Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Clinical presentation and time-course of postoperative venous thromboembolism: Results from the RIETE Registry

There is little literature about the clinical presentation and time-course of postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) in different surgical procedures. RIETE is an ongoing, prospective registry of consecutive patients with objectively confirmed, symptomatic acute VTE. In this analysis, we analysed the baseline characteristics, thromboprophylaxis and therapeutic patterns, time-course, and three-month outcome of all patients with postoperative VTE. As of January 2006, there were 1,602 patients with postoperative VTE in RIETE: 393 (25%) after major orthopaedic surgery (145 elective hip arthroplasty, 126 knee arthroplasty, 122 hip fracture); 207 (13%) after cancer surgery; 1,002 (63%) after other procedures. The percentage of patients presenting with clinically overt pulmonary embolism (PE) (48%, 48%, and 50% respectively), the average time elapsed from surgery to VTE (22 +/- 16, 24 +/- 16, and 21 +/- 15 days, respectively), and the three-month incidence of fatal PE (1.3%, 1.4%, and 0.8%, respectively), fatal bleeding (0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.2%, respectively), or major bleeding (2.3%, 2.9%, and 2.8%, respectively) were similar in the three groups. However, the percentage of patients who had received thromboprophylaxis (96%, 76% and 52%, respectively), the duration of prophylaxis (17 +/- 9.6, 13 +/- 8.9, and 12 +/- 11 days, respectively) and the mean daily doses of low-molecular-weight heparin (4,252 +/- 1,016, 3,260 +/- 1,141, and 3,769 +/- 1,650 IU, respectively), were significantly lower in those undergoing cancer surgery or other procedures. In conclusion, the clinical presentation, time-course, and three-month outcome of VTE was similar among the different subgroups of patients, but the use of prophylaxis in patients undergoing cancer surgery or other procedures was suboptimal.

Correcting Measurement Error Bias in Interaction Models with Small Samples

Several methods have been suggested to estimate non-linear models with interaction terms in the presence of measurement error. Structural equation models eliminate measurement error bias, but require large samples. Ordinary least squares regression on summated scales, regression on factor scores and partial least squares are appropriate for small samples but do not correct measurement error bias. Two stage least squares regression does correct measurement error bias but the results strongly depend on the instrumental variable choice. This article discusses the old disattenuated regression method as an alternative for correcting measurement error in small samples. The method is extended to the case of interaction terms and is illustrated on a model that examines the interaction effect of innovation and style of use of budgets on business performance. Alternative reliability estimates that can be used to disattenuate the estimates are discussed. A comparison is made with the alternative methods. Methods that do not correct for measurement error bias perform very similarly and considerably worse than disattenuated regression

Accuracy profile validation of a new method for carbon monoxide measurement in the human blood using headspace-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (HS-GC-MS).

The aim of our study was to provide an innovative headspace-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (HS-GC-MS) method applicable for the routine determination of blood CO concentration in forensic toxicology laboratories. The main drawback of the GC/MS methods discussed in literature for CO measurement is the absence of a specific CO internal standard necessary for performing quantification. Even if stable isotope of CO is commercially available in the gaseous state, it is essential to develop a safer method to limit the manipulation of gaseous CO and to precisely control the injected amount of CO for spiking and calibration. To avoid the manipulation of a stable isotope-labeled gas, we have chosen to generate in a vial in situ, an internal labeled standard gas ((13)CO) formed by the reaction of labeled formic acid formic acid (H(13)COOH) with sulfuric acid. As sulfuric acid can also be employed to liberate the CO reagent from whole blood, the procedure allows for the liberation of CO simultaneously with the generation of (13)CO. This method allows for precise measurement of blood CO concentrations from a small amount of blood (10 μL). Finally, this method was applied to measure the CO concentration of intoxicated human blood samples from autopsies.

Methods for testing association between uncertain genotypes and quantitative traits.

Interpretability and power of genome-wide association studies can be increased by imputing unobserved genotypes, using a reference panel of individuals genotyped at higher marker density. For many markers, genotypes cannot be imputed with complete certainty, and the uncertainty needs to be taken into account when testing for association with a given phenotype. In this paper, we compare currently available methods for testing association between uncertain genotypes and quantitative traits. We show that some previously described methods offer poor control of the false-positive rate (FPR), and that satisfactory performance of these methods is obtained only by using ad hoc filtering rules or by using a harsh transformation of the trait under study. We propose new methods that are based on exact maximum likelihood estimation and use a mixture model to accommodate nonnormal trait distributions when necessary. The new methods adequately control the FPR and also have equal or better power compared to all previously described methods. We provide a fast software implementation of all the methods studied here; our new method requires computation time of less than one computer-day for a typical genome-wide scan, with 2.5 M single nucleotide polymorphisms and 5000 individuals.

Assessment of coronary vasoreactivity by multidetector computed tomography: feasibility study with rubidium-82 cardiac positron emission tomography.

BACKGROUND: Positron emission tomography (PET) during the cold pressor test (CPT) has been used to assess endothelium-dependent coronary vasoreactivity, a surrogate marker of cardiovascular events. However, its use remains limited by cardiac PET availability. As multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) is more widely available, we aimed to develop a measurement of endothelium-dependent coronary vasoreactivity with MDCT and similar radiation burden as with PET. METHODS AND RESULTS: A study group of 18 participants without known cardiovascular risk factor (9F/9M; age 60±6 years) underwent cardiac PET with (82)Rb and unenhanced ECG-gated MDCT within 4h, each time at rest and during CPT. The relation between absolute myocardial blood flow (MBF) response to CPT by PET (ml·min(-1)·g(1)) and relative changes in MDCT-measured coronary artery surface were assessed using linear regression analysis and Spearman's correlation. MDCT and PET/CT were analyzed in all participants. Hemodynamic conditions during CPT at MDCT and PET were similar (P>0.3). Relative changes in coronary artery surface because of CPT (2.0-21.2%) correlated to changes in MBF (-0.10-0.52ml·min(-1)·g(1)) (ρ=0.68, P=0.02). Effective dose was 1.3±0.2mSv for MDCT and 3.1mSv for PET/CT. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of endothelium-dependent coronary vasoreactivity using MDCT CPT appears feasible. Because of its wider availability, shorter examination time and similar radiation burden, MDCT could be attractive in clinical research for coronary status assessment.

DAS-28-based EULAR response and HAQ improvement in rheumatoid arthritis patients switching between TNF antagonists

INTRODUCTION No definitive data are available regarding the value of switching to an alternative TNF antagonist in rheumatoid arthritis patients who fail to respond to the first one. The aim of this study was to evaluate treatment response in a clinical setting based on HAQ improvement and EULAR response criteria in RA patients who were switched to a second or a third TNF antagonist due to failure with the first one. METHODS This was an observational, prospective study of a cohort of 417 RA patients treated with TNF antagonists in three university hospitals in Spain between January 1999 and December 2005. A database was created at the participating centres, with well-defined operational instructions. The main outcome variables were analyzed using parametric or non-parametric tests depending on the level of measurement and distribution of each variable. RESULTS Mean (+/- SD) DAS-28 on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 5.9 (+/- 2.0), 5.1 (+/- 1.5) and 6.1 (+/- 1.1). At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 3.3 (+/- 1.6; Delta = -2.6; p > 0.0001), 4.2 (+/- 1.5; Delta = -1.1; p = 0.0001) and 5.4 (+/- 1.7; Delta = -0.7; p = 0.06). For the first TNF antagonist, DAS-28-based EULAR response level was good in 42% and moderate in 33% of patients. The second TNF antagonist yielded a good response in 20% and no response in 53% of patients, while the third one yielded a good response in 28% and no response in 72%. Mean baseline HAQ on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 1.61, 1.52 and 1.87, respectively. At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 1.12 (Delta = -0.49; p < 0.0001), 1.31 (Delta = -0.21, p = 0.004) and 1.75 (Delta = -0.12; p = 0.1), respectively. Sixty four percent of patients had a clinically important improvement in HAQ (defined as > or = -0.22) with the first TNF antagonist and 46% with the second. CONCLUSION A clinically significant effect size was seen in less than half of RA patients cycling to a second TNF antagonist.

Niche dynamics in space and time.

Niche conservatism, the tendency of a species niche to remain unchanged over time, is often assumed when discussing, explaining or predicting biogeographical patterns. Unfortunately, there has been no basis for predicting niche dynamics over relevant timescales, from tens to a few hundreds of years. The recent application of species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogenetic methods to analysis of niche characteristics has provided insight to niche dynamics. Niche shifts and conservatism have both occurred within the last 100 years, with recent speciation events, and deep within clades of species. There is increasing evidence that coordinated application of these methods can help to identify species which likely fulfill one key assumption in the predictive application of SDMs: an unchanging niche. This will improve confidence in SDM-based predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions and biodiversity.

Total hemoglobin mass--a new parameter to detect blood doping?

PURPOSE: All kinds of blood manipulations aim to increase the total hemoglobin mass (tHb-mass). To establish tHb-mass as an effective screening parameter for detecting blood doping, the knowledge of its normal variation over time is necessary. The aim of the present study, therefore, was to determine the intraindividual variance of tHb-mass in elite athletes during a training year emphasizing off, training, and race seasons at sea level. METHODS: tHb-mass and hemoglobin concentration ([Hb]) were determined in 24 endurance athletes five times during a year and were compared with a control group (n = 6). An analysis of covariance was used to test the effects of training phases, age, gender, competition level, body mass, and training volume. Three error models, based on 1) a total percentage error of measurement, 2) the combination of a typical percentage error (TE) of analytical origin with an absolute SD of biological origin, and 3) between-subject and within-subject variance components as obtained by an analysis of variance, were tested. RESULTS: In addition to the expected influence of performance status, the main results were that the effects of training volume (P = 0.20) and training phases (P = 0.81) on tHb-mass were not significant. We found that within-subject variations mainly have an analytical origin (TE approximately 1.4%) and a very small SD (7.5 g) of biological origin. CONCLUSION: tHb-mass shows very low individual oscillations during a training year (<6%), and these oscillations are below the expected changes in tHb-mass due to Herythropoetin (EPO) application or blood infusion (approximately 10%). The high stability of tHb-mass over a period of 1 year suggests that it should be included in an athlete's biological passport and analyzed by recently developed probabilistic inference techniques that define subject-based reference ranges.

Detection of human bocavirus and human metapneumovirus by real-time PCR from patients with respiratory symptoms in Southern Brazil

The introduction of newer molecular methods has led to the discovery of new respiratory viruses, such as human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and human bocavirus (hBoV), in respiratory tract specimens. We have studied the occurrence of hMPV and hBoV in the Porto Alegre (PA) metropolitan area, one of the southernmost cities of Brazil, evaluating children with suspected lower respiratory tract infection from May 2007-June 2008. A real-time polymerase chain reaction method was used for amplification and detection of hMPV and hBoV and to evaluate coinfections with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B, parainfluenza 1, 2 and 3, human rhinovirus and human adenovirus. Of the 455 nasopharyngeal aspirates tested, hMPV was detected in 14.5% of samples and hBoV in 13.2%. A unique causative viral agent was identified in 46.2% samples and the coinfection rate was 43.7%. For hBoV, 98.3% of all positive samples were from patients with mixed infections. Similarly, 84.8% of all hMPV-positive results were also observed in mixed infections. Both hBoV and hMPV usually appeared with RSV. In summary, this is the first confirmation that hMPV and hBoV circulate in PA; this provides evidence of frequent involvement of both viruses in children with clinical signs of acute viral respiratory tract infection, although they mainly appeared as coinfection agents.

Real-time molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis by direct genotyping of smear-positive clinical specimens.

We applied MIRU-VNTR (mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat typing) to directly analyze the bacilli present in 61 stain-positive specimens from tuberculosis patients. A complete MIRU type (24 loci) was obtained for all but one (no amplification in one locus) of the specimens (98.4%), and the allelic values fully correlated with those obtained from the corresponding cultures. Our study is the first to demonstrate that real-time genotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis can be achieved, fully transforming the way in which molecular epidemiology techniques can be integrated into control programs.

Malaria diagnosis from pooled blood samples: comparative analysis of real-time PCR, nested PCR and immunoassay as a platform for the molecular and serological diagnosis of malaria on a large-scale

Malaria diagnoses has traditionally been made using thick blood smears, but more sensitive and faster techniques are required to process large numbers of samples in clinical and epidemiological studies and in blood donor screening. Here, we evaluated molecular and serological tools to build a screening platform for pooled samples aimed at reducing both the time and the cost of these diagnoses. Positive and negative samples were analysed in individual and pooled experiments using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), nested PCR and an immunochromatographic test. For the individual tests, 46/49 samples were positive by real-time PCR, 46/49 were positive by nested PCR and 32/46 were positive by immunochromatographic test. For the assays performed using pooled samples, 13/15 samples were positive by real-time PCR and nested PCR and 11/15 were positive by immunochromatographic test. These molecular methods demonstrated sensitivity and specificity for both the individual and pooled samples. Due to the advantages of the real-time PCR, such as the fast processing and the closed system, this method should be indicated as the first choice for use in large-scale diagnosis and the nested PCR should be used for species differentiation. However, additional field isolates should be tested to confirm the results achieved using cultured parasites and the serological test should only be adopted as a complementary method for malaria diagnosis.

Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

BACKGROUND Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (<94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (>102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). CONCLUSIONS WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

Detection of live and antibiotic-killed bacteria by quantitative real-time PCR of specific fragments of ribosomal RNA

RÉSUMÉ Le but d'un traitement antimicrobien est d'éradiquer une infection bactérienne. Cependant, il est souvent difficile d'en évaluer rapidement l'efficacité en utilisant les techniques standard. L'estimation de la viabilité bactérienne par marqueurs moléculaires permettrait d'accélérer le processus. Ce travail étudie donc la possibilité d'utiliser le RNA ribosomal (rRNA) à cet effet. Des cultures de Streptococcus gordonii sensibles (parent Wt) et tolérants (mutant Tol 1) à l'action bactéricide de la pénicilline ont été exposées à différents antibiotiques. La survie bactérienne au cours du temps a été déterminée en comparant deux méthodes. La méthode de référence par compte viable a été comparée à une méthode moléculaire consistant à amplifier par PCR quantitative en temps réel une partie du génome bactérien. La cible choisie devait refléter la viabilité cellulaire et par conséquent être synthétisée de manière constitutive lors de la vie de la bactérie et être détruite rapidement lors de la mort cellulaire. Le choix s'est porté sur un fragment du gène 16S-rRNA. Ce travail a permis de valider ce choix en corrélant ce marqueur moléculaire à la viabilité bactérienne au cours d'un traitement antibiotique bactéricide. De manière attendue, les S. gordonii sensibles à la pénicilline ont perdu ≥ 4 log10 CFU/ml après 48 heures de traitement par pénicilline alors que le mutant tolérant Tol1 en a perdu ≥ 1 log10 CFU/ml. De manière intéressant, la quantité de marqueur a augmenté proportionnellement au compte viable durant la phase de croissance bactérienne. Après administration du traitement antibiotique, l'évolution du marqueur dépendait de la capacité de la bactérie à survivre à l'action de l'antibiotique. Stable lors du traitement des souches tolérantes, la quantité de marqueur détectée diminuait de manière proportionnelle au compte viable lors du traitement des souches sensibles. Cette corrélation s'est confirmée lors de l'utilisation d'autres antibiotiques bactéricides. En conclusion, l'amplification par PCR du RNA ribosomal 16S permet d'évaluer rapidement la viabilité bactérienne au cours d'un traitement antibiotique en évitant le recours à la mise en culture dont les résultats ne sont obtenus qu'après plus de 24 heures. Cette méthode offre donc au clinicien une évaluation rapide de l'efficacité du traitement, particulièrement dans les situations, comme le choc septique, où l'initiation sans délai d'un traitement efficace est une des conditions essentielles du succès thérapeutique. ABSTRACT Assessing bacterial viability by molecular markers might help accelerate the measurement of antibiotic-induced killing. This study investigated whether ribosomal RNA (rRNA) could be suitable for this purpose. Cultures of penicillin-susceptible and penicillin-tolerant (Tol1 mutant) Streptococcus gordonii were exposed to mechanistically different penicillin and levofloxacin. Bacterial survival was assessed by viable counts, and compared to quantitative real-time PCR amplification of either the 16S-rRNA genes (rDNA) or the 16S rRNA, following reverse transcription. Penicillin-susceptible S. gordonii lost ≥ 4 log10 CFU/ml of viability over 48 h of penicillin treatment. In comparison, the Toll mutant lost ≤ 1 log10 CFU/ml. Amplification of a 427-base fragment of 16S rDNA yielded amplicons that increased proportionally to viable counts during bacterial growth, but did not decrease during drug-induced killing. In contrast, the same 427-base fragment amplified from 16S rDNA paralleled both bacterial growth and drug-induced killing. It also differentiated between penicillin-induced killing of the parent and the Toll mutant (≥4 log10 CFU/ml and ≤1 lo10 CFU/ml, respectively), and detected killing by mechanistically unrelated levofloxacin. Since large fragments of polynucleotides might be degraded faster than smaller fragments the experiments were repeated by amplifying a 119-base region internal to the origina1 427-base fragment. The amount of 119-base amplicons increased proportionally to viability during growth, but remained stable during drug treatment. Thus, 16S rRNA was a marker of antibiotic-induced killing, but the size of the amplified fragment was critical to differentiate between live and dead bacteria.

When do we dare to stop biological or immunomodulatory therapy for Crohn's disease? Results of a multidisciplinary European expert panel.

BACKGROUND: Safety and economic issues have increasingly raised concerns about the long term use of immunomodulators or biologics as maintenance therapies for Crohn's disease (CD). Despite emerging evidence suggesting that stopping therapy might be an option for low risk patients, criteria identifying target groups for this strategy are missing, and there is a lack of recommendations regarding this question. METHODS: Multidisciplinary European expert panel (EPACT-II Update) rated the appropriateness of stopping therapy in CD patients in remission. We used the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method, and included the following variables: presence of clinical and/or endoscopic remission, CRP level, fecal calprotectin level, prior surgery for CD, and duration of remission (1, 2 or 4 years). RESULTS: Before considering withdrawing therapy, the prerequisites of a C-reactive protein (CRP) and fecal calprotectin measurement were rated as "appropriate" by the panellists, whereas a radiological evaluation was considered as being of "uncertain" appropriateness. Ileo-colonoscopy was considered appropriate 1 year after surgery or after 4 years in the absence of prior surgery. Stopping azathioprine, 6-mercaptopurine or methotrexate mono-therapy was judged appropriate after 4 years of clinical remission. Withdrawing anti-TNF mono-therapy was judged appropriate after 2 years in case of clinical and endoscopic remission, and after 4 years of clinical remission. In case of combined therapy, anti-TNF withdrawal, while continuing the immunomodulator, was considered appropriate after two years of clinical remission. CONCLUSION: A multidisciplinary European expert panel proposed for the first time treatment stopping rules for patients in clinical and/or endoscopic remission, with normal CRP and fecal calprotectin levels.