940 resultados para Mathematical modeling of water quality


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Northern wetlands, and particularly peatlands, have been shown to store around 30% of the world's soil carbon and thus play a significant role in the carbon cycle of our planet. Changes in climate are altering peatland hydrology and vegetation communities. These changes are possibly resulting in declines in the ability of peatlands to sequester carbon because losses through carbon oxidation and mineralization are likely to increase relative to C inputs from net primary production in a warmer, drier climate. However, the consequences of interactive effects of altered hydrology and vegetation on carbon storage are not well understood. This research evaluated the importance of plant species, water table, and their interactive effects on porewater quality in a northern peatland with an average pH of 4.54, ranging from 4.15 to 4.8. We assessed the effects of plant functional group (ericaceous shrubs, sedges, and bryophytes) and water table position on biogeochemical processes. Specifically, we measured dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), potential enzyme activity, organic acids, anions and cations, spectral indexes of aromaticity, and phenolic content. Our results indicate that acetate and propionate concentrations in the sedge-dominated communities declined with depth and water table drawdown, relative to the control and ericaceous treatments. DOC increased in the lowered water table treatments in all vegetation community types, and the peat porewater C:N ratio declined in the sedge-dominated treatments when the water table was lowered. The relationship between DOC and ferrous iron showed significant responses to vegetation type; the exclusion of Ericaceae resulted in less ferrous iron per unit DOC compared to mixed species treatments and Ericaceae alone. This observation was corroborated with higher mean oxidation redox potential profiles (integrating 20, 40, and 70 cm) measured in the sedge treatments, compared with the mixed and Ericaceae species treatments over a growing season. Enzymatic activities did not show as strong of a response to treatments as expected; the oxidative enzyme peroxidase and the hydrolytic enzyme phosphatase were the only enzymes to respond to water table, where the potential activity of both enzymes increased with water table drawdown. Overall, there were significant interactive effects between changes in vegetation and water table position on peat porewater composition. These data suggest that vegetation effects on oxidation reduction potentials and peat porewater character can be as important as water table position in northern bog ecosystems.

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The Williston basin has been producing oil and gas since the 1950s, but production has increased recently due to use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies to extract oil and gas from the Bakken and Three Forks Formations. As concern about effects of energy production on surface-water and groundwater quality increases, the characterization of current water-quality conditions is highly important to the scientific community, resource managers, industry, and general public.

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P450 oxidoreductase (POR) is the obligate electron donor for microsomal cytochrome P450s and mutations in POR cause several metabolic disorders. We have modeled the structure of human P450 oxidoreductase by in silico amino acid replacements in the rat POR crystal structure. The rat POR has 94% homology with human POR and 38 amino acids were replaced to make its sequence identical to human POR. Several rounds of molecular dynamic simulations refined the model and removed structural clashes from side chain alterations of replaced amino acids. This approach has the advantage of keeping the cofactor contacts and structural features of the core enzyme intact which could not be achieved by homology based approaches. The final model from our approach was of high quality and compared well with experimentally determined structures of other PORs. This model will be used for analyzing the structural implications of mutations and polymorphisms in human POR.

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High-resolution and highly precise age models for recent lake sediments (last 100–150 years) are essential for quantitative paleoclimate research. These are particularly important for sedimentological and geochemical proxies, where transfer functions cannot be established and calibration must be based upon the relation of sedimentary records to instrumental data. High-precision dating for the calibration period is most critical as it determines directly the quality of the calibration statistics. Here, as an example, we compare radionuclide age models obtained on two high-elevation glacial lakes in the Central Chilean Andes (Laguna Negra: 33°38′S/70°08′W, 2,680 m a.s.l. and Laguna El Ocho: 34°02′S/70°19′W, 3,250 m a.s.l.). We show the different numerical models that produce accurate age-depth chronologies based on 210Pb profiles, and we explain how to obtain reduced age-error bars at the bottom part of the profiles, i.e., typically around the end of the 19th century. In order to constrain the age models, we propose a method with five steps: (i) sampling at irregularly-spaced intervals for 226Ra, 210Pb and 137Cs depending on the stratigraphy and microfacies, (ii) a systematic comparison of numerical models for the calculation of 210Pb-based age models: constant flux constant sedimentation (CFCS), constant initial concentration (CIC), constant rate of supply (CRS) and sediment isotope tomography (SIT), (iii) numerical constraining of the CRS and SIT models with the 137Cs chronomarker of AD 1964 and, (iv) step-wise cross-validation with independent diagnostic environmental stratigraphic markers of known age (e.g., volcanic ash layer, historical flood and earthquakes). In both examples, we also use airborne pollutants such as spheroidal carbonaceous particles (reflecting the history of fossil fuel emissions), excess atmospheric Cu deposition (reflecting the production history of a large local Cu mine), and turbidites related to historical earthquakes. Our results show that the SIT model constrained with the 137Cs AD 1964 peak performs best over the entire chronological profile (last 100–150 years) and yields the smallest standard deviations for the sediment ages. Such precision is critical for the calibration statistics, and ultimately, for the quality of the quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. The systematic comparison of CRS and SIT models also helps to validate the robustness of the chronologies in different sections of the profile. Although surprisingly poorly known and under-explored in paleolimnological research, the SIT model has a great potential in paleoclimatological reconstructions based on lake sediments

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Access to sufficient quantities of safe drinking water is a human right. Moreover, access to clean water is of public health relevance, particularly in semi-arid and Sahelian cities due to the risks of water contamination and transmission of water-borne diseases. We conducted a study in Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania, to deepen the understanding of diarrhoeal incidence in space and time. We used an integrated geographical approach, combining socio-environmental, microbiological and epidemiological data from various sources, including spatially explicit surveys, laboratory analysis of water samples and reported diarrhoeal episodes. A geospatial technique was applied to determine the environmental and microbiological risk factors that govern diarrhoeal transmission. Statistical and cartographic analyses revealed concentration of unimproved sources of drinking water in the most densely populated areas of the city, coupled with a daily water allocation below the recommended standard of 20 l per person. Bacteriological analysis indicated that 93% of the non-piped water sources supplied at water points were contaminated with 10-80 coliform bacteria per 100 ml. Diarrhoea was the second most important disease reported at health centres, accounting for 12.8% of health care service consultations on average. Diarrhoeal episodes were concentrated in municipalities with the largest number of contaminated water sources. Environmental factors (e.g. lack of improved water sources) and bacteriological aspects (e.g. water contamination with coliform bacteria) are the main drivers explaining the spatio-temporal distribution of diarrhoea. We conclude that integrating environmental, microbiological and epidemiological variables with statistical regression models facilitates risk profiling of diarrhoeal diseases. Modes of water supply and water contamination were the main drivers of diarrhoea in this semi-arid urban context of Nouakchott, and hence require a strategy to improve water quality at the various levels of the supply chain.

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Tree water deficit estimated by measuring water-related changes in stem radius (DeltaW) was compared with tree water deficit estimated from the output of a simple, physiologically reasonable model (DeltaW(E)), with soil water potential (Psi(soil)) and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) as inputs. Values of DeltaW were determined by monitoring stem radius changes with dendrometers and detrending the results for growth, We followed changes in DeltaW and DeltaW(E) in Pinus sylvestris L. and Quercus pubescens Willd. over 2 years at a dry site (2001-2002; Salgesch, Wallis) and in Picea abies (L.) Karst. for 1 year at a wet site (1998; Davos, Graubuenden) in the Swiss Alps. The seasonal courses of DeltaW in deciduous species and in conifers at the same site were similar and could be largely explained by variation in DeltaW(E). This finding strongly suggests that DeltaW, despite the known species-specific differences in stomatal response to microclimate, is mainly explained by a combination of atmospheric and soil conditions. Consequently, we concluded that trees are unable to maintain any particular DeltaW. Either Psi(soil) or VPD alone provided poorer estimates of AWthan a model incorporating both factors. As a first approximation of DeltaW(E), Psi(soil) can be weighted so that the negative mean Psi(soil) reaches 65 to 75% of the positive mean daytime VPD over a season (Q. pubescens: similar to65%, P abies: similar to70%, P sylvestris: similar to75%). The differences in DeltaW among species can be partially explained by a different weighting of Psi(soil) against VPD. The DeltaW of P. sylvestris was more dependent on Psi(soil) than that of Q. pubescens, but less than that of P. abies, and was less dependent on VPD than that of P. abies and Q. pubescens. The model worked well for P. abies at the wet site and for Q. pubescens and P. sylvestris at the dry site, and may be useful for estimating water deficit in other tree species.

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The near nucleus coma of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 has been simulated with the 3D Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code PDSC++ (Su, C.-C. [2013]. Parallel Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) Methods for Modeling Rarefied Gas Dynamics. PhD Thesis, National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan) and the derived column densities have been compared to observations of the water vapour distribution found by using infrared imaging spectrometer on the Deep Impact spacecraft (Feaga, L.M., A’Hearn, M.F., Sunshine, J.M., Groussin, O., Farnham, T.L. [2007]. Icarus 191(2), 134–145. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2007.04.038). Modelled total production rates are also compared to various observations made at the time of the Deep Impact encounter. Three different models were tested. For all models, the shape model constructed from the Deep Impact observations by Thomas et al. (Thomas, P.C., Veverka, J., Belton, M.J.S., Hidy, A., A’Hearn, M.F., Farnham, T.L., et al. [2007]. Icarus, 187(1), 4–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2006.12.013) was used. Outgassing depending only on the cosine of the solar insolation angle on each shape model facet is shown to provide an unsatisfactory model. Models constructed on the basis of active areas suggested by Kossacki and Szutowicz (Kossacki, K., Szutowicz, S. [2008]. Icarus, 195(2), 705–724. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2007.12.014) are shown to be superior. The Kossacki and Szutowicz model, however, also shows deficits which we have sought to improve upon. For the best model we investigate the properties of the outflow.

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The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

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Drinking water-related exposures within populations living in the United States-Mexico border region, particularly among Hispanics, is an area that is largely unknown. Specifically, perceptions that may affect water source selection is an issue that has not been fully addressed. This study evaluates drinking water quality perceptions in a mostly Hispanic community living along the United States-Mexico border, a community also facing water scarcity issues. Using a survey that was administered during two seasons (winter and summer), data were collected from a total of 608 participants, of which 303 were living in the United States and 305 in Mexico. A (random) convenience sampling technique was used to select households and those interviewed were over 18 years of age. Statistically significant differences were observed involving country of residence (p=0.002). Specifically, those living in Mexico reported a higher use of bottled water than those living in the United States. Perception factors, especially taste, were cited as main reasons for not selecting unfiltered tap water as a primary drinking water source. Understanding what influences drinking water source preference can aid in the development of risk communication strategies regarding water quality. ^

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High-frequency data collected continuously over a multiyear time frame are required for investigating the various agents that drive ecological and hydrodynamic processes in estuaries. Here, we present water quality and current in-situ observations from a fixed monitoring station operating from 2008 to 2014 in the lower Guadiana Estuary, southern Portugal (37°11.30' N, 7°24.67' W). The data were recorded by a multi-parametric probe providing hourly records (temperature, salinity, chlorophyll, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, and pH) at a water depth of ~1 m, and by a bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler measuring the pressure, near-bottom temperature, and flow velocity through the water column every 15 min. The time-series data, in particular the probe ones, present substantial gaps arising from equipment failure and maintenance, which are ineluctable with this type of observations in harsh environments. However, prolonged (months-long) periods of multi-parametric observations during contrasted external forcing conditions are available. The raw data are reported together with flags indicating the quality status of each record. River discharge data from two hydrographic stations located near the estuary head are also provided to support data analysis and interpretation.