Trends in Austral jet position in ensembles of high- and low-top CMIP5 models

Trends in the position of the DJF Austral jet have been analysed for multi-model ensemble simulations of a subset of high- and low-top models for the periods 1960-2000, 2000-2050, and 2050-2098 under the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Comparison with ERA-Interim, CFSR and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows that the DJF and annual mean jet positions in CMIP5 models are equatorward of reanalyses for the 1979-2006 mean. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the mean jet position in the high-top models moves 3 degrees poleward of its 1860-1900 position by 2098, compared to just over 2 degrees for the low-top models. Changes in jet position are linked to changes in the meridional temperature gradient. Compared to low-top models, the high-top models predict greater warming in the tropical upper troposphere due to increased greenhouse gases for all periods considered: up to 0.28 K/decade more in the period 2050-2098 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Larger polar lower-stratospheric cooling is seen in high-top models: -1.64 K/decade compared to -1.40 K/decade in the period 1960-2000, mainly in response to ozone depletion, and -0.41 K/decade compared to -0.12 K/decade in the period 2050-2098, mainly in response to increases in greenhouse gases. Analysis suggests that there may be a linear relationship between the trend in jet position and meridional temperature gradient, even under strong forcing. There were no clear indications of an approach to a geometric limit on the absolute magnitude of the poleward shift by 2100.

European plant phenology and climate as seen in a 20-year AVHRR land-surface parameter dataset

Vegetation distribution and state have been measured since 1981 by the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) instrument through satellite remote sensing. In this study a correction method is applied to the Pathfinder NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to create a continuous European vegetation phenology dataset of a 10-day temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution; additionally, land surface parameters for use in biosphere–atmosphere modelling are derived. The analysis of time-series from this dataset reveals, for the years 1982–2001, strong seasonal and interannual variability in European land surface vegetation state. Phenological metrics indicate a late and short growing season for the years 1985–1987, in addition to early and prolonged activity in the years 1989, 1990, 1994 and 1995. These variations are in close agreement with findings from phenological measurements at the surface; spring phenology is also shown to correlate particularly well with anomalies in winter temperature and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Nevertheless, phenological metrics, which display considerable regional differences, could only be determined for vegetation with a seasonal behaviour. Trends in the phenological phases reveal a general shift to earlier (−0.54 days year−1) and prolonged (0.96 days year−1) growing periods which are statistically significant, especially for central Europe.

Tillage and herbicide treatments with inter-row cultivation influence weed densities and yield of three industrial crops

Field experiments were conducted in northern Greece in 2003 and 2004 to evaluate effects of tillage regimes (moldboard plowing, chisel plowing, and rotary tilling), cropping sequences(continuous cotton, cotton-sugar beet rotation,and continuous tobacco) and herbicide treatments with inter-row hand hoeing on weed population densities. Total weed densities were not affected by tillage treatment except that of barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli), which increased only in moldboard plowing treated plots during 2003. Redroot pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)and black nightshade (Solanum nigrum) densities were reduced in continuous cotton, while purple nutsedge (Cyperus rotundus), E. crus-galli, S. nigrum, and johnsongras(Sorghum halepense) densities were reduced in tobacco. A. retroflexus and S. nigrum were effectively controlled by all herbicide treatments with inter-row hand hoeing,whereas E. crus-galli was effectively reduced by herbicides applied to cotton and tobacco. S. halepense density reduction was a result of herbicide applied to tobacco with inter-row hand hoeing. Yield of all crops was higher under moldboard plowing and herbicide treatments. Pre-sowing and pre-emergence herbicide treatments in cotton and pre-transplant in tobacco integrated with inter-row cultivation resulted in efficient control of annual weed species and good crop yields. These observations are of practical relevance to crop selection by farmers in order to maintain weed populations at economically acceptable densities through the integration of various planting dates, sustainable herbicide use and inter-row cultivation; tools of great importance in integrated weed management systems. Keywords: cropping sequence, herbicide, integrated weed management, inter-row cultivation,tillage.

Weaning diet induces sustained metabolic phenotype shift in the pig and influences host response to Bifidobacterium lactis NCC2818

Background The process of weaning causes a major shift in intestinal microbiota and is a critical period for developing appropriate immune responses in young mammals.Objective To use a new systems approach to provide an overview of host metabolism and the developing immune system in response to nutritional intervention around the weaning period.Design Piglets (n=14) were weaned onto either an egg-based or soya-based diet at 3 weeks until 7 weeks, when all piglets were switched onto a fish-based diet. Half the animals on each weaning diet received Bifidobacterium lactis NCC2818 supplementation from weaning onwards. Immunoglobulin production from immunologically relevant intestinal sites was quantified and the urinary (1)H NMR metabolic profile was obtained from each animal at post mortem (11 weeks).Results Different weaning diets induced divergent and sustained shifts in the metabolic phenotype, which resulted in the alteration of urinary gut microbial co-metabolites, even after 4 weeks of dietary standardisation. B lactis NCC2818 supplementation affected the systemic metabolism of the different weaning diet groups over and above the effects of diet. Additionally, production of gut mucosa-associated IgA and IgM was found to depend upon the weaning diet and on B lactis NCC2818 supplementation.ConclusionThe correlation of urinary (1)H NMR metabolic profile with mucosal immunoglobulin production was demonstrated, thus confirming the value of this multi-platform approach in uncovering non-invasive biomarkers of immunity. This has clear potential for translation into human healthcare with the development of urine testing as a means of assessing mucosal immune status. This might lead to early diagnosis of intestinal dysbiosis and with subsequent intervention, arrest disease development. This system enhances our overall understanding of pathologies under supra-organismal control.

On the drivers of inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability in Queensland, Australia

Queensland experiences considerable inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability, which impacts water-resource management, agriculture and infrastructure. To understand the mechanisms by which large-scale atmospheric and coupled air–sea processes drive these variations, empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to 1900–2010 seasonal Queensland rainfall. Fields from observations and the 20th Century Reanalysis are regressed onto the EOT timeseries to associate the EOTs with large-scale drivers. In winter, spring and summer the leading, state-wide EOTs are highly correlated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation modulates the summer ENSO teleconnection. In autumn, the leading EOT is associated with locally driven, late-season monsoon variations, while ENSO affects only tropical northern Queensland. Examining EOTs beyond the first, southeastern Queensland and the Cape York peninsula emerge as regions of coherent rainfall variability. In the southeast, rainfall anomalies respond to the strength and moisture content of onshore easterlies, controlled by Tasman Sea blocking. The summer EOT associated with onshore flow and blocking has been negative since 1970, consistent with the observed decline in rainfall along the heavily populated coast. The southeastern Queensland EOTs show considerable multi-decadal variability, which is independent of large-scale drivers. Summer rainfall in Cape York is associated with tropical-cyclone activity.

Humid periods in southern Arabia: windows of opportunity for modern human dispersal.

Arabia is a key area for the dispersal of anatomically modern humans (AMH, Homo sapiens) out of Africa. Given its modern hostile environment, the question of the timing of dispersal is also a question of climatic conditions. Fresh water and food were crucial factors facilitating AMH expansions into Arabia. By dating relict lake deposits, four periods of lake formation were identified: one during the early Holocene and three during the late Pleistocene centered ca. 80, ca. 100, and ca. 125 ka. Favorable environmental conditions during these periods allowed AMH to migrate across southern Arabia. Between ca. 75 and 10.5 ka, arid conditions prevailed and turned southern Arabia into a natural barrier for human dispersal. Thus, expansion of AMH through the southern corridor into Asia must have taken place before 75 ka, possibly in multiple dispersals.

Borrowing and shift-induced interference: contrasting patterns in French-Germanic contact in Brussels and Strasbourg

The main aim of the present article is to test hypotheses derived from the model for contact- induced language change as formulated in Thomason and Kaufman (1988 et seq.). As the model correctly predicts the asymmetries between the mutual influences of the Germanic and the Romance varieties in Brussels and Strasbourg it is a very powerful tool for describing the contact patterns in these cities. The analysis shows that the contact patterns are very similar, both from a quantitative and from a qualitative point of view, despite important differences in the sociolinguistic situation of both cities. The striking similarities in the outcome of language contact seem to find a plausible explanation in the fact that the language contact situations in both cities are similar from a typological point of view: in each city a variety of French is in contact with a Germanic variety (Alsatian and Brussels Dutch). Thus, the claim of the present article is that the structure of the languages plays a more prominent role in the outcome of language contact than the sociolinguistic history of the speakers.

Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s

European climate exhibits variability on a wide range of timescales. Understanding the nature and drivers of this variability is an essential step in developing robust climate predictions and risk assessments. The Atlantic Ocean has been suggested as an important driver of variability in European climate on decadal timescales1, but the importance of this influence in recent decades has been unclear, partly because of difficulties in separating the influence of the Atlantic Ocean from other contributions, for example, from the tropical Pacific Ocean and the stratosphere. Here we analyse four data sets derived from observations to show that, during the 1990s, there was a substantial shift in European climate towards a pattern characterized by anomalously wet summers in northern Europe, and hot, dry, summers in southern Europe, with related shifts in spring and autumn. These changes in climate coincided with a substantial warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, towards a state last seen in the 1950s. The patterns of European climate change in the 1990s are consistent with earlier changes attributed to the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean, and provide compelling evidence that the Atlantic Ocean was the key driver. Our results suggest that the recent pattern of anomalies in European climate will persist as long as the North Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm.

A rare case of solution and solid state inter-conversion of two copper(II) dimers and a copper(II) chain

Three Cu(II)-azido complexes of formula [Cu2L2(N-3)(2)] (1), [Cu2L2(N-3)(2)]center dot H2O (2) and [CuL(N-3)](n) (3) have been synthesized using the same tridentate Schiff base ligand HL (2-[(3-methylaminopropylimino)-methyl]-phenol), the condensation product of N-methyl-1,3-propanediamine and salicyldehyde). Compounds 1 and 2 are basal-apical mu-1,1 double azido bridged dimers. The dimeric structure of 1 is centro-symmetric but that of 2 is non-centrommetric. Compound 3 is a mu-1,1 single azido bridged 1D chain. The three complexes interconvert in solution and can be obtained in pure form by carefully controlling the synthetic conditions. Compound 2 undergoes an irreversible transformation to 1 upon dehydration in the solid state. The magnetic properties of compounds 1 and 2 show the presence of weak antiferromagnetic exchange interactions mediated by the double 1,1-N-3 azido bridges (J = -2.59(4) and -0.10(1) cm-(1), respectively). The single 1,1-N-3 bridge in compound 3 mediates a negligible exchange interaction.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.

Holocene and Pleistocene pluvial periods in Yemen, Southern Arabia

Arabia is an important potential pathway for the dispersal of Homo sapiens (“out of Africa”). Yet, because of its arid to hyper-arid climate humans could only migrate across southern Arabia during pluvial periods when environmental conditions were favorable. However, knowledge on the timing of Arabian pluvial periods prior to the Holocene is mainly based on a single and possibly incomplete speleothem record from Hoti Cave in Northern Oman. Additional terrestrial records from the Arabian Peninsula are needed to confirm the Hoti Cave record. Here we present a new speleothem record from Mukalla Cave in southern Yemen. The Mukalla Cave and Hoti Cave records clearly reveal that speleothems growth occurred solely during peak interglacial periods, corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1 (early to mid-Holocene), 5.1, 5.3, 5.5 (Eemian), 7.1, 7.5 and 9. Of these humid periods, highest precipitation occurred during MIS 5.5 and lowest during early to middle Holocene.

Indian summer monsoon variations could have affected the early Holocene woodland expansion in the Near East

Postglacial expansion of deciduous oak woodlands of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus Mountains, a major biome of the Near East, was delayed until the middle Holocene at ~6300 cal. yr BP. The current hypotheses explain this delay as a consequence of a regional aridity during the early Holocene, slow migration rates of forest trees, and/or a long history of land use and agro-pastoralism in this region. In the present paper, support is given to a hypothesis that suggests different precipitation seasonalities during the early Holocene compared with the late Holocene. The oak species of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus Mts, particularly Quercus brantii Lindl., are strongly dependent on spring precipitation for regeneration and are sensitive to a long dry season. Detailed analysis of modern atmospheric circulation patterns in SW Asia during the late spring suggests that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) intensification can modify the amount of late spring and/or early summer rainfall in western/northwestern Iran and eastern Anatolia, which could in turn have controlled the development of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus deciduous oak woodlands. During the early Holocene, the northwestward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could have displaced the subtropical anticyclonic belt or associated high pressure ridges to the northwest. The latter could, in turn, have prevented the southeastward penetration of low pressure systems originating from the North Atlantic and Black Sea regions. Such atmospheric configuration could have reduced or eliminated the spring precipitation creating a typical Mediterranean continental climate characterized by winter-dominated precipitation. This scenario highlights the complexity of biome response to climate system interactions in transitional climatic and biogeographical regions.

Pharmacometabonomic characterization of xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic phenotypes that account for inter-individual variation in isoniazid-induced toxicological response

An NMR-based pharmacometabonomic approach was applied to investigate inter-animal variation in response to isoniazid (INH; 200 and 400 mg/kg) in male Sprague-Dawley rats, alongside complementary clinical chemistry and histopathological analysis. Marked inter-animal variability in central nervous system (CNS) toxicity was identified following administration of a high dose of INH, which enabled characterization of CNS responders and CNS non-responders. High-resolution post-dose urinary (1)H NMR spectra were modeled both by their xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic information sets, enabling simultaneous identification of the differential metabolic fate of INH and its associated endogenous metabolic consequences in CNS responders and CNS non-responders. A characteristic xenobiotic metabolic profile was observed for CNS responders, which revealed higher urinary levels of pyruvate isonicotinylhydrazone and β-glucosyl isonicotinylhydrazide and lower levels of acetylisoniazid compared to CNS non-responders. This suggested that the capacity for acetylation of INH was lower in CNS responders, leading to increased metabolism via conjugation with pyruvate and glucose. In addition, the endogenous metabolic profile of CNS responders revealed higher urinary levels of lactate and glucose, in comparison to CNS non-responders. Pharmacometabonomic analysis of the pre-dose (1)H NMR urinary spectra identified a metabolic signature that correlated with the development of INH-induced adverse CNS effects and may represent a means of predicting adverse events and acetylation capacity when challenged with high dose INH. Given the widespread use of INH for the treatment of tuberculosis, this pharmacometabonomic screening approach may have translational potential for patient stratification to minimize adverse events.

Exploring identities and cultures in inter-professional education and collaborative professional practice

Although the concept of multi-agency working has been pursued and adopted as the most appropriate way to improve child care provision and health workforces in recent years, both in the UK and more globally, research suggests that participation in such work can be problematic. This article examines current developments in inter-professional education and collaborative professional practice. Drawing on desk research across the fields of Education, Health and Social Care, it applies a critical lens to re-examine inter-professional working using well-established concepts of profession, identity, culture, career, and training/work transitions. The article uses theoretical hooks to look for similarities and differences in the promotion of inter-professionality across the Education, Health and Social Care sectors, alongside those which occur within each. It looks towards a re-invigoration of knowledge creation and application through research. This is viewed as especially urgent in times of fragmentation, transformation, and arguably, disintegration, in the services its professional and academic educators and workers seek to serve.

Large-scale surface mass balance of ice sheets from a comprehensive atmospheric model

The surface mass balance for Greenland and Antarctica has been calculated using model data from an AMIP-type experiment for the period 1979–2001 using the ECHAM5 spectral transform model at different triangular truncations. There is a significant reduction in the calculated ablation for the highest model resolution, T319 with an equivalent grid distance of ca 40 km. As a consequence the T319 model has a positive surface mass balance for both ice sheets during the period. For Greenland, the models at lower resolution, T106 and T63, on the other hand, have a much stronger ablation leading to a negative surface mass balance. Calculations have also been undertaken for a climate change experiment using the IPCC scenario A1B, with a T213 resolution (corresponding to a grid distance of some 60 km) and comparing two 30-year periods from the end of the twentieth century and the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. For Greenland there is change of 495 km3/year, going from a positive to a negative surface mass balance corresponding to a sea level rise of 1.4 mm/year. For Antarctica there is an increase in the positive surface mass balance of 285 km3/year corresponding to a sea level fall by 0.8 mm/year. The surface mass balance changes of the two ice sheets lead to a sea level rise of 7 cm at the end of this century compared to end of the twentieth century. Other possible mass losses such as due to changes in the calving of icebergs are not considered. It appears that such changes must increase significantly, and several times more than the surface mass balance changes, if the ice sheets are to make a major contribution to sea level rise this century. The model calculations indicate large inter-annual variations in all relevant parameters making it impossible to identify robust trends from the examined periods at the end of the twentieth century. The calculated inter-annual variations are similar in magnitude to observations. The 30-year trend in SMB at the end of the twenty-first century is significant. The increase in precipitation on the ice sheets follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and is the main reason for the increase in the surface mass balance of Antarctica. On Greenland precipitation in the form of snow is gradually starting to decrease and cannot compensate for the increase in ablation. Another factor is the proportionally higher temperature increase on Greenland leading to a larger ablation. It follows that a modest increase in temperature will not be sufficient to compensate for the increase in accumulation, but this will change when temperature increases go beyond any critical limit. Calculations show that such a limit for Greenland might well be passed during this century. For Antarctica this will take much longer and probably well into following centuries.