Overconfidence and confirmation bias: are future managers vulnerable?

Decision makers often use ‘rules of thumb’, or heuristics, to help them handling decision situations (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979b). Those cognitive shortcuts are taken by the brain to cope with complexity and time limitation of decisions, by reducing the burden of information processing (Hodgkinson et al, 1999; Newell and Simon, 1972). Although crucial for decision-making, heuristics come at the cost of occasionally sending us off course, that is, make us fall into judgment traps (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Over fifty years of psychological research has shown that heuristics can lead to systematic errors, or biases, in decision-making. This study focuses on two particularly impactful biases to decision-making – the overconfidence and confirmation biases. A specific group – top management school students and recent graduates - were subject to classic experiments to measure their level of susceptibility to those biases. This population is bound to take decision positions at companies, and eventually make decisions that will impact not only their companies but society at large. The results show that this population is strongly biased by overconfidence, but less so to the confirmation bias. No significant relationship between the level of susceptibility to the overconfidence and to the confirmation bias was found.

Bias from ignoring price dispersion in demand estimation

Consumers often pay different prices for the same product bought in the same store at the same time. However, the demand estimation literature has ignored that fact using, instead, aggregate measures such as the “list” or average price. In this paper we show that this will lead to biased price coefficients. Furthermore, we perform simple comparative statics simulation exercises for the logit and random coefficient models. In the “list” price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers facing discount prices is higher and when consumers are more unwilling to buy the product so that they almost only do it when facing discount. In the average price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers that have access to discount are similar to the ones that do not have access and when consumers willingness to buy is very dependent on idiosyncratic shocks. Also bias is less problematic in the average price case in markets with a lot of bargain deals, so that prices are as good as individual. We conclude by proposing ways that the econometrician can reduce this bias using different information that he may have available.

Home bias no mercado de capitais brasileiro : um estudo sobre a custódia de investidores em ações

A presente dissertação apresenta uma análise da concentração do portfólio de a-ções de investidores brasileiros nas próprias empresas onde trabalham com o intuito de observar se o Home Bias se aplica à amostra analisada. Nosso estudo foi reali-zado com uma amostra extraída da custódia de 86 clientes de uma corretora de va-lores mobiliários, sendo estes dados reais de mercado. Restringimos a seleção da amostra de forma que metade fosse de clientes que trabalham em empresas de ca-pital aberto e a outra metade não. Foi feita análise cross section de quanto os inves-tidores alocam em ações das empresas para a qual trabalham e verificou-se qual o percentual desta participação em seus portfólios, em comparação a uma amostra de controle de investidores que não trabalham nesta mesma empresa. Além destas a-nálises, separamos a amostra pelo valor total do portfólio e realizamos os mesmos estudos com estes dois grupos diferentes da amostra. Como uma análise de robus-tez, identificamos empresas listadas que não adotam a remuneração com ações como uma sub-amostra do estudo. Como resultado, encontramos evidências de que os funcionários investem significativamente mais (seja em proporção do portfólio ou em valores) em ações das empresas onde trabalham em relação aos demais inves-tidores, evidenciando um viés de familiaridade na tomada de decisão de investimen-tos.

Applicability of non-pharmacological strategies for pain relief in parturient: integrative review

MORAES, Maísa Suares Teixeira; ROLIM, Lariane Thays Albuquerque; ENDERS, Bertha Cruz; FARIAS, Glaucea Maciel de; DAVIM, Rejane Marie Barbosa. Applicability of non-pharmacological strategies for pain relief in parturient: integrative review. Revista de Enfermagem UFPE on line, v.4, n.especial, p.131-136, May/June 2010. Disponivel em:< http://www.ufpe.br/revistaenfermagem/index.php/revista/>.

Pre-emptive epidural ketamine or S(+)-ketamine in post-incisional pain in dogs: A comparative study

Objective-To compare the pre-emptive analgesic effects of epidural ketamine or S(+)-ketamine on post-incisional hyperalgesia.Study Design-Prospective randomized study.Animals-Twenty-four mongrel dogs (1-5 years, weighing 11.9 +/- 1.8 kg).Methods-Dogs were anesthetized with propofol (5 mg/kg intravenously) and a lumbosacral epidural catheter was placed. Dogs were randomly allocated to 3 groups, each with 8 dogs. The control group (CG) was administered saline solution (0.3 mL/kg); the ketamine group (KG) ketamine (0.6 mg/kg); and the S(+)-ketamine group (SG) S(+)-ketamine (0.6 mg/kg). The final volume was adjusted to 0.3 mL/kg in all groups. Five minutes after the epidural injection a surgical incision was made in the common pad of the right hind limb and was immediately closed with simple interrupted nylon suture. Respiratory (RR) and heart (HR) rates, rectal temperature (7, sedation (S), lameness score, and mechanical nociceptive threshold by von Frey filaments were evaluated before the propofol anesthesia and at 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, and 90 minutes and then at 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, and 24 hours after epidural injection.Results-There were no differences in RR, HR, T, or S between groups. Motor blockade of the hind limbs was observed during 20 +/- 3.6 minutes in KG and during 30.6 +/- 7.5 minutes in SG (mean SD). Mechanical force applied to obtain an aversive response was higher from 45 minutes to 12 hours in KG and from 60 to 90 minutes in SG, when compared with CG.Conclusions-Pre-emptive epidural ketamine induced no alterations in RR and FIR, and reduced post-incisional hyperalgesia for a longer time than did S(+) ketamine.Clinical Relevance-Although anesthetic and analgesic potency of S(+) ketamine is twice that of ketamine, the racemic form is seemingly better for post-incisional hyperalgesia. (C) Copyright 2004 by the American College of Veterinary Surgeons.

Comparison of different analysis techniques for the determination of muscle onset in individuals with patellofemoral pain syndrome

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effect of target bias on magnetic field enhanced plasma immersion ion implantation

Recent studies have demonstrated that sheath dynamics in plasma immersion ion implantation (PIII) is significantly affected by an external magnetic field, especially in the case when the magnetic field is parallel to the workpiece surface or intersects it at small angles. In this work we report the results from two-dimensional, particle-in-cell (PIC) computer simulations of magnetic field enhanced plasma immersion implantation system at different bias voltages. The simulations begin with initial low-density nitrogen plasma, which extends with uniform density through a grounded cylindrical chamber. Negative bias voltage is applied to a cylindrical target located on the axis of the vacuum chamber. An axial magnetic field is created by a solenoid installed inside the target holder. A set of simulations at a fixed magnetic field of 0.0025 T at the target surface is performed. Secondary electron emission from the target subjected to ion bombardment is also included. It is found that the plasma density around the cylindrical target increases because of intense background gas ionization by the electrons drifting in the crossed E x B fields. Suppression of the sheath expansion and increase of the implantation current density in front of the high-density plasma region are observed. The effect of target bias on the sheath dynamics and implantation current of the magnetic field enhanced PIII is discussed. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electromyographic preactivation pattern of the gluteus medius during weight-bearing functional tasks in women with and without anterior knee pain

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Topical (S)-ketamine for pain management of postherpetic neuralgia

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Refinement and initial validation of a multidimensional composite scale for use in assessing acute postoperative pain in cats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Publication Bias in Five Dental Implant Journals: An Observation from 2005 to 2009

Purpose: This study evaluated possible publication bias and its related factors in implant-related research over time. Materials and Methods: Articles published in Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, Clinical Oral Implants Research, Implant Dentistry, Journal of Oral Implantology, and The International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants between 2005 and 2009 were reviewed. Nonoriginal articles were excluded. For each article included, study outcome, extramural funding source, type of study, and geographic origin were recorded. Descriptive and analytic statistics (alpha = .05), including the chi-square test and logistic regression analysis, were performed where appropriate. Results: From a total of 2,085 articles, 1,503 met the inclusion criteria. of the articles analyzed, 1,226 (81.6%), 160 (10.6%), and 117 (7.8%) articles reported positive, negative, and neutral outcomes, respectively. In vitro studies, studies from Asia, and funded animal studies were more likely to report positive outcomes compared to others (P = .02, P < .0001, and P = .009, respectively). Industry-funded studies represented the lowest frequency of positive outcomes versus studies funded by other sources. Conclusions: There were a high number of implant-related studies reporting positive outcomes in the five selected journals. Some selected factors were associated with positive outcome bias. In general, funding was not associated with a positive outcome, except for animal studies. Industry-supported research did not show any association with the publication of positive outcomes. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2011;26:1024-1032

Maxillo-mandibular counter-clockwise rotation and mandibular advancement with TMJ Concepts (R) total joint prostheses Part III - Pain and dysfunction outcomes

47 end-stage TMJ patients with high occlusal plane angulation, treated with TMJ custom-fitted total joint prostheses and simultaneous maxillo-mandibular counter-clockwise rotation were evaluated for pain and dysfunction presurgery (T1) and at the longest follow-up (T2). Patients subjectively rated their facial pain/headache, TMJ pain, jaw function, diet and disability. Objective functional changes were determined by measuring maximum interincisal opening (MIO) and laterotrusive movements. Patients were divided according to the number of previous failed TMJ surgeries: Group 1 (0-1), Group 2 (2 or more). Significant subjective pain and dysfunction improvements (37-52%) were observed (<0.001). MIO increased 14% but lateral excursion decreased 60%. The groups presented similar absolute changes, but Group 2 showed more dysfunction at T1 and T2. For patients who did not receive fat grafts around the prostheses and had previous failure of proplast/teflon and or silastic TMJ implants, more than half required surgery for TMJ debridement and removal of foreign body giant cell reaction and heterotopic bone formation. End-stage TMJ patients can be treated in one operation with TMJ custom-made total joint prostheses and maxillo-mandibular counter-clockwise rotation, for correction of dentofacial deformity and improvement in pain and TMJ dysfunction; Group 1 patients had better results than Group 2 patients.

Evaluation of the RB-RB/LB-LB mnemonic rule for recording optimally projected intraoral images of dental implants: an in vitro study

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate a simple mnemonic rule (the RB-RB/LB-LB rule) for recording intra-oral radiographs with optimal projection for the control of dental implants.Methods: 30 third-year dental students received a short lesson in the RB-RB/LB-LB mnemonic rule. The rule is as follows: if right blur then raise beam (RB-RB), i.e. if implant threads are blurred at the right side of the implant, the X-ray beam direction must be raised towards the ceiling to obtain sharp threads on both implant sides; if left blur then lower beam (LB-LB), i.e. if implant threads are blurred at the left side of the implant, the X-ray beam direction must be lowered towards the floor to obtain sharp threads on both implant sides. Intra-oral radiographs of four screw-type implants placed with different inclination in a Frasaco upper or lower jaw dental model (Frasaco GmbH, Tettnang, Germany) were recorded. The students were unaware of the inclination of the implants and were instructed to re-expose each implant, implementing the mnemonic rule, until an image of the implant with acceptable quality (subjectively judged by the instructor) was obtained. Subsequently, each radiograph was blindly assessed with respect to sharpness of the implant threads and assigned to one of four quality categories: (1) perfect, (2) not perfect, but clinically acceptable, (3) not acceptable and (4) hopeless.Results: For all implants, from one non-perfect exposure to the following, a higher score was obtained in 64% of the cases, 28% received the same score and 8% obtained a lower score. Only a small variation was observed among exposures of implants with different inclination. on average, two exposures per implant (range: one to eight exposures) were needed to obtain a clinically acceptable image.Conclusion: The RB-RB/LB-LB mnemonic rule for recording intra-oral radiographs of dental implants with a correct projection was easy to implement by inexperienced examiners. Dentomaxillofacial Radiology (2012) 41, 298-304. doi: 10.1259/dmfr/20861598

Postoperative periodontal pain prevention using two dexamethasone medication protocols: A double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)