Concentrating solar power + desalination plants (CSP+D): models and performance analysis

Tese submetida à Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Superior Técnico e aprovada em provas públicas para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Sistemas Sustentáveis de Energia.

A Generalized Methodology to Characterize Composite Materials for Pyrolysis Models

The predictive capabilities of computational fire models have improved in recent years such that models have become an integral part of many research efforts. Models improve the understanding of the fire risk of materials and may decrease the number of expensive experiments required to assess the fire hazard of a specific material or designed space. A critical component of a predictive fire model is the pyrolysis sub-model that provides a mathematical representation of the rate of gaseous fuel production from condensed phase fuels given a heat flux incident to the material surface. The modern, comprehensive pyrolysis sub-models that are common today require the definition of many model parameters to accurately represent the physical description of materials that are ubiquitous in the built environment. Coupled with the increase in the number of parameters required to accurately represent the pyrolysis of materials is the increasing prevalence in the built environment of engineered composite materials that have never been measured or modeled. The motivation behind this project is to develop a systematic, generalized methodology to determine the requisite parameters to generate pyrolysis models with predictive capabilities for layered composite materials that are common in industrial and commercial applications. This methodology has been applied to four common composites in this work that exhibit a range of material structures and component materials. The methodology utilizes a multi-scale experimental approach in which each test is designed to isolate and determine a specific subset of the parameters required to define a material in the model. Data collected in simultaneous thermogravimetry and differential scanning calorimetry experiments were analyzed to determine the reaction kinetics, thermodynamic properties, and energetics of decomposition for each component of the composite. Data collected in microscale combustion calorimetry experiments were analyzed to determine the heats of complete combustion of the volatiles produced in each reaction. Inverse analyses were conducted on sample temperature data collected in bench-scale tests to determine the thermal transport parameters of each component through degradation. Simulations of quasi-one-dimensional bench-scale gasification tests generated from the resultant models using the ThermaKin modeling environment were compared to experimental data to independently validate the models.

Analysis and modelling of immune cell behaviour in lymph nodes based on multi-photon imaging

This thesis presents quantitative studies of T cell and dendritic cell (DC) behaviour in mouse lymph nodes (LNs) in the naive state and following immunisation. These processes are of importance and interest in basic immunology, and better understanding could improve both diagnostic capacity and therapeutic manipulations, potentially helping in producing more effective vaccines or developing treatments for autoimmune diseases. The problem is also interesting conceptually as it is relevant to other fields where 3D movement of objects is tracked with a discrete scanning interval. A general immunology introduction is presented in chapter 1. In chapter 2, I apply quantitative methods to multi-photon imaging data to measure how T cells and DCs are spatially arranged in LNs. This has been previously studied to describe differences between the naive and immunised state and as an indicator of the magnitude of the immune response in LNs, but previous analyses have been generally descriptive. The quantitative analysis shows that some of the previous conclusions may have been premature. In chapter 3, I use Bayesian state-space models to test some hypotheses about the mode of T cell search for DCs. A two-state mode of movement where T cells can be classified as either interacting to a DC or freely migrating is supported over a model where T cells would home in on DCs at distance through for example the action of chemokines. In chapter 4, I study whether T cell migration is linked to the geometric structure of the fibroblast reticular network (FRC). I find support for the hypothesis that the movement is constrained to the fibroblast reticular cell (FRC) network over an alternative 'random walk with persistence time' model where cells would move randomly, with a short-term persistence driven by a hypothetical T cell intrinsic 'clock'. I also present unexpected results on the FRC network geometry. Finally, a quantitative method is presented for addressing some measurement biases inherent to multi-photon imaging. In all three chapters, novel findings are made, and the methods developed have the potential for further use to address important problems in the field. In chapter 5, I present a summary and synthesis of results from chapters 3-4 and a more speculative discussion of these results and potential future directions.

Analysis of the moisture effect on the mechanical behaviour of an adhesively bonded joint under proportional multi-axial loads

The objective of the study is to identify the 3D behaviour of an adhesive in an assembly, and to take into account the effect of ageing in a marine environment. To that end, three different tests were employed. Gravimetric analyses were used to determine the water diffusion kinetics in the adhesive. Bulk tensile tests were performed to highlight the effects of humid ageing on the adhesive behaviour. Modified Arcan tests were performed for several ageing times to obtain the experimental database which was necessary to identify constitutive models. A Mahnken-Schlimmer type model was determined for the unaged state according to a procedure developed in a previous study. This identification used inverse techniques. It was based on the unaged modified Arcan results and on a coupling between an optimisation routine and finite-element analysis. Then, a global inverse identification procedure was developed. Its aim was to relate the unaged parameters to the moisture concentration and overcome the difficulties usually associated with ageing of bonded assemblies in a humid environment: a non-uniformity of the stress state and a gradient of mechanical properties in the adhesive. This procedure was similar to the one used in the first part but needed modified Arcan results for several ageing times. It also required an initial assumption for the evolution of the Mahnken-Schlimmer parameters with the moisture concentration.

Sector público y déficit fiscal

Este documento tiene como objetivo presentar una introducción a la estructura de las cuentas fiscales colombianas. Para tal fin se presenta una clasificación del Sector Público No Financiero y se describen sus principales cuentas de gastos y de ingresos. Así mismo, para el caso colombiano se presenta una breve descripción de la evolución de estas cuentas y del balance fiscal para las últimas décadas. Este documento está dirigido a estudiantes de primeros semestre de economía y/o especializaciones que deseen entender la estructura del sector público y su contabilidad.

A rewarding experience? Exploring how crowdfunding is affecting music industry business models.

This paper provides an exploratory study of how rewards-based crowdfunding affects business model development for music industry artists, labels and live sector companies. The empirical methodology incorporated a qualitative, semi-structured, three-stage interview design with fifty seven senior executives from industry crowdfunding platforms and three stakeholder groups. The results and analysis cover new research ground and provide conceptual models to develop theoretical foundations for further research in this field. The findings indicate that the financial model benefits of crowdfunding for independent artists are dependent on fan base demographic variables relating to age group and genre due to sustained apprehension from younger audiences. Furthermore, major labels are now considering a more user-centric financial model as an innovation strategy, and the impact of crowdfunding on their marketing model may already be initiating its development in terms of creativity, strength and artist relations.

Assessment of a data-limited, multi-species shark fishery in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and south-east Queensland

The status of five species of commercially exploited sharks within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) and south-east Queensland was assessed using a data-limited approach. Annual harvest rate, U, estimated empirically from tagging between 2011 and 2013, was compared with an analytically-derived proxy for optimal equilibrium harvest rate, UMSY Lim. Median estimates of U for three principal retained species, Australian blacktip shark, Carcharhinus tilstoni, spot-tail shark, Carcharhinus sorrah, and spinner shark, Carcharhinus brevipinna, were 0.10, 0.06 and 0.07 year-1, respectively. Median U for two retained, non-target species, pigeye shark, Carcharhinus amboinensis and Australian sharpnose shark, Rhizoprionodon taylori, were 0.27 and 0.01 year-1, respectively. For all species except the Australian blacktip the median ratio of U/UMSY Lim was <1. The high vulnerability of this species to fishing combined with life history characteristics meant UMSY Lim was low (0.04-0.07 year-1) and that U/UMSY Lim was likely to be > 1. Harvest of the Australian blacktip shark above UMSY could place this species at a greater risk of localised depletion in parts of the GBRMP. Results of the study indicated that much higher catches, and presumably higher U, during the early 2000s were likely unsustainable. The unexpectedly high level of U on the pigeye shark indicated that output-based management controls may not have been effective in reducing harvest levels on all species, particularly those caught incidentally by other fishing sectors including the recreational sector. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.

Attitudes of Future Tourism Sector Employees Towards Organise Accessible Tourism

The aim of this paper is to show a theoretical approach to the evolution of concepts perceiving disability, taking into account the medical, social, and geographical models, as the basis for the development of principles concerning the organisation of accessible tourism for people with disabilities (PwD). The main research objective was to identify the current attitudes of future, potential employees in the tourism (tourism and recreation students at the time of the study) towards accessible tourism. The study was based on surveys performed in May 2013 at the Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań (UAM, Poland) and the State University in Irkutsk (ИГУ, Russia), a total sample of 216 people. The main section of the survey contained four questions regarding issues such as: optimal ways to organise tourism products for people with a disability; attitudes towards spending leisure time together with people with a disability; and specific requirements concerning the introduction of various types of improvements in tourism products aimed at people with a disability. In both cases, the results revealed that future tourism employees hold attitudes which are prevailingly open and positive towards the needs of tourists with disabilities. However, the hypothesis that the main factor influencing a reluctance to enter into contact with PwD is a lack of experience in this area, resulting in insufficient knowledge of what conditions the behaviour of PwD was also confirmed. This is a highly significant conclusion which should consider if mandatory educational programmes in the field of tourism and recreation studies are to be improved.

Multi-Agent Simulation and Management Practices

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. Agent-Based Simulation (ABS), one way of using intelligent agents, carries great potential for progressing our understanding of management practices and how they link to retail performance. We have developed simulation models based on research by a multi-disciplinary team of economists, work psychologists and computer scientists. We will discuss our experiences of implementing these concepts working with a well-known retail department store. There is no doubt that management practices are linked to the performance of an organisation (Reynolds et al., 2005; Wall & Wood, 2005). Best practices have been developed, but when it comes down to the actual application of these guidelines considerable ambiguity remains regarding their effectiveness within particular contexts (Siebers et al., forthcoming a). Most Operational Research (OR) methods can only be used as analysis tools once management practices have been implemented. Often they are not very useful for giving answers to speculative ‘what-if’ questions, particularly when one is interested in the development of the system over time rather than just the state of the system at a certain point in time. Simulation can be used to analyse the operation of dynamic and stochastic systems. ABS is particularly useful when complex interactions between system entities exist, such as autonomous decision making or negotiation. In an ABS model the researcher explicitly describes the decision process of simulated actors at the micro level. Structures emerge at the macro level as a result of the actions of the agents and their interactions with other agents and the environment. We will show how ABS experiments can deal with testing and optimising management practices such as training, empowerment or teamwork. Hence, questions such as “will staff setting their own break times improve performance?” can be investigated.

Introduction to Multi-Agent Simulation

When designing systems that are complex, dynamic and stochastic in nature, simulation is generally recognised as one of the best design support technologies, and a valuable aid in the strategic and tactical decision making process. A simulation model consists of a set of rules that define how a system changes over time, given its current state. Unlike analytical models, a simulation model is not solved but is run and the changes of system states can be observed at any point in time. This provides an insight into system dynamics rather than just predicting the output of a system based on specific inputs. Simulation is not a decision making tool but a decision support tool, allowing better informed decisions to be made. Due to the complexity of the real world, a simulation model can only be an approximation of the target system. The essence of the art of simulation modelling is abstraction and simplification. Only those characteristics that are important for the study and analysis of the target system should be included in the simulation model. The purpose of simulation is either to better understand the operation of a target system, or to make predictions about a target system’s performance. It can be viewed as an artificial white-room which allows one to gain insight but also to test new theories and practices without disrupting the daily routine of the focal organisation. What you can expect to gain from a simulation study is very well summarised by FIRMA (2000). His idea is that if the theory that has been framed about the target system holds, and if this theory has been adequately translated into a computer model this would allow you to answer some of the following questions: · Which kind of behaviour can be expected under arbitrarily given parameter combinations and initial conditions? · Which kind of behaviour will a given target system display in the future? · Which state will the target system reach in the future? The required accuracy of the simulation model very much depends on the type of question one is trying to answer. In order to be able to respond to the first question the simulation model needs to be an explanatory model. This requires less data accuracy. In comparison, the simulation model required to answer the latter two questions has to be predictive in nature and therefore needs highly accurate input data to achieve credible outputs. These predictions involve showing trends, rather than giving precise and absolute predictions of the target system performance. The numerical results of a simulation experiment on their own are most often not very useful and need to be rigorously analysed with statistical methods. These results then need to be considered in the context of the real system and interpreted in a qualitative way to make meaningful recommendations or compile best practice guidelines. One needs a good working knowledge about the behaviour of the real system to be able to fully exploit the understanding gained from simulation experiments. The goal of this chapter is to brace the newcomer to the topic of what we think is a valuable asset to the toolset of analysts and decision makers. We will give you a summary of information we have gathered from the literature and of the experiences that we have made first hand during the last five years, whilst obtaining a better understanding of this exciting technology. We hope that this will help you to avoid some pitfalls that we have unwittingly encountered. Section 2 is an introduction to the different types of simulation used in Operational Research and Management Science with a clear focus on agent-based simulation. In Section 3 we outline the theoretical background of multi-agent systems and their elements to prepare you for Section 4 where we discuss how to develop a multi-agent simulation model. Section 5 outlines a simple example of a multi-agent system. Section 6 provides a collection of resources for further studies and finally in Section 7 we will conclude the chapter with a short summary.

The third dimension: new developments in cell culture models for colorectal research

Cellular models are important tools in various research areas related to colorectal biology and associated diseases. Herein, we review the most widely used cell lines and the different techniques to grow them, either as cell monolayer, polarized two-dimensional epithelia on membrane filters, or as three-dimensional spheres in scaffoldfree or matrix-supported culture conditions. Moreover, recent developments, such as gut-on-chip devices or the ex vivo growth of biopsy-derived organoids, are also discussed. We provide an overview on the potential applications but also on the limitations for each of these techniques, while evaluating their contribution to provide more reliable cellular models for research, diagnostic testing, or pharmacological validation related to colon physiology and pathophysiology.

GGE biplot analysis of multi-environment yield trials of rice produced in a temperate climate

Low temperature is one of the main environmental constraints for rice ( Oryza sativa L.) grain production yield. It is known that multi-environment studies play a critical role in the sustainability of rice production across diverse environments. However, there are few studies based on multi-environment studies of rice in temperate climates. The aim was to study the performance of rice plants in cold environments. Four experimental lines and six cultivars were evaluated at three locations during three seasons. The grain yield data were analyzed with ANOVA, mixed models based on the best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs), and genotype plus Genotype × Environment interaction (GGE) biplot. High genotype contribution (> 25%) was observed in grain yield and the interaction between genotype and locations was not very important. Results also showed that ‘Quila 241319’ was the best experimental line with the highest grain yield (11.3 t ha-1) and grain yield stability across the environments; commercial cultivars were classified as medium grain yield genotypes.

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Facteurs de risque pour les maladies diarrhéiques chez les enfants à Dakar : une analyse multi-niveaux avec variables latentes

Au Sénégal, les maladies diarrhéiques constituent un fardeau important, qui pèse encore lourdement sur la santé des enfants. Ces maladies sont influencées par un large éventail de facteurs, appartenant à différents niveaux et sphères d'analyse. Cet article analyse ces facteurs de risque et leur rôle relatif dans les maladies diarrhéiques de l'enfant à Dakar. Ce faisant, elle illustre une nouvelle approche pour synthétiser le réseau de ces déterminants. Une analyse en classes latentes (LCA) est d’abord menée, puis les variables latentes ainsi construites sont utilisées comme variables explicatives dans une régression logistique sur trois niveaux. Les résultats confirment que les déterminants des diarrhées chez l'enfant appartiennent aux trois niveaux d'analyse et que les facteurs comportementaux et l'assainissement du quartier jouent un rôle prépondérant. Les résultats illustrent aussi l'utilité des LCA pour synthétiser plusieurs indicateurs, afin de créer une image causale intégrée, tout en utilisant des modèles statistiques parcimonieux.

Organisational justice and smoking: the Finnish Public Sector Study

Study Objective: To examine the extent to which justice of decision-making procedures and interpersonal relations is associated with smoking. Setting: Ten municipalities and 21 hospitals in Finland. Design and Participants: Cross-sectional data derived from the Finnish Public Sector Study were analysed with logistic regression analysis models with generalized estimating equations. Analyses of smoking status were based on 34 021 employees. Separate models for heavy smoking (>20 cigarettes per day) were calculated for 6295 current smokers. Main results: After adjustment for age, education, socio-economic position, marital status, job contract, and negative affectivity, smokers who reported low procedural justice were about 1.4 times more likely to smoke >20 cigarettes per day compared with their counterparts with high justice. In a similar way, after adjustments, low justice in interpersonal treatment was significantly associated with an elevated prevalence of heavy smoking (odds ratio (OR) = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.77 for men and OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.83 for women). Further adjustment for job strain and effort-reward imbalance had little effect on these results. There were no associations between justice components and smoking status or ex-smoking. Conclusions: The extent to which employees are treated with justice in the workplace seems to be associated with smoking intensity independently of established stressors at work.