Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Mercury interactions with suspended solids at the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

A water quality model was developed to analyze the impact of hydrological events on mercury contamination of the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee. The model simulates surface and subsurface hydrology and transport (MIKE SHE and MIKE 11) and it is coupled with the reactive transport of sediments and mercury (ECOLAB). The model was used to simulate the distribution of mercury contamination in the water and sediments as a function of daily hydrological events. Results from the model show a high correlation between suspended solids and mercury in the water due to the affinity of mercury with suspended organics. The governing parameters for the distribution of total suspended solids and mercury contamination were the critical velocity of the stream for particle resuspension, the rates of resuspension and production of particles, settling velocity, soil-water partition coefficient, and desorption rate of mercury in the water. Flow and load duration curves at the watershed exit were used to calibrate the model and to determine the impact of hydrological events on the total maximum daily load at Station 17. The results confirmed the strong link between hydrology and mercury transport.

An Integrated Flow and Transport Model to Study the Impact of Mercury Remediation Strategies for East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

An integrated flow and transport model using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 software was developed to predict the flow and transport of mercury, Hg(II), under varying environmental conditions. The model analyzed the impact of remediation scenarios within the East Fork Poplar Creek watershed of the Oak Ridge Reservation with respect to downstream concentration of mercury. The numerical simulations included the entire hydrological cycle: flow in rivers, overland flow, groundwater flow in the saturated and unsaturated zones, and evapotranspiration and precipitation time series. Stochastic parameters and hydrologic conditions over a five year period of historical hydrological data were used to analyze the hydrological cycle and to determine the prevailing mercury transport mechanism within the watershed. Simulations of remediation scenarios revealed that reduction of the highly contaminated point sources, rather than general remediation of the contaminant plume, has a more direct impact on downstream mercury concentrations.

Environmental stability affects phenotypic evolution in a globally distributed marine picoplankton

Marine phytoplankton can evolve rapidly when confronted with aspects of climate change because of their large population sizes and fast generation times. Despite this, the importance of environment fluctuations, a key feature of climate change, has received little attention-selection experiments with marine phytoplankton are usually carried out in stable environments and use single or few representatives of a species, genus or functional group. Here we investigate whether and by how much environmental fluctuations contribute to changes in ecologically important phytoplankton traits such as C:N ratios and cell size, and test the variability of changes in these traits within the globally distributed species Ostreococcus. We have evolved 16 physiologically distinct lineages of Ostreococcus at stable high CO2 (1031±87?µatm CO2, SH) and fluctuating high CO2 (1012±244?µatm CO2, FH) for 400 generations. We find that although both fluctuation and high CO2 drive evolution, FH-evolved lineages are smaller, have reduced C:N ratios and respond more strongly to further increases in CO2 than do SH-evolved lineages. This indicates that environmental fluctuations are an important factor to consider when predicting how the characteristics of future phytoplankton populations will have an impact on biogeochemical cycles and higher trophic levels in marine food webs.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Patch selection behaviour in the presence of environmental constraints

Habitat selection behaviour is the primary way in which organisms are able to regulate encounters with their biotic and abiotic environment. An individual chooses an area that best meets their current needs, particularly regarding safety and the presence of high-quality food. Several physical aspects of the environment can make it difficult for individuals to assess the relative habitat quality of the areas available, thus leading to suboptimal habitat selection. In this thesis, I investigated the way in which two aquatic habitat constraints - obstacles to movement between patches and turbidity - affected the ability of fish to make optimal patch choices, using threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus as a model species. Laboratory experiments showed that when movement between patches was hindered by increasingly challenging obstacles, groups of stickleback did not move as freely between the patches, and thus had greater deviations from the predictions of the Ideal Free Distribution (IFD). I also demonstrated that, unlike other species, stickleback do not use turbid environments to avoid predator detection. A trend was seen towards avoidance of a turbid food patch regardless of risk level, although this was not statistically significant. As expected, the stickleback avoided feeding in the presence of a predator regardless of water clarity. Overall, I found that both turbidity and movement constraints can have significant impacts on patch use and distribution in the threespine stickleback. Both turbidity and ease of transit will impact the distribution of ecologically important species like the threespine stickleback, and therefore should be taken into account when studying habitat selection in the wild.

Student Independent Projects Environmental Studies 2007: Redesigning the Corner Brook Waterfront

In recent decades, urban planning has seen a rise in waterfront revitalization. This is important concerning Corner Brook, where the possible permanent closure of the Mill would have devastating consequences for the surrounding area. Corner Brook is located on the West Coast of Newfoundland, Canada, and has a population of 20,083 (WWW.statcan.ca, 2007). Corner Brook Pulp and Paper Ltd. (CBP&P) dominates the local economy and is located on the city's waterfront. With the realization that the heart of any city is the waterfront, if there is one present, many cities started revitalization trend in order to bring life back to the community and restore the local economy (Robertson, 1999). In the past, waterfronts were dominated with industry, shipping, and the navy. Today, the focus has shifted to leisure, recreation, tourism, and residential and commercial activity. Along with economic factors, the visual aspect of the waterfront is also Important (Albrecht, Bode, & Evers, 2003; Hoffman, 1999). Although this trend started out larger cities, such as Toronto, it has now spread to smaller centers, similar to the size of Corner Brook (Hoyle, 2000). What differs between the various sizes of the cities is what the main focus of the waterfront will be following the revitalization. With the tourism economy making a strong foothold in Newfoundland, the waterfront would provide the possibility to extend it even further. Yet, the most important aspects of the new waterfront will be to ensure environmentally safe measures (Slocombe, 1993) and making sure that as many jobs as possible will be generated. The generation of new jobs is especially important considering the loss of the Mill, which has provided the city and surrounding area with paying employment.

Coal-fired Power Plants with Flexible Amine-based CCS and Co-located Wind Power: Environmental, Economic and Reliability Outcomes

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

Predicting Forest Responses to Changing Environmental Conditions

Forests change with changes in their environment based on the physiological responses of individual trees. These short-term reactions have cumulative impacts on long-term demographic performance. For a tree in a forest community, success depends on biomass growth to capture above- and belowground resources and reproductive output to establish future generations. Here we examine aspects of how forests respond to changes in moisture and light availability and how these responses are related to tree demography and physiology.

First we address the long-term pattern of tree decline before death and its connection with drought. Increasing drought stress and chronic morbidity could have pervasive impacts on forest composition in many regions. We use long-term, whole-stand inventory data from southeastern U.S. forests to show that trees exposed to drought experience multiyear declines in growth prior to mortality. Following a severe, multiyear drought, 72% of trees that did not recover their pre-drought growth rates died within 10 years. This pattern was mediated by local moisture availability. As an index of morbidity prior to death, we calculated the difference in cumulative growth after drought relative to surviving conspecifics. The strength of drought-induced morbidity varied among species and was correlated with species drought tolerance.

Next, we investigate differences among tree species in reproductive output relative to biomass growth with changes in light availability. Previous studies reach conflicting conclusions about the constraints on reproductive allocation relative to growth and how they vary through time, across species, and between environments. We test the hypothesis that canopy exposure to light, a critical resource, limits reproductive allocation by comparing long-term relationships between reproduction and growth for trees from 21 species in forests throughout the southeastern U.S. We found that species had divergent responses to light availability, with shade-intolerant species experiencing an alleviation of trade-offs between growth and reproduction at high light. Shade-tolerant species showed no changes in reproductive output across light environments.

Given that the above patterns depend on the maintenance of transpiration, we next developed an approach for predicting whole-tree water use from sap flux observations. Accurately scaling these observations to tree- or stand-levels requires accounting for variation in sap flux between wood types and with depth into the tree. We compared different models with sap flux data to test the hypotheses that radial sap flux profiles differ by wood type and tree size. We show that radial variation in sap flux is dependent on wood type but independent of tree size for a range of temperate trees. The best-fitting model predicted out-of-sample sap flux observations and independent estimates of sapwood area with small errors, suggesting robustness in new settings. We outline a method for predicting whole-tree water use with this model and include computer code for simple implementation in other studies.

Finally, we estimated tree water balances during drought with a statistical time-series analysis. Moisture limitation in forest stands comes predominantly from water use by the trees themselves, a drought-stand feedback. We show that drought impacts on tree fitness and forest composition can be predicted by tracking the moisture reservoir available to each tree in a mass balance. We apply this model to multiple seasonal droughts in a temperate forest with measurements of tree water use to demonstrate how species and size differences modulate moisture availability across landscapes. As trees deplete their soil moisture reservoir during droughts, a transpiration deficit develops, leading to reduced biomass growth and reproductive output.

This dissertation draws connections between the physiological condition of individual trees and their behavior in crowded, diverse, and continually-changing forest stands. The analyses take advantage of growing data sets on both the physiology and demography of trees as well as novel statistical techniques that allow us to link these observations to realistic quantitative models. The results can be used to scale up tree measurements to entire stands and address questions about the future composition of forests and the land’s balance of water and carbon.

Essays on Intergenerational and Regional Aspects of Water Management

This dissertation consists of three essays on different aspects of water management. The first essay focuses on the sustainability of freshwater use by introducing the notion that altruistic parents do bequeath economic assets for their offspring. Constructing a two-period, over-lapping generational model, an optimal ratio of consumption and pollution for old and young generations in each period is determined. Optimal levels of water consumption and pollution change according to different parameters, such as, altruistic degree, natural recharge rate, and population growth. The second essay concerns water sharing between countries in the case of trans-boundary river basins. The paper recognizes that side payments fail to forge water-sharing agreement among the international community and that downstream countries have weak bargaining power. An interconnected game approach is developed by linking the water allocation issue with other non-water issues such as trade or border security problems, creating symmetry between countries in bargaining power. An interconnected game forces two countries to at least partially cooperate under some circumstances. The third essay introduces the concept of virtual water (VW) into a traditional international trade model in order to estimate water savings for a water scarce country. A two country, two products and two factors trade model is developed, which includes not only consumers and producer’s surplus, but also environmental externality of water use. The model shows that VW trade saves water and increases global and local welfare. This study should help policy makers to design appropriate subsidy or tax policy to promote water savings especially in water scarce countries.

Life-history traits of two Salvelinus species and mercury concentrations in fish and prey in ten Canadian lakes (2006-2008)

Mercury concentrations ([Hg]) in Arctic food fish often exceed guidelines for human subsistence consumption. Previous research on two food fish species, Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) and lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), indicates that anadromous fish have lower [Hg] than nonanadromous fish, but there have been no intraregional comparisons. Also, no comparisons of [Hg] among anadromous (sea-run), resident (marine access but do not migrate), and landlocked (no marine access) life history types of Arctic char and lake trout have been published. Using intraregional data from 10 lakes in the West Kitikmeot area of Nunavut, Canada, we found that [Hg] varied significantly among species and life history types. Differences among species-life history types were best explained by age-at-size and C:N ratios (indicator of lipid); [Hg] was significantly and negatively related to both. At a standardized fork length of 500 mm, lake trout had significantly higher [Hg] (mean 0.17 µg/g wet wt) than Arctic char (0.09 µg/g). Anadromous and resident Arctic char had significantly lower [Hg] (each 0.04 µg/g) than landlocked Arctic char (0.19 µg/g). Anadromous lake trout had significantly lower [Hg] (0.12 µg/g) than resident lake trout (0.18 µg/g), but no significant difference in [Hg] was seen between landlocked lake trout (0.21 µg/g) and other life history types. Our results are relevant to human health assessments and consumption guidance and will inform models of Hg accumulation in Arctic fish.

(Table 2) Mercury concentration in hair of Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafter Hg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p < 0.0001) from 1892 to 2008 and the two most recent median concentrations from 2006 and 2008 were 23- to 27-fold higher respectively than baseline level from 1300 A.D. in the same region (Nuullit). This indicates that the present (2006-2008) Northwest Greenland polar bear Hg exposure is 95.6-96.2% anthropogenic in its origin. Assuming a continued anthropogenic increase, this model estimated concentrations in 2050 and 2100 will be 40- and 92-fold the baseline concentration, respectively, which is equivalent to a 97.5 and 98.9% man-made contribution. None of the 2001-2008 concentrations of Hg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 µg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 µg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call for detailed effect studies in main target organs such as brain, liver, kidney, and sexual organs in the Northwest Greenland polar bears.

City dweller aspirations for cities of the future: How do environmental and personal wellbeing feature?

This paper explores city dweller aspirations for cities of the future in the context of global commitments to radically reduce carbon emissions by 2050; cities contribute the vast majority of these emissions and a growing bulk of theworld's population lives in cities. The particular challenge of creating a carbon reduced future in democratic countries is that the measures proposed must be acceptable to the electorate. Such acceptability is fostered if carbon reduced ways of living are also felt to bewellbeing maximising. Thus the objective of the paper is to explore what kinds of cities people aspire to live in, to ascertain whether these aspirations align with or undermine carbon reduced ways of living, as well as personal wellbeing. Using a novel free associative technique, city aspirations are found to cluster around seven themes, encompassing physical and social aspects. Physically, people aspire to a city with a range of services and facilities, green and blue spaces, efficient transport, beauty and good design. Socially, people aspire to a sense of community and a safe environment. An exploration of these themes reveals that only a minority of the participants' aspirations for cities relate to lowering carbon or environmental wellbeing. Far more consensual is emphasis on, and a particular vision of, aspirations that will bring personal wellbeing. Furthermore, city dweller aspirations align with evidence concerning factors that maximise personal wellbeing but, far less, with those that produce lowcarbonways of living. In order to shape a lower carbon future that city dwellers accept the potential convergence between environmental and personal wellbeing will need to be capitalised on: primarily aversion to pollution and enjoyment of communal green space.

Territorial and demographic aspects of the Networks of Protected Natural Areas of Castilla-La Mancha: 1978-2014

The Autonomous Region of Castilla-La Mancha develops from the approval of the Spanish Constitution a whole executive and legislative branch to implement its policies on environmental protection. The new legislation (Law 9/1999, of 26 May) has pursued the conservation and the integral protection of the natural elements of the territory demanding to new criteria as such the environmental quality of ecosystems or the exceptional landscape. The spread and the declaration of new natural spaces have caused a double geographical and territorial model. First, natural spaces located in rural mountainous areas with depopulation and aging problems. And second, natural spaces situated in areas densely populated