Diaspora return of transnational migrants to Trinidad and Tobago: the additional contributions of social remittances

Current enthusiasm among development stakeholders for the enticement and recruitment ‘back home’ of skilled Diaspora migrants has predominantly revolved around how human capital gains and transfers of capital, knowledge, technical skills and workplace entrepreneurialism and innovation can be facilitated. In this article, we widen the conceptual basis of this dimension of the migration–development nexus, by bringing the additional contributions of the social remittances that return migrants offer, and practice, into the mix. As evidence, the article examines how and why a sample of ‘middling’1 Trinidadian transnational professionals engage in social development activities and why experiences vary widely on their return. Their views are appraised through the verbal optic of their narratives, which they shared with us during in-depth interviews. Several among these Diaspora returnees appear to be agents for the diffusion and infusion of social capital and non-monetary, social remittances in the homeland to which they have returned in mid-life and mid-career. Others are disappointed, or frustrated, and have their hopes dashed, leading to thoughts of re-migration, or re-return. Despite such difficulties, we find that family belonging and national pride strengthens many of these return migrants’ development potential through their deeply felt commitments to local ‘capacity-building’.

A method of formulating energy load profile for domestic buildings in the UK

There are varieties of physical and behavioral factors to determine energy demand load profile. The attainment of the optimum mix of measures and renewable energy system deployment requires a simple method suitable for using at the early design stage. A simple method of formulating load profile (SMLP) for UK domestic buildings has been presented in this paper. Domestic space heating load profile for different types of houses have been produced using thermal dynamic model which has been developed using thermal resistant network method. The daily breakdown energy demand load profile of appliance, domestic hot water and space heating can be predicted using this method. The method can produce daily load profile from individual house to urban community. It is suitable to be used at Renewable energy system strategic design stage.

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratio analysis of freshwater, brackish and marine fish from Belgian archaeological sites (1st and 2nd millennium AD)

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios were measured in 157 fish bone collagen samples from 15 different archaeological sites in Belgium which ranged in ages from the 3rd to the 18th c. AD. Due to diagenetic contamination of the burial environment, only 63 specimens produced results with suitable C:N ratios (2.9–3.6). The selected bones encompass a wide spectrum of freshwater, brackish, and marine taxa (N = 18), and this is reflected in the δ13C results (−28.2‰ to −12.9%). The freshwater fish have δ13C values that range from −28.2‰ to −20.2‰, while the marine fish cluster between −15.4‰ and −13.0‰. Eel, a catadromous species (mostly living in freshwater but migrating into the sea to spawn), plots between −24.1‰ and −17.7‰, and the anadromous fish (living in marine environments but migrating into freshwater to spawn) show a mix of freshwater and marine isotopic signatures. The δ15N results also have a large range (7.2‰ to 16.7‰) indicating that these fish were feeding at many different trophic levels in these diverse aquatic environments. The aim of this research is the isotopic characterization of archaeological fish species (ecology, trophic level, migration patterns) and to determine intra-species variation within and between fish populations differing in time and location. Due to the previous lack of archaeological fish isotope data from Northern Europe and Belgium in particular, these results serve as an important ecological backdrop for the future isotopic reconstruction of the diet of human populations dating from the historical period (1st and 2nd millennium AD), where there is zooarchaeological and historical evidence for an increased consumption of marine fish.

Alternatives to Sedum on green roofs: Can broad leaf perennial plants offer better ‘cooling service’?

Green roof plants alter the microclimate of building roofs and may improve roof insulation. They act by providing cooling by shading, but also through transpiration of water through their stomata. However, leaf surfaces can become warmer when plants close the stomata and decrease water loss in response to drying substrate (typically associated with green roofs during summers), also reducing transpirational cooling. By using a range of contrasting plant types (Sedum mix – an industry green roof ‘standard’, Stachys byzantina, Bergenia cordifolia and Hedera hibernica) we tested the hypothesis that plants differ in their ‘cooling potential’. We firstly examined how leaf morphology influenced leaf temperature and how drying substrate altered that response. Secondly, we investigated the relationship between leaf surface temperatures and the air temperatures immediately above the canopies (i.e. potential to provide aerial cooling). Finally we measured how the plant type influenced the substrate temperature below the canopy (i.e. potential for building cooling). In our experiments Stachys outperformed the other species in terms of leaf surface cooling (even in drying substrate, e.g. 5 oC cooler compared with Sedum), substrate cooling beneath its canopy (up to 12 oC) and even - during short intervals over hottest still periods - the air above the canopy (up to 1 oC, when soil moisture was not limited). We suggest that the choice of plant species on green roofs should not be entirely dictated by what survives on the shallow substrates of extensive systems, but consideration should be given to supporting those species providing the greatest eco-system service potential.

Likelihood-free estimation of model evidence

Statistical methods of inference typically require the likelihood function to be computable in a reasonable amount of time. The class of “likelihood-free” methods termed Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is able to eliminate this requirement, replacing the evaluation of the likelihood with simulation from it. Likelihood-free methods have gained in efficiency and popularity in the past few years, following their integration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) in order to better explore the parameter space. They have been applied primarily to estimating the parameters of a given model, but can also be used to compare models. Here we present novel likelihood-free approaches to model comparison, based upon the independent estimation of the evidence of each model under study. Key advantages of these approaches over previous techniques are that they allow the exploitation of MCMC or SMC algorithms for exploring the parameter space, and that they do not require a sampler able to mix between models. We validate the proposed methods using a simple exponential family problem before providing a realistic problem from human population genetics: the comparison of different demographic models based upon genetic data from the Y chromosome.

The gender gap in real estate sales: negotiation skill or agent selection?

This study examines differences in net selling price for residential real estate across male and female agents. A sample of 2,020 home sales transactions from Fulton County, Georgia are analyzed in a two-stage least squares, geospatial autoregressive corrected, semi-log hedonic model to test for gender and gender selection effects. Although agent gender seems to play a role in naïve models, its role becomes inconclusive as variables controlling for possible price and time on market expectations of the buyers and sellers are introduced to the models. Clear differences in real estate sales prices, time on market, and agent incomes across genders are unlikely due to differences in negotiation performance between genders or the mix of genders in a two-agent negotiation. The evidence suggests an interesting alternative to agent performance: that buyers and sellers with different reservation price and time on market expectations, such as those selling foreclosure homes, tend to select agents along gender lines.

Predicting natural ventilation in a two-zone building driven by combined forces.

Natural ventilation relies on less controllable natural forces so that it needs more artificial control, and thus its prediction, design and analysis become more important. This paper presents both theoretical and numerical simulations for predicting the natural ventilation flow in a two-zone building with multiple openings which is subjected to the combined natural forces. To our knowledge, this is the first analytical solutions obtained so far for a building with more than one zones and in each zone with possibly more than 2 openings. The analytical solution offers a possibility for validating a multi-zone airflow program. A computer program MIX is employed to conduct the numerical simulation. Good agreement is achieved. Different airflow modes are identified and some design recommendations are also provided.

Nuclear fuel cycles: interfaces with the environment

The waste materials generated in the nuclear fuel cycle are very varied,ranging from the tailings arising from mining and processing uranium ore, depleted uranium in a range of chemical forms, to a range of process wastes of differing activities and properties. Indeed, the wastes generated are intimately linked to the options selected in operating the nuclear fuel cycle, most obviously to the management of spent fuel. An open fuel cycle implies the disposal of highly radioactive spent fuel, whereas a closed fuel cycle generates a complex array of waste streams. On the other hand, a closed fuel cycle offers options for waste management, for example reduction in highly active waste volume, decreased radiotoxicity, and removal of fissile material. Many technological options have been proposed or explored, and each brings its own particular mix of wastes and environmental challenges.

Insight into the prebiotic concept: lessons from an exploratory, double blind intervention study with inulin-type fructans in obese women

Objective To highlight the contribution of the gut microbiota to the modulation of host metabolism by dietary inulin-type fructans (ITF prebiotics) in obese women. Methods A double blind, placebo controlled, intervention study was performed with 30 obese women treated with ITF prebiotics (inulin/oligofructose 50/50 mix; n=15) or placebo (maltodextrin; n=15) for 3 months (16 g/day). Blood, faeces and urine sampling, oral glucose tolerance test, homeostasis model assessment and impedancemetry were performed before and after treatment. The gut microbial composition in faeces was analysed by phylogenetic microarray and qPCR analysis of 16S rDNA. Plasma and urine metabolic profiles were analysed by 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Results Treatment with ITF prebiotics, but not the placebo, led to an increase in Bifidobacterium and Faecalibacterium prausnitzii; both bacteria negatively correlated with serum lipopolysaccharide levels. ITF prebiotics also decreased Bacteroides intestinalis, Bacteroides vulgatus and Propionibacterium, an effect associated with a slight decrease in fat mass and with plasma lactate and phosphatidylcholine levels. No clear treatment clustering could be detected for gut microbial analysis or plasma and urine metabolomic profile analyses. However, ITF prebiotics led to subtle changes in the gut microbiota that may importantly impact on several key metabolites implicated in obesity and/or diabetes. Conclusions ITF prebiotics selectively changed the gut microbiota composition in obese women, leading to modest changes in host metabolism, as suggested by the correlation between some bacterial species and metabolic endotoxaemia or metabolomic signatures.

Terminal: a miracle play with popular music from the end of the world

Terminal: A Miracle Play with Popular Music from the End of the World is a film and live performance project exploring the politics of post-apocalyptic fiction. A theatrical staging of a morality play for end times and future folk music, it recasts eschatology, as a foundational myth for a future society. Post-apocalyptic writing and cinema are grounded in an ethos of survivalism. Invoking Rousseau’s state of nature, or time before government, these fictions propose violent scenarios in which nuclear holocaust, environmental catastrophe and other disasters generate an individualistic politics of pure pragmatism, negating the possibility of democratic deliberation. Terminal narrates this familiar scenario, but at the same time questions its validity. The film, shot on black and white VHS at Kurt Schwitters’ Merzbarn in Cumbria, dramatises a series of conversations between future-historical archetypes about the needs and pressures of the situation in which they find themselves at the end of the world. The performers then gather to play worshipful songs about acid rain, radiation sickness and eating the dog, using a mix of conventional, obscure and makeshift instruments In the tradition of books such as Russell Hoban’s Riddley Walker and Arthur M. Miller Jr.’s A Canticle for Liebowitz, Terminal imagines artistic expression and new folk traditions for a world to come after the apocalypse. If, as Slavoj Žižek would have it, it is easier to imagine the end of the world than to think of the end of capitalism, the project juxtaposes these two endpoints to test out how alternative scenarios might emerge from the collaborative practice of making theatre and music against a setting of social collapse.

Taking the shopping centre online: new models in e-commerce

Purpose – This paper aims to provide a brief re´sume´ of previous research which has analysed the impact of e-commerce on retail real estate in the UK, and to examine the important marketing role of the internet for shopping centre managers, and retail landlords. Design/methodology/approach – Based on the results from a wider study carried out in 2003, the paper uses case studies from two different shopping centres in the UK, and documents the innovative uses of both web-based marketing and online retailing by organisations that historically have not directly been involved in the retailing process. Findings – The paper highlights the importance of considering online sales within a multi-channel approach to retailing. The two types of emerging shopping centre model which are identified are characterised by their ultimate relationship with the physical shopping centre on whose web site they reside. These can be summarised as: the “centre-led” approach, and the “brand-led” or “marketing-led” approach. Research limitations/implications – The research is based on a limited number of in-depth case studies and secondary data. Further research is needed to monitor the continuing impact of e-commerce on retail property and the marketing strategies of shopping centre managers and owners. Practical implications – Internet-based sales provide an important adjunct to conventional retail sales and an important source of potential risk for landlords and tenants in the real estate investment market. Regardless of whether retailers use the internet as a sales channel, as a product-sourcing tool, or merely to provide information to the consumer, the internet has become a keystone within the greater retail marketing mix. The findings have ramifications for understanding the way in which landlords are structuring their retail property to defray potential risks. Originality/value – The paper examines shopping centre online marketing models for the first time in detail, and will be of value to retail occupiers, owners and other stakeholders of shopping centres.

A bank lending channel or a credit supply shock?

Shifts in credit supply could have a bearing on house prices e.g. through financial innovations and changes in regulation independently of the existence of a bank lending channel of monetary policy. This paper assesses the responses of US house prices to an exogenous credit supply shock and compares them with the effects from variations in credit supply associated with a bank lending channel. The contribution of the study is twofold. First, innovations in credit supply are identified using a mortgage mix variable, thereby accounting for the market-based financial intermediaries. As a robustness check a survey variable of bank lending standards for mortgage loans is also used. Second, the policy-induced credit supply effect on house prices is disentangled and compared with the effect from an exogenous credit supply shock. It is shown that in the first 3 years credit supply shocks affect house prices exogenously rather than through the bank lending channel. Monetary policy has still a large impact on house prices, even when the bank lending channel is ‘turned off’.

A twenty-year independent record of sea surface temperature for climate from Along-track Scanning Radiometers

A new record of sea surface temperature (SST) for climate applications is described. This record provides independent corroboration of global variations estimated from SST measurements made in situ. Infrared imagery from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) is used to create a 20 year time series of SST at 0.1° latitude-longitude resolution, in the ATSR Reprocessing for Climate (ARC) project. A very high degree of independence of in situ measurements is achieved via physics-based techniques. Skin SST and SST estimated for 20 cm depth are provided, with grid cell uncertainty estimates. Comparison with in situ data sets establishes that ARC SSTs generally have bias of order 0.1 K or smaller. The precision of the ARC SSTs is 0.14 K during 2003 to 2009, from three-way error analysis. Over the period 1994 to 2010, ARC SSTs are stable, with better than 95% confidence, to within 0.005 K yr−1(demonstrated for tropical regions). The data set appears useful for cleanly quantifying interannual variability in SST and major SST anomalies. The ARC SST global anomaly time series is compared to the in situ-based Hadley Centre SST data set version 3 (HadSST3). Within known uncertainties in bias adjustments applied to in situ measurements, the independent ARC record and HadSST3 present the same variations in global marine temperature since 1996. Since the in situ observing system evolved significantly in its mix of measurement platforms and techniques over this period, ARC SSTs provide an important corroboration that HadSST3 accurately represents recent variability and change in this essential climate variable.

Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK–Norway renewable power system

UK wind-power capacity is increasing and new transmission links are proposed with Norway, where hydropower dominates the electricity mix. Weather affects both these renewable resources and the demand for electricity. The dominant large-scale pattern of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric variability is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), associated with positive correlations in wind, temperature and precipitation over northern Europe. The NAO's effect on wind-power and demand in the UK and Norway is examined, focussing on March when Norwegian hydropower reserves are low and the combined power system might be most susceptible to atmospheric variations. The NCEP/NCAR meteorological reanalysis dataset (1948–2010) is used to drive simple models for demand and wind-power, and ‘demand-net-wind’ (DNW) is estimated for positive, neutral and negative NAO states. Cold, calm conditions in NAO− cause increased demand and decreased wind-power compared to other NAO states. Under a 2020 wind-power capacity scenario, the increase in DNW in NAO− relative to NAO neutral is equivalent to nearly 25% of the present-day average rate of March Norwegian hydropower usage. As the NAO varies on long timescales (months to decades), and there is potentially some skill in monthly predictions, we argue that it is important to understand its impact on European power systems.

CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.