A Multi-state model for the analysis of functional decline and mortality of frail elderly patients

L’objectiu d’aquest estudi, que correspon a un projecte de recerca sobre la pèrdua funcional i la mortalitat de persones grans fràgils, és construir un procés de supervivència predictiu que tingui en compte l’evolució funcional i nutricional dels pacients al llarg del temps. En aquest estudi ens enfrontem a l’anàlisi de dades de supervivència i mesures repetides però els mètodes estadístics habituals per al tractament conjunt d’aquest tipus de dades no són apropiats en aquest cas. Com a alternativa utilitzem els models de supervivència multi-estats per avaluar l’associació entre mortalitat i recuperació, o no, dels nivells funcionals i nutricionals considerats normals. Després d’estimar el model i d’identificar els factors pronòstics de mortalitat és possible obtenir un procés predictiu que permet fer prediccions de la supervivència dels pacients en funció de la seva història concreta fins a un determinat moment. Això permet realitzar un pronòstic més precís de cada grup de pacients, la qual cosa pot ser molt útil per als professionals sanitaris a l’hora de prendre decisions clíniques.

Energy policies for rural electrification: a social multi-criteria evaluation approach

In this article, a real-world case- study is presented with two general objectives: to give a clear and simple illustrative example of application of social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) in the field of rural renewable energy policies, and to help in understanding to what extent and under which circumstances solar energy is suitable for electrifying isolated farmhouses. In this sense, this study might offer public decision- makers some insight on the conditions that favour the diffusion of renewable energy, in order to help them to design more effective energy policies for rural communities.

Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE)

The main argument developed here is the proposal of the concept of “Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation” (SMCE) as a possible useful framework for the application of social choice to the difficult policy problems of our Millennium, where, as stated by Funtowicz and Ravetz, “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent”. This paper starts from the following main questions: 1. Why “Social” Multi-criteria Evaluation? 2. How such an approach should be developed? The foundations of SMCE are set up by referring to concepts coming from complex system theory and philosophy, such as reflexive complexity, post-normal science and incommensurability. To give some operational guidelines on the application of SMCE basic questions to be answered are: 1. How is it possible to deal with technical incommensurability? 2. How can we deal with the issue of social incommensurability? To answer these questions, by using theoretical considerations and lessons learned from realworld case studies, is the main objective of the present article.

Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MUSIASEM): an outline of rationale and theory

This paper presents an outline of rationale and theory of the MuSIASEM scheme (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism). First, three points of the rationale behind our MuSIASEM scheme are discussed: (i) endosomatic and exosomatic metabolism in relation to Georgescu-Roegen’s flow-fund scheme; (2) the bioeconomic analogy of hypercycle and dissipative parts in ecosystems; (3) the dramatic reallocation of human time and land use patterns in various sectors of modern economy. Next, a flow-fund representation of the MUSIASEM scheme on three levels (the whole national level, the paid work sectors level, and the agricultural sector level) is illustrated to look at the structure of the human economy in relation to two primary factors: (i) human time - a fund; and (ii) exosomatic energy - a flow. The three levels representation uses extensive and intensive variables simultaneously. Key conceptual tools of the MuSIASEM scheme - mosaic effects and impredicative loop analysis - are explained using the three level flow-fund representation. Finally, we claim that the MuSIASEM scheme can be seen as a multi-purpose grammar useful to deal with sustainability issues.

Multi-product firms and product variety

The goal of this paper is to study the role of multi-product firms in the market provision of product variety. The analysis is conducted using the spokes model of non-localized competition proposed by Chen and Riordan (2007). Firstly, we show that multi-product firms are at a competitive disadvantage vis-a-vis single-product firms and can only emerge if economies of scope are sufficiently strong. Secondly, under duopoly product variety may be higher or lower with respect to both the first best and the monopolistically competitive equilibrium. However, within a relevant range of parameter values duopolists drastically restrict their product range in order to relax price competition, and as a result product variety is far below the efficient level.

Biological materials in colorectal surgery: current applications and potential for the future.

Biological materials are increasingly used in abdominal surgery for ventral, pelvic and perineal reconstructions, especially in contaminated fields. Future applications are multi-fold and include prevention and one-step closure of infected areas. This includes prevention of abdominal, parastomal and pelvic hernia, but could also include prevention of separation of multiple anastomoses, suture- or staple-lines. Further indications could be a containment of infected and/or inflammatory areas and protection of vital implants such as vascular grafts. Reinforcement patches of high-risk anastomoses or unresectable perforation sites are possibilities at least. Current applications are based mostly on case series and better data is urgently needed. Clinical benefits need to be assessed in prospective studies to provide reliable proof of efficacy with a sufficient follow-up. Only superior results compared with standard treatment will justify the higher costs of these materials. To date, the use of biological materials is not standard and applications should be limited to case-by-case decision.

Multi-phase post-mortem CT angiography: development of a standardized protocol.

The objective of this work was to develop an easily applicable technique and a standardized protocol for high-quality post-mortem angiography. This protocol should (1) increase the radiological interpretation by decreasing artifacts due to the perfusion and by reaching a complete filling of the vascular system and (2) ease and standardize the execution of the examination. To this aim, 45 human corpses were investigated by post-mortem computed tomography (CT) angiography using different perfusion protocols, a modified heart-lung machine and a new contrast agent mixture, specifically developed for post-mortem investigations. The quality of the CT angiographies was evaluated radiologically by observing the filling of the vascular system and assessing the interpretability of the resulting images and by comparing radiological diagnoses to conventional autopsy conclusions. Post-mortem angiography yielded satisfactory results provided that the volumes of the injected contrast agent mixture were high enough to completely fill the vascular system. In order to avoid artifacts due to the post-mortem perfusion, a minimum of three angiographic phases and one native scan had to be performed. These findings were taken into account to develop a protocol for quality post-mortem CT angiography that minimizes the risk of radiological misinterpretation. The proposed protocol is easy applicable in a standardized way and yields high-quality radiologically interpretable visualization of the vascular system in post-mortem investigations.

Primary isolated aortic valve surgery in octogenarians.

We reviewed our surgery registry, to identify predictive risk factors for operative results, and to analyse the long-term survival outcome in octogenarians operated for primary isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). A total of 124 consecutive octogenarians underwent open AVR from January 1990 to December 2005. Combined procedures and redo surgery were excluded. Selected variables were studied as risk factors for hospital mortality and early neurological events. A follow-up (FU; mean FU time: 77 months) was obtained (90% complete), and Kaplan-Meier plots were used to determine survival rates. The mean age was 82+/-2.2 (range: 80-90 years; 63% females). Of the group, four patients (3%) required urgent procedures, 10 (8%) had a previous myocardial infarction, six (5%) had a previous coronary angioplasty and stenting, 13 patients (10%) suffered from angina and 59 (48%) were in the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III-IV. We identified 114 (92%) degenerative stenosis, six (5%) post-rheumatic stenosis and four (3%) active endocarditis. The predicted mortality calculated by logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was 12.6+/-5.7%, and the observed hospital mortality was 5.6%. Causes of death included severe cardiac failure (four patients), multi-organ failure (two) and sepsis (one). Complications were transitory neurological events in three patients (2%), short-term haemodialysis in three (2%), atrial fibrillation in 60 (48%) and six patients were re-operated for bleeding. Atrio-ventricular block, myocardial infarction or permanent stroke was not detected. The age at surgery and the postoperative renal failure were predictors for hospital mortality (p value <0.05), whereas we did not find predictors for neurological events. The mean FU time was 77 months (6.5 years) and the mean age of surviving patients was 87+/-4 years (81-95 years). The actuarial survival estimates at 5 and 10 years were 88% and 50%, respectively. Our experience shows good short-term results after primary isolated standard AVR in patients more than 80 years of age. The FU suggests that aortic valve surgery in octogenarians guarantees satisfactory long-term survival rates and a good quality of life, free from cardiac re-operations. In the era of catheter-based aortic valve implantation, open-heart surgery for AVR remains the standard of care for healthy octogenarians.

The Measurement of social polarization in a multi-group context

Polarization indices presented up to now have only focused their attention on the distribution of income/wealth. However, in many circumstances income is not the only relevant dimension that might be the cause of social conflict, so it is very important to have a social polarization index able to cope with alternative dimensions. In this paper we present an axiomatic characterization of one of such indices: it has been obtained as an extension of the (income) polarization measure introduced in Duclos, Esteban and Ray (2004) to a wider domain. It turns out that the axiomatic structure introduced in that paper alone is not appropriate to obtain a fully satisfactory characterization of our measure, so additional axioms are proposed. As a byproduct, we present an alternative axiomatization of the aforementioned income polarization measure.

Octopus Standard Automated Perimetry, Pulsar Perimetry, Moorfields Motion Displacement Test and Heidelberg Retinal Tomography in Glaucoma Detection - A Comparison of Diagnostic Accuracy

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy of 4 clinical instruments in the detection of glaucomatous damage. Methods: 102 eyes of 55 test subjects (Age mean = 66.5yrs, range = [39; 89]) underwent Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRTIII), (disc area<2.43); and standard automated perimetry (SAP) using Octopus (Dynamic); Pulsar (TOP); and Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) (ESTA strategy). Eyes were separated into three groups 1) Healthy (H): IOP<21mmHg and healthy discs (clinical examination), 39 subjects, 78 eyes; 2) Glaucoma suspect (GS): Suspicious discs (clinical examination), 12 subjects, 15 eyes; 3) Glaucoma (G): progressive structural or functional loss, 14 subjects, 20 eyes. Clinical diagnostic precision was examined using the cut-off associated with the p<5% normative limit of MD (Octopus/Pulsar), PTD (MDT) and MRA (HRT) analysis. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were calculated for each instrument. Results: See table Conclusions: Despite the advantage of defining glaucoma suspects using clinical optic disc examination, the HRT did not yield significantly higher accuracy than functional measures. HRT, MDT and Octopus SAP yielded higher accuracy than Pulsar perimetry, although results did not reach statistical significance. Further studies are required to investigate the structure-function correlations between these instruments.

Multi-scale support vector algorithms for hot spot detection and modelling

The algorithmic approach to data modelling has developed rapidly these last years, in particular methods based on data mining and machine learning have been used in a growing number of applications. These methods follow a data-driven methodology, aiming at providing the best possible generalization and predictive abilities instead of concentrating on the properties of the data model. One of the most successful groups of such methods is known as Support Vector algorithms. Following the fruitful developments in applying Support Vector algorithms to spatial data, this paper introduces a new extension of the traditional support vector regression (SVR) algorithm. This extension allows for the simultaneous modelling of environmental data at several spatial scales. The joint influence of environmental processes presenting different patterns at different scales is here learned automatically from data, providing the optimum mixture of short and large-scale models. The method is adaptive to the spatial scale of the data. With this advantage, it can provide efficient means to model local anomalies that may typically arise in situations at an early phase of an environmental emergency. However, the proposed approach still requires some prior knowledge on the possible existence of such short-scale patterns. This is a possible limitation of the method for its implementation in early warning systems. The purpose of this paper is to present the multi-scale SVR model and to illustrate its use with an application to the mapping of Cs137 activity given the measurements taken in the region of Briansk following the Chernobyl accident.

Radiologists' vs. surgeons' reading performance in non traumatic acute abdomen CTs : P32

Purpose: Emergency room reading performances have been a point of interest in recent studies comparing radiologists to other physician groups. Our objective was to evaluate and compare the reading performances of radiologists and surgeons in an emergency room setting of non-traumatic abdominal CTs. Methods and materials: A total of ten readers representing four groups participated in this study: three senior radiologists and visceral surgeons, respectively, and two junior radiologists and surgeons, respectively. Each observer blindedly evaluated a total of 150 multi-slice acute abdominal CTs. CTs were chosen representing established proportions of acute abdomen pathologies in a Level I trauma centre from 2003 to 2005. Each answer was interpretated as right or wrong regarding pathology location, diagnosis and need for operation. Gold standard was the intraoperative result, and the clinical patient follow-up for non-operated patients. Significance was assumed at a p <.05 level. Results: Senior radiologists had a mean score of 2.38 ± 1.14, junior radiologists a score of 2.34 ± 1.14, whereas senior surgeons scored 2.07 ± 1.30 and junior surgeons 1.62 ± 1.42. No significant difference was found between the two radiologist groups, but results were significantly better for senior surgeons as compared to junior surgeons and better for the two radiologist groups as compared to each of the surgeon groups (all p <.05). Conclusion: Abdominal CT reading in an acute abdomen setting should continue to rely on an evaluation by a radiologist, whether senior or junior. Satisfying reading results can be achieved by senior visceral surgeons, but junior surgeons need more experience for a good reading performance.

Multi-agent contracting with countervailing incentives and limited liability

We consider a principal who deals with a privately informed agent protected by limited liability in a correlated information setting. The agent's technology is such that the fixed cost declines with the marginal cost (the type), so that countervailing incentives may arise. We show that, with high liability, the first-best outcome can be effected for any type if (1) the fixed cost is non-concave in type, under the contract that yields the smallest feasible loss to the agent; (2) the fixed cost is not very concave in type, under the contract that yields the maximum sustainable loss to the agent. We further show that, with low liability, the first-best outcome is still implemented for a non-degenerate range of types if the fixed cost is less concave in type than some given threshold, which tightens as the liability reduces. The optimal contract entails pooling otherwise.

The Change Questionnaire predicts change in hazardous tobacco and alcohol use.

INTRODUCTION: Assessing motivation for change is deemed an important step in the treatment process that allows further refinement of the intervention in motivational interviewing (MI) and brief MI (BMI) adaptations. During MI (and BMI) sessions, motivation for change is expressed by the client as "change talk", i.e. all statements inclined toward or away from change. We tested the predictive validity of the Change Questionnaire, a 12-item instrument assessing motivation to change, on hazardous tobacco and alcohol use. METHODS: As part of the baseline measurements for a randomized controlled trial on multi-substance BMI at the Lausanne recruitment center (army conscription is mandatory in Switzerland for males at age 20, and thus provides a unique opportunity to address a non-clinical and largely representative sample of young men), 213 participants completed the questionnaire on tobacco and 95 on alcohol and were followed-up six months later. The overall Change Questionnaire score and its six subscales (Desire, Ability, Reasons, Need, Commitment, and Taking steps) were used as predictors of hazardous tobacco use (defined as daily smoking) and hazardous alcohol use (defined as more than one occasion with six standard drinks or more per month, and/or more than 21 standard drinks per week) in bivariate logistic regression models at follow-up. RESULTS: Higher overall Change scores were significant predictors of decreased risk for hazardous tobacco (odds ratio [OR] = 0.83, p = 0.046) and alcohol (OR = 0.76, p = 0.03) use. Several sub-dimensions were associated with the outcomes in bivariate analyses. Using a principal components analysis to reduce the number of predictors for multivariate models, we obtained two components. 'Ability to change' was strongly related to change in hazardous tobacco use (OR = 0.54, p < 0.001), the second we interpreted as 'Other change language dimensions' and which was significantly related to change in hazardous alcohol use (OR = 0.81, p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The present findings lend initial support for the predictive validity of the Change Questionnaire on hazardous tobacco and alcohol use, making it an interesting and potentially useful tool for assessing motivation to change among young males.