nile tilapia byproducts enriched with omega-3 and dried with different methods

Abstract The present work aimed at studying the effect of different drying methods applied to tilapia byproducts (heads, viscera and carcasses) fed with flaxseed, verifying the contents of omega-3 fatty acids. Two diets were given to the tilapia: a control and a flaxseed formulation, over the course of 60 days. After this period, they were slaughtered and their byproducts (heads, viscera and carcasses) were collected. These fish parts were analyzed in natura, lyophilized and oven dried. Byproducts from tilapia fed with flaxseed presented docosapentaenoic, eicopentaenoic and docosahexanoic fatty acids as a result of the enzymatic metabolism of the fish. The byproducts from the oven drying process had lower levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids. In the multivariate analysis, the byproducts from fish fed with flaxseed had a greater composition of fatty acids. The addition of flaxseed in fish diets, as well as the utilization of their byproducts, may become a good business strategy. Additionally, the byproducts may be dried to facilitate transport and storage.

Press forming of paperboard – advancement of converting tools and process control

Press forming is nowadays one of the most common industrial methods in use for producing deeper trays from paperboard. Demands for material properties like recyclability and sustainability have increased also in the packaging industry, but there are still limitations related to the formability of paperboard. A majority of recent studies have focused on material development, but the potential of the package manufacturing process can also be improved by the development of tooling and process control. In this study, advanced converting tools (die cutting tools and the press forming mould) are created for production scale paperboard tray manufacturing. Also monitoring methods that enable the production of paperboard trays with enhanced quality, and can be utilized in process control are developed. The principles for tray blank preparation, including creasing pattern and die cutting tool design are introduced. The mould heating arrangement and determination of mould clearance are investigated to improve the quality of the press formed trays. The effect of the spring back of the tray walls on the tray dimensions can be managed by adjusting the heat-related process parameters and estimating it at the mould design stage. This enables production speed optimization as the process parameters can be adjusted more freely. Real-time monitoring of pressing force by using multiple force sensors embedded in the mould structure can be utilized in the evaluation of material characteristics on a modified production machinery. Comprehensive process control can be achieved with a combination of measurement of the outer dimensions of the trays and pressing force monitoring. The control method enables detection of defects and tracking changes in the material properties. The optimized converting tools provide a basis for effective operation of the control system.

Enhancement of ultrafiltration process by pretreatment in recovery of hemicelluloses from wood extracts

Hemicelluloses are potential raw material for several items produced in future wood-based biorefineries. One possible method for recovering hemicelluloses from wood extracts is ultrafiltration (UF). However, low filtration capacities and severe fouling restrict the use of tight UF membranes in the treatment of wood extracts. The lack of suitable commercial membranes creates a need for pretreatment which would decrease fouling and increase the filtration capacity. This thesis focuses on the evaluation of the possibility to improve the filtration capacity and decrease fouling with the pretreatment of wood extracts. Methods which remove harmful compounds and methods which degrade them are studied, as well as combinations of the methods. The tested pretreatments have an influence on both the concentration of different compounds and the molecular mass distribution of the compounds in the extract. This study revealed that in addition to which kind of compounds were removed, also the change in molecular size distribution affected the filtration capacity significantly. It was shown that the most harmful compounds for the filtration capacity of the hydrophobic 5 kDa membrane were the ones capable of permeating the membrane and fouling also the inner membrane structure. Naturally, the size of the most harmful compounds depends on the used UF membrane and is thus case-specific. However, in the choice of the pretreatment method, the focus should be on the removal of harmful compound sizes rather than merely on the total amount of removed foulants. The results proved that filtration capacity can be increased with both adsorptive and oxidative pretreatments even by hundreds of per cents. For instance, the use of XAD7 and XAD16 adsorbents increased the average flux in the UF of a birch extract from nearly zero to 107 kg/(m2h) and 175 kg/(m2h), respectively. In the treatment of a spruce extract, oxidation by pulsed corona discharge (PCD) increased the flux in UF from 46 kg/(m2h) to 158 kg/(m2h). Moreover, when a birch extract batch was treated with laccase enzyme, the flux in UF increased from 15 kg/(m2h) to 36 kg/(m2h). However, fouling was decreased only by adsorptive pretreatment while oxidative methods had a negligible or even negative impact on it. This demonstrates that filtration capacity and fouling are affected by different compounds and mechanisms. The results of this thesis show that filtration capacity can be improved and fouling decreased through appropriate pretreatment. However, the choice of the best possible pretreatment is case-specific and depends on the wood extract and the membrane used. Finding the best option requires information on the extract content and membrane characteristics as well as on the filtration performance of the membrane in the prevailing conditions and a multivariate approach. On the basis of this study, it can be roughly concluded that adsorptive pretreatment improves the filtration capacity and decreases fouling rather reliably, but it may lead to significant hemicellulose losses. Oxidation reduces the loss of valuable hemicelluloses and could improve the filtration capacity, but fouling challenges may remain. Combining oxidation with adsorptive pretreatment was not a solution for avoiding hemicellulose losses in the tested cases.

Development and Effect Analysis of the Asteri Consultative Auditing Process - Safety and Security Management in Educational Institutions

The Finnish legislation requires for a safe and secure learning environment. However, the comprehensive, risk based safety and security management (SSM) and the management commitment in the implementation and development of the SSM are not mentioned in the legislation. Multiple institutions, operators and researchers have studied and developed safety and security in educational institutions over the past decade. Typically the approach has been fragmented and without bringing up the importance of the comprehensive SSM. The development needs of the safety and security operations in universities have been studied. However, in universities of applied sciences (UASs) and in elementary schools (ESs), the performance level, strengths and weaknesses of the comprehensive SSM have not been studied. The objective of this study was to develop the comprehensive, risk based SSM of educational institutions by developing the new Asteri consultative auditing process and study its effects on auditees. Furthermore, the performance level in the comprehensive SSM in UASs and ESs were studied using Asteri and the TUTOR model developed by the Keski-Uusimaa Department for Rescue Services. In addition, strengths, development needs and differences were identified. In total, 76 educational institutions were audited between the years 2011 and 2014. The study is based on logical empiricism, and an observational applied research design was used. Auditing, observation and an electronic survey were used for data collection. Statistical analysis was used to analyze the collected information. In addition, thematic analysis was used to analyze the development areas of the organizations mentioned by the respondents in the survey. As one of the main contributions, this research presents the new Asteri consultative auditing process. Organizations with low performance levels on the audited subject benefit the most from the Asteri consultative auditing process. Asteri may be usable in many different types of audits, not only in SSM audits. As a new result, this study provides new knowledge on attitudes related to auditing. According to the research findings, auditing may generate negative attitudes and the auditor should take them into account when planning and preparing for audits. Negative attitudes can be compensated by producing added value, objectivity and positivity for the audit and, thus, improve the positive effects of auditing on knowledge and skills. Moreover, as the results of this study shows, auditing safety and security issues do not increase feelings of insecurity, but rather increase feelings of safety and security when using the new Asteri consultative auditing process with the TUTOR model. The results showed that the SSM in the audited UASs was statistically significantly more advanced than that in the audited ESs. However, there is still room for improvement in the ESs and the UASs as the approach to the SSM was fragmented. It can be assumed that the majority of Finnish UASs and ESs do not likely meet the basic level of the comprehensive, risk based the SSM.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Industry specific lifecycle services for process critical motors

This Master’s Thesis examines industrial service business and studies how Global Technical Support Center Finland, part of ABB Oy, can develop its lifecycle services based on availability related customer needs. Focus is in three most business critical industry segments OGP (Oil, Gas and Petrochemical), Power and Metals. The research was conducted as a qualitative case study, including literature review and empirical part. The literature review explores industrial service business, product lifecycle services and related customer needs, product effectiveness and maintenance. This study contains also characteristics of constructive research. Primary material was gathered through internal and external interviews. Both theme and semi-structured interviews were performed. This research has shown that customers have different needs depending of the industry segment where they operate. Most remarkable differences are related to maintenance schedules. The main outcomes of the study are the industry specific lifecycle service models that combine company recommendations with customer specific needs. Other development needs were related to proactivity, condition based monitoring, information sharing and lifecycle estimations.

Monitoring Directed Energy Deposition Processes in Additive Manufacturing

The purpose of this study is to find out how laser based Directed Energy Deposition processes can benefit from different types of monitoring. DED is a type of additive manufacturing process, where parts are manufactured in layers by using metallic powder or metallic wire. DED processes can be used to manufacture parts that are not possible to manufacture with conventional manufacturing processes, when adding new geometries to existing parts or when wanting to minimize the scrap material that would result from machining the part. The aim of this study is to find out why laser based DED-processes are monitored, how they are monitored and what devices are used for monitoring. This study has been done in the form of a literature review. During the manufacturing process, the DED-process is highly sensitive to different disturbances such as fluctuations in laser absorption, powder feed rate, temperature, humidity or the reflectivity of the melt pool. These fluctuations can cause fluctuations in the size of the melt pool or its temperature. The variations in the size of the melt pool have an effect on the thickness of individual layers, which have a direct impact on the final surface quality and dimensional accuracy of the parts. By collecting data from these fluctuations and adjusting the laser power in real-time, the size of the melt pool and its temperature can be kept within a specified range that leads to significant improvements in the manufacturing quality. The main areas of monitoring can be divided into the monitoring of the powder feed rate, the temperature of the melt pool, the height of the melt pool and the geometry of the melt pool. Monitoring the powder feed rate is important when depositing different material compositions. Monitoring the temperature of the melt pool can give information about the microstructure and mechanical properties of the part. Monitoring the height and the geometry of the melt pool is an important factor in achieving the desired dimensional accuracy of the part. By combining multiple different monitoring devices, the amount of fluctuations that can be controlled will be increased. In addition, by combining additive manufacturing with machining, the benefits of both processes could be utilized.

Autonomic and electrocortical indices of performance monitoring and source memory discrimination in older and younger adults

Reduced capacity for executive cognitive function and for the autonomic control of cardiac responsivity are both concomitants of the aging process. These may be linked through their mutual dependence on medial prefrontal function, but the specifics ofthat linkage have not been well explored. Executive functions associated with medial prefrontal cortex involve various aspects ofperformance monitoring, whereas centrally mediated autonomic functions can be observed as heart rate variability (HRV), i.e., variability in the length of intervals between heart beats. The focus for this thesis was to examine the degree to which the capacity for phasic autonomic adjustments to heart rate relates to performance monitoring in younger and older adults, using measures of electrocortical and autonomic activity. Behavioural performance and attention allocation during two age-sensitive tasks could be predicted by various aspects of autonomic control. For young adults, greater influence of the parasympathetic system on HRV was beneficial for learning unfamiliar maze paths; for older adults, greater sympathetic influence was detrimental to these functions. Further, these relationships were primarily evoked when the task required the construction and use of internalized representations of mazes rather than passive responses to feedback. When memory for source was required, older adults made three times as many source errors as young adults. However, greater parasympathetic influence on HRV in the older group was conducive to avoiding source errors and to reduced electrocortical responses to irrelevant information. Higher sympathetic predominance, in contrast, was associated with higher rates of source error and greater electrocortical responses tq non-target information in both groups. These relations were not seen for 11 errors associated with a speeded perceptual task, irrespective of its difficulty level. Overall, autonomic modulation of cardiac activity was associated with higher levels of performance monitoring, but differentially across tasks and age groups. With respect to age, those older adults who had maintained higher levels of autonomic cardiac regulation appeared to have also maintained higher levels of executive control over task performance.

Thinking skills in the language arts : an application of cognitive schema theory to the narrative writing process /

A cognitively based instructional program for narrative writing was developed. The effects of using cognitively based schematic planning organizers at the pre-writing stage were evaluated using subjects from the Primary, Junior and Intermediate divisions. Results indicate that the use of organizers based on problem solving significantly improved the organization and the overall quality of narrative writing for students in grades 3, 6 and 7. The magnitude of the improvement of the treatment group over the control group performance in Organization ranged from 10.7% to 22.9%. Statistical and observational data indicate many implications for further research into the cognitive basis for writing and reading; for the improvement and evaluation of school writing programs; for the design of school curricula; and for the inservice education for teachers of writing.

A social-cognitive model of monitoring and its relationship to behaviour in a naturalistic observation : development and individual differences

years 8 months) and 24 older (M == 7 years 4 months) children. A Monitoring Process Model (MPM) was developed and tested in order to ascertain at which component process ofthe MPM age differences would emerge. The MPM had four components: (1) assessment; (2) evaluation; (3) planning; and (4) behavioural control. The MPM was assessed directly using a referential communication task in which the children were asked to make a series of five Lego buildings (a baseline condition and one building for each MPM component). Children listened to instructions from one experimenter while a second experimenter in the room (a confederate) intetjected varying levels ofverbal feedback in order to assist the children and control the component ofthe MPM. This design allowed us to determine at which "stage" ofprocessing children would most likely have difficulty monitoring themselves in this social-cognitive task. Developmental differences were obselVed for the evaluation, planning and behavioural control components suggesting that older children were able to be more successful with the more explicit metacomponents. Interestingly, however, there was no age difference in terms ofLego task success in the baseline condition suggesting that without the intelVention ofthe confederate younger children monitored the task about as well as older children. This pattern ofresults indicates that the younger children were disrupted by the feedback rather than helped. On the other hand, the older children were able to incorporate the feedback offered by the confederate into a plan ofaction. Another aim ofthis study was to assess similar processing components to those investigated by the MPM Lego task in a more naturalistic observation. Together the use ofthe Lego Task ( a social cognitive task) and the naturalistic social interaction allowed for the appraisal of cross-domain continuities and discontinuities in monitoring behaviours. In this vein, analyses were undertaken in order to ascertain whether or not successful performance in the MPM Lego Task would predict cross-domain competence in the more naturalistic social interchange. Indeed, success in the two latter components ofthe MPM (planning and behavioural control) was related to overall competence in the naturalistic task. However, this cross-domain prediction was not evident for all levels ofthe naturalistic interchange suggesting that the nature ofthe feedback a child receives is an important determinant ofresponse competency. Individual difference measures reflecting the children's general cognitive capacity (Working Memory and Digit Span) and verbal ability (vocabulary) were also taken in an effort to account for more variance in the prediction oftask success. However, these individual difference measures did not serve to enhance the prediction oftask performance in either the Lego Task or the naturalistic task. Similarly, parental responses to questionnaires pertaining to their child's temperament and social experience also failed to increase prediction oftask performance. On-line measures ofthe children's engagement, positive affect and anxiety also failed to predict competence ratings.

A domain-general perspective on medial frontal brain activity during performance monitoring

Activity of the medial frontal cortex (MFC) has been implicated in attention regulation and performance monitoring. The MFC is thought to generate several event-related potential (ERPs) components, known as medial frontal negativities (MFNs), that are elicited when a behavioural response becomes difficult to control (e.g., following an error or shifting from a frequently executed response). The functional significance of MFNs has traditionally been interpreted in the context of the paradigm used to elicit a specific response, such as errors. In a series of studies, we consider the functional similarity of multiple MFC brain responses by designing novel performance monitoring tasks and exploiting advanced methods for electroencephalography (EEG) signal processing and robust estimation statistics for hypothesis testing. In study 1, we designed a response cueing task and used Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to show that the latent factors describing a MFN to stimuli that cued the potential need to inhibit a response on upcoming trials also accounted for medial frontal brain responses that occurred when individuals made a mistake or inhibited an incorrect response. It was also found that increases in theta occurred to each of these task events, and that the effects were evident at the group level and in single cases. In study 2, we replicated our method of classifying MFC activity to cues in our response task and showed again, using additional tasks, that error commission, response inhibition, and, to a lesser extent, the processing of performance feedback all elicited similar changes across MFNs and theta power. In the final study, we converted our response cueing paradigm into a saccade cueing task in order to examine the oscillatory dynamics of response preparation. We found that, compared to easy pro-saccades, successfully preparing a difficult anti-saccadic response was characterized by an increase in MFC theta and the suppression of posterior alpha power prior to executing the eye movement. These findings align with a large body of literature on performance monitoring and ERPs, and indicate that MFNs, along with their signature in theta power, reflects the general process of controlling attention and adapting behaviour without the need to induce error commission, the inhibition of responses, or the presentation of negative feedback.

Simulation-Based Finite and Large Sample Tests in Multivariate Regressions.

In the context of multivariate linear regression (MLR) models, it is well known that commonly employed asymptotic test criteria are seriously biased towards overrejection. In this paper, we propose a general method for constructing exact tests of possibly nonlinear hypotheses on the coefficients of MLR systems. For the case of uniform linear hypotheses, we present exact distributional invariance results concerning several standard test criteria. These include Wilks' likelihood ratio (LR) criterion as well as trace and maximum root criteria. The normality assumption is not necessary for most of the results to hold. Implications for inference are two-fold. First, invariance to nuisance parameters entails that the technique of Monte Carlo tests can be applied on all these statistics to obtain exact tests of uniform linear hypotheses. Second, the invariance property of the latter statistic is exploited to derive general nuisance-parameter-free bounds on the distribution of the LR statistic for arbitrary hypotheses. Even though it may be difficult to compute these bounds analytically, they can easily be simulated, hence yielding exact bounds Monte Carlo tests. Illustrative simulation experiments show that the bounds are sufficiently tight to provide conclusive results with a high probability. Our findings illustrate the value of the bounds as a tool to be used in conjunction with more traditional simulation-based test methods (e.g., the parametric bootstrap) which may be applied when the bounds are not conclusive.

Markovian Processes, Two-Sided Autoregressions and Finite-Sample Inference for Stationary and Nonstationary Autoregressive Processes.

In this paper, we develop finite-sample inference procedures for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive (AR) models. The method is based on special properties of Markov processes and a split-sample technique. The results on Markovian processes (intercalary independence and truncation) only require the existence of conditional densities. They are proved for possibly nonstationary and/or non-Gaussian multivariate Markov processes. In the context of a linear regression model with AR(1) errors, we show how these results can be used to simplify the distributional properties of the model by conditioning a subset of the data on the remaining observations. This transformation leads to a new model which has the form of a two-sided autoregression to which standard classical linear regression inference techniques can be applied. We show how to derive tests and confidence sets for the mean and/or autoregressive parameters of the model. We also develop a test on the order of an autoregression. We show that a combination of subsample-based inferences can improve the performance of the procedure. An application to U.S. domestic investment data illustrates the method.