881 resultados para Learning Bayesian Networks


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Using the network random generation models from Gustedt (2009)[23], we simulate and analyze several characteristics (such as the number of components, the degree distribution and the clustering coefficient) of the generated networks. This is done for a variety of distributions (fixed value, Bernoulli, Poisson, binomial) that are used to control the parameters of the generation process. These parameters are in particular the size of newly appearing sets of objects, the number of contexts in which new elements appear initially, the number of objects that are shared with `parent` contexts, and, the time period inside which a context may serve as a parent context (aging). The results show that these models allow to fine-tune the generation process such that the graphs adopt properties as can be found in real world graphs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In many engineering applications, the time coordination of geographically separated events is of fundamental importance, as in digital telecommunications and integrated digital circuits. Mutually connected (MC) networks are very good candidates for some new types of application, such as wireless sensor networks. This paper presents a study on the behavior of MC networks of digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs). Analytical results are derived showing that, even for static networks without delays, different synchronous states may exist for the network. An upper bound for the number of such states is also presented. Numerical simulations are used to show the following results: (i) the synchronization precision in MC DPLLs networks; (ii) the existence of synchronous states for the network does not guarantee its achievement and (iii) different synchronous states may be achieved for different initial conditions. These results are important in the neural computation context. as in this case, each synchronous state may be associated to a different analog memory information. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The double-frequency jitter is one of the main problems in clock distribution networks. In previous works, sonic analytical and numerical aspects of this phenomenon were studied and results were obtained for one-way master-slave (OWMS) architectures. Here, an experimental apparatus is implemented, allowing to measure the power of the double-frequency signal and to confirm the theoretical conjectures. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The competition among the companies depends on the velocity and efficience they can create and commercialize knowledge in a timely and cost-efficient manner. In this context, collaboration emerges as a reaction to the environmental changes. Although strategic alliances and networks have been exploited in the strategic literature for decades, the complexity and continuous usage of these cooperation structures, in a world of growing competition, justify the continuous interest in both themes. This article presents a scanning of the contemporary academic production in strategic alliances and networks, covering the period from January 1997 to august 2007, based on the top five journals accordingly to the journal of Citation Report 2006 in the business and management categories simultaneously. The results point to a retraction in publications about strategic alliances and a significant growth in the area of strategic. networks. The joint view of strategic alliances and networks, cited by some authors a the evolutionary path of study, still did not appear salient. The most cited topics found in the alliance literature are the governance structure, cooperation, knowledge transfer, culture, control, trust, alliance formation,,previous experience, resources, competition and partner selection. The theme network focuses mainly on structure, knowledge transfer and social network, while the joint vision is highly concentrated in: the subjects of alliance formation and the governance choice.

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Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

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This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

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Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

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This article examines the subject matter of learning within the context of information society, through an inquiry concerning both the reforms in education adopted in Brazil in the last thirty years and their results. It provides a revision on the explanations of school failure based on assumptions of learning problems due to cognitive and linguistic deficits. From the guidelines related with written school forms as well as the constant cultural oppression accomplished inside the school, the article claims the necessity of changing the psychological and pedagogic views that, under the label of democratic practices, determine school institutions and its daily life, by means of instrumental relations with knowledge that disregard the reading practices which are congenial to popular culture.

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What do visitors want or expect from an educational leisure activity such as a visit to a museum, zoo, aquarium or other such experience? Is it to learn something or to experience learning? This paper uses the term 'learning for fun' to refer to the phenomenon in which visitors engage in a learning experience because they value and enjoy the process of learning itself. Five propositions regarding the nature of learning for fun are discussed, drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from visitors to a range of educational leisure activities. The commonalities between learning for fun and other theoretical constructs such as 'experience,' 'flow', 'intrinsic motivation', and 'curiosity' are explored. It is concluded that learning for fun is a unique and distinctive offering of educational leisure experiences, with implications for future research and experience design.

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Three main models of parameter setting have been proposed: the Variational model proposed by Yang (2002; 2004), the Structured Acquisition model endorsed by Baker (2001; 2005), and the Very Early Parameter Setting (VEPS) model advanced by Wexler (1998). The VEPS model contends that parameters are set early. The Variational model supposes that children employ statistical learning mechanisms to decide among competing parameter values, so this model anticipates delays in parameter setting when critical input is sparse, and gradual setting of parameters. On the Structured Acquisition model, delays occur because parameters form a hierarchy, with higher-level parameters set before lower-level parameters. Assuming that children freely choose the initial value, children sometimes will miss-set parameters. However when that happens, the input is expected to trigger a precipitous rise in one parameter value and a corresponding decline in the other value. We will point to the kind of child language data that is needed in order to adjudicate among these competing models.

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When English-learning children begin using words the majority of their early utterances (around 80%) are nouns. Compared to nouns, there is a paucity of verbs or non-verb relational words, such as 'up' meaning 'pick me up'. The primary explanations to account for these differences in use either argue in support of a 'cognitive account', which claims that verbs entail more cognitive complexity than nouns, or they provide evidence challenging this account. In this paper I propose an additional explanation for children's noun/verb asymmetry. Presenting a 'multi-modal account' of word-learning based on children's gesture and word combinations, I show that at the one-word stage English-learning children use gestures to express verb-like elements which leaves their words free to express noun-like elements.

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Student attitudes towards a subject affect their learning. For students in physics service courses, relevance is emphasised by vocational applications. A similar strategy is being used for students who aspire to continued study of physics, in an introduction to fundamental skills in experimental physics – the concepts, computational tools and practical skills involved in appropriately obtaining and interpreting measurement data. An educational module is being developed that aims to enhance the student experience by embedding learning of these skills in the practicing physicist’s activity of doing an experiment (gravity estimation using a rolling pendulum). The group concentrates on particular skills prompted by challenges such as: • How can we get an answer to our question? • How good is our answer? • How can it be improved? This explicitly provides students the opportunity to consider and construct their own ideas. It gives them time to discuss, digest and practise without undue stress, thereby assisting them to internalise core skills. Design of the learning activity is approached in an iterative manner, via theoretical and practical considerations, with input from a range of teaching staff, and subject to trials of prototypes.

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In this paper, we propose a fast adaptive importance sampling method for the efficient simulation of buffer overflow probabilities in queueing networks. The method comprises three stages. First, we estimate the minimum cross-entropy tilting parameter for a small buffer level; next, we use this as a starting value for the estimation of the optimal tilting parameter for the actual (large) buffer level. Finally, the tilting parameter just found is used to estimate the overflow probability of interest. We study various properties of the method in more detail for the M/M/1 queue and conjecture that similar properties also hold for quite general queueing networks. Numerical results support this conjecture and demonstrate the high efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

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Demotivation in English language learning was investigated, using Vietnam as a case study, with three main foci: (i) the reasons (i.e., the demotives) underlying demotivation; (ii) the degree of influence of different demotives; and (iii) students’ experiences in overcoming demotivation. Using stimulated recall essays from 100 university students of their foreign language learning experiences, the findings indicated that demotivation was a significant issue for EFL learning, and a framework for discussing the different sources of demotives was developed. While some categories of demotives occurred more frequent than others, no category appeared to be more or less difficult to overcome. Rather, students’ awareness of the role of English language and their determination to succeed were critical factors in overcoming demotivation.