A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

Robotic Sensing and Manipulation of Deformable Linear Objects with Learning-based methods

Nowadays robotic applications are widespread and most of the manipulation tasks are efficiently solved. However, Deformable-Objects (DOs) still represent a huge limitation for robots. The main difficulty in DOs manipulation is dealing with the shape and dynamics uncertainties, which prevents the use of model-based approaches (since they are excessively computationally complex) and makes sensory data difficult to interpret. This thesis reports the research activities aimed to address some applications in robotic manipulation and sensing of Deformable-Linear-Objects (DLOs), with particular focus to electric wires. In all the works, a significant effort was made in the study of an effective strategy for analyzing sensory signals with various machine learning algorithms. In the former part of the document, the main focus concerns the wire terminals, i.e. detection, grasping, and insertion. First, a pipeline that integrates vision and tactile sensing is developed, then further improvements are proposed for each module. A novel procedure is proposed to gather and label massive amounts of training images for object detection with minimal human intervention. Together with this strategy, we extend a generic object detector based on Convolutional-Neural-Networks for orientation prediction. The insertion task is also extended by developing a closed-loop control capable to guide the insertion of a longer and curved segment of wire through a hole, where the contact forces are estimated by means of a Recurrent-Neural-Network. In the latter part of the thesis, the interest shifts to the DLO shape. Robotic reshaping of a DLO is addressed by means of a sequence of pick-and-place primitives, while a decision making process driven by visual data learns the optimal grasping locations exploiting Deep Q-learning and finds the best releasing point. The success of the solution leverages on a reliable interpretation of the DLO shape. For this reason, further developments are made on the visual segmentation.

Design and synthesis of E3 ligase RNF5 inhibitors as innovative strategy to trigger mutant CFTR rescue in Cystic Fibrosis

In Cystic Fibrosis (CF) the deletion of phenylalanine 508 (F508del) in the CFTR anion channel is associated to misfolding and defective gating of the mutant protein. Among the known proteins involved in CFTR processing, one of the most promising drug target is the ubiquitin ligase RNF5, which normally promotes F508del-CFTR degradation. In this context, a small molecule RNF5 inhibitor is expected to chemically mimic a condition of RNF5 silencing, thus preventing mutant CFTR degradation and causing its stabilization and plasma membrane trafficking. Hence, by exploiting a virtual screening (VS) campaign, the hit compound inh-2 was discovered as the first-in-class inhibitor of RNF5. Evaluation of inh-2 efficacy on CFTR rescue showed that it efficiently decreases ubiquitination of mutant CFTR and increases chloride current in human primary bronchial epithelia. Based on the promising biological results obtained with inh-2, this thesis reports the structure-based design of potential RNF5 inhibitors having improved potency and efficacy. The optimization of general synthetic strategies gave access to a library of analogues of the 1,2,4-thiadiazol-5-ylidene inh-2 for SAR investigation. The new analogues were tested for their corrector activity in CFBE41o- cells by using the microfluorimetric HS-YFP assay as a primary screen. Then, the effect of putative RNF5 inhibitors on proliferation, apoptosis and the formation of autophagic vacuoles was evaluated. Some of the new analogs significantly increased the basal level of autophagy, reproducing RNF5 silencing effect in cell. Among them, one compound also displayed a greater rescue of the F508del-CFTR trafficking defect than inh-2. Our preliminary results suggest that the 1,2,4-thiadiazolylidene could be a suitable scaffold for the discovery of potential RNF5 inhibitors able to rescue mutant CFTRs. Biological tests are still ongoing to acquire in-depth knowledge about the mechanism of action and therapeutic relevance of this unprecedented pharmacological strategy.

Valutazione cinematica complessiva, in vivo e sotto carico, di un modello protesico di caviglia a 3 componenti.

Nonostante le importanti ricadute che gli impianti protesici di caviglia hanno nella qualità della vita dei pazienti che si sottopongono ad intervento di sostituzione articolare, le reali proprietà biomeccaniche e cinematiche in-vivo e sotto carico degli impianti protesici sono state scarsamente studiate e descritte in letteratura. Lo scopo di questa trattazione è quella di valutare la cinematica protesica complessiva, in vivo, attraverso l’utilizzo dell’Analisi Radiostereometrica model-based (MB-RSA) e di ulteriori metodiche clinico-strumentali. La valutazione cinematica è stata permessa dall’analisi della posizione degli impianti attraverso la MB-RSA. Tra gli obiettivi secondari, i pazienti sono stati valutati clinicamente mediante AOFAS Ankle-Hindfoot score e SF-36, mediante full-body gait analysis con sensori inerziali e valutazione posturale-stabilometrica mediante Y Balance Test e workstation dedicata Delos DPPS. I pazienti sottoposti ad iter completo con valutazione clinica e strumentale a fine follow-up sono risultati 18 (2 drop-out). Il ROM complessivo a catena cinetica chiusa ha evidenziato una dorsi-plantarflessione complessiva media di 19.84°. Gli score clinici hanno mostrato tutti un netto miglioramento nel post-operatorio. La gait analysis ha evidenziato uno schema del passo composto dai tre principali spike e compatibile con schemi fisiologici. Dal punto di vista cinematico, i risultati angolari MB-RSA ricavati durante questo lavoro di tesi evidenziano tutti e 6 i gradi di libertà, dato coerente con la mobilità di una caviglia nativa. Valori di articolarità differenti sono stati registrati mediante sensori inerziali. Infine, in una valutazione cinematica complessiva, le possibili implicazioni sul bilanciamento posturale e propriocettivo presente nelle caviglie artrosiche e successivamente sottoposte a sostituzione protesica totale sono ampiamente descritte e discusse. I dati raccolti in questo lavoro di tesi rappresentano il risultato di una valutazione cinematica complessiva, e potranno aiutare a definire una tipologia di soggetto artrosico in cui i risultati siano verosimilmente migliori ed eventualmente a migliorare design e strumentari futuri.

Design, expression, and characterization of FimH antigen as single recombinant protein or exposed on nanoparticles

Uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) accounts for approximately 85% of all urinary tract infections (UTIs), causing a global economic burden. E. coli is one of the pathogens mentioned in the ESKAPEE list drafted by OMS, meaning that the increasing antibiotic resistance acquired by UPEC is and will be a serious health problem in the future. Amongst the immunogenic antigens exposed on the surface of UPEC, FimH represent a potential target for vaccine development, since it is involved in the early stages of infection. As already demonstrated, immunizations with FimH elicit functional antibodies that prevent UPEC infections even though the number of doses required to elicit a strong immune response is not optimal. In this work, we aimed to stabilize FimH as a soluble recombinant antigen exploiting the donor strand complementation mechanism by generating different chimeric constructs constituted by FimH and FimG donor strand. To explore the potential of self-assembling nanoparticles to display FimH through genetic fusion, different constructs have been computationally designed and produced. In this work a structure-based design, using available crystal structures of FimH and three different NPs was performed to generate different constructs with optimized properties. Despite the different conditions tested, all the constructs designed (single antigen or chimeric NPs), resulted to be un-soluble proteins in E. coli. To overcome this issue a mammalian expression system has been tested. Soluble antigen expression was achieved for all constructs tested in the culture supernatants. Three novel chimeric NPs have been characterized by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) confirming the presence of correctly assembled NPs displaying UPEC antigen. In vivo study has shown a higher immunogenicity of the E. coli antigen when displayed on NPs surface compared to the single recombinant antigen. The antibodies elicited by chimeric NPs showed a higher functionality in the inhibition of bacterial adhesion.

L'edilizia residenziale nell'era dell'economia circolare. Modelli e paradigmi per la rigenerazione delle periferie urbane

Il patrimonio residenziale italiano ammonta a 12,2 milioni di edifici, di cui il 57,5% ha più di 50 anni ed è stato costruito in assenza di normative specifiche, in termini di sicurezza sismica, resistenza al fuoco, efficienza energetica e accessibilità, e manifesta un’avanzata obsolescenza. Agire su questo patrimonio significa operare tramite le due macro categorie di intervento: demolizione/ricostruzione o riqualificazione energetica. Questa ricerca dottorale vuole indagare la demolizione/ricostruzione di comparti urbani periferici, costruiti tra 1945-1965, quale strategia di rigenerazione urbana, integrandola in un modello edilizio basato sui criteri dell’economia circolare. Vengono definite le caratteristiche costruttive e i principi di questo modello di progettazione ecosistemica, denominato Integrho, che coniuga i criteri di ecodesign nel ciclo di vita (Building in Layers, Design for Disassembly e il Design out Waste) con quelli di bioclimaticità e di adattabilità funzionale. Il lavoro è stato improntato secondo due livelli gerarchici, scala urbana e scala edilizia, tra loro correlate mediante quella intermedia dell’isolato, al fine di ottenere un obiettivo di natura metodologica: definire uno strumento di supporto decisionale, capace di indirizzare tra le categorie di intervento attraverso parametri oggettivi, valutati con analisi comparative speditive. Tale metodologia viene applicata al contesto di Bologna, e si fonda sulla creazione di un’approfondita base conoscitiva attraverso la catalogazione delle 8.209 pratiche edilizie di nuova costruzione presentate tra 1945 e il 1965. Tale strumento georeferenziato, contenente informazioni tipologiche, costruttive ecc., è impiegato per valutare in modo quantitativo e speditivo i consumi energetici, i materiali incorporati, gli impatti ambientali e i costi economici dei differenti scenari di intervento nel ciclo di vita. Infine, l’applicazione del modello edilizio Integrho e del paradigma Ri-Costruire per Ri-Generare ad uno degli isolati periferici selezionati, è impiegata come esemplificazione dell’intero processo, dalla fase conoscitiva a quella strumentale, al fine di verificarne l’attendibilità e l’applicabilità su larga scala.

Adaptable security in the cloud-to-thing continuum

Recent technological advancements have played a key role in seamlessly integrating cloud, edge, and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, giving rise to the Cloud-to-Thing Continuum paradigm. This cloud model connects many heterogeneous resources that generate a large amount of data and collaborate to deliver next-generation services. While it has the potential to reshape several application domains, the number of connected entities remarkably broadens the security attack surface. One of the main problems is the lack of security measures to adapt to the dynamic and evolving conditions of the Cloud-To-Thing Continuum. To address this challenge, this dissertation proposes novel adaptable security mechanisms. Adaptable security is the capability of security controls, systems, and protocols to dynamically adjust to changing conditions and scenarios. However, since the design and development of novel security mechanisms can be explored from different perspectives and levels, we place our attention on threat modeling and access control. The contributions of the thesis can be summarized as follows. First, we introduce a model-based methodology that secures the design of edge and cyber-physical systems. This solution identifies threats, security controls, and moving target defense techniques based on system features. Then, we focus on access control management. Since access control policies are subject to modifications, we evaluate how they can be efficiently shared among distributed areas, highlighting the effectiveness of distributed ledger technologies. Furthermore, we propose a risk-based authorization middleware, adjusting permissions based on real-time data, and a federated learning framework that enhances trustworthiness by weighting each client's contributions according to the quality of their partial models. Finally, since authorization revocation is another critical concern, we present an efficient revocation scheme for verifiable credentials in IoT networks, featuring decentralization, demanding minimum storage and computing capabilities. All the mechanisms have been evaluated in different conditions, proving their adaptability to the Cloud-to-Thing Continuum landscape.

Tolerance optimization with statistical approach in the CAT environment

Nowadays, product development in all its phases plays a fundamental role in the industrial chain. The need for a company to compete at high levels, the need to be quick in responding to market demands and therefore to be able to engineer the product quickly and with a high level of quality, has led to the need to get involved in new more advanced methods/ processes. In recent years, we are moving away from the concept of 2D-based design and production and approaching the concept of Model Based Definition. By using this approach, increasingly complex systems turn out to be easier to deal with but above all cheaper in obtaining them. Thanks to the Model Based Definition it is possible to share data in a lean and simple way to the entire engineering and production chain of the product. The great advantage of this approach is precisely the uniqueness of the information. In this specific thesis work, this approach has been exploited in the context of tolerances with the aid of CAD / CAT software. Tolerance analysis or dimensional variation analysis is a way to understand how sources of variation in part size and assembly constraints propagate between parts and assemblies and how that range affects the ability of a project to meet its requirements. It is critically important to note how tolerance directly affects the cost and performance of products. Worst Case Analysis (WCA) and Statistical analysis (RSS) are the two principal methods in DVA. The thesis aims to show the advantages of using statistical dimensional analysis by creating and examining various case studies, using PTC CREO software for CAD modeling and CETOL 6σ for tolerance analysis. Moreover, it will be provided a comparison between manual and 3D analysis, focusing the attention to the information lost in the 1D case. The results obtained allow us to highlight the need to use this approach from the early stages of the product design cycle.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Extraction Of Capsaicinoids From Malagueta Pepper (capsicum Frutescens L.) Assisted By Ultrasound.

Extracts from malagueta pepper (Capsicum frutescens L.) were obtained using supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) assisted by ultrasound, with carbon dioxide as solvent at 15MPa and 40°C. The SFE global yield increased up to 77% when ultrasound waves were applied, and the best condition of ultrasound-assisted extraction was ultrasound power of 360W applied during 60min. Four capsaicinoids were identified in the extracts and quantified by high performance liquid chromatography. The use of ultrasonic waves did not influence significantly the capsaicinoid profiles and the phenolic content of the extracts. However, ultrasound has enhanced the SFE rate. A model based on the broken and intact cell concept was adequate to represent the extraction kinetics and estimate the mass transfer coefficients, which were increased with ultrasound. Images obtained by field emission scanning electron microscopy showed that the action of ultrasonic waves did not cause cracks on the cell wall surface. On the other hand, ultrasound promoted disturbances in the vegetable matrix, leading to the release of extractable material on the solid surface. The effects of ultrasound were more significant on SFE from larger solid particles.

Modeling The Effects Of Temperature And Ph On The Resistance Of Alicyclobacillus Acidoterrestris In Conventional Heat-treated Fruit Beverages Through A Meta-analysis Approach.

In this work, all publicly-accessible published findings on Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris heat resistance in fruit beverages as affected by temperature and pH were compiled. Then, study characteristics (protocols, fruit and variety, °Brix, pH, temperature, heating medium, culture medium, inactivation method, strains, etc.) were extracted from the primary studies, and some of them incorporated to a meta-analysis mixed-effects linear model based on the basic Bigelow equation describing the heat resistance parameters of this bacterium. The model estimated mean D* values (time needed for one log reduction at a temperature of 95 °C and a pH of 3.5) of Alicyclobacillus in beverages of different fruits, two different concentration types, with and without bacteriocins, and with and without clarification. The zT (temperature change needed to cause one log reduction in D-values) estimated by the meta-analysis model were compared to those ('observed' zT values) reported in the primary studies, and in all cases they were within the confidence intervals of the model. The model was capable of predicting the heat resistance parameters of Alicyclobacillus in fruit beverages beyond the types available in the meta-analytical data. It is expected that the compilation of the thermal resistance of Alicyclobacillus in fruit beverages, carried out in this study, will be of utility to food quality managers in the determination or validation of the lethality of their current heat treatment processes.

Indução assimétrica 1,5-Anti na adição de enolatos de boro de metilcetonas beta-oxigenadas a aldeídos

High levels of substrate-based 1,5-stereoinduction are obtained in the boron-mediated aldol reactions of beta-oxygenated methyl ketones with achiral and chiral aldehydes. Remote induction from the boron enolates gives the 1,5-anti adducts, with the enolate pi-facial selectivity critically dependent upon the nature of the beta-alkoxy protecting group. This 1,5-anti aldol methodology has been strategically employed in the total synthesis of several natural products. At present, the origin of the high level of 1,5-anti induction obtained with the boron enolates is unclear, although a model based on a hydrogen bonding between the alkoxy oxygen and the formyl hydrogen has been recently proposed.

The full Bayesian significance test for mixture models: results in gene expression clustering

Gene clustering is a useful exploratory technique to group together genes with similar expression levels under distinct cell cycle phases or distinct conditions. It helps the biologist to identify potentially meaningful relationships between genes. In this study, we propose a clustering method based on multivariate normal mixture models, where the number of clusters is predicted via sequential hypothesis tests: at each step, the method considers a mixture model of m components (m = 2 in the first step) and tests if in fact it should be m - 1. If the hypothesis is rejected, m is increased and a new test is carried out. The method continues (increasing m) until the hypothesis is accepted. The theoretical core of the method is the full Bayesian significance test, an intuitive Bayesian approach, which needs no model complexity penalization nor positive probabilities for sharp hypotheses. Numerical experiments were based on a cDNA microarray dataset consisting of expression levels of 205 genes belonging to four functional categories, for 10 distinct strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. To analyze the method's sensitivity to data dimension, we performed principal components analysis on the original dataset and predicted the number of classes using 2 to 10 principal components. Compared to Mclust (model-based clustering), our method shows more consistent results.