Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

Hydrodynamical simulations of Galactic fountains - I. Evolution of single fountains

The ejection of the gas out of the disc in late-type galaxies is related to star formation and is due mainly to Type II supernovae. In this paper, we studied in detail the development of the Galactic fountains in order to understand their dynamical evolution and their influence on the redistribution of the freshly delivered metals over the disc. To this aim, we performed a number of 3D hydrodynamical radiative cooling simulations of the gas in the Milky Way where the whole Galaxy structure, the Galactic differential rotation and the supernova explosions generated by a single OB association are considered. A typical fountain powered by 100 Type II supernovae may eject material up to similar to 2 kpc which than collapses back mostly in the form of dense, cold clouds and filaments. The majority of the gas lifted up by the fountains falls back on the disc remaining within a radial distance Delta R = 0.5 kpc from the place where the fountain originated. This localized circulation of disc gas does not influence the radial chemical gradients on large scale, as required by the chemical models of the Milky Way which reproduce the metallicity distribution without invoking large fluxes of metals. Simulations of multiple fountains fuelled by Type II supernovae of different OB associations will be presented in a companion paper.

DENSITY PROFILE, VELOCITY ANISOTROPY, AND LINE-OF-SIGHT EXTERNAL CONVERGENCE OF SLACS GRAVITATIONAL LENSES

Data from 58 strong-lensing events surveyed by the Sloan Lens ACS Survey are used to estimate the projected galaxy mass inside their Einstein radii by two independent methods: stellar dynamics and strong gravitational lensing. We perform a joint analysis of these two estimates inside models with up to three degrees of freedom with respect to the lens density profile, stellar velocity anisotropy, and line-of-sight (LOS) external convergence, which incorporates the effect of the large-scale structure on strong lensing. A Bayesian analysis is employed to estimate the model parameters, evaluate their significance, and compare models. We find that the data favor Jaffe`s light profile over Hernquist`s, but that any particular choice between these two does not change the qualitative conclusions with respect to the features of the system that we investigate. The density profile is compatible with an isothermal, being sightly steeper and having an uncertainty in the logarithmic slope of the order of 5% in models that take into account a prior ignorance on anisotropy and external convergence. We identify a considerable degeneracy between the density profile slope and the anisotropy parameter, which largely increases the uncertainties in the estimates of these parameters, but we encounter no evidence in favor of an anisotropic velocity distribution on average for the whole sample. An LOS external convergence following a prior probability distribution given by cosmology has a small effect on the estimation of the lens density profile, but can increase the dispersion of its value by nearly 40%.

Cosmic shear requirements on the wavelength dependence of telescope point spread functions

Cosmic shear requires high precision measurement of galaxy shapes in the presence of the observational point spread function (PSF) that smears out the image. The PSF must therefore be known for each galaxy to a high accuracy. However, for several reasons, the PSF is usually wavelength dependent; therefore, the differences between the spectral energy distribution of the observed objects introduce further complexity. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the wavelength dependence of the PSF, focusing on instruments in which the PSF size is dominated by the diffraction limit of the telescope and which use broad-band filters for shape measurement. We first calculate biases on cosmological parameter estimation from cosmic shear when the stellar PSF is used uncorrected. Using realistic galaxy and star spectral energy distributions and populations and a simple three-component circular PSF, we find that the colour dependence must be taken into account for the next generation of telescopes. We then consider two different methods for removing the effect: (i) the use of stars of the same colour as the galaxies and (ii) estimation of the galaxy spectral energy distribution using multiple colours and using a telescope model for the PSF. We find that both of these methods correct the effect to levels below the tolerances required for per cent level measurements of dark energy parameters. Comparison of the two methods favours the template-fitting method because its efficiency is less dependent on galaxy redshift than the broad-band colour method and takes full advantage of deeper photometry.

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests, Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south-eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent. After superimposing the present-day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre- and post-deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre- and post-deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large-scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra-specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present-day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra-specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.

A novel approach for distributed application scheduling based on prediction of communication events

The evolution of commodity computing lead to the possibility of efficient usage of interconnected machines to solve computationally-intensive tasks, which were previously solvable only by using expensive supercomputers. This, however, required new methods for process scheduling and distribution, considering the network latency, communication cost, heterogeneous environments and distributed computing constraints. An efficient distribution of processes over such environments requires an adequate scheduling strategy, as the cost of inefficient process allocation is unacceptably high. Therefore, a knowledge and prediction of application behavior is essential to perform effective scheduling. In this paper, we overview the evolution of scheduling approaches, focusing on distributed environments. We also evaluate the current approaches for process behavior extraction and prediction, aiming at selecting an adequate technique for online prediction of application execution. Based on this evaluation, we propose a novel model for application behavior prediction, considering chaotic properties of such behavior and the automatic detection of critical execution points. The proposed model is applied and evaluated for process scheduling in cluster and grid computing environments. The obtained results demonstrate that prediction of the process behavior is essential for efficient scheduling in large-scale and heterogeneous distributed environments, outperforming conventional scheduling policies by a factor of 10, and even more in some cases. Furthermore, the proposed approach proves to be efficient for online predictions due to its low computational cost and good precision. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic reference levels for the most frequent radiological examinations carried out in Brazil

Objectives. A large-scale survey of doses to patients undergoing the most frequent radiological examinations was carried out in health services in Sao Paulo (347 radiological examinations per 1 000 inhabitants), the most populous Brazilian state. Methods. A postal dosimetric kit with thermoluminescence dosimeters was used to evaluate the entrance surface dose (ESD) to patients. A stratified sampling technique applied to the national health database furnished important data on the distribution of equipment and the annual number of examinations. Chest, head (skull and sinus), and spine (cervical, thoracic, and lumbar) examinations were included in the trial. A total of 83 rooms and 868 patients were included, and 1 415 values of ESD were measured. Results. The data show large coefficients of variation in tube charge, giving rise to large variations in ESD values. Also, a series of high ESD values associated with unnecessary localizing fluoroscopy were detected. Diagnostic reference levels were determined, based on the 75th percentile (third quartile) of the ESD distributions. For adult patients, the diagnostic reference levels achieved are very similar to those obtained in international surveys. However, the situation is different for pediatric patients: the ESD values found in this survey are twice as large as the international recommendations for chest radiographs of children. Conclusions. Despite the reduced number of ESD values and rooms for the pediatric patient group, it is recommended that practices in chest examinations be revised and that specific national reference doses and image quality be established after a broader survey is carried out.

Evaluation of a high temperature solar thermal seasonal borehole storage

A solar thermal system with seasonal borehole storage for heating of a residential area in Anneberg, Sweden, approximately 10 km north of Stockholm, has been in operation since late 2002. Originally, the project was part of the EU THERMIE project “Large-scale Solar Heating Systems for Housing Developments” (REB/0061/97) and was the first solar heating plant in Europe with borehole storage in rock not utilizing a heat pump. Earlier evaluations of the system show lower performance than the preliminary simulation study, with residents complaining of a high use of electricity for domestic hot water (DHW) preparation and auxiliary heating. One explanation mentioned in the earlier evaluations is that the borehole storage had not yet reached “steady state” temperatures at the time of evaluation. Many years have passed since then and this paper presents results from a new evaluation. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the current performance of the system based on several key figures, as well as on system function based on available measurement data. The analysis show that though the borehole storage now has reached a quasi-steady state and operates as intended, the auxiliary electricity consumption is much higher than the original design values largely due to high losses in the distribution network, higher heat loads as well as lower solar gains.

Skilsmässor och separationer : Betydelsen av rollspecialisering och jämställdhet

Divorces and separations: the impact of role specialisation and equality At the same time as women made their large scale entrance on the labour market divorce rates increased in most western societies. This combination of societal trends was widely understood from the perspective of the specialization and trading model, which implies undermined marital stability through decreasing interdependency between husband and wife. We argue the need to acknowledge the new roles, and perceptions of these roles, men and women have in order to explain differences in separation and stability among couples. When both partners are expecting to be in paid labour and share housework responsibilities, specialisation could actually be a risk factor for cohabitational dissolution. This article uses a ten year longitudinal database of all Swedish cohabiting first time parents in 1993. The analyses generally support what could be labelled a role balance model on separation rather than the specialization model. Looking at the father’s participation in childcare this was quite clear, where the man’s outtake of parental leave for the first child was shown to be related to reduced hazards of separation. In the same way equal distribution of the household labour market incomes between the partners was related to lower hazards of separation.

A Spatial-Temporal Downscaling Approach To Construction Of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relations In The Context Of Climate Change

This paper proposes a spatial-temporal downscaling approach to construction of the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations at a local site in the context of climate change and variability. More specifically, the proposed approach is based on a combination of a spatial downscaling method to link large-scale climate variables given by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with daily extreme precipitations at a site and a temporal downscaling procedure to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitations based on the scaling General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The feasibility and accuracy of the suggested method were assessed using rainfall data available at eight stations in Quebec (Canada) for the 1961-2000 period and climate simulations under four different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian (CGCM3) and UK (HadCM3) GCM models. Results of this application have indicated that it is feasible to link sub-daily extreme rainfalls at a local site with large-scale GCM-based daily climate predictors for the construction of the IDF relations for present (1961-1990) and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) periods at a given site under different climate change scenarios. In addition, it was found that annual maximum rainfalls downscaled from the HadCM3 displayed a smaller change in the future, while those values estimated from the CGCM3 indicated a large increasing trend for future periods. This result has demonstrated the presence of high uncertainty in climate simulations provided by different GCMs. In summary, the proposed spatial-temporal downscaling method provided an essential tool for the estimation of extreme rainfalls that are required for various climate-related impact assessment studies for a given region.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

H-N2N : uma arquitetura hierárquica escalável para ambientes de realidade mista de grande porte

In this work, we propose a solution to solve the scalability problem found in collaborative, virtual and mixed reality environments of large scale, that use the hierarchical client-server model. Basically, we use a hierarchy of servers. When the capacity of a server is reached, a new server is created as a sun of the first one, and the system load is distributed between them (father and sun). We propose efficient tools and techniques for solving problems inherent to client-server model, as the definition of clusters of users, distribution and redistribution of users through the servers, and some mixing and filtering operations, that are necessary to reduce flow between servers. The new model was tested, in simulation, emulation and in interactive applications that were implemented. The results of these experimentations show enhancements in the traditional, previous models indicating the usability of the proposed in problems of all-to-all communications. This is the case of interactive games and other applications devoted to Internet (including multi-user environments) and interactive applications of the Brazilian Digital Television System, to be developed by the research group. Keywords: large scale virtual environments, interactive digital tv, distributed

Tratamento de água de produção de petróleo visando o aproveitamento na obtenção de barrilha

The petroleum production is associated to the produced water, which has dispersed and dissolved materials that damage not only the environment, but also the petroleum processing units. This study aims at the treatment of produced water focusing mainly on the removal of metals and oil and using this treated water as raw material for the production of sodium carbonate. Initially, it was addressed the removal of the following divalent metals: calcium, magnesium, barium, zinc, copper, iron, and cadmium. For this purpose, surfactants derived from vegetable oils, such as coconut oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, were used. The investigation showed that there is a stoichiometric relationship between the metals removed from the produced water and the surfactants used in the process of metals removal. It was also developed a model that correlates the hydrolysis constant of saponified coconut oil with the metal distribution between the resulting stages of the proposed process, flocs and aqueous phases, and relating the results with the pH of the medium. The correlation coefficient obtained was 0.963. Next, the process of producing washing soda (prefiro soda ahs ou sodium carbonate) started. The resulting water from the various treatment approaches from petroleum production water was used. During this stage of the research, it was observed that the surfactant assisted in the produced water treatment, by removing some metals and the dispersed oil entirety. The yield of sodium carbonate production was approximately 80%, and its purity was around 95%. It was also assessed, in the production of sodium carbonate, the influence of the type of reactor, using a continuous reactor and a batch reactor. These tests showed that the process with continuous reactor was not as efficient as the batch process. In general, it can be concluded that the production of sodium carbonate from water of oil production is a feasible process, rendering an effluent that causes a great environmental impact a raw material with large scale industrial use

Transmission system expansion planning by an extended genetic algorithm

The paper presents an extended genetic algorithm for solving the optimal transmission network expansion planning problem. Two main improvements have been introduced in the genetic algorithm: (a) initial population obtained by conventional optimisation based methods; (b) mutation approach inspired in the simulated annealing technique, the proposed method is general in the sense that it does not assume any particular property of the problem being solved, such as linearity or convexity. Excellent performance is reported in the test results section of the paper for a difficult large-scale real-life problem: a substantial reduction in investment costs has been obtained with regard to previous solutions obtained via conventional optimisation methods and simulated annealing algorithms; statistical comparison procedures have been employed in benchmarking different versions of the genetic algorithm and simulated annealing methods.

Morfologia e sedimentologia da plataforma continental brasileira adjacente a São Bento do Norte e Caiçara do Norte-RN/NE-Brasil

This dissertation the results of a research developed in the area of São Bento do Norte and Caiçara do Norte, northern coast of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, during the period of June of 2000 to August of 2001, in the ambit of the projects MAMBMARÉ (CNPq/CTPETRO) and PROBRAL (CAPES/DAAD). The objective principal of this research was the characterization of the sedimentary dynamics of this coast, with base in data of coastal process (winds, currents, waves and tides), with topographical risings (beach profiles and dunes), satellite images and sedimentary analyses. The more specific objectives were accomplished the coastal monitoring of this coast, to verify the maintenance of an erosive tendency or progradacional after the groynes construction for contention of the erosion in the beach of Caiçara do Norte, as well as to verify the influence of the features of bottom of the platform interns adjacent on the pole petroliferous of Guamaré. The executed monitoramento allowed to identify that the movement of the sediments, along the year, in that area, is cyclical, reaching the largest oscillations during the months of winter (deposition) and they will summer (erosion). The sedimentologic studies indicated a general tendency for sands quartzosas, with gravel presence, moderately to good selected, with asymmetry predominantly negative. In agreement with the parameter of Dean (1957), used in the identification of the state morfodinâmico of the beaches, monitored beaches, are basically reflectivas with tendency to middlemen, what frames that space of the coast norte-riograndense, as a space strongly vulnerable to erosive processes. The studies developed in the platform, it interns of this area, allowed to visualize for the first time, in large scale, the distribution of the features of the submarine bottom to the batométrico coat of 25 meters. Being pointed out the presence of a high one topographical submerged, with about 5 meters of height, 1 km of width and more than 24 meters of extension, located in the platform it interns in front of São Bento do Norte; coincident with the trend of the system of flaws of Carnaubais. This feature relay an important paper on the control of the sedimentary processes and oceanographic, as well as in the coastal evolution of this area of the RN state, and they affect the area of the pole petroliferous of Guamaré directly. These results contribute to a better knowledge of the processes in the area, and consequently as subsidies implantation of measures of coastal and environmental protection for the cities of São Bento do Norte and Caiçara do Norte, as well as to understand how the geological-sedimentary processes and oceanographic, in this area, are influencing the characteristics geoambientais of the pole petroliferous of Guamaré