Delineation of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions using wavelet-based global fuzzy cluster analysis

Identification of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions (HMRs) is necessary for various applications. Such regions are delineated by various approaches considering rainfall and temperature as two key variables. In conventional approaches, formation of regions is based on principal components (PCs)/statistics/indices determined from time series of the key variables at monthly and seasonal scales. An issue with use of PCs for regionalization is that they have to be extracted from contemporaneous records of hydrometeorological variables. Therefore, delineated regions may not be effective when the available records are limited over contemporaneous time period. A drawback associated with the use of statistics/indices is that they do not provide effective representation of the key variables when the records exhibit non-stationarity. Consequently, the resulting regions may not be effective for the desired purpose. To address these issues, a new approach is proposed in this article. The approach considers information extracted from wavelet transformations of the observed multivariate hydrometeorological time series as the basis for regionalization by global fuzzy c-means clustering procedure. The approach can account for dynamic variability in the time series and its non-stationarity (if any). Effectiveness of the proposed approach in forming HMRs is demonstrated by application to India, as there are no prior attempts to form such regions over the country. Drought severity-area-frequency (SAF) curves are constructed corresponding to each of the newly formed regions for the use in regional drought analysis, by considering standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the drought indicator.

Fuzzy State Real-Time Reservoir Operation Model for Irrigation with Gridded Rainfall Forecasts

A short-term real-time operation model with fuzzy state variables is developed for irrigation of multiple crops based on earlier work on long-term steady-state policy. The features of the model that distinguish it from the earlier work are (1) apart from inclusion of fuzziness in reservoir storage and in soil moisture of crops, spatial variations in rainfall and soil moisture of crops are included in the real-time operation model by considering gridded command area with a grid size of 0.5 degrees latitude by 0.5 degrees longitude; (2) the water allocation model and soil moisture balance equations are integrated with the real-time operation model with consideration of ponding water depth for Paddy crop; the model solution specifies reservoir releases for irrigation in a 10-day time period and allocations among the crops on a daily basis at each grid by maintaining soil moisture balance at the end of the day; and (3) the release policy is developed using forecasted daily rainfall data of each grid and is implemented for the current time period using actual 10-day inflow and actual daily rainfall of each grid. The real-time operation model is applied to Bhadra Reservoir in Karnataka, India. The results obtained using the real-time operation model are compared with those of the standard operating policy model. Inclusion of fuzziness in reservoir storage and soil moisture of crops captures hydrologic uncertainties in real time. Considerations of irrigation decisions on a daily basis and the gridded command area result in variations in allocating water to the crops, variations in actual crop evapotranspiration, and variations in soil moisture of the crops on a daily basis for each grid of the command area. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Fuzzy Approach to Rank Global Climate Models

Eleven coupled model intercomparison project 3 based global climate models are evaluated for the case study of Upper Malaprabha catchment, India for precipitation rate. Correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square deviation, and skill score are considered as performance indicators for evaluation in fuzzy environment and assumed to have equal impact on the global climate models. Fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution is used to rank global climate models. Top three positions are occupied by MIROC3, GFDL2.1 and GISS with relative closeness of 0.7867, 0.7070, and 0.7068. IPSL-CM4, NCAR-PCMI occupied the tenth and eleventh positions with relative closeness of 0.4959 and 0.4562.

Damage assessment of composite plate structures with material and measurement uncertainty

Composite materials are very useful in structural engineering particularly in weight sensitive applications. Two different test models of the same structure made from composite materials can display very different dynamic behavior due to large uncertainties associated with composite material properties. Also, composite structures can suffer from pre-existing imperfections like delaminations, voids or cracks during fabrication. In this paper, we show that modeling and material uncertainties in composite structures can cause considerable problein in damage assessment. A recently developed C-0 shear deformable locking free refined composite plate element is employed in the numerical simulations to alleviate modeling uncertainty. A qualitative estimate of the impact of modeling uncertainty on the damage detection problem is made. A robust Fuzzy Logic System (FLS) with sliding window defuzzifier is used for delamination damage detection in composite plate type structures. The FLS is designed using variations in modal frequencies due to randomness in material properties. Probabilistic analysis is performed using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) on a composite plate finite element model. It is demonstrated that the FLS shows excellent robustness in delamination detection at very high levels of randomness in input data. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continuous spectrum growth and modal instability in swirling duct flow

We present results on the stability of compressible inviscid swirling flows in an annular duct. Such flows are present in aeroengines, for example in the by-pass duct, and there are also similar flows in many aeroacoustic or aeronautical applications. The linearised Euler equations have a ('critical layer') singularity associated with pure convection of the unsteady disturbance by the mean flow, and we focus our attention on this region of the spectrum. By considering the critical layer singularity, we identify the continuous spectrum of the problem and describe how it contributes to the unsteady field. We find a very generic family of instability modes near to the continuous spectrum, whose eigenvalue wavenumbers form an infinite set and accumulate to a point in the complex plane. We study this accumulation process asymptotically, and find conditions on the flow to support such instabilities. It is also found that the continuous spectrum can cause a new type of instability, leading to algebraic growth with an exponent determined by the mean flow, given in the analysis. The exponent of algebraic growth can be arbitrarily large. Numerical demonstrations of the continuous spectrum instability, and also the modal instabilities are presented.

Modal scattering at an impedance transition in a lined flow duct

An explicit Wiener-Hopf solution is derived to describe the scattering of duct modes at a hard-soft wall impedance transition in a circular duct with uniform mean flow. Specifically, we have a circular duct r = 1, - ∞ < x < ∞ with mean flow Mach number M > 0 and a hard wall along x < 0 and a wall of impedance Z along x > 0. A minimum edge condition at x = 0 requires a continuous wall streamline r = 1 + h(x, t), no more singular than h = Ο(x1/2) for x ↓ 0. A mode, incident from x < 0, scatters at x = 0 into a series of reflected modes and a series of transmitted modes. Of particular interest is the role of a possible instability along the lined wall in combination with the edge singularity. If one of the "upstream" running modes is to be interpreted as a downstream-running instability, we have an extra degree of freedom in the Wiener-Hopf analysis that can be resolved by application of some form of Kutta condition at x = 0, for example a more stringent edge condition where h = Ο(x3/2) at the downstream side. The question of the instability requires an investigation of the modes in the complex frequency plane and therefore depends on the chosen impedance model, since Z = Z (ω) is essentially frequency dependent. The usual causality condition by Briggs and Bers appears to be not applicable here because it requires a temporal growth rate bounded for all real axial wave numbers. The alternative Crighton-Leppington criterion, however, is applicable and confirms that the suspected mode is usually unstable. In general, the effect of this Kutta condition is significant, but it is particularly large for the plane wave at low frequencies and should therefore be easily measurable. For ω → 0, the modulus fends to |R001| → (1 + M)/(1 -M) without and to 1 with Kutta condition, while the end correction tends to ∞ without and to a finite value with Kutta condition. This is exactly the same behaviour as found for reflection at a pipe exit with flow, irrespective if this is uniform or jet flow.

Pipeline Corrosion Analyzed by Fuzzy Reliability Methods

Fuzzy reliability methods are used to study the corrosion of pipelines. Three methods are used. They consist of using fracture failure modes, failure assessment diagram (FAD) and residual strength for establishing fuzzy reliability. Calculations are made by application of JC, improved GA-JC and Mente-carlo methods. Examples for oilfield injecting water pipeline show the residual strength well agree with field data. Mente-carlo methods appear to yield results that have better agreement with field data.