The Aggregate Demand for Private Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S.

This paper estimates the aggregate demand for private health insurance coverage in the U.S. using an error-correction model and by recognizing that people are without private health insurance for voluntary, structural, frictional, and cyclical reasons and because of public alternatives. Insurance coverage is measured both by the percentage of the population enrolled in private health insurance plans and the completeness of the insurance coverage. Annual data for the period 1966-1999 are used and both short and long run price and income elasticities of demand are estimated. The empirical findings indicate that both private insurance enrollment and completeness are relatively inelastic with respect to changes in price and income in the short and long run. Moreover, private health insurance enrollment is found to be inversely related to the poverty rate, particularly in the short-run. Finally, our results suggest that an increase in the number cyclically uninsured generates less of a welfare loss than an increase in the structurally uninsured.

The Real Exchange Rate in Small Open Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

We examine the effects of the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differential on the real exchange rate in a sample of small open developed economies. We employ cointegration analysis to search for possible long-term linkages. We find that while both the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differentials affect the real exchange rate in the long run, the role of the terms of trade generally proves more consistent across countries. The speed of adjustment for the expected real interest rate differential in the error-correction model, however, is quantitatively larger than it is for the terms of trade.

Nonparametric Measures of Capacity Utilization: A Dual Approach

This paper develops a nonparametric method of obtaining the minimum of the long run average cost curve of a firm to define its capacity output. This provides a benchmark for measuring of capacity utilization at the observed output level of the firm. In the case of long run constant returns to scale, the minimum of the short run average cost curve is determined to measure short run capacity utilization. An empirical application measures yearly rates of capacity utilization in U.S. manufacturing over the period 1968-1998. Nonparametric determination of the short run average cost curve under variable returns to scale using an iterative search procedure is described in an appendix to this paper.

Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience

This paper explores the dynamic linkages that portray different facets of the joint probability distribution of stock market returns in NAFTA (i.e., Canada, Mexico, and the US). Our examination of interactions of the NAFTA stock markets considers three issues. First, we examine the long-run relationship between the three markets, using cointegration techniques. Second, we evaluate the dynamic relationships between the three markets, using impulse-response analysis. Finally, we explore the volatility transmission process between the three markets, using a variety of multivariate GARCH models. Our results also exhibit significant volatility transmission between the second moments of the NAFTA stock markets, albeit not homogenous. The magnitude and trend of the conditional correlations indicate that in the last few years, the Mexican stock market exhibited a tendency toward increased integration with the US market. Finally, we do note that evidence exists that the Peso and Asian financial crises as well as the stock-market crash in the US affect the return and volatility time-series relationships.

Which School Attributes Matter? The Influence of School District Performance and Demographic Composition on Property Values

Increasing levels of segregation in American schools raises the question: do home buyers pay for test scores or demographic composition? This paper uses Connecticut panel data spanning eleven years from 1994 to 2004 to ascertain the relationship between property values and explanatory variables that include school district performance and demographic attributes, such as racial and ethnic composition of the student body. Town and census tract fixed effects are included to control for neighborhood unobservables. The effect of changes in school district attributes is also examined over a decade long time frame in order to focus on the effect of long run changes, which are more likely to be capitalized into prices. The study finds strong evidence that increases in percent Hispanic has a negative effect on housing prices in Connecticut, but mixed evidence concerning the impact of test scores on property values. Evidence is also found to suggest that student test scores have increased in importance for explaining housing prices in recent years while the importance of percent Hispanic has declined. Finally, the study finds that estimates of property tax capitalization increase substantially when the analysis focuses on long run changes.

Countervailing Duties in the USA

This paper reveals the characteristics of the ITC's decisions on countervailing duties, which have seldom been studied. The empirical evidences based on time series data show that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between affirmative countervailing decisions and macroeconomic variables such as economic growth rates and import penetration ratios. The error correction models show that there is a unidirectional causality from affirmative countervailing decisions to slower economic growth.

A General Schema for Optimal Monetary Policymaking: Objectives and Rules

This paper examines four equivalent methods of optimal monetary policymaking, committing to the social loss function, using discretion with the central bank long-run and short-run loss functions, and following monetary policy rules. All lead to optimal economic performance. The same performance emerges from these different policymaking methods because the central bank actually follows the same (similar) policy rules. These objectives (the social loss function, the central bank long-run and short-run loss functions) and monetary policy rules imply a complete regime for optimal policy making. The central bank long-run and short-run loss functions that produce the optimal policy with discretion differ from the social loss function. Moreover, the optimal policy rule emerges from the optimization of these different central bank loss functions.

Stagnation and Change in Islamic History

There appear to be two seemingly contradictory images of economic change in the Islamic World and mixed evidence on whether Islamic societies have been open or conservative against modern ideas, technological advancements, and legal developments. Whereas a conservative attitude has been dominant in some societies and time periods, Muslims were at the forefront of scientific, technological, and legal developments in others. Rather than rely on ad hoc assumptions about the attitudes and characteristics of societies or the inherent qualities of new developments, this paper explains attitudes towards change by studying the political economy of the relationship between the rulers and the legal community. I extend recent theories of endogenous institutional change to develop a framework based on how rulers and legal community reacted to new developments immediately and how their strategic interaction unleashed an endogenous process toward change in the long run. Using this framework, I identify conditions under which new ideas, technologies, and legal developments have resulted in immediate change in Islamic societies. I also examine the process of change in the long run, whether and how immediate outcomes could be sustained over time as strategic interaction continued repeatedly.

Performance in healthcare organizations: The quality dimension

In the context of a healthcare organization, such as a hospital that provides medical care to its community, performance cannot be measured without special attention to quality. Indeed, quality is as important as finance not only in measuring performance for the organization, but also in securing the organization's viability and competitiveness in the long run.^ Yet quality today is not adequately understood and managed. An inductive framework for integrating finance and quality for purposes of organizational performance measurement as well as strategic planning is proposed in this dissertation. Future areas of research are discussed.^

Usage of Urinary Antigen Test for Legionella on diagnosed community-acquired pneumonia in San Antonio hospitals

Purpose. To evaluate the use of the Legionella Urine Antigen Test as a cost effective method for diagnosing Legionnaires’ disease in five San Antonio Hospitals from January 2007 to December 2009. ^ Methods. The data reported by five San Antonio hospitals to the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District during a 3-year retrospective study (January 2007 to December 2009) were evaluated for the frequency of non-specific pneumonia infections, the number of Legionella Urine Antigen Tests performed, and the percentage of positive cases of Legionnaires’ disease diagnosed by the Legionella Urine Antigen Test.^ Results. There were a total of 7,087 cases of non-specific pneumonias reported across the five San Antonio hospitals studied from 2007 to 2009. A total of 5,371 Legionella Urine Antigen Tests were performed from January, 2007 to December, 2009 across the five San Antonio hospitals in the study. A total of 38 positive cases of Legionnaires’ disease were identified by the use of Legionella Urinary Antigen Test from 2007-2009.^ Conclusions. In spite of the limitations of this study in obtaining sufficient relevant data to evaluate the cost effectiveness of Legionella Urinary Antigen Test in diagnosing Legionnaires’ disease, the Legionella Urinary Antigen Test is simple, accurate, faster, as results can be obtained within minutes to hours; and convenient because it can be performed in emergency room department to any patient who presents with the clinical signs or symptoms of pneumonia. Over the long run, it remains to be shown if this test may decrease mortality, lower total medical costs by decreasing the number of broad-spectrum antibiotics prescribed, shorten patient wait time/hospital stay, and decrease the need for unnecessary ancillary testing, and improve overall patient outcomes.^

The Chilean wheat market and its price support mechanism : a spatial market integration analysis

This research investigates the spatial market integration of the Chilean wheat market in relation with its most representative international markets by using a vector error correction model (VECM) and how a price support policy, as a price band, affect it. The international market was characterized by two relevant wheat prices: PAN from Argentina and Hard Red Winter from the United States. The spatial market integration level, expressed in the error correction term (ECT), allowed concluding that there is a high integration degree among these markets with a variable influence of the price band mechanism mainly related with its estimation methodology. Moreover, this paper showed that Chile can be seen as price taker as long as the speed of its adjustment to international shocks, being these reactions faster than in the United States and Argentina. Finally, the results validated the "Law of the One Price", which assumes price equalization across all local markets in the long run.

Evolución de precios agrarios percibidos y pagados por el agricultor en España (2000-2009)

La evolución de los precios de los alimentos en años recientes se ha evaluado en numerosos estudios considerando: el análisis de los márgenes comerciales y la evolución temporal de los precios, si bien, la mayoría de ellos centrados en la óptica del consumidor. En este artículo se analizó la evolución temporal de los precios de los alimentos en España en el período 2000-2009 desde el punto de vista del agricultor y ganadero. Concretamente se utilizó información relacionada con los precios percibidos, precios pagados y el índice de precios de consumo (IPC), y con técnicas de análisis de series temporales se analizó la existencia de relaciones de equilibrio a largo plazo entre las series. Los resultados reflejan una relación de equilibrio a largo plazo entre: los precios percibidos y pagados; el IPC y los precios percibidos. Las principales conclusiones muestran que, a pesar de los desequilibrios existentes a corto plazo, a largo plazo los precios percibidos y pagados tienden a una situación de equilibrio. Un elemento importante en la evolución del IPC lo constituyen los precios percibidos por los productos en el sector primario. Sin embargo, la fijación de los precios de los insumos (pagados) en el sector primario; lejos de regirse en el largo plazo por la evolución del IPC; no muestra una relación significativa con dicho indicador.

Radiocarbon ages and diatom abundance in samples obtained from Qarlikturvik Valley, Bylot Island

The formation of many arctic wetlands is associated with the occurrence of polygon-patterned permafrost. Existing scenarios to describe and explain surface landforms in arctic wetlands (low-center and high-center polygons and polygon ponds) invoke competing hypotheses: a cyclic succession (the thaw-lake hypothesis) or a linear succession (terrestrialization). Both hypotheses infer the predictable development of polygon-patterned wetlands over millennia. However, very few studies have applied paleoecological techniques to reconstruct long-term succession in tundra wetlands and thereby test the validity of existing hypotheses. This paper uses the paleoecological record of diatoms to investigate long-term development of individual polygons in a High Arctic wetland. Two landform processes were examined: (1) the millennial-scale development of a polygon-pond, and (2) the transition from low-center to erosive high-center polygons. Diatom assemblages were quantified from habitats associated with contrasting landforms in the present-day landscape, and used as an analog to reconstruct past transitions between polygon types. On the basis of this evidence, the paleoecological record does not support either of the existing models describing the predictable succession of polygon landforms in an arctic wetland. Our results indicate a need for greater paleoecological understanding, in combination with in situ observations in present-day geomorphology, in order to identify patterns of polygon wetland development and elucidate the long-term drivers of these landform transitions.

Clay mineral and stratigraphic record of two sediment cores from the Aegean Sea

Different source areas, oceanography and climate regimes influenced the clay mineral assemblages and grain size distribution of two sediment cores from the North and South Aegean Sea during the last glacial and the Holocene. In the North Aegean Sea, clay mineral composition is mainly controlled by sea level evolution, melting of southeastern European glaciers, and establishment of the connection between the Black Sea and Aegean Sea. The long-term development of clay mineral assemblages in the South Aegean Sea reflects changes in the Nile discharge and African dust input. At this site, the establishment of pluvial conditions in the Nile catchment during the early to middle Holocene resulted in a substantial rise in smectite/illite ratios. In the late Holocene, stepwise aridification of the southern borderlands caused an increase in windblown sediment material and a decrease in Nile suspended material. The clay mineral records exhibit periodic millennial-scale fluctuations. In the North Aegean Sea, the changes are centred at a period of 1.3-1.8 ka and can be attributed to short-term climate and weathering changes in the northern borderlands. The changes in the South Aegean Sea are centred at periods of 3.2-4.3, 1.9-2.4 and 1.3-1.7 ka reflecting short-term changes in wind strength and Northeast African hydrology.

Abundance and biomass of in- and epibenthic invertebrate macrofauna in the German Bight from 1969 to 2000

In order to examine the long-term development of offshore macrozoobenthic soft-bottom communities of the German Bight, four representative permanent stations (MZB-SSd, -FSd, -Slt, -WB) have been sampled continuously since 1969. Inter-annual variability and possible long-term trends were analysed based on spring-time samples from 1969 until 2000. This is part of the ecological long-term series of the AWI and is supplemented by periodic large-scale mapping of the benthos. The main factors influencing the development of the benthic communities are biological interactions, climate, food supply (eutrophication) and the disturbance regime. The most frequent disturbances are sediment relocations during strong storms or by bottom trawling, while occasional oxygen deficiencies and extremely cold winters are important disturbance events working on a much larger scale. Benthic communities at the sampling stations show a large inter-annual variability combined with a variation on a roughly decadal scale. In accordance with large-scale system shifts reported for the North Sea, benthic community transitions occurred between roughly the 1970ies, 80ies and 90ies. The transitions between periods are not distinctly marked by strong changes but rather reflected in gradual changes of the species composition and dominance structure.