A structural model of Australia as a small open economy

This paper sets up and estimates a structuralmodel of Australia as a small open economyusing Bayesian techniques. Unlike other recentstudies, the paper shows that a small microfoundedmodel can capture the open economydimensions quite well. Specifically, the modelattributes a substantial fraction of the volatilityof domestic output and inflation to foreigndisturbances, close to what is suggested by unrestrictedVAR studies. The paper also investigatesthe effects of various exogenous shockson the Australian economy.

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

A simple model of multiple equilibria based on risk

This paper shows how risk may aggravate fluctuations in economies with imperfect insurance and multiple assets. A two period job matching model is studied, in which risk averse agents act both as workers and as entrepreneurs. They choose between two types of investment: one type is riskless, while the other is a risky activity that creates jobs.Equilibrium is unique under full insurance. If investment is fully insured but unemployment risk is uninsured, then precautionary saving behavior dampens output fluctuations. However, if both investment and employment are uninsured, then an increase in unemployment gives agents an incentive to shift investment away from the risky asset, further increasing unemployment. This positive feedback may lead to multiple Pareto ranked equilibria. An overlapping generations version of the model may exhibit poverty traps or persistent multiplicity. Greater insurance is doubly beneficial in this context since it can both prevent multiplicity and promote risky investment.

Inflation and output dynamics with firm-owned capital

We model firm-owned capital in a stochastic dynamic New-Keynesian generalequilibrium model à la Calvo. We find that this structure impliesequilibrium dynamics which are quantitatively di¤erent from the onesassociated with a benchmark case where households accumulate capital andrent it to firms. Our findings therefore stress the importance ofmodeling an investment decision at the firm level in addition to ameaningful price setting decision. Along the way we argue that the problemof modeling firm-owned capital with Calvo price-setting has not been solvedin a correct way in the previous literature.

Extraction of soil water by plants: development and validation of a model

A quantitative model of water movement within the immediate vicinity of an individual root is developed and results of an experiment to validate the model are presented. The model is based on the assumption that the amount of water transpired by a plant in a certain period is replaced by an equal volume entering its root system during the same time. The model is based on the Darcy-Buckingham equation to calculate the soil water matric potential at any distance from a plant root as a function of parameters related to crop, soil and atmospheric conditions. The model output is compared against measurements of soil water depletion by rice roots monitored using γ-beam attenuation in a greenhouse of the Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz"/Universidade de São Paulo(ESALQ/USP) in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 1993. The experimental results are in agreement with the output from the model. Model simulations show that a single plant root is able to withdraw water from more than 0.1 m away within a few days. We therefore can assume that root distribution is a less important factor for soil water extraction efficiency.

Discordant increases in CD4+ T cells in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients experiencing virologic treatment failure: role of changes in thymic output and T cell death.

Some patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who are experiencing antiretroviral treatment failure have persistent improvement in CD4+ T cell counts despite high plasma viremia. To explore the mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon, 2 parameters influencing the dynamics of CD4+ T cells were evaluated: death of mature CD4+ T cells and replenishment of the CD4+ T cell pool by the thymus. The improvement in CD4+ T cells observed in patients with treatment failure was not correlated with spontaneous, Fas ligand-induced, or activation-induced T cell death. In contrast, a significant correlation between the improvement in CD4+ T cell counts and thymic output, as assessed by measurement of T cell receptor excision circles, was observed. These observations suggest that increased thymic output contributes to the dissociation between CD4+ T cell counts and viremia in patients failing antiretroviral therapy and support a model in which drug-resistant HIV strains may have reduced replication rates and pathogenicity in the thymus.

Effect of expiratory flow limitation on respiratory mechanical impedance: a model study

Large phasic variations of respiratory mechanical impedance (Zrs) have been observed during induced expiratory flow limitation (EFL) (M. Vassiliou, R. Peslin, C. Saunier, and C. Duvivier. Eur. Respir. J. 9: 779-786, 1996). To clarify the meaning of Zrs during EFL, we have measured from 5 to 30 Hz the input impedance (Zin) of mechanical analogues of the respiratory system, including flow-limiting elements (FLE) made of easily collapsible rubber tubing. The pressures upstream (Pus) and downstream (Pds) from the FLE were controlled and systematically varied. Maximal flow (Vmax) increased linearly with Pus, was close to the value predicted from wave-speed theory, and was obtained for Pus-Pds of 4-6 hPa. The real part of Zin started increasing abruptly with flow (V) >85%Vmax and either further increased or suddenly decreased in the vicinity of V¿max. The imaginary part of Zin decreased markedly and suddenly above 95%Vmax. Similar variations of Zin during EFL were seen with an analogue that mimicked the changes of airway transmural pressure during breathing. After pressure andV measurements upstream and downstream from the FLE were combined, the latter was analyzed in terms of a serial (Zs) and a shunt (Zp) compartment. Zs was consistent with a large resistance and inertance, and Zp with a mainly elastic element having an elastance close to that of the tube walls. We conclude that Zrs data during EFL mainly reflect the properties of the FLE.

Essays on the measurement of school efficiency

Measuring school efficiency is a challenging task. First, a performance measurement technique has to be selected. Within Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), one such technique, alternative models have been developed in order to deal with environmental variables. The majority of these models lead to diverging results. Second, the choice of input and output variables to be included in the efficiency analysis is often dictated by data availability. The choice of the variables remains an issue even when data is available. As a result, the choice of technique, model and variables is probably, and ultimately, a political judgement. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods can help the decision makers to select the most suitable model. The number of selection criteria should remain parsimonious and not be oriented towards the results of the models in order to avoid opportunistic behaviour. The selection criteria should also be backed by the literature or by an expert group. Once the most suitable model is identified, the principle of permanence of methods should be applied in order to avoid a change of practices over time. Within DEA, the two-stage model developed by Ray (1991) is the most convincing model which allows for an environmental adjustment. In this model, an efficiency analysis is conducted with DEA followed by an econometric analysis to explain the efficiency scores. An environmental variable of particular interest, tested in this thesis, consists of the fact that operations are held, for certain schools, on multiple sites. Results show that the fact of being located on more than one site has a negative influence on efficiency. A likely way to solve this negative influence would consist of improving the use of ICT in school management and teaching. Planning new schools should also consider the advantages of being located on a unique site, which allows reaching a critical size in terms of pupils and teachers. The fact that underprivileged pupils perform worse than privileged pupils has been public knowledge since Coleman et al. (1966). As a result, underprivileged pupils have a negative influence on school efficiency. This is confirmed by this thesis for the first time in Switzerland. Several countries have developed priority education policies in order to compensate for the negative impact of disadvantaged socioeconomic status on school performance. These policies have failed. As a result, other actions need to be taken. In order to define these actions, one has to identify the social-class differences which explain why disadvantaged children underperform. Childrearing and literary practices, health characteristics, housing stability and economic security influence pupil achievement. Rather than allocating more resources to schools, policymakers should therefore focus on related social policies. For instance, they could define pre-school, family, health, housing and benefits policies in order to improve the conditions for disadvantaged children.

Subclass problem-dependent design for error-correcting output codes

A common way to model multiclass classification problems is by means of Error-Correcting Output Codes (ECOCs). Given a multiclass problem, the ECOC technique designs a code word for each class, where each position of the code identifies the membership of the class for a given binary problem. A classification decision is obtained by assigning the label of the class with the closest code. One of the main requirements of the ECOC design is that the base classifier is capable of splitting each subgroup of classes from each binary problem. However, we cannot guarantee that a linear classifier model convex regions. Furthermore, nonlinear classifiers also fail to manage some type of surfaces. In this paper, we present a novel strategy to model multiclass classification problems using subclass information in the ECOC framework. Complex problems are solved by splitting the original set of classes into subclasses and embedding the binary problems in a problem-dependent ECOC design. Experimental results show that the proposed splitting procedure yields a better performance when the class overlap or the distribution of the training objects conceal the decision boundaries for the base classifier. The results are even more significant when one has a sufficiently large training size.

Visualization Resources for Iowa State University and the Iowa DOT: An Automated Design Model to Simulator Converter, November 2012

This project developed an automatic conversion software tool that takes input a from an Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) MicroStation three-dimensional (3D) design file and converts it into a form that can be used by the University of Iowa’s National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS) MiniSim. Once imported into the simulator, the new roadway has the identical geometric design features as in the Iowa DOT design file. The base roadway appears as a wireframe in the simulator software. Through additional software tools, textures and shading can be applied to the roadway surface and surrounding terrain to produce the visual appearance of an actual road. This tool enables Iowa DOT engineers to work with the universities to create drivable versions of prospective roadway designs. By driving the designs in the simulator, problems can be identified early in the design process. The simulated drives can also be used for public outreach and human factors driving research.

Simulation of growth and development of irrigated cowpea in Piauí State by CROPGRO model

The objective of this work was to adapt the CROPGRO model, which is part of the DSSAT system, for simulating the cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) growth and development under soil and climate conditions of the Baixo Parnaíba region, Piauí State, Brazil. In the CROPGRO, only input parameters that define crop species, cultivars, and ecotype were changed in order to characterize the cowpea crop. Soil and climate files were created for the considered site. Field experiments without water deficit were used to calibrate the model. In these experiments, dry matter (DM), leaf area index (LAI), yield components and grain yield of cowpea (cv. BR 14 Mulato) were evaluated. The results showed good fit for DM and LAI estimates. The medium values of R² and medium absolute error (MAE) were, respectively, 0.95 and 264.9 kg ha-1 for DM, and 0.97 and 0.22 for LAI. The difference between observed and simulated values of plant phenology varied from 0 to 3 days. The model also presented good performance for yield components simulation, excluding 100-grain weight, for which the error ranged from 20.9% to 34.3%. Considering the medium values of crop yield in two years, the model presented an error from 5.6%.

Independent Central Banks: Low inflation at no cost?: A model with fiscal policy

In this article we extend the rational partisan model of Alesina and Gatti (1995) to include a second policy, fiscal policy, besides monetary policy. It is shown that, with this extension, the politically induced variance of output is not always eliminated nor reduced by delegating monetary policy to an independent and conservative central bank. Further, in flation and output stabilisation will be affected by the degree of conservativeness of the central bank and by the probability of the less in flation averse party gaining power. Keywords: rational partisan theory; fiscal policy; independent central bank JEL Classi fication: E58, E63.

Parametric Approach to Blind Deconvolution of Nonlinear Channels

A parametric procedure for the blind inversion of nonlinear channels is proposed, based on a recent method of blind source separation in nonlinear mixtures. Experiments show that the proposed algorithms perform efficiently, even in the presence of hard distortion. The method, based on the minimization of the output mutual information, needs the knowledge of log-derivative of input distribution (the so-called score function). Each algorithm consists of three adaptive blocks: one devoted to adaptive estimation of the score function, and two other blocks estimating the inverses of the linear and nonlinear parts of the channel, (quasi-)optimally adapted using the estimated score functions. This paper is mainly concerned by the nonlinear part, for which we propose two parametric models, the first based on a polynomial model and the second on a neural network, while [14, 15] proposed non-parametric approaches.

A qualitative continuous model of cellular auxin and brassinosteroid signaling and their crosstalk.

Motivation: Hormone pathway interactions are crucial in shaping plant development, such as synergism between the auxin and brassinosteroid pathways in cell elongation. Both hormone pathways have been characterized in detail, revealing several feedback loops. The complexity of this network, combined with a shortage of kinetic data, renders its quantitative analysis virtually impossible at present.Results: As a first step towards overcoming these obstacles, we analyzed the network using a Boolean logic approach to build models of auxin and brassinosteroid signaling, and their interaction. To compare these discrete dynamic models across conditions, we transformed them into qualitative continuous systems, which predict network component states more accurately and can accommodate kinetic data as they become available. To this end, we developed an extension for the SQUAD software, allowing semi-quantitative analysis of network states. Contrasting the developmental output depending on cell type-specific modulators enabled us to identify a most parsimonious model, which explains initially paradoxical mutant phenotypes and revealed a novel physiological feature.

Capacity of MIMO Channels: asymptotic evaluation under correlated fading

This paper investigates the asymptotic uniform power allocation capacity of frequency nonselective multiple-inputmultiple-output channels with fading correlation at either thetransmitter or the receiver. We consider the asymptotic situation,where the number of inputs and outputs increase without boundat the same rate. A simple uniparametric model for the fadingcorrelation function is proposed and the asymptotic capacity perantenna is derived in closed form. Although the proposed correlationmodel is introduced only for mathematical convenience, itis shown that its shape is very close to an exponentially decayingcorrelation function. The asymptotic expression obtained providesa simple and yet useful way of relating the actual fadingcorrelation to the asymptotic capacity per antenna from a purelyanalytical point of view. For example, the asymptotic expressionsindicate that fading correlation is more harmful when arising atthe side with less antennas. Moreover, fading correlation does notinfluence the rate of growth of the asymptotic capacity per receiveantenna with high Eb /N0.