Matching of catalogues by probabilistic pattern classification

We consider the statistical problem of catalogue matching from a machine learning perspective with the goal of producing probabilistic outputs, and using all available information. A framework is provided that unifies two existing approaches to producing probabilistic outputs in the literature, one based on combining distribution estimates and the other based on combining probabilistic classifiers. We apply both of these to the problem of matching the HI Parkes All Sky Survey radio catalogue with large positional uncertainties to the much denser SuperCOSMOS catalogue with much smaller positional uncertainties. We demonstrate the utility of probabilistic outputs by a controllable completeness and efficiency trade-off and by identifying objects that have high probability of being rare. Finally, possible biasing effects in the output of these classifiers are also highlighted and discussed.

Prediction of protein continuum secondary structure with probabilistic models based on NMR solved structures

Background: The structure of proteins may change as a result of the inherent flexibility of some protein regions. We develop and explore probabilistic machine learning methods for predicting a continuum secondary structure, i.e. assigning probabilities to the conformational states of a residue. We train our methods using data derived from high-quality NMR models. Results: Several probabilistic models not only successfully estimate the continuum secondary structure, but also provide a categorical output on par with models directly trained on categorical data. Importantly, models trained on the continuum secondary structure are also better than their categorical counterparts at identifying the conformational state for structurally ambivalent residues. Conclusion: Cascaded probabilistic neural networks trained on the continuum secondary structure exhibit better accuracy in structurally ambivalent regions of proteins, while sustaining an overall classification accuracy on par with standard, categorical prediction methods.

Mathematical Morphology: Star/Galaxy Differentiation & Galaxy Morphology Classication

We present an application of Mathematical Morphology (MM) for the classification of astronomical objects, both for star/galaxy differentiation and galaxy morphology classification. We demonstrate that, for CCD images, 99.3 +/- 3.8% of galaxies can be separated from stars using MM, with 19.4 +/- 7.9% of the stars being misclassified. We demonstrate that, for photographic plate images, the number of galaxies correctly separated from the stars can be increased using our MM diffraction spike tool, which allows 51.0 +/- 6.0% of the high-brightness galaxies that are inseparable in current techniques to be correctly classified, with only 1.4 +/- 0.5% of the high-brightness stars contaminating the population. We demonstrate that elliptical (E) and late-type spiral (Sc-Sd) galaxies can be classified using MM with an accuracy of 91.4 +/- 7.8%. It is a method involving fewer 'free parameters' than current techniques, especially automated machine learning algorithms. The limitation of MM galaxy morphology classification based on seeing and distance is also presented. We examine various star/galaxy differentiation and galaxy morphology classification techniques commonly used today, and show that our MM techniques compare very favourably.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computational methods for the detection of facial palsy

We are developing a telemedicine application which offers automated diagnosis of facial (Bell's) palsy through a Web service. We used a test data set of 43 images of facial palsy patients and 44 normal people to develop the automatic recognition algorithm. Three different image pre-processing methods were used. Machine learning techniques (support vector machine, SVM) were used to examine the difference between the two halves of the face. If there was a sufficient difference, then the SVM recognized facial palsy. Otherwise, if the halves were roughly symmetrical, the SVM classified the image as normal. It was found that the facial palsy images had a greater Hamming Distance than the normal images, indicating greater asymmetry. The median distance in the normal group was 331 (interquartile range 277-435) and the median distance in the facial palsy group was 509 (interquartile range 334-703). This difference was significant (P

Interactive email filtering: Learning from misclassified examples

Learning from mistakes has proven to be an effective way of learning in the interactive document classifications. In this paper we propose an approach to effectively learning from mistakes in the email filtering process. Our system has employed both SVM and Winnow machine learning algorithms to learn from misclassified email documents and refine the email filtering process accordingly. Our experiments have shown that the training of an email filter becomes much effective and faster

Modeling and exploiting behavior patterns in dynamic environments

This paper presents a new approach to improving the effectiveness of autonomous systems that deal with dynamic environments. The basis of the approach is to find repeating patterns of behavior in the dynamic elements of the system, and then to use predictions of the repeating elements to better plan goal directed behavior. It is a layered approach involving classifying, modeling, predicting and exploiting. Classifying involves using observations to place the moving elements into previously defined classes. Modeling involves recording features of the behavior on a coarse grained grid. Exploitation is achieved by integrating predictions from the model into the behavior selection module to improve the utility of the robot's actions. This is in contrast to typical approaches that use the model to select between different strategies or plays. Three methods of adaptation to the dynamic features of the environment are explored. The effectiveness of each method is determined using statistical tests over a number of repeated experiments. The work is presented in the context of predicting opponent behavior in the highly dynamic and multi-agent robot soccer domain (RoboCup)

Exploiting sequence dependencies in the prediction of peroxisomal proteins

Prediction of peroxisomal matrix proteins generally depends on the presence of one of two distinct motifs at the end of the amino acid sequence. PTS1 peroxisomal proteins have a well conserved tripeptide at the C-terminal end. However, the preceding residues in the sequence arguably play a crucial role in targeting the protein to the peroxisome. Previous work in applying machine learning to the prediction of peroxisomal matrix proteins has failed W capitalize on the full extent of these dependencies. We benchmark a range of machine learning algorithms, and show that a classifier - based on the Support Vector Machine - produces more accurate results when dependencies between the conserved motif and the preceding section are exploited. We publish an updated and rigorously curated data set that results in increased prediction accuracy of most tested models.

Playing in continuous spaces: Some analysis and extension of population-based incremental learning

As an alternative to traditional evolutionary algorithms (EAs), population-based incremental learning (PBIL) maintains a probabilistic model of the best individual(s). Originally, PBIL was applied in binary search spaces. Recently, some work has been done to extend it to continuous spaces. In this paper, we review two such extensions of PBIL. An improved version of the PBIL based on Gaussian model is proposed that combines two main features: a new updating rule that takes into account all the individuals and their fitness values and a self-adaptive learning rate parameter. Furthermore, a new continuous PBIL employing a histogram probabilistic model is proposed. Some experiments results are presented that highlight the features of the new algorithms.

Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Classifying an opponent's behaviour in robot soccer

This paper illustrates the prediction of opponent behaviour in a competitive, highly dynamic, multi-agent and partially observableenvironment, namely RoboCup small size league robot soccer. The performance is illustrated in the context of the highly successful robot soccer team, the RoboRoos. The project is broken into three tasks; classification of behaviours, modelling and prediction of behaviours and integration of the predictions into the existing planning system. A probabilistic approach is taken to dealing with the uncertainty in the observations and with representing the uncertainty in the prediction of the behaviours. Results are shown for a classification system using a Naïve Bayesian Network that determines the opponent’s current behaviour. These results are compared to an expert designed fuzzy behaviour classification system. The paper illustrates how the modelling system will use the information from behaviour classification to produce probability distributions that model the manner with which the opponents perform their behaviours. These probability distributions are show to match well with the existing multi-agent planning system (MAPS) that forms the core of the RoboRoos system.

Mechatronic system for performing blood pre-transfusion tests

The blood types determination is essential to perform safe blood transfusions. In emergency situations isadministrated the “universal donor” blood type. However, sometimes, this blood type can cause incom-patibilities in the transfusion receptor. A mechatronic prototype was developed to solve this problem.The prototype was built to meet specific goals, incorporating all the necessary components. The obtainedsolution is close to the final system that will be produced later, at industrial scale, as a medical device.The prototype is a portable and low cost device, and can be used in remote locations. A computer appli-cation, previously developed is used to operate with the developed mechatronic prototype, and obtainautomatically test results. It allows image acquisition, processing and analysis, based on Computer Visionalgorithms, Machine Learning algorithms and deterministic algorithms. The Machine Learning algorithmsenable the classification of occurrence, or alack of agglutination in the mixture (blood/reagents), and amore reliable and a safer methodology as test data are stored in a database. The work developed allowsthe administration of a compatible blood type in emergency situations, avoiding the discontinuity of the“universal donor” blood type stocks, and reducing the occurrence of human errors in the transfusion practice.

User-centred ontology learning for knowledge management

Automatic ontology building is a vital issue in many fields where they are currently built manually. This paper presents a user-centred methodology for ontology construction based on the use of Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing. In our approach, the user selects a corpus of texts and sketches a preliminary ontology (or selects an existing one) for a domain with a preliminary vocabulary associated to the elements in the ontology (lexicalisations). Examples of sentences involving such lexicalisation (e.g. ISA relation) in the corpus are automatically retrieved by the system. Retrieved examples are validated by the user and used by an adaptive Information Extraction system to generate patterns that discover other lexicalisations of the same objects in the ontology, possibly identifying new concepts or relations. New instances are added to the existing ontology or used to tune it. This process is repeated until a satisfactory ontology is obtained. The methodology largely automates the ontology construction process and the output is an ontology with an associated trained leaner to be used for further ontology modifications.

The exact sample complexity of PAC-learning problems with unit VC dimension

The Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension is a combinatorial measure of a certain class of machine learning problems, which may be used to obtain upper and lower bounds on the number of training examples needed to learn to prescribed levels of accuracy. Most of the known bounds apply to the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) framework, which is the framework within which we work in this paper. For a learning problem with some known VC dimension, much is known about the order of growth of the sample-size requirement of the problem, as a function of the PAC parameters. The exact value of sample-size requirement is however less well-known, and depends heavily on the particular learning algorithm being used. This is a major obstacle to the practical application of the VC dimension. Hence it is important to know exactly how the sample-size requirement depends on VC dimension, and with that in mind, we describe a general algorithm for learning problems having VC dimension 1. Its sample-size requirement is minimal (as a function of the PAC parameters), and turns out to be the same for all non-trivial learning problems having VC dimension 1. While the method used cannot be naively generalised to higher VC dimension, it suggests that optimal algorithm-dependent bounds may improve substantially on current upper bounds.

Combining the wavelet transform and forecasting models to predict gas forward prices

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward energy prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi- layer perceptron, linear regression or GARCH. These techniques are applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the wavelet transform. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.