Rational intuitionism

In this paper I give a critical overview of the views of the main Rational Intuitionists from 18th to 20th century.

What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?

During the 20th century, solar activity increased in magnitude to a so-called grand maximum. It is probable that this high level of solar activity is at or near its end. It is of great interest whether any future reduction in solar activity could have a significant impact on climate that could partially offset the projected anthropogenic warming. Observations and reconstructions of solar activity over the last 9000 years are used as a constraint on possible future variations to produce probability distributions of total solar irradiance over the next 100 years. Using this information, with a simple climate model, we present results of the potential implications for future projections of climate on decadal to multidecadal timescales. Using one of the most recent reconstructions of historic total solar irradiance, the likely reduction in the warming by 2100 is found to be between 0.06 and 0.1 K, a very small fraction of the projected anthropogenic warming. However, if past total solar irradiance variations are larger and climate models substantially underestimate the response to solar variations, then there is a potential for a reduction in solar activity to mitigate a small proportion of the future warming, a scenario we cannot totally rule out. While the Sun is not expected to provide substantial delays in the time to reach critical temperature thresholds, any small delays it might provide are likely to be greater for lower anthropogenic emissions scenarios than for higher-emissions scenarios.

'Nature concocts & expels': the agents and processes of recovery from disease in Early Modern England

The ‘golden saying’ in early modern medicine was ‘Nature is the healer of disease’. This article uncovers the meaning and significance of this forgotten axiom by investigating perceptions of the agents and physiological processes of recovery from illness in England, c.1580-1720. Drawing on sources such as medical texts and diaries, it shows that doctors and laypeople attributed recovery to three agents – God, Nature, and the practitioner. While scholars are familiar with the roles of providence and medicine, the vital agency of Nature has been overlooked. In theory, the agents operated in a hierarchy: Nature was ‘God’s instrument’, and the physician, ‘Nature’s servant’; but in practice the power balance was more ambivalent. Nature was depicted both as a housewife who cooked and cleaned the humours, and as a warrior, who defeated the disease. Through exploring these complex dynamics, the article sheds fresh light on concepts of gender, disease, and bodies.

The Spanish Guerrilla 1808-1814 as a model for people’s wars and resistance movements

Transforming the meaning of the term 'guerrilla' which had once meant feud or private warfare, and then irregular war conducted by special forces on behalf of a state or government, the Spanish Guerrilla (part of the Peninsular War) against Napoleon became the model to be emulated by insurgency movements across the world. Even though the term itself continued to be used, even in Spanish, for special operations, in henceforth became imbued with an ideological dimension, which is how it would be used especially in the 20th century.

A new calibrated sunspot group series since 1749: statistics of active day fractions

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. Daisy-chain regression methods are applied to inter-calibrate the observers which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method to calibrate the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900-1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds [S_S] defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than S_S and report all the groups larger than S_S. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method we construct, from the reference data set, a correction matrix for each observer. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot group records for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg minimum), as well as the Modern grand maximum of activity in the second half of the 20th century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. It is shown that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the 18th and 19th centuries in some reconstructions.

'The debatable territory where geology and archaeology meet': reassessing the early archaeobotanical work of Clement Reid and Arthur Lyell at Roman Silchester

The first large-scale archaeobotanical study in Britain, conducted from 1899 to 1909 by Clement Reid and Arthur Lyell at Silchester, provided the first evidence for the introduction of Roman plant foods to Britain, yet the findings have thus far remained unverified. This paper presents a reassessment of these archaeobotanical remains, now stored as part of the Silchester Collection in Reading Museum. The documentary evidence for the Silchester study is summarised, before the results are presented for over a 1000 plant remains including an assessment of preservation, identification and modern contamination. The dataset includes both evidence for the presence of nationally rare plant foods, such as medlar, and several archaeophytes. The methodologies and original interpretations of Reid and Lyell’s study are reassessed in light of current archaeobotanical knowledge. Spatial and contextual patterns in the distribution of plant foods and ornamental taxa are also explored. Finally, the legacy of the study for the development of archaeobotany in the 20th century is evaluated.

Civilian casualties – do we really care? The failure of the revolution in military affairs of non-lethal weapons in the U.S., Russia and Israel

Causing civilian casualties during military operations has become a much politicised topic in international relations since the Second World War. Since the last decade of the 20th century, different scholars and political analysts have claimed that human life is valued more and more among the general international community. This argument has led many researchers to assume that democratic culture and traditions, modern ethical and moral issues have created a desire for a world without war or, at least, a demand that contemporary armed conflicts, if unavoidable, at least have to be far less lethal forcing the military to seek new technologies that can minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage. Non-Lethal Weapons (NLW) – weapons that are intended to minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage – are based on the technology that, during the 1990s, was expected to revolutionise the conduct of warfare making it significantly less deadly. The rapid rise of interest in NLW, ignited by the American military twenty five years ago, sparked off an entirely new military, as well as an academic, discourse concerning their potential contribution to military success on the 21st century battlefields. It seems, however, that except for this debate, very little has been done within the military forces themselves. This research suggests that the roots of this situation are much deeper than the simple professional misconduct of the military establishment, or the poor political behaviour of political leaders, who had sent them to fight. Following the story of NLW in the U.S., Russia and Israel this research focuses on the political and cultural aspects that have been supposed to force the military organisations of these countries to adopt new technologies and operational and organisational concepts regarding NLW in an attempt to minimise enemy civilian casualties during their military operations. This research finds that while American, Russian and Israeli national characters are, undoubtedly, products of the unique historical experience of each one of these nations, all of three pay very little regard to foreigners’ lives. Moreover, while it is generally argued that the international political pressure is a crucial factor that leads to the significant reduction of harmed civilians and destroyed civilian infrastructure, the findings of this research suggest that the American, Russian and Israeli governments are well prepared and politically equipped to fend off international criticism. As the analyses of the American, Russian and Israeli cases reveal, the political-military leaderships of these countries have very little external or domestic reasons to minimise enemy civilian casualties through fundamental-revolutionary change in their conduct of war. In other words, this research finds that employment of NLW have failed because the political leadership asks the militaries to reduce the enemy civilian casualties to a politically acceptable level, rather than to the technologically possible minimum; as in the socio-cultural-political context of each country, support for the former appears to be significantly higher than for the latter.

Deiro Collection Finding Aid

The Deiro Collection at the City University of New York Graduate Center's Mina Rees Library is an archival collection of materials related to the professional and personal lives of Guido Deiro (1886-1950), Pietro Deiro Sr. (1888-1954) and Pietro “Lee” Deiro Jr. (1913-1999). Immigrating from Italy to the United States in the early 1900's, the Deiro brothers Guido and Pietro, made enduring contributions to the popularization of the Piano Accordion in the 20th Century. As masters of the instrument, the Deiro's achieved headliner status on the vaudeville theatre circuit. Both composed, arranged and recorded an impressive repertoire of accordion music. Pietro Deiro Publications produced a catalogue of over 10,000 pieces of sheet music and instructional materials for the Piano Accordion. The Deiro Collection documents not only a singular segment of American musical history but also a unique aspect of the Italian-American experience in 20th Century America.

Bini Customary law of inheritence : a shift in Igiogbe as a case study

Igiogbe cultural heritage has existed since the founding of Bini kingdom without any controversy; however since the Supreme Court decision in Idehen v Idehen the issue of Igiogbe has assumed new dimensions. Igiogbe - the house in which a Benin man lived and died devolves on his first son absolutely; but since the beginning of 20th century litigation as to the real meaning of Igiogbe and who is entitled to inheritance thereof began to increase. Controversies and increase in litigation over Igiogbe has occasioned a shift in the practice, the Bini’s are not conscious of some of these changes, most of them (Bini’s) still claim Igiogbe practices is rigidly adhered to. This study on Igiogbe inheritance in Bini kingdom is therefore carried out with a view to bringing out the changes in Igiogbe cultural practice using legal and anthropological tools to examine the changes. While laying the foundation for the discussion on the main research object the researcher examined the origin and status of customary law in Nigeria. There after I examined Igiogbe inheritance in Bini kingdom. Igiogbe and the issue of first son were critically analyzed with the aid of the research questions bringing out the changes in Igiogbe concept from traditional practice to modern practice. Study shows Igiogbe practice is still relevant in modern Bini kingdom, however, the shift and changes in practice of this cultural milieu has lead me to ask some fundamental questions which I intend to answer in the broader research work in future.

Greek shipping and the crisis of the 1980's

In 1982, Greek shipping plunged into a severe crisis: the size of the fleet declined dramatically and over 30% of the fleet was laid-up. catapulting many shipping companies into bankruptcy. The causes of the crisis were: The world recession, leading to regulation, protectionism, subsidization. and the growth of new competition in the tramp shipping market. The erosion of the cost differential between Greek shipping and other maritime nations of the world. The specialization and containerization of the world fleet. The old age and other characteristics of the Greek fleet, which exacerbated the crisis. Greek shipping, with its long history and the expertise, diligence, and supreme opportunism of its dynamic shipowners, will survive the crisis.

O outro lado de cá: histórias e memórias de Cachoeira da Prata

O principal objetivo dessa dissertação é analisar, através de um estudo caso, como a questão do “preconceito intergrupal” pode ser percebida no desenvolvimento histórico de pequenos municípios brasileiros. Escolhendo a história da memória da cidade de Cachoeira da Prata como objeto central, buscamos discutir como ocorreu o processo de diferenciação social da pequena comunidade formada pelos descendentes do ex-escravo Nicolau Teixeira do restante da cidade. Para tanto, dividimos a dissertação em duas partes. A primeira é formada pelos três primeiros capítulos, nos quais apresentamos a vila fabril de Cachoeira de Macacos como o cenário, no qual o cel. Américo Teixeira é identificado como o líder maior de um projeto de domínio político e industrial que deixou marcas duradouras na memória da população mais antiga da cidade. Nesse contexto, buscamos discutir como o fenômeno do pós-emancipação da escravidão se manifestou na localidade, analisando parte da trajetória de vida do ex-escravo Nicolau Teixeira, um leal apoiador do projeto político do cel. Américo, que se tornou, na primeira metade do século XX, o patriarca de uma comunidade criada nas imediações da antiga vila fabril. Na segunda parte, composta exclusivamente pelo quarto capítulo, discutimos de maneira conjugada, a história da diferenciação social da comunidade e diferentes posicionamentos políticos e metodológicos que adotamos ao longo da pesquisa. Após essa análise, concluímos que só é possível entender os meandros do processo que levou os descendentes de Nicolau Teixeira à condição de exclusão social após percebê-los como atores capazes de elaborar narrativas e representações que auxiliam a população de Cachoeira da Prata a conhecer um “outro lado” da história local.

História do turismo em Petrópolis entre 1900 e 1930

O presente trabalho pretendeu analisar de que forma se originou a construção da chamada “natureza turística” da cidade de Petrópolis, através de uma perspectiva histórica. Como objetivo específico, pretendi descrever como se deu a organização da atividade turística no município, destacando as suas origens, buscando compreender e identificar as principais narrativas e imagens que sustentam essa construção cultural, destacando as suas origens entre os anos de 1900 e 1930. Com este fim, o trabalho apresenta as origens e evolução da cidade de Petrópolis desde os antecedentes de sua fundação no século XIX. Em seguida, trabalhei no sentido de desvendar as transformações sociais no ato de viajar, na perspectiva de compreender as origens e consolidação da atividade turística organizada no município. Finalmente, analisei algumas narrativas e imagens que representam a construção cultural da “natureza turística” de Petrópolis, tendo como referência as primeiras décadas do Século XX. O estudo foi realizado através de recurso a literatura técnico-científica existente e também de pesquisa documental e iconográfica que retratasse narrativas e imagens do turismo em Petrópolis no início de sua organização. Para isso, foram selecionados guias e revistas publicados entre os anos de 1900 e 1930.

Development, progress and economic growth

Progress was an idea of the 18th century; development, a project of the 20th century that continues into the 21st century. Progress was associated with the advance of reason, development with the fulfillment of the five political objectives that modern societies set for themselves: security, freedom, economic well-being, social justice and protection of the environment. Today we can view progress and development as equivalent. Both were products of the capitalist revolution, and of the economic development that began with it. Economic development or growth, in its turn, is the process of capital accumulation with the incorporation of technical progress that, mainly through productive sophistication and the increase of the value of labor, increases wages and improves standards of living. The five objectives that define development, as well as the three social instances existing in society change in an interdependent way.