Riconversione degli impianti saccariferi per la valorizzazione della filiera agro-energetica: analisi di impatto sul comprensorio agricolo

Il presente lavoro trae origine dagli obiettivi e dalle relative misure applicative della riforma dell’OCM zucchero del 2006 e nello specifico dal Piano nazionale per la razionalizzazione e riconversione della produzione bieticolo-saccarifera approvato dal MIPAF nel 2007. Lo studio riguarda la riconversione dello zuccherificio di Finale Emilia (MO), di appartenenza del Gruppo bieticolo-saccarifero Co.Pro.B, in un impianto di generazione di energia elettrica e termica che utilizza biomassa di origine agricola per la combustione diretta. L'alimentazione avviene principalmente dalla coltivazione dedicata del sorgo da fibra (Sorghum bicolor), integrata con risorse agro-forestali. Lo studio mostra la necessità di coltivazione di 4.400 ettari di sorgo da fibra con una produzione annua di circa 97.000 t di prodotto al 75% di sostanza secca necessari per l’alimentazione della centrale a biomassa. L’obiettivo é quello di valutare l’impatto della nuova coltura energetica sul comprensorio agricolo e sulla economia dell’impresa agricola. La metodologia adottata si basa sulla simulazione di modelli aziendali di programmazione lineare che prevedono l’inserimento del sorgo da fibra come coltura energetica nel piano ottimo delle aziende considerate. I modelli predisposti sono stati calibrati su aziende RICA al fine di riprodurre riparti medi reali su tre tipologie dimensionali rappresentative: azienda piccola entro i 20 ha, media da 20 a 50 ha e grande oltre i 50 ha. La superficie di entrata a livello aziendale, se rapportata alla rappresentatività delle aziende dell’area di studio, risulta insufficiente per soddisfare la richiesta di approvvigionamento dell’impianto a biomassa. Infatti con tale incremento la superficie di coltivazione nel comprensorio si attesta sui 2.500 ettari circa contro i 4.400 necessari alla centrale. Lo studio mostra pertanto che occorre un incentivo superiore, di circa 80-90 €/ha, per soddisfare la richiesta della superficie colturale a livello di territorio. A questi livelli, la disponibilità della coltura energetica sul comprensorio risulta circa 9.500 ettari.

Three Essays in Economics of Gender

During recent decades, economists' interest in gender-related issues has risen. Researchers aim to show how economic theory can be applied to gender related topics such as peer effect, labor market outcomes, and education. This dissertation aims to contribute to our understandings of the interaction, inequality and sources of differences across genders, and it consists of three empirical papers in the research area of gender economics. The aim of the first paper ("Separating gender composition effect from peer effects in education") is to demonstrate the importance of considering endogenous peer effects in order to identify gender composition effect. This fact is analytically illustrated by employing Manski's (1993) linear-in-means model. The paper derives an innovative solution to the simultaneous identification of endogenous and exogenous peer effects: gender composition effect of interest is estimated from auxiliary reduced-form estimates after identifying the endogenous peer effect by using Graham (2008) variance restriction method. The paper applies this methodology to two different data sets from American and Italian schools. The motivation of the second paper ("Gender differences in vulnerability to an economic crisis") is to analyze the different effect of recent economic crisis on the labor market outcome of men and women. Using triple differences method (before-after crisis, harder-milder hit sectors, men-women) the paper used British data at the occupation level and shows that men suffer more than women in terms of probability of losing their job. Several explanations for the findings are proposed. The third paper ("Gender gap in educational outcome") is concerned with a controversial academic debate on the existence, degree and origin of the gender gap in test scores. The existence of a gap both in mean scores and the variability around the mean is documented and analyzed. The origins of the gap are investigated by looking at wide range of possible explanations.

Mathematical Optimization Applied to Thermal and Electrical Energy Systems

This Thesis aims at building and discussing mathematical models applications focused on Energy problems, both on the thermal and electrical side. The objective is to show how mathematical programming techniques developed within Operational Research can give useful answers in the Energy Sector, how they can provide tools to support decision making processes of Companies operating in the Energy production and distribution and how they can be successfully used to make simulations and sensitivity analyses to better understand the state of the art and convenience of a particular technology by comparing it with the available alternatives. The first part discusses the fundamental mathematical background followed by a comprehensive literature review about mathematical modelling in the Energy Sector. The second part presents mathematical models for the District Heating strategic network design and incremental network design. The objective is the selection of an optimal set of new users to be connected to an existing thermal network, maximizing revenues, minimizing infrastructure and operational costs and taking into account the main technical requirements of the real world application. Results on real and randomly generated benchmark networks are discussed with particular attention to instances characterized by big networks dimensions. The third part is devoted to the development of linear programming models for optimal battery operation in off-grid solar power schemes, with consideration of battery degradation. The key contribution of this work is the inclusion of battery degradation costs in the optimisation models. As available data on relating degradation costs to the nature of charge/discharge cycles are limited, we concentrate on investigating the sensitivity of operational patterns to the degradation cost structure. The objective is to investigate the combination of battery costs and performance at which such systems become economic. We also investigate how the system design should change when battery degradation is taken into account.

Accurate Predictions of Water Cluster Formation, (H2O)n=2-10

An efficient mixed molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics model has been applied to the water cluster system. The use of the MP2 method and correlation consistent basis sets, with appropriate correction for BSSE, allows for the accurate calculation of electronic and free energies for the formation of clusters of 2−10 water molecules. This approach reveals new low energy conformers for (H2O)n=7,9,10. The water heptamer conformers comprise five different structural motifs ranging from a three-dimensional prism to a quasi-planar book structure. A prism-like structure is favored energetically at low temperatures, but a chair-like structure is the global Gibbs free energy minimum past 200 K. The water nonamers exhibit less complexity with all the low energy structures shaped like a prism. The decamer has 30 conformers that are within 2 kcal/mol of the Gibbs free energy minimum structure at 298 K. These structures are categorized into four conformer classes, and a pentagonal prism is the most stable structure from 0 to 320 K. Results can be used as benchmark values for empirical water models and density functionals, and the method can be applied to larger water clusters.

Atmospheric Implications for Formation of Clusters of Ammonium and 1−10 Water Molecules

A mixed molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics model has been applied to the ammonium/water clustering system. The use of the high level MP2 calculation method and correlated basis sets, such as aug-cc-pVDZ and aug-cc-pVTZ, lends confidence in the accuracy of the extrapolated energies. These calculations provide electronic and free energies for the formation of clusters of ammonium and 1−10 water molecules at two different temperatures. Structures and thermodynamic values are in good agreement with previous experimental and theoretical results. The estimated concentration of these clusters in the troposphere was calculated using atmospheric amounts of ammonium and water. Results show the favorability of forming these clusters and implications for ion-induced nucleation in the atmosphere.

Accurate Predictions of Water Cluster Formation, (H2O)n=2−10

An efficient mixed molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics model has been applied to the water cluster system. The use of the MP2 method and correlation consistent basis sets, with appropriate correction for BSSE, allows for the accurate calculation of electronic and free energies for the formation of clusters of 2−10 water molecules. This approach reveals new low energy conformers for (H2O)n=7,9,10. The water heptamer conformers comprise five different structural motifs ranging from a three-dimensional prism to a quasi-planar book structure. A prism-like structure is favored energetically at low temperatures, but a chair-like structure is the global Gibbs free energy minimum past 200 K. The water nonamers exhibit less complexity with all the low energy structures shaped like a prism. The decamer has 30 conformers that are within 2 kcal/mol of the Gibbs free energy minimum structure at 298 K. These structures are categorized into four conformer classes, and a pentagonal prism is the most stable structure from 0 to 320 K. Results can be used as benchmark values for empirical water models and density functionals, and the method can be applied to larger water clusters.

Arterial stiffness depends on serum ionized calcium levels during dialysis with regional citrate anticoagulation

Hemodynamic effects related to changes in serum ionized calcium (iCa) are difficult to determine during conventional hemodialysis (HD) using a fixed dialysate concentration of calcium. Regional citrate anticoagulation (RCA) allows the study of the effects of predefined iCa changes on arterial stiffness and blood pressure (BP) during a single dialysis session. In a crossover study, 15 patients with end-stage renal disease underwent two HD sessions with RCA. Each session was divided into two study phases in which iCa was titrated either to 0.8-1.0 mm or to 1.1-1.4 mm. The sequence of phases was randomly chosen and alternated for the second session. After reaching a stable iCa level, pulse wave velocity (PWV), arterial BP, and heart rate were measured. iCa levels were modified during sequence 1 (iCa low-high) from a predialysis baseline value of 1.15 ± 0.09 mm, first to 0.92 ± 0.05 mm (time point 1; P < 0.001 vs. baseline) and then to 1.18 ± 0.05 (time point 2; ns). During sequence 2 (iCa high-low), iCa levels were modified from 1.15 ± 0.12 mm first to 1.20 ± 0.05 mm (time point 1; ns vs. baseline) and then to 0.93 ± 0.03 (time point 2; P < 0.001). Assuming a basic linear repeated measures model, PWV was positively related to iCa levels (P < 0.03) independent of systolic or diastolic BP, heart rate, or ultrafiltration rate. PWV is closely related to acute changes in serum iCa levels in HD patients using RCA. RCA provides an interesting opportunity to study the effects of acute iCa changes during one dialysis procedure.

SNA--a toolbox for the stoichiometric analysis of metabolic networks

BACKGROUND: Despite recent algorithmic and conceptual progress, the stoichiometric network analysis of large metabolic models remains a computationally challenging problem. RESULTS: SNA is a interactive, high performance toolbox for analysing the possible steady state behaviour of metabolic networks by computing the generating and elementary vectors of their flux and conversions cones. It also supports analysing the steady states by linear programming. The toolbox is implemented mainly in Mathematica and returns numerically exact results. It is available under an open source license from: http://bioinformatics.org/project/?group_id=546. CONCLUSION: Thanks to its performance and modular design, SNA is demonstrably useful in analysing genome scale metabolic networks. Further, the integration into Mathematica provides a very flexible environment for the subsequent analysis and interpretation of the results.

Immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy in hepatitis C virus-coinfected adults in a population-based HIV/AIDS treatment program

BACKGROUND: We sought to characterize the impact that hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has on CD4 cells during the first 48 weeks of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in previously ART-naive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. METHODS: The HIV/AIDS Drug Treatment Programme at the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS distributes all ART in this Canadian province. Eligible individuals were those whose first-ever ART included 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and either a protease inhibitor or a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and who had a documented positive result for HCV antibody testing. Outcomes were binary events (time to an increase of > or = 75 CD4 cells/mm3 or an increase of > or = 10% in the percentage of CD4 cells in the total T cell population [CD4 cell fraction]) and continuous repeated measures. Statistical analyses used parametric and nonparametric methods, including multivariate mixed-effects linear regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: Of 1186 eligible patients, 606 (51%) were positive and 580 (49%) were negative for HCV antibodies. HCV antibody-positive patients were slower to have an absolute (P<.001) and a fraction (P = .02) CD4 cell event. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis (controlling for age, sex, baseline absolute CD4 cell count, baseline pVL, type of ART initiated, AIDS diagnosis at baseline, adherence to ART regimen, and number of CD4 cell measurements), HCV antibody-positive patients were less likely to have an absolute CD4 cell event (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.84 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.98]) and somewhat less likely to have a CD4 cell fraction event (AHR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.70-1.14]) than HCV antibody-negative patients. In multivariate mixed-effects linear regression analysis, HCV antibody-negative patients had increases of an average of 75 cells in the absolute CD4 cell count and 4.4% in the CD4 cell fraction, compared with 20 cells and 1.1% in HCV antibody-positive patients, during the first 48 weeks of ART, after adjustment for time-updated pVL, number of CD4 cell measurements, and other factors. CONCLUSION: HCV antibody-positive HIV-infected patients may have an altered immunologic response to ART.

Labeling the human skeleton with 41Ca to assess changes in bone calcium metabolism

Bone research is limited by the methods available for detecting changes in bone metabolism. While dual X-ray absorptiometry is rather insensitive, biochemical markers are subject to significant intra-individual variation. In the study presented here, we evaluated the isotopic labeling of bone using 41Ca, a long-lived radiotracer, as an alternative approach. After successful labeling of the skeleton, changes in the systematics of urinary 41Ca excretion are expected to directly reflect changes in bone Ca metabolism. A minute amount of 41Ca (100 nCi) was administered orally to 22 postmenopausal women. Kinetics of tracer excretion were assessed by monitoring changes in urinary 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratios up to 700 days post-dosing using accelerator mass spectrometry and resonance ionization mass spectrometry. Isotopic labeling of the skeleton was evaluated by two different approaches: (i) urinary 41Ca data were fitted to an established function consisting of an exponential term and a power law term for each individual; (ii) 41Ca data were analyzed by population pharmacokinetic (NONMEM) analysis to identify a compartmental model that describes urinary 41Ca tracer kinetics. A linear three-compartment model with a central compartment and two sequential peripheral compartments was found to best fit the 41Ca data. Fits based on the use of the combined exponential/power law function describing urinary tracer excretion showed substantially higher deviations between predicted and measured values than fits based on the compartmental modeling approach. By establishing the urinary 41Ca excretion pattern using data points up to day 500 and extrapolating these curves up to day 700, it was found that the calculated 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratios in urine were significantly lower than the observed 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratios for both techniques. Compartmental analysis can overcome this limitation. By identifying relative changes in transfer rates between compartments in response to an intervention, inaccuracies in the underlying model cancel out. Changes in tracer distribution between compartments were modeled based on identified kinetic parameters. While changes in bone formation and resorption can, in principle, be assessed by monitoring urinary 41Ca excretion over the first few weeks post-dosing, assessment of an intervention effect is more reliable approximately 150 days post-dosing when excreted tracer originates mainly from bone.

Evaluation of 41calcium as a new approach to assess changes in bone metabolism: effect of a bisphosphonate intervention in postmenopausal women with low bone mass

A new technique was evaluated to identify changes in bone metabolism directly at high sensitivity through isotopic labeling of bone Ca. Six women with low BMD were labeled with 41Ca up to 700 days and treated for 6 mo with risedronate. Effect of treatment on bone could be identified using 41Ca after 4-8 wk in each individual. INTRODUCTION: Isotopic labeling of bone using 41Ca, a long-living radiotracer, has been proposed as an alternative approach for measuring changes in bone metabolism to overcome current limitations of available techniques. After isotopic labeling of bone, changes in urinary 41Ca excretion reflect changes in bone Ca balance. The aim of this study was to validate this new technique against established measures. Changes in bone Ca balance were induced by giving a bisphosphonate. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Six postmenopausal women with diagnosed osteopenia/osteoporosis received a single oral dose of 100 nCi 41Ca for skeleton labeling. Urinary 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratios were monitored by accelerator mass spectrometry up to 700 days after the labeling process. Subjects received 35 mg risedronate per week for 6 mo. Effect of treatment was monitored using the 41Ca signal in urine and parallel measurements of BMD by DXA and biochemical markers of bone metabolism in urine and blood. RESULTS: Positive response to treatment was confirmed by BMD measurements, which increased for spine by +3.0% (p = 0.01) but not for hip. Bone formation markers decreased by -36% for bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP; p = 0.002) and -59% for procollagen type I propeptides (PINP; p = 0.001). Urinary deoxypyridinoline (DPD) and pyridinoline (PYD) were reduced by -21% (p = 0.019) and -23% (p = 0.009), respectively, whereas serum and urinary carboxy-terminal teleopeptides (CTXs) were reduced by -60% (p = 0.001) and -57.0% (p = 0.001), respectively. Changes in urinary 41Ca excretion paralleled findings for conventional techniques. The urinary 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratio was shifted by -47 +/- 10% by the intervention. Population pharmacokinetic analysis (NONMEM) of the 41Ca data using a linear three-compartment model showed that bisphosphonate treatment reduced Ca transfer rates between the slowly exchanging compartment (bone) and the intermediate fast exchanging compartment by 56% (95% CI: 45-58%). CONCLUSIONS: Isotopic labeling of bone using 41Ca can facilitate human trials in bone research by shortening of intervention periods, lowering subject numbers, and having easier conduct of cross-over studies compared with conventional techniques.

Revenue Management in Make-To-Order Manufacturing: Case Study of Capacity Control at ThyssenKrupp VDM

While revenue management (RM) is traditionally considered a tool of service operations, RM shows considerable potential for application in manufacturing operations. The typical challenges in make-to-order manufacturing are fixed manufacturing capacities and a great variety in offered products, going along with pronounced fluctuations in demand and profitability. Since Harris and Pinder in the mid-90s, numerous papers have furthered the understanding of RM theory in this environment. Nevertheless, results to be expected from applying the developed methods to a practical industry setting have yet to be reported. To this end, this paper investigates a possible application of RM at ThyssenKrupp VDM, leading to considerable improvements in several areas.

Development and validation of energy expenditure prediction models based on GT3X accelerometer data in 5- to 9-year-old children

Background: Accelerometry has been established as an objective method that can be used to assess physical activity behavior in large groups. The purpose of the current study was to provide a validated equation to translate accelerometer counts of the triaxial GT3X into energy expenditure in young children. Methods: Thirty-two children aged 5–9 years performed locomotor and play activities that are typical for their age group. Children wore a GT3X accelerometer and their energy expenditure was measured with indirect calorimetry. Twenty-one children were randomly selected to serve as development group. A cubic 2-regression model involving separate equations for locomotor and play activities was developed on the basis of model fit. It was then validated using data of the remaining children and compared with a linear 2-regression model and a linear 1-regression model. Results: All 3 regression models produced strong correlations between predicted and measured MET values. Agreement was acceptable for the cubic model and good for both linear regression approaches. Conclusions: The current linear 1-regression model provides valid estimates of energy expenditure for ActiGraph GT3X data for 5- to 9-year-old children and shows equal or better predictive validity than a cubic or a linear 2-regression model.

An application of combinatorial optimization in the printing industry

Offset printing is a common method to produce large amounts of printed matter. We consider a real-world offset printing process that is used to imprint customer-specific designs on napkin pouches. The print- ing technology used yields a number of specific constraints. The planning problem consists of allocating designs to printing-plate slots such that the given customer demand for each design is fulfilled, all technologi- cal and organizational constraints are met and the total overproduction and setup costs are minimized. We formulate this planning problem as a mixed-binary linear program, and we develop a multi-pass matching-based savings heuristic. We report computational results for a set of problem instances devised from real-world data.

Planning of a make-to-order production process in the printing industry

Offset printing is a common method to produce large amounts of printed matter. We consider a real-world offset printing process that is used to imprint customer-specific designs on napkin pouches. The production equipment used gives rise to various technological constraints. The planning problem consists of allocating designs to printing-plate slots such that the given customer demand for each design is fulfilled, all technological and organizational constraints are met and the total overproduction and setup costs are minimized. We formulate this planning problem as a mixed-binary linear program, and we develop a multi-pass matching-based savings heuristic. We report computational results for a set of problem instances devised from real-world data.