Adapting our cities for future climates: 17 February 2010

Over 50% of humans live in urban areas, occupying less than 3% of land area. Heat, flooding, drought and wind in urban areas were discussed in this meeting at Imperial College organised by Dr Janet Barlow (jointly held between the Royal Meteorological Society and the Wind Engineering Society).

The consumption of milk and dairy foods and the incidence of vascular disease and diabetes: An overview of the evidence

The health effects of milk and dairy food consumption would best be determined in randomised controlled trials. No adequately powered trial has been reported and none is likely because of the numbers required. The best evidence comes, therefore, from prospective cohort studies with disease events and death as outcomes. Medline was searched for prospective studies of dairy food consumption and incident vascular disease and Type 2 diabetes, based on representative population samples. Reports in which evaluation was in incident disease or death were selected. Meta-analyses of the adjusted estimates of relative risk for disease outcomes in these reports were conducted. Relevant case–control retrospective studies were also identified and the results are summarised in this article. Meta-analyses suggest a reduction in risk in the subjects with the highest dairy consumption relative to those with the lowest intake: 0.87 (0.77, 0.98) for all-cause deaths, 0.92 (0.80, 0.99) for ischaemic heart disease, 0.79 (0.68, 0.91) for stroke and 0.85 (0.75, 0.96) for incident diabetes. The number of cohort studies which give evidence on individual dairy food items is very small, but, again, there is no convincing evidence of harm from consumption of the separate food items. In conclusion, there appears to be an enormous mis-match between the evidence from long-term prospective studies and perceptions of harm from the consumption of dairy food items.

Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change

An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed.

Characterising the variability and extremes of the stratospheric polar vortices using 2D moment analysis

The mean state, variability and extreme variability of the stratospheric polar vortices, with an emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere vortex, are examined using 2-dimensional moment analysis and Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The use of moments as an analysis to ol gives rise to information about the vortex area, centroid latitude, aspect ratio and kurtosis. The application of EVT to these moment derived quantaties allows the extreme variability of the vortex to be assessed. The data used for this study is ECMWF ERA-40 potential vorticity fields on interpolated isentropic surfaces that range from 450K-1450K. Analyses show that the most extreme vortex variability occurs most commonly in late January and early February, consistent with when most planetary wave driving from the troposphere is observed. Composites around sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events reveal that the moment diagnostics evolve in statistically different ways between vortex splitting events and vortex displacement events, in contrast to the traditional diagnostics. Histograms of the vortex diagnostics on the 850K (∼10hPa) surface over the 1958-2001 period are fitted with parametric distributions, and show that SSW events comprise the majority of data in the tails of the distributions. The distribution of each diagnostic is computed on various surfaces throughout the depth of the stratosphere, and shows that in general the vortex becomes more circular with higher filamentation at the upper levels. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) vortices are also compared through the analysis of their respective vortex diagnostics, and confirm that the SH vortex is less variable and lacks extreme events compared to the NH vortex. Finally extreme value theory is used to statistically mo del the vortex diagnostics and make inferences about the underlying dynamics of the polar vortices.

Tracer concentration profiles measured in central London as part of the REPARTEE campaign

There have been relatively few tracer experiments carried out that have looked at vertical plume spread in urban areas. In this paper we present results from two tracer (cyclic perfluorocarbon) experiments carried out in 2006 and 2007 in central London centred on the BT Tower as part of the REPARTEE (Regent’s Park and Tower Environmental Experiment) campaign. The height of the tower gives a unique opportunity to study vertical dispersion profiles and transport times in central London. Vertical gradients are contrasted with the relevant Pasquill stability classes. Estimation of lateral advection and vertical mixing times are made and compared with previous measurements. Data are then compared with a simple operational dispersion model and contrasted with data taken in central London as part of the DAPPLE campaign. This correlates dosage with non-dimensionalised distance from source. Such analyses illustrate the feasibility of the use of these empirical correlations over these prescribed distances in central London.

Implications for DNA identification arising from an analysis of Australian forensic databases

Previous analyses of Australian samples have suggested that populations of the same broad racial group (Caucasian, Asian, Aboriginal) tend to be genetically similar across states. This suggests that a single national Australian database for each such group may be feasible, which would greatly facilitate casework. We have investigated samples drawn from each of these groups in different Australian states, and have quantified the genetic homogeneity across states within each racial group in terms of the "coancestry coefficient" F(ST). In accord with earlier results, we find that F(ST) values, as estimated from these data, are very small for Caucasians and Asians, usually <0.5%. We find that "declared" Aborigines (which includes many with partly Aboriginal genetic heritage) are also genetically similar across states, although they display some differentiation from a "pure" Aboriginal population (almost entirely of Aboriginal genetic heritage).

Boundary layer dynamics over London, UK, as observed using Doppler lidar during REPARTEE-II

Urban boundary layers (UBLs) can be highly complex due to the heterogeneous roughness and heating of the surface, particularly at night. Due to a general lack of observations, it is not clear whether canonical models of boundary layer mixing are appropriate in modelling air quality in urban areas. This paper reports Doppler lidar observations of turbulence profiles in the centre of London, UK, as part of the second REPARTEE campaign in autumn 2007. Lidar-measured standard deviation of vertical velocity averaged over 30 min intervals generally compared well with in situ sonic anemometer measurements at 190 m on the BT telecommunications Tower. During calm, nocturnal periods, the lidar underestimated turbulent mixing due mainly to limited sampling rate. Mixing height derived from the turbulence, and aerosol layer height from the backscatter profiles, showed similar diurnal cycles ranging from c. 300 to 800 m, increasing to c. 200 to 850 m under clear skies. The aerosol layer height was sometimes significantly different to the mixing height, particularly at night under clear skies. For convective and neutral cases, the scaled turbulence profiles resembled canonical results; this was less clear for the stable case. Lidar observations clearly showed enhanced mixing beneath stratocumulus clouds reaching down on occasion to approximately half daytime boundary layer depth. On one occasion the nocturnal turbulent structure was consistent with a nocturnal jet, suggesting a stable layer. Given the general agreement between observations and canonical turbulence profiles, mixing timescales were calculated for passive scalars released at street level to reach the BT Tower using existing models of turbulent mixing. It was estimated to take c. 10 min to diffuse up to 190 m, rising to between 20 and 50 min at night, depending on stability. Determination of mixing timescales is important when comparing to physico-chemical processes acting on pollutant species measured simultaneously at both the ground and at the BT Tower during the campaign. From the 3 week autumnal data-set there is evidence for occasional stable layers in central London, effectively decoupling surface emissions from air aloft.

Dynamic stall for a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine in a two-dimensional study

The last few years have proved that Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs) are more suitable for urban areas than Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWTs). To date, very little has been published in this area to assess good performance and lifetime of VAWTs either in open or urban areas. At low tip speed ratios (TSRs<5), VAWTs are subjected to a phenomenon called 'dynamic stall'. This can really affect the fatigue life of a VAWT if it is not well understood. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how CFD is able to simulate the dynamic stall for 2-D flow around VAWT blades. During the numerical simulations different turbulence models were used and compared with the data available on the subject. In this numerical analysis the Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model seems to predict the dynamic stall better than the other turbulence models available. The limitations of the study are that the simulations are based on a 2-D case with constant wind and rotational speeds instead of considering a 3-D case with variable wind speeds. This approach was necessary for having a numerical analysis at low computational cost and time. Consequently, in the future it is strongly suggested to develop a more sophisticated model that is a more realistic simulation of a dynamic stall in a three-dimensional VAWT.

A wind-tunnel study of flow distortion at a meteorological sensor on top of the BT Tower, London, UK

High quality wind measurements in cities are needed for numerous applications including wind engineering. Such data-sets are rare and measurement platforms may not be optimal for meteorological observations. Two years' wind data were collected on the BT Tower, London, UK, showing an upward deflection on average for all wind directions. Wind tunnel simulations were performed to investigate flow distortion around two scale models of the Tower. Using a 1:160 scale model it was shown that the Tower causes a small deflection (ca. 0.5°) compared to the lattice on top on which the instruments were placed (ca. 0–4°). These deflections may have been underestimated due to wind tunnel blockage. Using a 1:40 model, the observed flow pattern was consistent with streamwise vortex pairs shed from the upstream lattice edge. Correction factors were derived for different wind directions and reduced deflection in the full-scale data-set by <3°. Instrumental tilt caused a sinusoidal variation in deflection of ca. 2°. The residual deflection (ca. 3°) was attributed to the Tower itself. Correction of the wind-speeds was small (average 1%) therefore it was deduced that flow distortion does not significantly affect the measured wind-speeds and the wind climate statistics are reliable.

Particle image velocimetry measurements of turbulent flow within outdoor and indoor urban scale models and flushing motions in urban canopy layers

We investigate the spatial characteristics of urban-like canopy flow by applying particle image velocimetry (PIV) to atmospheric turbulence. The study site was a Comprehensive Outdoor Scale MOdel (COSMO) experiment for urban climate in Japan. The PIV system captured the two-dimensional flow field within the canopy layer continuously for an hour with a sampling frequency of 30 Hz, thereby providing reliable outdoor turbulence statistics. PIV measurements in a wind-tunnel facility using similar roughness geometry, but with a lower sampling frequency of 4 Hz, were also done for comparison. The turbulent momentum flux from COSMO, and the wind tunnel showed similar values and distributions when scaled using friction velocity. Some different characteristics between outdoor and indoor flow fields were mainly caused by the larger fluctuations in wind direction for the atmospheric turbulence. The focus of the analysis is on a variety of instantaneous turbulent flow structures. One remarkable flow structure is termed 'flushing', that is, a large-scale upward motion prevailing across the whole vertical cross-section of a building gap. This is observed intermittently, whereby tracer particles are flushed vertically out from the canopy layer. Flushing phenomena are also observed in the wind tunnel where there is neither thermal stratification nor outer-layer turbulence. It is suggested that flushing phenomena are correlated with the passing of large-scale low-momentum regions above the canopy.