Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

Using a sequence of nested multivariate models that are VAR-based, we discuss different layers of restrictions imposed by present-value models (PVM hereafter) on the VAR in levels for series that are subject to present-value restrictions. Our focus is novel - we are interested in the short-run restrictions entailed by PVMs (Vahid and Engle, 1993, 1997) and their implications for forecasting. Using a well-known database, kept by Robert Shiller, we implement a forecasting competition that imposes different layers of PVM restrictions. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to the unrestricted VAR. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produces forecast winners 70% of the time for the target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

A critical value function approach, with an application to persistent time-series

Researchers often rely on the t-statistic to make inference on parameters in statistical models. It is common practice to obtain critical values by simulation techniques. This paper proposes a novel numerical method to obtain an approximately similar test. This test rejects the null hypothesis when the test statistic islarger than a critical value function (CVF) of the data. We illustrate this procedure when regressors are highly persistent, a case in which commonly-used simulation methods encounter dificulties controlling size uniformly. Our approach works satisfactorily, controls size, and yields a test which outperforms the two other known similar tests.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Synthesis and in vitro anti Mycobacterium tuberculosis activity of a series of phthalimide derivatives

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Potential tuberculostatic agents. Topliss application on benzoic acid [(5-nitro-thiophen-2-yl)-methylene]-hydrazide series

Nitroaromatic compounds such as nifuroxazide are used in many human enteropathogenic bacteria infections without causing an increase in the plasmidial antibiotic resistance of the aerobic Gram-negative intestinal Enterobacteriaceae. For these reasons, these compounds have been synthesized using the rational approach of Topliss' decision tree. Generally. this approach allows us to obtain the most active derivative from the series in a few steps. These compounds were tested against Mycobacterium tuberculosis in vitro and the most active of the series identified. A new lead for potential tuberculostatic activity has been predicted and will be used in further QSAR studies. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of oligomers in polyethyleneterephthalate bottles for mineral water and fruit juice - Development and validation of a high-performance liquid chromatographic method for the determination of first series cyclic trimer

Cyclic oligomers were identified in PET bottles used for mineral water and fruit juice using MS and H-1 and C-13 NMR: a first series cyclic trimer, a first series cyclic tetramer, a first series cyclic dimmer and a second series cyclic trimer. An analytical method to determine first series cyclic trimer in these bottles was developed and validated, using HPLC. The first series cyclic trimer levels were 316-462 mg/100 g of PET bottle. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time-series-based maximization of distributed wind power generation integration

Energy policies and technological progress in the development of wind turbines have made wind power the fastest growing renewable power source worldwide. The inherent variability of this resource requires special attention when analyzing the impacts of high penetration on the distribution network. A time-series steady-state analysis is proposed that assesses technical issues such as energy export, losses, and short-circuit levels. A multiobjective programming approach based on the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA) is applied in order to find configurations that maximize the integration of distributed wind power generation (DWPG) while satisfying voltage and thermal limits. The approach has been applied to a medium voltage distribution network considering hourly demand and wind profiles for part of the U.K. The Pareto optimal solutions obtained highlight the drawbacks of using a single demand and generation scenario, and indicate the importance of appropriate substation voltage settings for maximizing the connection of MPG.

Melhora da estabilidade dinâmica de sistemas elétricos de potência multimáquinas usando o dispositivo facts thyristor-controlled series capacitor - TCSC

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Structural Health Monitoring in Smart Structures Through Time Series Analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efficacy of surgical versus conservative treatment in esophageal perforation: a systematic review of case series studies

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of surgical treatment for esophageal perforation. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed. We conducted a search strategy in the main electronic databases such as PubMed, Embase and Lilacs to identify all case series. RESULTS: Thirty three case series met the inclusion criteria with a total of 1417 participants. The predominant etiology was iatrogenic (54.2%) followed by spontaneous cause (20.4%) and in 66.1% the localization was thoracic. In 65.4% and 33.4% surgical and conservative therapy, respectively, was considered the first choice. There was a statistically significance different with regards mortality rate favoring the surgical group (16.3%) versus conservative treatment (21.2%) (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Surgical treatment was more effective and safe than conservative treatment concerning mortality rates, although the possibility of bias due to clinical and methodological heterogeneity among the included studies and the level of evidence that cannot be ruled out.

New Species of Ischnocnema (Anura: Brachycephalidae) from the State of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil, with Comments on the I. verrucosa Species Series

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)