Rudolf Carnap : Construction et réduction. Textes inédits sur le physicalisme 1922-1955

Les textes inédits traduits et présentés dans ce volume constituent un témoignage exceptionnel quant à l'évolution de la pensée de Carnap, l'un des fondateurs de la philosophie analytique. Des premières ébauches d'une construction logique du monde à l'analyse logique des propositions du langage, ils nous font en effet assister aux différents moments d'un programme philosophique inscrit dans le débat du physicalisme et de l'unité de la science. La réductibilité des termes de la psychologie puis de la biologie aux termes de la physique implique-t-elle la dérivabilité de leurs lois aux siennes ? Y a-t-il bonne conséquence d'une épistémologie de la réduction à une réduction ontologique ? Le monde, en somme, est-il entièrement explicable par le langage, et si oui, lequel ?

Methods for Estimating Annual Exceedance-Probability Discharges for Streams in Iowa, Based on Data through Water Year 2010, TR-519, 2013

A statewide study was performed to develop regional regression equations for estimating selected annual exceedance- probability statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders. Annual exceedanceprobability estimates were computed for 518 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data through 2010. The estimation of the selected statistics included a Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least-squares regression analysis to update regional skew coefficients for the 518 streamgages. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low flows. Also, geographic information system software was used to measure 59 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Regional regression analysis, using generalized leastsquares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for each flood region in Iowa for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. A total of 394 streamgages were included in the development of regional regression equations for three flood regions (regions 1, 2, and 3) that were defined for Iowa based on landform regions and soil regions. Average standard errors of prediction range from 31.8 to 45.2 percent for flood region 1, 19.4 to 46.8 percent for flood region 2, and 26.5 to 43.1 percent for flood region 3. The pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized leastsquares equations range from 90.8 to 96.2 percent for flood region 1, 91.5 to 97.9 percent for flood region 2, and 92.4 to 96.0 percent for flood region 3. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with flows not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. These regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based geographic information system tool. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged site on a river and compute estimates of the eight selected statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged sites also are provided by the Web-based tool. StreamStats also allows users to click on any streamgage in Iowa and estimates computed for these eight selected statistics are provided for the streamgage.

La valoració prehospitalària del dolor en el pacient politraumatitzat: una nova eina per valorar i enregistrar el dolor

Els pacients politraumatitzats representen un important problema a nivell mundial i també en el nostre país. Els traumatismes són una important causa de mortalitat per a la població més jove i provoquen unes seqüeles molt importants, tant a nivell físic, psicològic i social. Un dels factors que influeixen en l’aparició d’aquestes seqüeles és el dolor que pateixen aquests malalts durant els moments posteriors a l’accident. És per aquest motiu que al llarg d’aquest treball de final de carrera d’infermeria, s’intentarà donar una solució útil per als professionals sanitaris encarregats d’atendre aquests pacients en primera instància. En primer lloc és farà una descripció d’alguns dels temes més importants i més destacats pel que fa als pacients politraumatitzats i al dolor que aquests pateixen. A continuació es donaran a conèixer algunes dades pel que fa a la prevalença d’aquest problema i per últim es presentarà una nova eina de valoració del dolor pensada per donar solució als problemes que els professionals sanitaris tenen de resoldre durant la seva practica clínica diària. En el present treball també es té en compte de quina forma es realitzarà una avaluació dels resultats de la mateixa eina per tal d’estudiar els seus punts més dèbils i implantar noves mesures enfocades a millorar-ne el funcionament.

Spontaneous 24-h GHRELIN secretion pattern in fasting subjects : maintenance of a meal-related pattern

RESUME OBJECTIF: Outre la stimulation de la sécrétion d'hormone de croissance, la ghréline cause une prise pondérale par augmentation de l'assimilation d'aliments et réduction de la consommation lipidique. Il a été décrit que les taux de ghréline augmentent durant la phase pré-prandiale et diminuent juste après un repas, ceci suggérant qu'elle puisse jouer un rôle d'initiateur de la prise du repas. Cependant, la sécrétion de ghréline chez des sujets à jeun n'a pas encore été étudiée en détail. DESSIN: Les profils de sécrétion de ghréline pendant 24 heures ont été étudiés chez six sujets volontaires sains (3 femmes, 3 hommes; 25.5 ans; BMI 22.8 kg/m2) et comparés aux profils plasmatiques de l'hormone de croissance, de l'insuline et du glucose. METHODE: Des échantillons sanguins ont été prélevés toutes les 20 minutes pendant 24 heures et les taux de ghréline ont été mesurés par radio-immuno essai, utilisant un anticorps polyclonal de lapin. Le profil circadien de la sécrétion de ghréline (cluster analysis) a été évalué. RESULTATS: Une augmentation puis une diminution spontanée des taux de ghréline ont été observées aux moments où les sujets auraient habituellement mangé. La ghréline a été sécrétée de façon pulsatile avec approximativement 8 pics par 24 heures. Une diminution générale des taux de ghréline a également été observée durant la période d'étude. Aucune corrélation n'a pu être observée entre les taux de ghréline, d'homione de croissance, d'insuline et de glucose. CONCLUSIONS: Cette étude montre que pendant une période de jeûne les taux de ghréline suivent un profil similaire à ceux décrits chez des sujets mangeant 3 fois par jour. Durant le jeûne, l'hormone de croissance, l'insuline et le glucose ne semblent pas être impliqués dans la régulation de la sécrétion de ghréline. En outre, nous avons observé que la sécrétion de ghréline est pulsatile. La variation des taux de ghréline, indépendamment des repas, chez des sujets à jeun, renforce les observations préalables selon lesquelles le système nerveux central est primairement impliqué dans la régulation de la prise alimentaire. ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: Ghrelin stimulates GH release and causes weight gain through increased food intake and reduced fat utiIization. Ghrelin levels were shown to rise in the preprandial period and decrease shortly after meal consumption, suggesting a role as a possible meal initiator. However, ghrelin secretion in fasting subjects has not yet been studied in detail. DESIGN: 24-h ghrelin profiles were studied in six healthy volunteers (three females; 25.5 years; body mass index 22.8 kg/m2) and compared with GH, insulin and glucose levels. METHODS: Blood samples were taken every 20 min during a 24-h fasting period and total ghrelin levels were measured by RIA using a polyclonal rabbit antibody. The circadian pattern of ghrelin secretion and pulsatility (Cluster analysis) were evaluated. RESULTS: An increase and spontaneous decrease in ghrelin were seen at the timepoints of customary meals. Ghrelin was secreted in a pulsatile manner with approximately 8 peaks/24 h. An overall decrease in ghrelin levels was observed during the study period. There was no correlation of ghrelin with GH, insulin or blood glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study indicates that fasting ghrelin profiles display a circadian pattern similar to that described in people eating three times per day. In a fasting condition. GH, insulin and glucose do not appear to be involved in ghrelin regulation. In addition, we round that ghrelin is secreted in a pulsatile pattern. The variation in ghrelin independently of meals in fasting subjects supports previous observations that it is the brain that is primarily involved in the regulation of meal initiation.

Conceptes, notes i comentaris econòmics sobre la incertesa a mode de vocabulari bàsic i quadre síntètic

Gairebé han passat 20 anys d’ençà que vaig començar a reflexionar sobre la incertesa dela mà del Dr. Dídac Ramírez. Vaig presentar una tesi dirigida per ell l’any 2003, he fetarticles, he presentat comunicacions en seminaris i col·loquis. El tema de la incertesa ésmolt ampli; es relaciona amb el coneixement, l'aleatorietat, el caos, l'ètica, la psicologia,etc. En aquests 20 anys, a poc a poc, he anat lligant alguns caps i, en aquests moments,penso que pot tenir interès presentar al seminari IAFI del Departament de Matemàtiquesde la Facultat d’Econòmiques de la UB un esquema amb aquestes idees lligades enforma de vocabulari.Molts dels termes del vocabulari els proposo jo, per la qual cosa no m’he pogut limitar adonar una definició precisa i he necessitat posar explicacions i exemples per tal dejustificar el seu interès.

Crònica (il·lustrada) d’un viatge al paradís: expedició a les Illes Salvatges

Entre l’11 i el 27 de març va tenir lloc l’expedició “Savage Islands Botanical Expedition 2013 – Expedição Botânica Ilhas Selvagens 2013”, que va constituir un dels moments més àlgids i alhora emocionants del projecte “Conservation of the critically endangered endemic flora of the Selvagens Islands, Atlantic Ocean”, finançat per The Mohammed bin Zayed Species Conservation Fund (http://www.speciesconservation.org/). Aquest projecte se centra en l’estudi de tres endemismes exclusius de l’arxipèlag de les Salvatges greument amenaçats, amb l’objectiu final d’implementar mesures efectives per a la seva conservació (vegeu http://www.speciesconservation.org/case‐studies‐projects//1651 per a més informació). Aquests tres endemismes (Euphorbia anachoreta, Asparagus nesiotes subsp. nesiotes i Argyranthemum thalassophilum) compten amb molts pocs efectius (abans de l’expedició s’estimava una mida poblacional inferior a la cinquantena per als dos primers, i de menys de 250 per al darrer) i tenen un gran interès des del punt de vista biogeogràfic atesos l’aïllament de l’arxipèlag (el territori terrestre més proper són les Illes Canàries, situades a uns 165 quilòmetres al sud) i la seva antiguitat geològica (prop de 30 milions d’anys, essent l’arxipèlag més antic de tota la Macaronèsia; Geldmacher et al., 2001).

Investigation of Negative Moment Reinforcing in Bridge Decks, TR-660, 2015

Multi-span pre-tensioned pre-stressed concrete beam (PPCB) bridges made continuous usually experience a negative live load moment region over the intermediate supports. Conventional thinking dictates that sufficient reinforcement must be provided in this region to satisfy the strength and serviceability requirements associated with the tensile stresses in the deck. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) Bridge Design Specifications recommend the negative moment reinforcement (b2 reinforcement) be extended beyond the inflection point. Based upon satisfactory previous performance and judgment, the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) Office of Bridges and Structures (OBS) currently terminates b2 reinforcement at 1/8 of the span length. Although the Iowa DOT policy results in approximately 50% shorter b2 reinforcement than the AASHTO LRFD specifications, the Iowa DOT has not experienced any significant deck cracking over the intermediate supports. The primary objective of this project was to investigate the Iowa DOT OBS policy regarding the required amount of b2 reinforcement to provide the continuity over bridge decks. Other parameters, such as termination length, termination pattern, and effects of the secondary moments, were also studied. Live load tests were carried out on five bridges. The data were used to calibrate three-dimensional finite element models of two bridges. Parametric studies were conducted on the bridges with an uncracked deck, a cracked deck, and a cracked deck with a cracked pier diaphragm for live load and shrinkage load. The general conclusions were as follows: -- The parametric study results show that an increased area of the b2 reinforcement slightly reduces the strain over the pier, whereas an increased length and staggered reinforcement pattern slightly reduce the strains of the deck at 1/8 of the span length. -- Finite element modeling results suggest that the transverse field cracks over the pier and at 1/8 of the span length are mainly due to deck shrinkage. -- Bridges with larger skew angles have lower strains over the intermediate supports. -- Secondary moments affect the behavior in the negative moment region. The impact may be significant enough such that no tensile stresses in the deck may be experienced.

Comparisons of Estimates of Annual Exceedance-Probability Discharges for Small Drainage Basins in Iowa, Based on Data through Water Year 2013, TR-678, 2015

Traditionally, the Iowa Department of Transportation has used the Iowa Runoff Chart and single-variable regional-regression equations (RREs) from a U.S. Geological Survey report (published in 1987) as the primary methods to estimate annual exceedance-probability discharge (AEPD) for small (20 square miles or less) drainage basins in Iowa. With the publication of new multi- and single-variable RREs by the U.S. Geological Survey (published in 2013), the Iowa Department of Transportation needs to determine which methods of AEPD estimation provide the best accuracy and the least bias for small drainage basins in Iowa. Twenty five streamgages with drainage areas less than 2 square miles (mi2) and 55 streamgages with drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi2 were selected for the comparisons that used two evaluation metrics. Estimates of AEPDs calculated for the streamgages using the expected moments algorithm/multiple Grubbs-Beck test analysis method were compared to estimates of AEPDs calculated from the 2013 multivariable RREs; the 2013 single-variable RREs; the 1987 single-variable RREs; the TR-55 rainfall-runoff model; and the Iowa Runoff Chart. For the 25 streamgages with drainage areas less than 2 mi2, results of the comparisons seem to indicate the best overall accuracy and the least bias may be achieved by using the TR-55 method for flood regions 1 and 3 (published in 2013) and by using the 1987 single-variable RREs for flood region 2 (published in 2013). For drainage basins with areas between 2 and 20 mi2, results of the comparisons seem to indicate the best overall accuracy and the least bias may be achieved by using the 1987 single-variable RREs for the Southern Iowa Drift Plain landform region and for flood region 3 (published in 2013), by using the 2013 multivariable RREs for the Iowan Surface landform region, and by using the 2013 or 1987 single-variable RREs for flood region 2 (published in 2013). For all other landform or flood regions in Iowa, use of the 2013 single-variable RREs may provide the best overall accuracy and the least bias. An examination was conducted to understand why the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias than either of the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs. A comparison of 1-percent annual exceedance-probability regression lines for hydrologic regions 1–4 from the 1987 single-variable RREs and for flood regions 1–3 from the 2013 single-variable RREs indicates that the 1987 single-variable regional-regression lines generally have steeper slopes and lower discharges when compared to 2013 single-variable regional-regression lines for corresponding areas of Iowa. The combination of the definition of hydrologic regions, the lower discharges, and the steeper slopes of regression lines associated with the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias when compared to the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs; better accuracy and less bias was determined particularly for drainage areas less than 2 mi2, and also for some drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi2. The 2013 multi- and single-variable RREs are considered to provide better accuracy and less bias for larger drainage areas. Results of this study indicate that additional research is needed to address the curvilinear relation between drainage area and AEPDs for areas of Iowa.

Diffusion in stationary flow from mesoscopic nonequilibrium thermodynamics

We analyze the diffusion of a Brownian particle in a fluid under stationary flow. By using the scheme of nonequilibrium thermodynamics in phase space, we obtain the Fokker-Planck equation that is compared with others derived from the kinetic theory and projector operator techniques. This equation exhibits violation of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. By implementing the hydrodynamic regime described by the first moments of the nonequilibrium distribution, we find relaxation equations for the diffusion current and pressure tensor, allowing us to arrive at a complete description of the system in the inertial and diffusion regimes. The simplicity and generality of the method we propose makes it applicable to more complex situations, often encountered in problems of soft-condensed matter, in which not only one but more degrees of freedom are coupled to a nonequilibrium bath.

Infirmier en psychiatrie de liaison : développement de la supervision en milieu somatique [Liaison psychiatry nurse: The development of supervision in somatic medicine].

BACKGROUND: Over the years, somatic care has become increasingly specialized. Furthermore, a rising number of patients requiring somatic care also present with a psychiatric comorbidity. As a consequence, the time and resources needed to care for these patients can interfere with the course of somatic treatment and influence the patient-caregiver relationship. In the light of these observations, the Liaison Psychiatry Unit at the University Hospital in Lausanne (CHUV) has educated its nursing staff in order to strengthen its action within the general care hospital. What has been developed is a reflexive approach through supervision of somatic staff, in order to improve the efficiency of liaison psychiatry interventions with the caregivers in charge of patients. The kind of supervision we have developed is the result of a real partnership with somatic staff. Besides, in order to better understand the complexity of interactions between the two systems involved, the patient's and the caregivers', we use several theoretical references in an integrative manner. PSYCHOANALYTICAL REFERENCE: The psychoanalytical model allows us to better understand the dynamics between the supervisor and the supervised group in order to contain and give meaning to the affects arising in the supervision space. "Containing function" and "transitional phenomena" refer to the experience in which emotions can find a space where they can be taken in and processed in a secure and supportive manner. These concepts, along with that of the "psychic envelope", were initially developed to explain the psychological development of the baby in its early interactions with its mother or its surrogate. In the field of supervision, they allow us to be aware of these complex phenomena and the diverse qualities to which a supervisor needs to resort, such as attention, support and incentive, in order to offer a secure environment. SYSTEMIC REFERENCE: A new perspective of the patient's complexity is revealed by the group's dynamics. The supervisor's attention is mainly focused on the work of affects. However, these are often buried under a defensive shell, serving as a temporary protection, which prevents the caregiver from recognizing his or her own emotions, thereby enhancing the difficulties in the relationship with the patient. Whenever the work of putting emotions into words fail, we use "sculpting", a technique derived from the systemic model. Through the use of this type of analogical language, affects can emerge without constraint or feelings of danger. Through "playing" in that "transitional space", new exchanges appear between group members and allow new behaviors to be conceived. In practice, we ask the supervisee who is presenting a complex situation, to design a spatial representation of his or her understanding of the situation, through the display of characters significant to the situation: the patient, somatic staff members, relatives of the patient, etc. In silence, the supervisee shapes the characters into postures and arranges them in the room. Each sculpted character is identified, named, and positioned, with his or her gaze being set in a specific direction. Finally the sculptor shapes him or herself in his or her own role. When the sculpture is complete and after a few moments of fixation, we ask participants to express themselves about their experience. By means of this physical representation, participants to the sculpture discover perceptions and feelings that were unknown up to then. Hence from this analogical representation a reflection and hypotheses of understanding can arise and be developed within the group. CONCLUSION: Through the use of the concepts of "containing function" and "transitional space" we position ourselves in the scope of the encounter and the dialog. Through the use of the systemic technique of "sculpting" we promote the process of understanding, rather than that of explaining, which would place us in the position of experts. The experience of these encounters has shown us that what we need to focus on is indeed what happens in this transitional space in terms of dynamics and process. The encounter and the sharing of competencies both allow a new understanding of the situation at hand, which has, of course, to be verified in the reality of the patient-caregiver relationship. It is often a source of adjustment for interpersonal skills to recover its containing function in order to enable caregiver to better respond to the patient's needs.

Set reformulacions per a una dramatúrgia interactiva

La hibridació de les noves tecnologies amb la posada en escena, en obres i espais de representació, està obrint noves formes d'aproximació al fet dramatúrgic. Així s'ha esdevingut en la història del teatre sobre l'escriptura, l'escenografia o l'acció actoral. El que aquí volem tractar és com les tecnologies interactives poden representar un altre d'aquests moments d'inflexió. Aquest article parteix de l'experiència obtinguda en la direcció, juntament amb Montse Figueras, de la instal·lació Prometzeus presentada a la sala Muncunill de Terrassa el 2004. Una aproximació amateur en l’experimentació de noves dramatúrgies que feia ús de tecnologies audiovisuals interactives. Volem presentar una primera reflexió sobre la qüestió i exposar set d'aquestes possibles reformulacions. Set punts on les tecnologies interactives reformulen el llenguatge teatral.

Desenvolupament de les competències transversals d'intervenció : disseny del seminari de 4t curs de psicologia

L’objectiu principal d’aquest projecte és concretar la manera de desenvolupar les competències transversals del futur psicòleg de grau en el seminari de 4rt curs, tenint present les matèries a les que està vinculat i la coherència de tot el curriculum de grau. Els objectius específics són tres: 1) integrar l’experiència de més de quinze anys al seminari de 4rt curs al nou pla d’estudis, 2) definir les estratègies d'ensenyament-aprenentatge i els instruments didàctics que afavoreixin l'assoliment dels objectius establerts i, 3) reflexionar sobre l’avaluació del seminari tot establint criteris compartits. El mètode ha estat el del treball cooperatiu, partint de les competències transversals a treballar al seminari. El resultat és una guia de treball comú que estableix unes bases mínimes per garantir un nivell d’assoliment de competències transversals, especialment les relacionades amb la intervenció psicològica, amb respecte per a totes les orientacions teòriques i perfils professionals. Les competències bàsiques les hem relacionat amb els eixos identitaris de Blanquerna com són: Saber (conèixer les principals orientacions teòriques), Saber Ser (gestió de les emocions) i Saber Fer (treballar en equip, comunicar, intervenir). Les diferents activitats s’han integrat en els eixos de les competències bàsiques i en els diferents moments temporals del seminari (inici, desenvolupament i finalització).

Biomechanical stability of a posterior-alone fixation technique after craniovertebral junction realignment.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the current study was to investigate the biomechanical stability and fixation strength provided by a posterior approach reconstruction technique to realign the craniovertebral junction.¦METHODS: We tested seven human cadaver occipito-cervical spines (occiput-C4) by applying pure moments of ±1.5 Nm on a spine tester. Each specimen was tested in the following modes: 1) intact; 2) injured; 3) spacers alone at C1-C2 articulation (S); 4) spacers plus C1-C2 Posterior Instrumentation (S+PI); and 5) spacers plus C1-C2 posterior instrumentation plus midline wiring (S+PI+MLW). C1-C2 range of motion for each construct was obtained in flexion-extension, lateral bending, and axial rotation.¦RESULTS: In all the loading modes, S, S+PI, and S+PI+MLW constructs significantly reduced range of motion compared with the intact and injured condition (P < 0.05). There was no statistical difference between any of the three instrumentation constructs (P > 0.05).¦CONCLUSIONS: This study investigated the biomechanics of the posterior approach technique for realignment of the craniovertebral junction and also made comparisons with additional posterior fixations. The stand-alone spacers were stable in all three loading modes. Posterior instrumentation increased the stability as compared to stand-alone spacers. The third point of fixation, carried out by using midline wiring, increased the stability further. However, there was not much difference in the stability imparted with the midline wiring versus without. The present study highlights the biomechanics of this novel concept and reaffirms the view that distraction of the C1-C2 articular facets and direct articular joint atlantoaxial fixation would be an ideal method of management of basilar invagination.

Joc, humanisme i pedagogia : la virtut de l'eutrapèlia

Aquest treball té per objectiu mostrar que el joc constitueix un dels trets inherents de la cultura universal i, per extensió, de la tradició occidental. Naturalment, el joc ha estat objecte de diverses consideracions morals, lligades en més d’una ocasió a la religió. En alguns moments –i també des del cristianisme– s’han condemnat amb rigor i severitat les pràctiques lúdiques i, molt especialment, els jocs d’atzar i el món dels espectacles. De fet, la realitat històrica aquí analitzada –a través del cas concret del jeu de paume– confirma l’existència d’una activitat lúdica ben significativa que, malgrat totes les prevencions, va ser tolerada –i fins i tot aprovada– pels humanistes del Renaixement en acceptar la seva vàlua educativa. Sortosament, aquells savis humanistes comptaven amb l’eutrapèlia, una virtut d’arrel aristotèlica que va ser cristianitzada per sant Tomàs d’Aquino i que, com es veurà a continuació, també va arribar a casa nostra a la Baixa Edat Mitjana a través de Francesc Eiximenis. Si algú pensa que la gent d’abans no es divertia, comet un gran error, perquè el nostre passat històric és curull de jocs i activitats lúdiques. Nogensmenys, l’eutrapèlia també es perfila com una virtut social, tal com apareix en diferents autors de l’Edat Moderna, com ara Cervantes, Gracián i Feijoo.

On optimal dividend strategies with deficit or incomplete information

Rapport de synthèse Cette thèse consiste en trois essais sur les stratégies optimales de dividendes. Chaque essai correspond à un chapitre. Les deux premiers essais ont été écrits en collaboration avec les Professeurs Hans Ulrich Gerber et Elias S. W. Shiu et ils ont été publiés; voir Gerber et al. (2006b) ainsi que Gerber et al. (2008). Le troisième essai a été écrit en collaboration avec le Professeur Hans Ulrich Gerber. Le problème des stratégies optimales de dividendes remonte à de Finetti (1957). Il se pose comme suit: considérant le surplus d'une société, déterminer la stratégie optimale de distribution des dividendes. Le critère utilisé consiste à maximiser la somme des dividendes escomptés versés aux actionnaires jusqu'à la ruine2 de la société. Depuis de Finetti (1957), le problème a pris plusieurs formes et a été résolu pour différents modèles. Dans le modèle classique de théorie de la ruine, le problème a été résolu par Gerber (1969) et plus récemment, en utilisant une autre approche, par Azcue and Muler (2005) ou Schmidli (2008). Dans le modèle classique, il y a un flux continu et constant d'entrées d'argent. Quant aux sorties d'argent, elles sont aléatoires. Elles suivent un processus à sauts, à savoir un processus de Poisson composé. Un exemple qui correspond bien à un tel modèle est la valeur du surplus d'une compagnie d'assurance pour lequel les entrées et les sorties sont respectivement les primes et les sinistres. Le premier graphique de la Figure 1 en illustre un exemple. Dans cette thèse, seules les stratégies de barrière sont considérées, c'est-à-dire quand le surplus dépasse le niveau b de la barrière, l'excédent est distribué aux actionnaires comme dividendes. Le deuxième graphique de la Figure 1 montre le même exemple du surplus quand une barrière de niveau b est introduite, et le troisième graphique de cette figure montre, quand à lui, les dividendes cumulés. Chapitre l: "Maximizing dividends without bankruptcy" Dans ce premier essai, les barrières optimales sont calculées pour différentes distributions du montant des sinistres selon deux critères: I) La barrière optimale est calculée en utilisant le critère usuel qui consiste à maximiser l'espérance des dividendes escomptés jusqu'à la ruine. II) La barrière optimale est calculée en utilisant le second critère qui consiste, quant à lui, à maximiser l'espérance de la différence entre les dividendes escomptés jusqu'à la ruine et le déficit au moment de la ruine. Cet essai est inspiré par Dickson and Waters (2004), dont l'idée est de faire supporter aux actionnaires le déficit au moment de la ruine. Ceci est d'autant plus vrai dans le cas d'une compagnie d'assurance dont la ruine doit être évitée. Dans l'exemple de la Figure 1, le déficit au moment de la ruine est noté R. Des exemples numériques nous permettent de comparer le niveau des barrières optimales dans les situations I et II. Cette idée, d'ajouter une pénalité au moment de la ruine, a été généralisée dans Gerber et al. (2006a). Chapitre 2: "Methods for estimating the optimal dividend barrier and the probability of ruin" Dans ce second essai, du fait qu'en pratique on n'a jamais toute l'information nécessaire sur la distribution du montant des sinistres, on suppose que seuls les premiers moments de cette fonction sont connus. Cet essai développe et examine des méthodes qui permettent d'approximer, dans cette situation, le niveau de la barrière optimale, selon le critère usuel (cas I ci-dessus). Les approximations "de Vylder" et "diffusion" sont expliquées et examinées: Certaines de ces approximations utilisent deux, trois ou quatre des premiers moments. Des exemples numériques nous permettent de comparer les approximations du niveau de la barrière optimale, non seulement avec les valeurs exactes mais également entre elles. Chapitre 3: "Optimal dividends with incomplete information" Dans ce troisième et dernier essai, on s'intéresse à nouveau aux méthodes d'approximation du niveau de la barrière optimale quand seuls les premiers moments de la distribution du montant des sauts sont connus. Cette fois, on considère le modèle dual. Comme pour le modèle classique, dans un sens il y a un flux continu et dans l'autre un processus à sauts. A l'inverse du modèle classique, les gains suivent un processus de Poisson composé et les pertes sont constantes et continues; voir la Figure 2. Un tel modèle conviendrait pour une caisse de pension ou une société qui se spécialise dans les découvertes ou inventions. Ainsi, tant les approximations "de Vylder" et "diffusion" que les nouvelles approximations "gamma" et "gamma process" sont expliquées et analysées. Ces nouvelles approximations semblent donner de meilleurs résultats dans certains cas.