The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

The illusion of control, the structures of prizes and the demand for football pools in Spain

Using data for all the fixtures for the seasons from 1972-73 to 2002-03, we estimate a dynamic model of demand for football pools in Spain paying attention to whether their main economic explanatory variable is the effective price of a ticket or the jackpot. Additionally, we evaluate the importance of the composition of the list of games in terms of whether First Division matches are included or not. Results show that the jackpot model is preferred to the effective price model, having important implications in terms of how the structure of the game should be changed in order to increase demand.

Total exposure and exposure rate effects for alcohol and smoking and risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis of case-control studies.

Although cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption increase risk for head and neck cancers, there have been few attempts to model risks quantitatively and to formally evaluate cancer site-specific risks. The authors pooled data from 15 case-control studies and modeled the excess odds ratio (EOR) to assess risk by total exposure (pack-years and drink-years) and its modification by exposure rate (cigarettes/day and drinks/day). The smoking analysis included 1,761 laryngeal, 2,453 pharyngeal, and 1,990 oral cavity cancers, and the alcohol analysis included 2,551 laryngeal, 3,693 pharyngeal, and 3,116 oval cavity cancers, with over 8,000 controls. Above 15 cigarettes/day, the EOR/pack-year decreased with increasing cigarettes/day, suggesting that greater cigarettes/day for a shorter duration was less deleterious than fewer cigarettes/day for a longer duration. Estimates of EOR/pack-year were homogeneous across sites, while the effects of cigarettes/day varied, indicating that the greater laryngeal cancer risk derived from differential cigarettes/day effects and not pack-years. EOR/drink-year estimates increased through 10 drinks/day, suggesting that greater drinks/day for a shorter duration was more deleterious than fewer drinks/day for a longer duration. Above 10 drinks/day, data were limited. EOR/drink-year estimates varied by site, while drinks/day effects were homogeneous, indicating that the greater pharyngeal/oral cavity cancer risk with alcohol consumption derived from the differential effects of drink-years and not drinks/day.

Gene expression profiling of human glioblastomas for the identification of predictive factors and characterisation of molecular mechanism implicated in response to therapy and outcome

ABSTRACT Poor outcome for glioblastoma patients is largely due to resistance to chemoradiation therapy. While epigenetic inactivation of MGMT mediated DNA repair is highly predictive for benefit from the alkylating agent therapy Temozolomide, additional mechanisms for resistance associated with molecular alterations exist. Furthermore, new concepts in cancer suggest that resistance to treatment may be linked to cancer stem cells that escape therapy and act as source for tumour recurrence. We determined gene expression signatures associated with outcome in glioblastoma patients enrolled in a phase II and phase III clinical trial establishing the new combination therapy of radiation plus concomitant and adjuvant Temozolomide. Correlating stable gene clusters emerging from unsupervised analysis with survival of 42 treated patients identified a number of biological processes associated with outcome. Most prominent, a gene cluster dominated by HOX genes and comprising PROM1, was associated with resistance. PROM1 encodes CD133, a marker for a subpopulation of tumour cells enriched for glioblastoma stem- like cells. The core of this correlated HOX cluster was comprised in the top genes of a "self-renewal signature" defined in a mouse model for MLL-AF9 initiated leukaemia. The association of the HOX gene cluster with tumour resistance was confirmed in two external data sets of 146 malignant glioma As additional resistance factors we identified over-expression of the epidermal growth factor receptor gene, EGFR, while increased gene expression related to biological features of tumour host interaction, including markers for tumour vascular and cell adhesion, and innate immune response, were associated with better outcome. The "self-renewal" signature associated with resistance to the new combination chemoradiation therapy provides first clinical evidence that glioma stem like cells may implicated in resistance in a uniformly treated cohort of glioblastoma patients. This study underlines the need to target the tumour stem cell compartment, and provides some testable hypothesis for biological mechanisms relevant for malignant behaviour of glioblastoma that may be targeted in new treatment approaches. Résumé Le glioblastome, tumeur cérébrale primaire maligne la plus fréquente, est connue pour son mauvais pronostique. Des avancées chimiothérapeutiques récentes avec des agents alkylants comme le témozolomide (TMZ), ont permis une amélioration notable dans la survie de certains patients. Les bénéficiaires ont la caractéristique commune de présenter une particularité génétique, la methylation du MGMT (methylguanine methyltransferase). Néanmoins, d'autres mécanismes de résistance en fonction des aberrations moléculaires existent. Nous avons établi les profils d'expressions génétiques des patients traités par irradiation et TMZ dans des études cliniques de phase II et III. En combinant des méthodes non-supervisées et supervisées, de l'étude de la cohorte des patients traités nous avons découvert des groupes de gènes associés à la survie. Un ensemble de gènes contenant les gènes Hox semble lié au mécanisme de résistance au traitement. Récemment, les gènes Hox ont été décrits comme faisant partie d"une signature d'autorenouvellement (self-renewal) des cellules souches cancéreuses de la leucémie. L'autorenouvellement est un processus grâce auquel les cellules souches se maintiennent tout au long de la vie. Cette association à la résistance est confirmée dans deux autres études indépendantes. Un autre facteur de résistance au traitement est la surexpression du gène EGFR. D'autre part, deux groupes de gènes associés à la relation entre hôte-tumeur tels que les marqueurs des vaisseaux tumoraux et de la réponse immunitaire innée s'avèrent avoir un effet positif sur la survie des patients traités. La découverte de la signature d'autorenouvellement comme facteur de résistance à la nouvelle chimio-radiothérapie offre une preuve clinique que les cellules souches cancéreuses sont impliquées dans la résistance au traitement. If est donc logique de penser que le traitement ciblé contre des cellules souches cancéreuses va dans l'avenir permettre des thérapies anticancéreuses plus performantes.

Radioimmunotherapy of human colon carcinoma by 131I-labelled monoclonal anti-CEA antibodies in a nude mouse model.

A mixture of 3 MAbs directed against 3 different CEA epitopes was radiolabelled with 131I and used for the treatment of a human colon carcinoma transplanted s.c. into nude mice. Intact MAbs and F(ab')2 fragments were mixed because it had been shown by autoradiography that these 2 antibody forms can penetrate into different areas of the tumor nodule. Ten days after transplantation of colon tumor T380 a single dose of 600 microCi of 131I MAbs was injected i.v. The tumor grafts were well established (as evidenced by exponential growth in untreated mice) and their size continued to increase up to 6 days after radiolabelled antibody injection. Tumor shrinking was then observed lasting for 4-12 weeks. In a control group injected with 600 microCi of 131I coupled to irrelevant monoclonal IgG, tumor growth was delayed, but no regression was observed. Tumors of mice injected with the corresponding amount of unlabelled antibodies grew like those of untreated mice. Based on measurements of the effective whole-body half-life of injected 131I, the mean radiation dose received by the animals was calculated to be 382 rads for the antibody group and 478 rads for the normal IgG controls. The genetically immunodeficient animals exhibited no increase in mortality, and only limited bone-marrow toxicity was observed. Direct measurement of radioactivity in mice dissected 1, 3 and 7 days after 131I-MAb injection showed that 25, 7.2 and 2.2% of injected dose were recovered per gram of tumor, the mean radiation dose delivered to the tumor being thus more than 5,000 rads. These experiments show that therapeutic doses of radioactivity can be selectively directed to human colon carcinoma by i.v. injection of 131I-labelled anti-CEA MAbs.

Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita: A predictive density approach

The paper proposes a technique to jointly test for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parameters of each group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income per-capita. The approach uses the predictive density of the data, conditional on the parameters of the model. The steady state distribution of European regional data clusters around four poles of attraction with different economic features. The distribution of incomeper-capita of OECD countries has two poles of attraction and each grouphas clearly identifiable economic characteristics.

Dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis, related with temperature, density and concentration of insecticide

The dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus, (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis has been related with the temperature, density and concentration of the insecticide. A mathematical model for biological control of Aedes aegypti with Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis (Bti) was constructed by using data from the literature regarding the biology of the vector. The life cycle was described by differential equations. Lethal concentrations (LC50 and LC95) of Bti were determined in the laboratory under different experimental conditions. Temperature, colony, larvae density and bioinsecticide concentration presented marked differences in the analysis of the whole set of variables; although when analyzed individually, only the temperature and concentration showed changes. The simulations indicated an inverse relationship between temperature and mosquito population, nonetheless, faster growth of populations is reached at higher temperatures. As conclusion, the model suggests the use of integrated control strategies for immature and adult mosquitoes in order to achieve a reduction of Aedes aegypti.

Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

A new alternative method for testing skin irritation using a human skin model: a pilot study.

Studies assessing skin irritation to chemicals have traditionally used laboratory animals; however, such methods are questionable regarding their relevance for humans. New in vitro methods have been validated, such as the reconstructed human epidermis (RHE) model (Episkin®, Epiderm®). The comparison (accuracy) with in vivo results such as the 4-h human patch test (HPT) is 76% at best (Epiderm®). There is a need to develop an in vitro method that better simulates the anatomo-pathological changes encountered in vivo. To develop an in vitro method to determine skin irritation using human viable skin through histopathology, and compare the results of 4 tested substances to the main in vitro methods and in vivo animal method (Draize test). Human skin removed during surgery was dermatomed and mounted on an in vitro flow-through diffusion cell system. Ten chemicals with known non-irritant (heptylbutyrate, hexylsalicylate, butylmethacrylate, isoproturon, bentazon, DEHP and methylisothiazolinone (MI)) and irritant properties (folpet, 1-bromohexane and methylchloroisothiazolinone (MCI/MI)), a negative control (sodiumchloride) and a positive control (sodiumlaurylsulphate) were applied. The skin was exposed at least for 4h. Histopathology was performed to investigate irritation signs (spongiosis, necrosis, vacuolization). We obtained 100% accuracy with the HPT model; 75% with the RHE models and 50% with the Draize test for 4 tested substances. The coefficients of variation (CV) between our three test batches were <0.1, showing good reproducibility. Furthermore, we reported objectively histopathological irritation signs (irritation scale): strong (folpet), significant (1-bromohexane), slight (MCI/MI at 750/250ppm) and none (isoproturon, bentazon, DEHP and MI). This new in vitro test method presented effective results for the tested chemicals. It should be further validated using a greater number of substances; and tested in different laboratories in order to suitably evaluate reproducibility.

Flora exótica de Cabo Verde: avaliação e impactos nos ecossistemas naturais, utilizando sistemas de informação geográfica

O impacto das espécies exóticas e a sua acção nociva sobre a flora nativa torna-se especialmente preocupante em ecossistemas insulares degradados. Tendo em conta a preservação e conservação da biodiversidade das ilhas de Cabo Verde pretende-se com este estudo avaliar o impacto que algumas espécies exóticas exercem sobre os ecossistemas naturais, tendo como modelo de estudo a maior ilha do arquipélago, a ilha de Santiago. Faz-se inicialmente uma breve caracterização da flora exótica do arquipélago, estimada em 397 taxa, tendo em conta o tipo biológico, origem biogeográfica, tipo de utilização, distribuição pelas ilhas e ecologia. Com o objectivo de melhor compreender como a distribuição das espécies exóticas pode evoluir na ilha de Santiago, procedeu-se à modelação de quatro espécies com características invasoras (Bidens bipinnata, Euphorbia heterophylla, Furcraea foetida e Lantana camara) usando metodologias de regressão logística. Os modelos produzidos permitiram a produção de mapas de probabilidade de ocorrência das espécies em estudo, utilizando para isso sistemas de informação geográfica. A aplicação destes métodos permitiu por um lado conhecer algumas das variáveis que afectam a distribuição das espécies exóticas (e.g. precipitação; NDVI; exposição NE; distância às ribeiras; altitude), e por outro lado, produzir mapas da ilha de Santiago, que permitiram revelar quais as zonas com maior probabilidade de ocorrência dessas espécies. Os nossos resultados indicam que as zonas de altitude (e.g. Serra do Pico da Antónia; Monte Graciosa; Serra da Malagueta) são especialmente vulneráveis à ocorrência de espécies invasoras, o que se torna particularmente preocupante pois correspondem a zonas demarcadas como áreas protegidas, sendo locais primordiais de distribuição para a flora endémica do arquipélago. Por fim, sugerem-se algumas medidas de gestão e controlo de espécies invasoras de modo a que a sua implementação permita que num futuro, que se espera próximo, recuperar estes ecossistemas insulares que se encontram muito degradados.

Genomewide association study using a high-density single nucleotide polymorphism array and case-control design identifies a novel essential hypertension susceptibility locus in the promoter region of endothelial NO synthase.

Essential hypertension is a multifactorial disorder and is the main risk factor for renal and cardiovascular complications. The research on the genetics of hypertension has been frustrated by the small predictive value of the discovered genetic variants. The HYPERGENES Project investigated associations between genetic variants and essential hypertension pursuing a 2-stage study by recruiting cases and controls from extensively characterized cohorts recruited over many years in different European regions. The discovery phase consisted of 1865 cases and 1750 controls genotyped with 1M Illumina array. Best hits were followed up in a validation panel of 1385 cases and 1246 controls that were genotyped with a custom array of 14 055 markers. We identified a new hypertension susceptibility locus (rs3918226) in the promoter region of the endothelial NO synthase gene (odds ratio: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.37-1.73]; combined P=2.58 · 10(-13)). A meta-analysis, using other in silico/de novo genotyping data for a total of 21 714 subjects, resulted in an overall odds ratio of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.25-1.44; P=1.032 · 10(-14)). The quantitative analysis on a population-based sample revealed an effect size of 1.91 (95% CI: 0.16-3.66) for systolic and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.25-2.55) for diastolic blood pressure. We identified in silico a potential binding site for ETS transcription factors directly next to rs3918226, suggesting a potential modulation of endothelial NO synthase expression. Biological evidence links endothelial NO synthase with hypertension, because it is a critical mediator of cardiovascular homeostasis and blood pressure control via vascular tone regulation. This finding supports the hypothesis that there may be a causal genetic variation at this locus.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

The predictive value of trabecular bone score (TBS) on whole lumbar vertebrae mechanics: an ex vivo study.

We investigated the association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with microarchitecture and mechanical behavior of human lumbar vertebrae. We found that TBS reflects vertebral trabecular microarchitecture and is an independent predictor of vertebral mechanics. However, the addition of TBS to areal BMD (aBMD) did not significantly improve prediction of vertebral strength. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level measure of texture using a modified experimental variogram which can be extracted from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The current study aimed to confirm whether TBS is associated with trabecular microarchitecture and mechanics of human lumbar vertebrae, and if its combination with BMD improves prediction of fracture risk. METHODS: Lumbar vertebrae (L3) were harvested fresh from 16 donors. The anteroposterior and lateral bone mineral content (BMC) and areal BMD (aBMD) of the vertebral body were measured using DXA; then, the TBS was extracted using TBS iNsight software (Medimaps SA, France). The trabecular bone volume (Tb.BV/tissue volume, TV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), degree of anisotropy, and structure model index (SMI) were measured using microcomputed tomography. Quasi-static uniaxial compressive testing was performed on L3 vertebral bodies to assess failure load and stiffness. RESULTS: The TBS was significantly correlated to Tb.BV/TV and SMI (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.58 and -0.62; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02, 0.01), but not related to BMC and BMD. TBS was significantly correlated with stiffness (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.64; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.007), independently of bone mass. Using stepwise multiple regression models, we failed to demonstrate that the combination of BMD and TBS was better at explaining mechanical behavior than either variable alone. However, the combination TBS, Tb.Th, and BMC did perform better than each parameter alone, explaining 79 % of the variability in stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, TBS was associated with microarchitecture parameters and with vertebral mechanical behavior, but TBS did not improve prediction of vertebral biomechanical properties in addition to aBMD.

Mesenteric fat-control site for bacterial translocation in colitis?

In Crohn's disease bacteria could be detected in the adjacent mesenteric fat characterized by hypertrophy of unknown function. This study aimed to define effector responses of this compartment induced by bacterial translocation during intestinal inflammation. Dextran sulfate sodium-induced colitis served as a model of intestinal inflammation. Translocation of peptides and bacteria into mesenteric fat was evaluated. Innate functions of mesenteric fat and epithelium were characterized at whole tissue, cellular, and effector molecule levels. Orally applied peptides translocated in healthy wild-type (WT) mice. Bacterial translocation was not detected in healthy and acute but increased in chronic colitis. Mesenteric fat from colitic mice released elevated levels of cytokines and was infiltrated by immune cells. In MyD88(-/-) mice bacterial translocation occurred in health and increased in colitis. The exaggerated cytokine production in mesenteric fat accompanying colonic inflammation in WT mice was less distinct in MyD88(-/-) mice. In vitro studies revealed that fat not only increases cytokine production following contact with bacterial products, but also that preadipocytes are potent phagocytes. Colonic inflammation is accompanied by massive cytokine production and immune cell infiltration in adjacent adipose tissue. These effects can be considered as protective mechanisms of the mesenteric fat in the defense of bacterial translocation.