Likelihood-free estimation of model evidence

Statistical methods of inference typically require the likelihood function to be computable in a reasonable amount of time. The class of “likelihood-free” methods termed Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is able to eliminate this requirement, replacing the evaluation of the likelihood with simulation from it. Likelihood-free methods have gained in efficiency and popularity in the past few years, following their integration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) in order to better explore the parameter space. They have been applied primarily to estimating the parameters of a given model, but can also be used to compare models. Here we present novel likelihood-free approaches to model comparison, based upon the independent estimation of the evidence of each model under study. Key advantages of these approaches over previous techniques are that they allow the exploitation of MCMC or SMC algorithms for exploring the parameter space, and that they do not require a sampler able to mix between models. We validate the proposed methods using a simple exponential family problem before providing a realistic problem from human population genetics: the comparison of different demographic models based upon genetic data from the Y chromosome.

Measurement of the salinity and freezing tolerance of Crataegus genotypes using chlorophyll fluorescence

The effect of increasing salinity and freezing stress singly and in combination on a range of chlorophyll fluorescence parameters in foliar tissue of six Crataegus genotypes was examined. In general, increased stress reduced fluorescence values and absorption, trapping and electron transport energy fluxes per leaf reaction center and cross section, with decreased sigmoidicity of OJIP curves as a measure of the plastoquinone pool, reflecting decreased energy fluxes. Based on percentage reduction in a performance index from controls compared to stress-treated values, plants were ranked in order of tolerant > intermediate > sensitive. Use of this PIp ranking criteria enabled the distinguishing of marked differences in foliar salt/freezing hardiness between the Crataegus species used. Interpretation of the photochemical data showed that salinity and freezing affects both the acceptor and donor side of Photosystem II, while OJIP observations provided information regarding structural and functional changes in the leaf photosynthetic apparatus of the test species. It is concluded that chlorophyll fluorescence offers a rapid screening technique for assessing foliar salinity and freezing tolerance of woody perennials

Foliar salt tolerance of Acer genotypes using chlorophyll fluorescence

The effect of increasing salinity on a range of chlorophyll fluorescence parameters in foliar tissue of 30 Acer genotypes was examined. The magnitude of the fluorescence responses differed among genotypes ranging from minor effects to substantial leaf tissue damage. Interpretation of the fluorescence expressions provided an insight into mechanisms of salt damage and resilience among genotypes. Based on reductions in a performance index (PIp) following salinity, genotypes were ranked in order from tolerant to sensitive. Based on this ranking criterion, marked differences in salt tolerance among genotypes were distinguished. It is concluded that chlorophyll fluorescence offers a rapid screening technique for assessing the foliar salinity tolerance of urban trees.

Success and failure of grassroots innovations for addressing climate change: the case of the Transition Movement

Grassroots innovations emerge as networks generating innovative solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, it is unclear if grassroots innovations can be successful in responding to climate change. Little evidence exists on replication, international comparisons are rare, and research tends to overlook discontinued responses in favour of successful ones. We take the Transition Movement as a case study of a rapidly spreading transnational grassroots network, and include both active and non-active local transition initiatives. We investigate the replication of grassroots innovations in different contexts with the aim to uncover general patterns of success and failure, and identify questions for future research. An online survey was carried out in 23 countries (N=276). The data analysis entailed testing the effect of internal and contextual factors of success as drawn from the existing literature, and the identification of clusters of transition initiatives with similar internal and contextual factor configurations. Most transition initiatives consider themselves successful. Success is defined along the lines of social connectivity and empowerment, and external environmental impact. We find that less successful transition initiatives might underestimate the importance of contextual factors and material resources in influencing success. We also find that their diffusion is linked to the combination of local-global learning processes, and that there is an incubation period during which a transition initiative is consolidated. Transition initiatives seem capable of generalising organisational principles derived from unique local experiences that seem to be effective in other local contexts. However, the geographical locations matter with regard to where transition initiatives take root and the extent of their success, and ‘place attachment’ may have a role in the diffusion of successful initatives. We suggest that longitudinal comparative studies can advance our understanding in this regard, as well as inform the changing nature of the definition of success at different stages of grassroots innovation development, and the dynamic nature of local and global linkages.

The influence of distractors on saccade­ target selection: saccade trajectory effects

It has long been known that the path (trajectory) taken by the eye to land on a target is rarely straight (Yarbus, 1967). Furthermore, the magnitude and direction of this natural tendency for curvature can be modulated by the presence of a competing distractor stimu­ lus presented along with the saccade target. The distractor­related modulation of saccade trajectories provides a subtle measure of the underlying competitive processes involved in saccade target selection. Here we review some of our own studies into the effects distract­ ors have on saccade trajectories, which can be regarded as a way of probing the competit­ ive balance between target and distractor salience.

Qualified immigrants' success: exploring the motivation to migrate and to integrate

High-quality employees with international experience bring valuable advantages to internationally operating organizations. The growing number and importance of immigrants, and particularly qualified, university-educated immigrants, deserves more attention from international business practitioners and scholars. The market for highly qualified people within MNCs is increasingly becoming international, and ever more of them have migrated to a new country to advance their career. Such employees can be a source of competitive advantage for international firms. We use qualitative research with qualified immigrants (QIs) in France to argue that the success of QIs depends in large part on their motivation to integrate into their host country, which is largely explained by their motivation to migrate. From the qualitative data we derive four different types of qualified migrant, and suggest that the type will determine the success of the immigrant within, and outside, the organization. The relationship between the motivation to migrate and the motivation to integrate is moderated by “met expectations” and “organizational integration policies”, such that the effects of these, in turn, vary with type. Recognition of the types of QI and the moderating factors will be valuable for practitioners, as well as opening up research avenues for scholars.

CSR: the co-evolution of grocery multiples in the UK (2005-2010)

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate if CSR is balanced between firm and wider society interests. Design/methodology/approach – A qualitative interpretive hermeneutic approach is used to analyse a variety of publically published secondary sources on the CSR of Tesco, Sainsburys, Morrisons and Co-operative in the UK grocery multiple sector (2005-2010). Findings – CSR strategic outcomes currently favour the firm more than society interests. A multilayered framework in the form of Social Responsibility of the Corporation (SRC) is designed and offered in support of balancing the business-society relationship more evenly. Research limitations/implications – This study is limited to firms originating from within the UK grocery multiple sector. Asda could not be included in the study as it does not publish CSR reports annually in the UK after becoming part of Walmart group. Practical implications – A framework for multi-level standardised definition of CSR in the form of SRC is offered. The inclusion of employees and members of the public on CSR/SRC boards is recommended to foster wider collaboration. The SRC framework promotes standardisation at global level while respecting diversity and firm heterogeneity at firm level. The findings may further contribute to GRI; UN Global Compact; WEF dialogues. Social implications – Recommendations are made to extend CSR board diversity for improved dialogue with communities. The SRC framework may be applied at global; national; industry and firm level. The framework can be applied internationally or locally. Future studies may offer quantitative attributes for balancing CSR/SRC. Originality/value – A globally unique and universally applicable framework for evaluating CSR activities is proposed. Future studies may extend the authors' framework to other industries, national environments or globally in the pursuit of balance between firm and society. Furthermore, firms may also adopt the framework to support CSR activities.

Anti-Slavic imagery in German radical nationalist discourse at the turn of the twentieth century: a prelude to Nazi ideology?

By applying methods of cognitive metaphor theory, Jaworska examines metaphorical scenarios employed in the discourse of anti-Slavism, which featured prominently in radical nationalist propaganda in Germany at the turn of the twentieth century. She does so by analysing metaphorical expressions used to refer to the Polish population living in the eastern provinces of Prussia, in the so-called Ostmark. Her article is based on an analysis of a range of pamphlets and newspaper articles written by some of the leading figures of two nationalist organizations: the Pan-German League (Alldeutscher Verband) and the Eastern Marches Society(Ostmarkenverein). The main research questions it addresses are: What kind of metaphoric scenarios were used to depict the Polish minority, and to what extent were the metaphorical patterns of anti-Slavic imagery similar to those employed in the antisemitic propaganda of the Nazi era? Is there a discursive continuity between the radical nationalism of imperial Germany and the National Socialism of the Third Reich at the level of metaphorical scenarios? Ultimately, Jaworska attempts to contribute to a better understanding of the cognitive mechanisms underlying radical and essentially racist attitudes.

Cognitive and environmental factors influencing the process of spatial knowledge acquisition within virtual reality environments

As the fidelity of virtual environments (VE) continues to increase, the possibility of using them as training platforms is becoming increasingly realistic for a variety of application domains, including military and emergency personnel training. In the past, there was much debate on whether the acquisition and subsequent transfer of spatial knowledge from VEs to the real world is possible, or whether the differences in medium during training would essentially be an obstacle to truly learning geometric space. In this paper, the authors present various cognitive and environmental factors that not only contribute to this process, but also interact with each other to a certain degree, leading to a variable exposure time requirement in order for the process of spatial knowledge acquisition (SKA) to occur. The cognitive factors that the authors discuss include a variety of individual user differences such as: knowledge and experience; cognitive gender differences; aptitude and spatial orientation skill; and finally, cognitive styles. Environmental factors discussed include: Size, Spatial layout complexity and landmark distribution. It may seem obvious that since every individual's brain is unique - not only through experience, but also through genetic predisposition that a one size fits all approach to training would be illogical. Furthermore, considering that various cognitive differences may further emerge when a certain stimulus is present (e.g. complex environmental space), it would make even more sense to understand how these factors can impact spatial memory, and to try to adapt the training session by providing visual/auditory cues as well as by changing the exposure time requirements for each individual. The impact of this research domain is important to VE training in general, however within service and military domains, guaranteeing appropriate spatial training is critical in order to ensure that disorientation does not occur in a life or death scenario.