Approaches to the Implementation of the Water Framework Directive: Targeting Mitigation Measures at Critical Source Areas of Diffuse Phosphorus in Irish Catchments

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) has initiated a shift towards a targeted approach to implementation through its focus on river basin districts as management units and the natural ecological characteristics of waterbodies. Due to its role in eutrophication, phosphorus (P) has received considerable attention, resulting in a significant body of research, which now forms the evidence base for the programme of measures (POMs) adopted in WFD River Basin Management Plans (RBMP). Targeting POMs at critical sources areas (CSAs) of P could significantly improve environmental efficiency and cost effectiveness of proposed mitigation strategies. This paper summarises the progress made towards targeting mitigation measures at CSAs in Irish catchments. A review of current research highlights that knowledge related to P export at field scale is relatively comprehensive however; the availability of site-specific data and tools limits widespread identification of CSA at this scale. Increasing complexity of hydrological processes at larger scales limits accurate identification of CSA at catchment scale. Implementation of a tiered approach, using catchment scale tools in conjunction with field-by-field surveys could decrease uncertainty and provide a more practical and cost effective method of delineating CSA in a range of catchments. Despite scientific and practical uncertainties, development of a tiered CSA-based approach to assist in the development of supplementary measures would provide a means of developing catchment-specific and cost-effective programmes of measures for diffuse P. The paper presents a conceptual framework for such an approach, which would have particular relevance for the development of supplementary measures in High Status Waterbodies (HSW). The cost and resources necessary for implementation are justified based on HSWs’ value as undisturbed reference condition ecosystems.

An analysis of VUV C (IV) emission from the JET divertor giving measurements of electron temperatures

A description of the radiation emitted by impurities from within a plasma is crucial if spectral line intensities are to be used in detailed studies, such as the analysis of impurity transport. The simplest and most direct check that can be made on measurements of line intensities is to analyse their ratios with other lines from the same ion. This avoids uncertainties in determining the volume of the emitting plasma and the absolute sensitivity calibration of the spectrometer and, in some cases, the need even for accurate measurements of parameters such as electron density. Consistency is required between the measured line intensity ratios and the theoretical values. The expected consistency has not been found for radiation emitted from the JET scrape-off layer (e.g. Lawson et al 2009a JINST 4 P04013), meaning that the description of the spectral line intensities of impurity emission from the plasma edge is incomplete. In order to gain further understanding of the discrepancies, an analysis has been carried out for emission from the JET divertor plasma and this is reported in this paper. Carbon was the main low Z intrinsic impurity in JET and an analysis of spectral line intensity ratios has been made for the C (IV) radiation emitted from the JET divertor. In this case, agreement is found between the measured and theoretical ratios to a very high accuracy, namely to within the experimental uncertainty of similar to +/- 10%. This confirms that the description of the line intensities for the present observations is complete. For some elements and ionization stages, an analysis of line intensity ratios can lead to the determination of parameters such as the electron temperature of the emitting plasma region and estimates of the contribution of recombination to the electron energy level populations. This applies to C (IV) and, to show the value and possibilities of the spectral measurements, these parameters have been calculated for a database of Ohmic and additionally heated phases of a large number of pulses. The importance of dielectronic, radiative and charge-exchange recombination as well as ionization has been investigated. In addition, the development of T-e throughout two example discharges is illustrated. The presented results indicate a number of areas for further investigation.

Determination of the Tolman length in the improved Derjaguin-Broekhoff-de Boer theory for capillary condensation of ethanol in mesoporous thin films by ellipsometric porosimetry

Ethanol adsorption-desorption isotherms on well-organized mesoporous silica and titania films with hexagonal pores structure were studied by ellipsometric porosimetry. The mesopore volume Was calculated from the change of the effective refractive index at the end points of the isotherm. An improved Derjaguin-Broekhoff-de Boer (IDBdB) model for cylindrical pores is proposed for the determination of the pore size. In this model, the disjoining pressure isotherms were obtained by measuring the thickness of the ethanol film on a non-porous film with the same chemical composition. This approach eliminates uncertainties related to the application of the statistical film thickness determined via t-plots in previous versions of the DBdB model. The deviation in the surface tension of ethanol in the mesopores from that of a flat interface was described by the Tolman parameter in the Gibbs-Tolman-Koening-Buff equation. A positive value of the Tolman parameter of 0.2 nm was found from the fitting of the desorption branch of the isotherms to the experimental data obtained by Low Angle X-ray Diffraction (LA-XRD) and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) measurements in the range of pore diameters between 2.1 and 8.3 nm. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A deeper search for the progenitor of the Type Ic supernova 2002ap

Images of the site of the Type Ic supernova (SN) 2002ap taken before explosion were analysed previously by Smartt et al. We have uncovered new unpublished, archival pre-explosion images from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) that are vastly superior in depth and image quality. In this paper we present a further search for the progenitor star of this unusual Type Ic SN. Aligning high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope observations of the SN itself with the archival CFHT images allowed us to pinpoint the location of the progenitor site on the groundbased observations. We find that a source visible in the B- and R-band pre-explosion images close to the position of the SN is (1) not coincident with the SN position within the uncertainties of our relative astrometry and (2) is still visible similar to 4.7-yr post-explosion in late-time observations taken with the William Herschel Telescope. We therefore conclude that it is not the progenitor of SN 2002ap. We derived absolute limiting magnitudes for the progenitor of M-B >= -4.2 +/- 0.5 and M-R >= -5.1 +/- 0.5. These are the deepest limits yet placed on a Type Ic SN progenitor. We rule out all massive stars with initial masses greater than 7-8 M-circle dot (the lower mass limit for stars to undergo core collapse) that have not evolved to become Wolf-Rayet stars. This is consistent with the prediction that Type Ic SNe should result from the explosions of Wolf-Rayet stars. Comparing our luminosity limits with stellar models of single stars at appropriate metallicity (Z = 0.008) and with standard mass-loss rates, we find no model that produces a Wolf-Rayet star of low enough mass and luminosity to be classed as a viable progenitor. Models with twice the standard mass-loss rates provide possible single star progenitors but all are initially more massive than 30-40 M-circle dot. We conclude that any single star progenitor must have experienced at least twice the standard mass-loss rates, been initially more massive than 30-40 M-circle dot and exploded as a Wolf-Rayet star of final mass 10-12 M-circle dot. Alternatively a progenitor star of lower initial mass may have evolved in an interacting binary system. Mazzali et al. propose such a binary scenario for the progenitor of SN 2002ap in which a star of initial mass 15-20 M-circle dot is stripped by its binary companion, becoming a 5 M-circle dot Wolf-Rayet star prior to explosion. We constrain any possible binary companion to a main-sequence star of

Blue luminous stars in nearby galaxies: Quantitative spectral analysis of M33 B-type supergiant stars

We present the detailed spectral analysis of a sample of M33 B-type supergiant stars, aimed at the determination of their fundamental parameters and chemical composition. The analysis is based on a grid of non-LTE metal line-blanketed model atmospheres including the effects of stellar winds and spherical extension computed with the code FASTWIND. Surface abundance ratios of C, N, and O are used to discuss the chemical evolutionary status of each individual star. The comparison of observed stellar properties with theoretical predictions of massive star evolutionary models shows good agreement within the uncertainties of the analysis. The spatial distribution of the sample allows us to investigate the existence of radial abundance gradients in the disk of M33. The comparison of stellar and H II region O abundances ( based on direct determinations of the electron temperature of the nebulae) shows good agreement. Using a simple linear radial representation, the stellar oxygen abundances result in a gradient of -0.0145 +/- 0.005 dex arcmin(-1) (or -0.06 +/- 0.02 dex kpc(-1)) up to a distance equal to similar to 1.1 times the isophotal radius of the galaxy. A more complex representation cannot be completely discarded by our stellar sample. The stellar Mg and Si abundances follow the trend displayed by O abundances, although with shallower gradients. These differences in gradient slope cannot be explained at this point. The derived abundances of the three alpha-elements yield solar metallicity in the central regions of the disk of M33. A comparison with recent planetary nebula data from Magrini and coworkers indicates that the disk of M33 has not suffered from a significant O enrichment in the last 3 Gyr.

Dielectric properties of concrete and their influence on radar testing

Sub-surface radar is becoming increasingly popular as an inspection method. Interpretation can be enhanced if uncertainties about the dielectric properties of the concretes under investigation are removed. The need for reliable data to identify possible variations of the dielectric properties of different concrete mixes and their condition on site has led to a systematic laboratory based experimental programme under the auspices of a major European Commission (Brite-Euram m Framework 4) funded project. Some key results from this recently completed work are presented in this paper with practical implications related to field surveys of structural concrete. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. Ah rights reserved.

Relevance and truthfulness in information correction and fusion

A general approach to information correction and fusion for belief functions is proposed, where not only may the information items be irrelevant, but sources may lie as well. We introduce a new correction scheme, which takes into account uncertain metaknowledge on the source’s relevance and truthfulness and that generalizes Shafer’s discounting operation. We then show how to reinterpret all connectives of Boolean logic in terms of source behavior assumptions with respect to relevance and truthfulness. We are led to generalize the unnormalized Dempster’s rule to all Boolean connectives, while taking into account the uncertainties pertaining to assumptions concerning the behavior of sources. Eventually, we further extend this approach to an even more general setting, where source behavior assumptions do not have to be restricted to relevance and truthfulness.We also establish the commutativity property between correction and fusion processes, when the behaviors of the sources are independent.

Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

The electron pressure in the outer atmosphere of ∈ Eri (K2 V)

Observations of ? Eri (K2 V) have been made with the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope. The spectra obtained show a number of emission lines which can be used to determine, or place limits on, the electron density and pressure. Values of the electron pressure are required in order to make quantitative models of the transition region and inner corona from absolute line fluxes, and to constrain semi-empirical models of the chromosphere. Using line flux ratios in Si II and O IV a mean electron pressure of P = NT = 4.8 × 10 cm K is derived. This value is compatible with the lower and upper limits to P found from flux ratios in C III, O V and Fe XII. Some inconsistencies which may be because of small uncertainties in the atomic data used are discussed.

Light curves for off-centre ignition models of Type Ia supernovae

Motivated by recent models involving off-centre ignition of Type Ia supernova explosions, we undertake three-dimensional time-dependent radiation transport simulations to investigate the range of bolometric light-curve properties that could be observed from supernovae in which there is a lop-sided distribution of the products from nuclear burning. We consider both a grid of artificial toy models which illustrate the conceivable range of effects and a recent three-dimensional hydrodynamical explosion model. We find that observationally significant viewing angle effects are likely to arise in such supernovae and that these may have important ramifications for the interpretation of the observed diversity of Type Ia supernova and the systematic uncertainties which relate to their use as standard candles in contemporary cosmology. © 2007 RAS.

Towards mapping the late Quaternary vegetation change of Europe

The number of well-dated pollen diagrams in Europe has increased considerably over the last 30 years and many of them have been submitted to the European Pollen Database (EPD). This allows for the construction of increasingly precise maps of Holocene vegetation change across the continent. Chronological information in the EPD has been expressed in uncalibrated radiocarbon years, and most chronologies to date are based on this time scale. Here we present new chronologies for most of the datasets stored in the EPD based on calibrated radiocarbon years. Age information associated with pollen diagrams is often derived from the pollen stratigraphy itself or from other sedimentological information. We reviewed these chronological tie points and assigned uncertainties to them. The steps taken to generate the new chronologies are described and the rationale for a new classification system for age uncertainties is introduced. The resulting chronologies are fit for most continental-scale questions. They may not provide the best age model for particular sites, but may be viewed as general purpose chronologies. Taxonomic particularities of the data stored in the EPD are explained. An example is given of how the database can be queried to select samples with appropriate age control as well as the suitable taxonomic level to answer a specific research question. © 2013 The Author(s).

PROSTATIC INTRAEPITHELIAL NEOPLASIA (PIN) - PERFORMANCE OF BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK FOR DIAGNOSIS AND GRADING

Prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) diagnosis and grading are affected by uncertainties which arise from the fact that almost all knowledge of PIN histopathology is expressed in concepts, descriptive linguistic terms, and words. A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was therefore used to reduce the problem of uncertainty in diagnostic clue assessment, while still considering the dependences between elements in the reasoning sequence. A shallow network was used with an open-tree topology, with eight first-level descendant nodes for the diagnostic clues (evidence nodes), each independently linked by a conditional probability matrix to a root node containing the diagnostic alternatives (decision node). One of the evidence nodes was based on the tissue architecture and the others were based on cell features. The system was designed to be interactive, in that the histopathologist entered evidence into the network in the form of likelihood ratios for outcomes at each evidence node. The efficiency of the network was tested on a series of 110 prostate specimens, subdivided as follows: 22 cases of non-neoplastic prostate or benign prostatic tissue (NP), 22 PINs of low grade (PINlow), 22 PINs of high grade (PINhigh), 22 prostatic adenocarcinomas with cribriform pattern (PACcri), and 22 prostatic adenocarcinomas with large acinar pattern (PAClgac). The results obtained in the benign and malignant categories showed that the belief for the diagnostic alternatives is very high, the values being in general more than 0.8 and often close to 1.0. When considering the PIN lesions, the network classified and graded most of the cases with high certainty. However, there were some cases which showed values less than 0.8 (13 cases out of 44), thus indicating that there are situations in which the feature changes are intermediate between contiguous categories or grades. Discrepancy between morphological grading and the BBN results was observed in four out of 44 PIN cases: one PINlow was classified as PINhigh and three PINhigh were classified as PINlow. In conclusion, the network can grade PlN lesions and differentiate them from other prostate lesions with certainty. In particular, it offers a descriptive classifier which is readily implemented and which allows the use of linguistic, fuzzy variables.

Financial Taxes and the Sand in the Wheels of Financialization:Legal Challenges for the EU Directive Implementing Enhanced Cooperation in the Area of Financial Transaction Tax

One of the many results of the Global Financial Crisis was the insight that the financial sector is under-taxed compared to other industries. In light of the huge bailouts and continued subsidies for financial institutions that are characterized as too-big-to-fail demands came on the agenda to make finance pay for the mega-crisis it caused. The most prominent examples of such taxes are a Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) and a Financial Activities Tax (FAT). Possible effects of such taxes on the economic constitution and increasingly in particular on the European Single Market have been discussed controversially over the last decades already. Especially with the decision of eleven EU member states to adapt an FTT using the enhanced cooperation procedure a number of additional legal challenges for implementing such a tax have emerged. This paper analyzes how tax measures of indirectly regulating the financial industry differ, what legal challenges they pose, and what their overall contribution would be in making the financial system more stable and resilient. It also analyzes the legal arguments against enhanced cooperation in this area and the legal issues related to the British lawsuit against the Commission’s Directive proposal in the European Court of Justice on grounds of the extra-territoriality application of tax. The paper concludes that the feasibility of an FTT is legally sound and given the FTT’s advantages over a FAT the EU Directive should be implemented as a first step for a European-wide FTT. However, significant uncertainties about its implementation remain at this stage.

DNA double strand break repair: a radiation perspective

SIGNIFICANCE:
Ionizing radiation (IR) can induce a wide range of unique deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) lesions due to the spatiotemporal correlation of the ionization produced. Of these, DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) play a key role. Complex mechanisms and sophisticated pathways are available within cells to restore the integrity and sequence of the damaged DNA molecules.
RECENT ADVANCES:
Here we review the main aspects of the DNA DSB repair mechanisms with emphasis on the molecular pathways, radiation-induced lesions, and their significance for cellular processes.
CRITICAL ISSUES:
Although the main characteristics and proteins involved in the two DNA DSB repair processes present in eukaryotic cells (homologous recombination and nonhomologous end-joining) are reasonably well established, there are still uncertainties regarding the primary sensing event and their dependency on the complexity, location, and time of the damage. Interactions and overlaps between the different pathways play a critical role in defining the repair efficiency and determining the cellular functional behavior due to unrepaired/miss-repaired DNA lesions. The repair pathways involved in repairing lesions induced by soluble factors released from directly irradiated cells may also differ from the established response mechanisms.
FUTURE DIRECTIONS:
An improved understanding of the molecular pathways involved in sensing and repairing damaged DNA molecules and the role of DSBs is crucial for the development of novel classes of drugs to treat human diseases and to exploit characteristics of IR and alterations in tumor cells for successful radiotherapy applications.