How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

Fighting against Malaria: Prevent wars while waiting for the "miraculous" vaccine

The World Health Organization estimates that 300 million clinical cases of malaria occur annually and observed that during the 80's and part of the 90's its incidence increased. In this paper we explore the influence of refugees from civil wars on the incidence of malaria in the refugee-receiving countries. Using civil wars as an instrumental variable we show that for each 1,000 refugees there are between 2,000 and 2,700 cases of malaria in the refugee receiving country. On average 13% of the cases of malaria reported by the WHO are caused by forced migration as a consequence of civil wars.

Assessment of vaccine-induced CD4 T cell responses to the 119-143 immunodominant region of the tumor-specific antigen NY-ESO-1 using DRB1*0101 tetramers.

Abstract: Purpose: NY-ESO-1 (ESO), a tumor-specific antigen of the cancer/testis group, is presently viewed as an important model antigen for the development of generic anticancer vaccines. The ESO119-143 region is immunodominant following immunization with a recombinant ESO vaccine. In this study, we generated DRB1*0101/ESO119-143 tetramers and used them to assess CD4 T-cell responses in vaccinated patients expressing DRB1*0101 (DR1). Experimental Design: We generated tetramers of DRB1*0101 incorporating peptide ESO119-143 using a previously described strategy. We assessed ESO119-143-specific CD4 T cells in peptide-stimulated post-vaccine cultures using the tetramers. We isolated DR1/ESO119-143 tetramer(+) cells by cell sorting and characterized them functionally. We assessed vaccine-induced CD4(+) DR1/ESO119-143 tetramer(+) T cells ex vivo and characterized them phenotypically. Results: Staining of cultures from vaccinated patients with DR1/ESO119-143 tetramers identified vaccine-induced CD4 T cells. Tetramer(+) cells isolated by cell sorting were of T(H)1 type and efficiently recognized full-length ESO. We identified ESO123-137 as the minimal optimal epitope recognized by DR1-restricted ESO-specific CD4 T cells. By assessing DR1/ESO119-143 tetramer(+) cells using T cell receptor (TCR) beta chain variable region (V beta)-specific antibodies, we identified several frequently used V beta. Finally, direct ex vivo staining of patients' CD4 T cells with tetramers allowed the direct quantification and phenotyping of vaccine-induced ESO-specific CD4 T cells. Conclusions: The development of DR1/ESO119-143 tetramers, allowing the direct visualization, isolation, and characterization of ESO-specific CD4 T cells, will be instrumental for the evaluation of spontaneous and vaccine-induced immune responses to this important tumor antigen in DR1-expressing patients

Aleitamento Matereno Exclusivo na Cidade de Praia: Práticas e Conhecimentos Maternos

O aleitamento materno tem sido recomendado pela literatura científica especializada como caminho óptimo para se alimentar crianças nos diferentes contextos onde residem, com benefícios atribuídos a esta prática, que podem persistir para além da infância. O presente estudo volta-se ao aleitamento materno exclusivo nos primeiros seis meses de vida, com o objectivo geral de descrever essa prática junto das mães utentes dos centros de saúde da cidade da Praia, Ilha de Santiago, país Cabo Verde, bem como o conhecimento materno sobre aspectos relativos à promoção da amamentação exclusiva na referida faixa etária. Trata-se de um estudo epidemiológico, transversal e descritivo, envolvendo mães das crianças incluídas no estudo. A amostra foi constituída por 113 mães de crianças inscritas nos seis centros de saúde da referida cidade e a seleção das participantes deu-se a partir do método de amostragem não probabilística por conveniência. Procedeu-se à análise descritiva dos dados, com cálculo de frequências e percentagens para cada item do questionário e média, desvio padrão e mediana para as variáveis numéricas. A presença ou ausência de associação entre aleitamento materno exclusivo e cada uma das variáveis independentes foi investigada, com a sua significância avaliada pelo teste qui-quadrado. Os efeitos foram considerados estatisticamente significantes quando valor de p<0,05 e Odds Ratio com intervalo de confiança de 95%. Também, a correlação entre a prática de aleitamento materno exclusivo e a situação quanto à mediana de acertos maternos sobre amamentação foi verificada, sendo classificados em três níveis: bom (≥ 75%), regular (≥ 50% <75%) e ruim (< 50%). Para a análise das respostas às questões abertas, foi empregue o método de análise de conteúdo, seguindo o modelo instrumental de abordagem quantitativa. Os resultados mostraram que, do total das crianças, 78 (69,0%) estavam em aleitamento materno exclusivo, 33 (29,2%) em aleitamento materno e duas (1,8%) estavam completamente desmamadas. Aos seis meses, apenas sete (38,9%) estavam em aleitamento materno exclusivo. Os fatores que se associaram à amamentação exclusiva foram: não ser o primeiro filho, não usar beberão e a mãe não ser adolescente. Considerando as 26 questões relativas aos conhecimentos maternos sobre amamentação, houve considerável variação de acertos por mãe, sendo que o escore acima do mediano mais do que duplicou a chance de amamentação exclusiva. Os achados deste estudo reforçam a propriedade de se aprimorar, no âmbito dos serviços de saúde, o investimento em ações educativas, ao lado de demais acções de diagnóstico, protecção, apoio e promoção do aleitamento materno exclusivo.

Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

According to the economic approach to politicaltransitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a windowof opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theoryrequires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. Weuse rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find thatnegative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement indemocratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate thatfollowing a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent,democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and theprobability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentagepoints.

The economic effects of the Protestant Reformation: Testing the Weber hypothesis in the German Lands

Many theories, most famously Max Weber s essay on the Protestant ethic, have hypothesizedthat Protestantism should have favored economic development. With their considerablereligious heterogeneity and stability of denominational affiliations until the 19th century, theGerman Lands of the Holy Roman Empire present an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis.Using population figures in a dataset comprising 272 cities in the years 1300 1900, I find no effectsof Protestantism on economic growth. The finding is robust to the inclusion of a varietyof controls, and does not appear to depend on data selection or small sample size. In addition,Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development.I also analyze the endogeneity of religious choice; instrumental variables estimates ofthe effects of Protestantism are similar to the OLS results.

How do very open economies adjust to large immigration flows? Recent evidence from Spanish regions

In recent years, Spain has received unprecedented immigration flows. Between 2001 and 2006 the fraction of the population born abroad more than doubled, increasing from4.8% to 10.8%. For Spanish provinces with above-median inflows (relative to population),immigration increased by 24% the number of high school dropouts while only increasingcollege graduates by 11%. We study different channels by which regional labor markets haveabsorbed the large increase in relative supply of low educated workers. We identify theexogenous supply shock using historical immigrant settlement patterns by country of origin.Using data from the Labor Force Survey and the decennial Census, we find a large expansion ofemployment in high immigration regions. Disaggregating by industry, the absorption operatedthrough large increases in the share of low-educated workers, compared to the same industry inlow-immigration regions. We do not find changes in sectoral specialization. Overall, andperhaps surprisingly, the pattern of absorption is very similar to the one found in the US.

Market institutions and judicial rulemaking

Assuming that the degree of discretion granted to judges was the main distinguishing feature between common and civil law until the 19th century, we argue that constraining judicial discretion was instrumental in protecting freedom of contract and developing the market order in civil law. We test this hypothesis by analyzing the history of Western law. In England, a unique institutional balance between the Crown and the Parliament guaranteed private property and prompted the gradual evolution towards a legal framework that facilitated market relationships, a process that was supported by the English judiciary. On the Continent, however, legal constraints on the market were suppressed in a top-down fashion by the founders of the liberal state, often against the will of the incumbent judiciary. Constraining judicial discretion there was essential for enforcing freedom of contract and establishing the legal order of the market economy. In line with this evidence, our selection hypothesis casts doubts on the normative interpretation of empirical results that proclaim the superiority of one legal system over another, disregarding the local conditions and institutional interdependencies on which each legal system was grounded.

Characterization of cell-to-cell signaling-deficient Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains colonizing intubated patients.

Cell-to-cell signaling involving N-acyl-homoserine lactone compounds termed autoinducers (AIs) is instrumental to virulence factor production and biofilm development by Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In order to determine the importance of cell-to-cell signaling during the colonization of mechanically ventilated patients, we collected 442 P. aeruginosa pulmonary isolates from 13 patients. Phenotypic characterization showed that 81% of these isolates produced the AI-dependent virulence factors elastase, protease, and rhamnolipids. We identified nine genotypically distinct P. aeruginosa strains. Six of these strains produced AIs [N-butanoyl-homoserine lactone or N-(3-oxo-dodecanoyl)-homoserine lactone] and extracellular virulence factors (elastase, total exoprotease, rhamnolipid, hydrogen cyanide, or pyocyanin) in vitro. Three of the nine strains were defective in the production of both AIs and extracellular virulence factors. Two of these strains had mutational defects in both the lasR and rhlR genes, which encode the N-acyl-homoserine lactone-dependent transcriptional regulators LasR and RhlR, respectively. The third of these AI-deficient strains was only mutated in the lasR gene. Our observations suggest that most, but not all, strains colonizing intubated patients are able to produce virulence factors and that mutations affecting the cell-to-cell signaling circuit are preferentially located in the transcriptional regulator genes.

Avaluació d'un espectrofotòmetre NIR en miniatura pel seu ús en processos industrials i controls de qualitat

En aquest treball s’avalua la idoneïtat d’un nou espectrofotòmetre NIR en miniatura per ser emprat com eina d’anàlisis de productes farmacèutics. L’avaluació es presenta en tres tipus d’assaigs: (1) anàlisi i comparació dels nivells de senyal i soroll de la resposta instrumental, (2) la identificació de matèries primes mitjançant la construcció de biblioteques espectrals i (3) la quantificació d’ingredient actiu en una formulació farmacèutica mitjançant models de calibratge multivariables. Els resultats obtinguts amb aquest instrument són comparables amb els obtinguts fent servir aparells convencionals, demostrant que aquesta nova tecnologia suposa un avenç en el control global de processos farmacèutics.

Morgagnian cataract simulating iris neoplasia : case report

Purpose: to describe a case in which the diagnosis of Morganian cataract required clinical and instrumental differentiation from iris pathologies, including iris melanoma. Methods: a 60-years-old Caucasian man referred to our institute for worsening of vision in last few months. Clinical evaluation consisted in complete ophthalmological assessment, ultrasound examination (biomicroscopy and 20MHz), and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) completed with Susceptibility Weighted Imaging (SWI). Results: traumatic corneal wound of the left eye (LE) had occurred 5 years before, and was treated with medical therapy alone. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 3/10 in the right eye (RE) and finger count in the LE, with intraocular pressure at 13 and 20mmHg, respectively. Chronic central serous chorioretinopathy, accounted for the low visual acuity of the RE. Slit-lamp biomicroscopy of the LE was as in Figure 1; LE fundus was not clinically observable. Despite MRI was compatible with an iris solid formation, characterized by contrast enhancement and hyperintense signal in SWI, ultrasound indicated rather a mixed solid and liquid content (moderately echogenic external layer, hyporeflective internal content). Iris root and ciliary body were not significantly altered; the lens showed inhomogeneous content. We considered Morgagnian cataract the most probable diagnosis. Surgery confirmed the presence of a hypermature cataract with prior anterior capsule fissuring; the liquefied cortex infiltrated the iris without anterior chamber seeping. Post-operative BCVA was 3/10 and fundus examination disclosed an advanced macular chronic central serous chorioretinopathy. Conclusions: In the reported case a previous perforating trauma have probably damaged the lens capsule and started cataract progression. Curiously cataract developed percolating into the iris stroma, thus simulating an iris mass. At our knowledge, Morgagnian cataract has never been included in the differential diagnosis of iris mass.

Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status: bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis of multiple cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used information from 21 adult cohorts (up to 42,024 participants) with 12 BMI-related SNPs (combined in an allelic score) to produce an instrument for BMI and four SNPs associated with 25(OH)D (combined in two allelic scores, separately for genes encoding its synthesis or metabolism) as an instrument for vitamin D. Regression estimates for the IVs (allele scores) were generated within-study and pooled by meta-analysis to generate summary effects. Associations between vitamin D scores and BMI were confirmed in the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium (n = 123,864). Each 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI was associated with 1.15% lower 25(OH)D (p = 6.52×10⁻²⁷). The BMI allele score was associated both with BMI (p = 6.30×10⁻⁶²) and 25(OH)D (-0.06% [95% CI -0.10 to -0.02], p = 0.004) in the cohorts that underwent meta-analysis. The two vitamin D allele scores were strongly associated with 25(OH)D (p≤8.07×10⁻⁵⁷ for both scores) but not with BMI (synthesis score, p = 0.88; metabolism score, p = 0.08) in the meta-analysis. A 10% higher genetically instrumented BMI was associated with 4.2% lower 25(OH)D concentrations (IV ratio: -4.2 [95% CI -7.1 to -1.3], p = 0.005). No association was seen for genetically instrumented 25(OH)D with BMI, a finding that was confirmed using data from the GIANT consortium (p≥0.57 for both vitamin D scores). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of a bi-directional genetic approach that limits confounding, our study suggests that a higher BMI leads to lower 25(OH)D, while any effects of lower 25(OH)D increasing BMI are likely to be small. Population level interventions to reduce BMI are expected to decrease the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.

Fuerza prensil de la mano asociada al grado de autonomía y riesgo de caída en ancianos

Objetivo: Determinación de la fuerza de prensión de la mano como indicador de la capacidad funcional y grado de autonomía para actividades cotidianas en personas de la tercera edad. Diseño: Se realizó un estudio observacional de diseño transversal. Emplazamiento: Medio comunitario. Centros cívicos, centros culturales y residencias de la tercera edad de la comarca del Bages (Barcelona). 2 Participantes: Se estudió a 61 personas, 40 mujeres y 21 hombres, con un rango de edad comprendido entre los 65 y 90 años, quienes no presentaban afecciones invalidantes graves. Se solicitó su colaboración y aceptación voluntaria tras informar del objetivo del estudio. Mediciones principales: El grado de autonomía funcional se valoró mediante el test de Barthel y el test de Lawton-Brody, y el riesgo de caída mediante el test de Tinetti. La fuerza muscular máxima voluntaria (FMMV) se determinó mediante el test de prensión de la mano (handgrip). Resultados: Los hombres mostraron una correlación positiva y estadísticamente significativa (p=0.001) entre la fuerza prensil de la mano y el grado de autonomía funcional y el menor riesgo de caída (p=0.037). Dicha correlación no fue observada en las mujeres respecto al grado de autonomía (p=0.232) y fue escasa para el riesgo de caída (p=0.048). Conclusiones: El test de handgrip es una herramienta potencialmente útil para estimar la autonomía funcional e instrumental y el riesgo de caídas, especialmente en varones que sobrepasan los 65 años.

Stationarity analysis of historical flood series in France and Spain (14th-20th centuries)

Interdisciplinary frameworks for studying natural hazards and their temporal trends have an important potential in data generation for risk assessment, land use planning, and therefore the sustainable management of resources. This paper focuses on the adjustments required because of the wide variety of scientific fields involved in the reconstruction and characterisation of flood events for the past 1000 years. The aim of this paper is to describe various methodological aspects of the study of flood events in their historical dimension, including the critical evaluation of old documentary and instrumental sources, flood-event classification and hydraulic modelling, and homogeneity and quality control tests. Standardized criteria for flood classification have been defined and applied to the Isère and Drac floods in France, from 1600 to 1950, and to the Ter, the Llobregat and the Segre floods, in Spain, from 1300 to 1980. The analysis on the Drac and Isère data series from 1600 to the present day showed that extraordinary and catastrophic floods were not distributed uniformly in time. However, the largest floods (general catastrophic floods) were homogeneously distributed in time within the period 1600¿1900. No major flood occurred during the 20th century in these rivers. From 1300 to the present day, no homogeneous behaviour was observed for extraordinary floods in the Spanish rivers. The largest floods were uniformly distributed in time within the period 1300-1900, for the Segre and Ter rivers.

A flood geodatabase and its climatological applications: the case of Catalonia for the last century

Floods are the natural hazards that produce the highest number of casualties and material damage in the Western Mediterranean. An improvement in flood risk assessment and study of a possible increase in flooding occurrence are therefore needed. To carry out these tasks it is important to have at our disposal extensive knowledge on historical floods and to find an efficient way to manage this geographical data. In this paper we present a complete flood database spanning the 20th century for the whole of Catalonia (NE Spain), which includes documentary information (affected areas and damage) and instrumental information (meteorological and hydrological records). This geodatabase, named Inungama, has been implemented on a GIS (Geographical Information System) in order to display all the information within a given geographical scenario, as well as to carry out an analysis thereof using queries, overlays and calculus. Following a description of the type and amount of information stored in the database and the structure of the information system, the first applications of Inungama are presented. The geographical distribution of floods shows the localities which are more likely to be flooded, confirming that the most affected municipalities are the most densely populated ones in coastal areas. Regarding the existence of an increase in flooding occurrence, a temporal analysis has been carried out, showing a steady increase over the last 30 years.