Scotland: A New Fiscal Settlement

Executive Summary Many commentators have criticised the strategy currently used to finance the Scottish Parliament – both the block grant system, and the small degree of fiscal autonomy devised in the Calman report and the UK government’s 2009 White Paper. Nevertheless, fiscal autonomy has now been conceded in principle. This paper sets out to identify formally what level of autonomy would be best for the Scottish economy and the institutional changes needed to support that arrangement. Our conclusions are in line with the Steel Commission: that significantly more fiscal powers need to be transferred to Scotland. But what we can then do, which the Steel Commission could not, is to give a detailed blueprint for how this proposal might be implemented in practice. We face two problems. The existing block grant system can and has been criticised from such a wide variety of points of view that it effectively has no credibility left. On the other hand, the Calman proposals (and the UK government proposals that followed) are unworkable because, to function, they require information that the policy makers cannot possibly have; and because, without borrowing for current activities, they contain no mechanism to reconcile contractual spending (most of the budget) with variable revenue flows – which is to invite an eventual breakdown. But in its attempt to fix these problems, the UK White Paper introduces three further difficulties: new grounds for quarrels between the UK and Scottish governments, a long term deflation bias, and a loss of devolution.

Interest Rate Co-movements, Global Factors and the Long End of the Term Spread

The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007); or a global savings glut (e.g Bernanke, 2005) may be responsible. In this paper, we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to document the disconnect and link it explicitly to the existence of a global latent factor that dominates the long end of the term spread for the recent period; the saving glut story emerges as the most likely contender for the global factor.

Long-term fluctuation of relative afferent pupillary defect in subjects with normal visual function.

PURPOSE: To determine whether the relative afferent pupillary defect (RAPD) remains constant over time in normal subjects. METHODS: Seventeen normal subjects were tested with infrared pupillography and automated perimetry in four sessions over 3 years. The changes in RAPD and visual field asymmetry between testing sessions were compared. RESULTS: The range of RAPD was 0.0 to 0.3 log unit, and the difference in the mean deviation between the eyes on automated static perimetry was 0 to 3 dB. Eight subjects repeatedly had an RAPD in the same eye. There was no correlation between the RAPD and the visual field asymmetry at the same visit. Changes in the magnitude of the RAPD between any two sessions were typically small (median, 0.08 log unit; 25th percentile, 0.04 log unit; 75th percentile, 0.15 log unit). CONCLUSIONS: Some normal subjects may show a persistent but small RAPD in the absence of detectable pathologic disease. Therefore, an isolated RAPD in the range of 0.3 log unit that is not associated with any other significant historical or clinical finding should probably be considered benign.

GLUTX1, a novel mammalian glucose transporter expressed in the central nervous system and insulin-sensitive tissues.

Based on homology with GLUT1-5, we have isolated a cDNA for a novel glucose transporter, GLUTX1. This cDNA encodes a protein of 478 amino acids that shows between 29 and 32% identity with rat GLUT1-5 and 32-36% identity with plant and bacterial hexose transporters. Unlike GLUT1-5, GLUTX1 has a short extracellular loop between transmembrane domain (TM) 1 and TM2 and a long extracellular loop between TM9 and TM10 that contains the only N-glycosylation site. When expressed in Xenopus oocytes, GLUTX1 showed strong transport activity only after suppression of a dileucine internalization motif present in the amino-terminal region. Transport activity was inhibited by cytochalasin B and partly competed by D-fructose and D-galactose. The Michaelis-Menten constant for glucose was approximately 2 mM. When translated in reticulocytes lysates, GLUTX1 migrates as a 35-kDa protein that becomes glycosylated in the presence of microsomal membranes. Western blot analysis of GLUTX1 transiently expressed in HEK293T cells revealed a diffuse band with a molecular mass of 37-50 kDa that could be converted to a approximately 35-kDa polypeptide following enzymatic deglycosylation. Immunofluorescence microscopy detection of GLUTX1 transfected into HEK293T cells showed an intracellular staining. Mutation of the dileucine internalization motif induced expression of GLUTX1 at the cell surface. GLUTX1 mRNA was detected in testis, hypothalamus, cerebellum, brainstem, hippocampus, and adrenal gland. We hypothesize that, in a similar fashion to GLUT4, in vivo cell surface expression of GLUTX1 may be inducible by a hormonal or other stimulus.

Native-like, long synthetic peptides as components of sub-unit vaccines: practical and theoretical considerations for their use in humans.

Vaccines have been used as a successful tool in medicine by way of controlling many major diseases. In spite of this, vaccines today represent only a handful of all infectious diseases. Therefore, there is a pressing demand for improvements of existing vaccines with particular reference to higher efficacy and undisputed safety profiles. To this effect, as an alternative to available vaccine technologies, there has been a drive to develop vaccine candidate polypeptides by chemical synthesis. In our laboratory, we have recently developed a technology to manufacture long synthetic peptides of up to 130 residues, which are correctly folded and biologically active. This paper discusses the advantages of the molecularly defined, long synthetic peptide approach in the context of vaccine design, development and use in human vaccination.

The Long Term Prospects for Activity in the UK Continental Shelf

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 119

Short and long-term effects of azadirachtin A on development and egg production of Rhodnius prolixus

Azadirachtin A was given through a blood meal to 4th-instar larvae and to adult females of Rhodnius prolixus. Development (ecdysis) and egg production were inhibited in a dose-dependent manner. Long-term experiments with subsequent four feedings on azadirachtin-free blood were performed with 4th-instar larvae and with adult females. Only in the low-dose azadirachtin larval groups (0.01 and 0.1 microng/ml of blood), development was partially restored; after a single 1.0 microng/ml treatment about 50% of the treated larvae were still alive 120 days later without any adult emergence. Similarly fed females had a dose-dependent lower survival and egg deposition rate. The results are discussed in relation to the mode of azadirachtin A action.

Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk under inflation and price-level targeting

This paper presents a DSGE model in which long run inflation risk matters for social welfare. Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk are assessed under two monetary regimes: inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT). These effects differ because IT implies base-level drift in the price level, while PT makes the price level stationary around a target price path. Under IT, the welfare cost of long run inflation risk is equal to 0.35 percent of aggregate consumption. Under PT, where long run inflation risk is largely eliminated, it is lowered to only 0.01 per cent. There are welfare gains from PT because it raises average consumption for the young and lowers consumption risk substantially for the old. These results are strongly robust to changes in the PT target horizon and fairly robust to imperfect credibility, fiscal policy, and model calibration. While the distributional effects of an unexpected transition to PT are sizeable, they are short-lived and not welfare-reducing.

Plasma cell precursors: long-distance travelers looking for a home.

Little is known about the migration of plasma cell precursors to the lymph node medulla. In this issue of Immunity, Fooksman et al. (2010) propose that this migration is largely independent of chemotactic cues but follows a long linear walk of random orientation.

Scheduled Service Versus Personal Transportation: The Role of Distance

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship be- tween frequency of scheduled transportation services and their substitutability with personal transportation (using distance as a proxy). We study the interaction between a monopoly firm providing a high-speed scheduled service and private transportation (i.e., car). Interestingly, the carrier chooses to increase the frequency of service on longer routes when competing with personal transportation because by providing higher frequency (at extra cost) it can also charge higher fares which can boost its profits. However, in line with the results of earlier studies, frequency decreases for longer flights when driving is not a viable option. An empirical application of our analysis to the European airline industry confirms the predictions of our theoretical model. Keywords: short-haul routes; long-haul routes; flight frequency; distance JEL Classification Numbers: L13; L2; L93

Low-frequency drug-resistant HIV-1 and risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART: a multicohort European case-control study using centralized ultrasensitive 454 pyrosequencing.

OBJECTIVES: It is still debated if pre-existing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (MVs) affect the virological outcomes of first-line NNRTI-containing ART. METHODS: This Europe-wide case-control study included ART-naive subjects infected with drug-susceptible HIV-1 as revealed by population sequencing, who achieved virological suppression on first-line ART including one NNRTI. Cases experienced virological failure and controls were subjects from the same cohort whose viraemia remained suppressed at a matched time since initiation of ART. Blinded, centralized 454 pyrosequencing with parallel bioinformatic analysis in two laboratories was used to identify MVs in the 1%-25% frequency range. ORs of virological failure according to MV detection were estimated by logistic regression. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty samples (76 cases and 184 controls), mostly subtype B (73.5%), were used for the analysis. Identical MVs were detected in the two laboratories. 31.6% of cases and 16.8% of controls harboured pre-existing MVs. Detection of at least one MV versus no MVs was associated with an increased risk of virological failure (OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.35-5.60, P = 0.005); similar associations were observed for at least one MV versus no NRTI MVs (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 0.76-6.77, P = 0.140) and at least one MV versus no NNRTI MVs (OR = 2.41, 95% CI = 1.12-5.18, P = 0.024). A dose-effect relationship between virological failure and mutational load was found. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing MVs more than double the risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART.

The age of movements along the insubric line West of Locarno (Northern Italy and southern Switzerland)

Permo-Mesozoic Canavese sediments are pinched in between the pre-Alpine high-grade metamorphic Ivrea Zone and the Alpine metamorphosed Sesia Zone along the Insubric Line W of Locarno. According to the ``illite crystallinity'' these sediments were deformed under anchi- and epizonal conditions. Synkinematically formed white mica in the mylonitized Canavese sediments yields the following K-Ar age ranges: 60-76 Ma at the southwestern end, 28-43 Ma in the central part and 19-26 Ma in the northeastern part of the Insubric Line W of Locarno. The youngest age group dates the main uplift and dextral strike-slip movements of the Insubric Line, comprising mylonites in the NE and cataclasites in the SW. This activity correlates with Late Oligocene to Early Miocene rapid cooling and uplift of the Central Alps.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Permian-polysulphide-siderite-barite-haematite deposit Rude in Samoborska Gora Mts., Zagorje-Mid-Transdanubian zone of the Inner Dinarides

Samoborska Gora Mts. is situated within the westernmost part of the Zagorje-Mid-Transdanubian zone of the Internal Dinarides. The Samoborska Gora Mts. predominantly consists of Permian unmetamorphosed siliciclastic sediments and evaporites, overlain by Lower Triassic sediments. Rude mineralisation is hosted by Permian siliciclastic sediments, below gypsum and anhydrite strata. The central part of the deposit consists of a 1.5 km long stratabound mineralisation, grading laterally into ferruginous sandstone and protruding vertically into a gypsum-anhydrite layer. Siderite-polysulphide-barite-quartz veins are located below the stratabound mineralisation. The stratiform part of the deposit is situated above the stratabound and consists of haematite layer with barite concretions and veinlets. Late stage galena-barite veins overprint earlier types of mineralisation. The Rude ore deposit was generated by predominantly NaCl +/- CaCl(2)-H(2)O solutions. Detrital quartz from stratiform mineralisation contains fluid inclusions with salinities between 7 and 11 wt. % NaCl equ., homogenizing between 150 degrees C to 230 degrees C. Stratabound/siderite-polysulphide-barite-quartz vein type mineralisation was derived from solutions with salinities between 5 and 19 wt. % NaCl equ., homogenizing between 60 degrees C and 160 degrees C, while late stage galenabarite veins were precipitated from solutions with salinities between 11 and 16 wt. % NaCl equ., homogenizing between 100 degrees C to 140 degrees C. Fluid inclusion bulk leachate chemistry recorded Na(+)> Mg(2+)>K(+)>Ca(2+)>Li(+) and Cl-> SO(4)(2-) ions. Sulphur isotope composition of barites and overlying gypsum stems from Permian seawater sulphate, supported by increased Br(-) content, which follows successively the seawater evaporation line. The sulphur isotopic composition of sulphides varies between -0.2 and + 12.5 parts per thousand , as a result of thermal reduction of Permian marine sulphate. Ore-forming fluids were produced by hydrothermal convective cells (reflux brine model), and were derived primarily from Permian seawater, modified by evaporation and interaction with Permian sedimentary rocks. Rude deposits in Samoborska Gora Mts. may be declared as a prototype of the Permian siderite-polysulphide-barite deposits (products of rifting along the passive Gondwana margin), in the Inner Dinarides, and their equivalents extending northeastward into the Zagorje-Mid-Transdanubian Zone and the Gemerides, and southeastward to the Hellenide-Albanides.

Long-term effect of a school-based physical activity program (KISS) on fitness and adiposity in children: a cluster-randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: School-based intervention studies promoting a healthy lifestyle have shown favorable immediate health effects. However, there is a striking paucity on long-term follow-ups. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the 3 yr-follow-up of a cluster-randomized controlled school-based physical activity program over nine month with beneficial immediate effects on body fat, aerobic fitness and physical activity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Initially, 28 classes from 15 elementary schools in Switzerland were grouped into an intervention (16 classes from 9 schools, n = 297 children) and a control arm (12 classes from 6 schools, n = 205 children) after stratification for grade (1st and 5th graders). Three years after the end of the multi-component physical activity program of nine months including daily physical education (i.e. two additional lessons per week on top of three regular lessons), short physical activity breaks during academic lessons, and daily physical activity homework, 289 (58%) participated in the follow-up. Primary outcome measures included body fat (sum of four skinfolds), aerobic fitness (shuttle run test), physical activity (accelerometry), and quality of life (questionnaires). After adjustment for grade, gender, baseline value and clustering within classes, children in the intervention arm compared with controls had a significantly higher average level of aerobic fitness at follow-up (0.373 z-score units [95%-CI: 0.157 to 0.59, p = 0.001] corresponding to a shift from the 50th to the 65th percentile between baseline and follow-up), while the immediate beneficial effects on the other primary outcomes were not sustained. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from aerobic fitness, beneficial effects seen after one year were not maintained when the intervention was stopped. A continuous intervention seems necessary to maintain overall beneficial health effects as reached at the end of the intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ControlledTrials.com ISRCTN15360785.