852 resultados para Inference


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Background: Concerted evolution is normally used to describe parallel changes at different sites in a genome, but it is also observed in languages where a specific phoneme changes to the same other phoneme in many words in the lexicon—a phenomenon known as regular sound change. We develop a general statistical model that can detect concerted changes in aligned sequence data and apply it to study regular sound changes in the Turkic language family. Results: Linguistic evolution, unlike the genetic substitutional process, is dominated by events of concerted evolutionary change. Our model identified more than 70 historical events of regular sound change that occurred throughout the evolution of the Turkic language family, while simultaneously inferring a dated phylogenetic tree. Including regular sound changes yielded an approximately 4-fold improvement in the characterization of linguistic change over a simpler model of sporadic change, improved phylogenetic inference, and returned more reliable and plausible dates for events on the phylogenies. The historical timings of the concerted changes closely follow a Poisson process model, and the sound transition networks derived from our model mirror linguistic expectations. Conclusions: We demonstrate that a model with no prior knowledge of complex concerted or regular changes can nevertheless infer the historical timings and genealogical placements of events of concerted change from the signals left in contemporary data. Our model can be applied wherever discrete elements—such as genes, words, cultural trends, technologies, or morphological traits—can change in parallel within an organism or other evolving group.

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1. Agri-environment schemes remain a controversial approach to reversing biodiversity losses, partly because the drivers of variation in outcomes are poorly understood. In particular, there is a lack of studies that consider both social and ecological factors. 2. We analysed variation across 48 farms in the quality and biodiversity outcomes of agri-environmental habitats designed to provide pollen and nectar for bumblebees and butterflies or winter seed for birds. We used interviews and ecological surveys to gather data on farmer experience and understanding of agri-environment schemes, and local and landscape environmental factors. 3. Multimodel inference indicated social factors had a strong impact on outcomes and that farmer experiential learning was a key process. The quality of the created habitat was affected positively by the farmer’s previous experience in environmental management. The farmer’s confidence in their ability to carry out the required management was negatively related to the provision of floral resources. Farmers with more wildlife-friendly motivations tended to produce more floral resources, but fewer seed resources. 4. Bird, bumblebee and butterfly biodiversity responses were strongly affected by the quantity of seed or floral resources. Shelter enhanced biodiversity directly, increased floral resources and decreased seed yield. Seasonal weather patterns had large effects on both measures. Surprisingly, larger species pools and amounts of semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape had negative effects on biodiversity, which may indicate use by fauna of alternative foraging resources. 5. Synthesis and application. This is the first study to show a direct role of farmer social variables on the success of agri-environment schemes in supporting farmland biodiversity. It suggests that farmers are not simply implementing agri-environment options, but are learning and improving outcomes by doing so. Better engagement with farmers and working with farmers who have a history of environmental management may therefore enhance success. The importance of a number of environmental factors may explain why agri-environment outcomes are variable, and suggests some – such as the weather – cannot be controlled. Others, such as shelter, could be incorporated into agri-environment prescriptions. The role of landscape factors remains complex and currently eludes simple conclusions about large-scale targeting of schemes.

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We investigated the processes of how adult readers evaluate and revise their situation model during reading by monitoring their eye movements as they read narrative texts and subsequent critical sentences. In each narrative text, a short introduction primed a knowledge-based inference, followed by a target concept that was either expected (e.g., “oven”) or unexpected (e.g., “grill”) in relation to the inferred concept. Eye movements showed that readers detected a mismatch between the new unexpected information and their prior interpretation, confirming their ability to evaluate inferential information. Just below the narrative text, a critical sentence included a target word that was either congruent (e.g., “roasted”) or incongruent (e.g., “barbecued”) with the expected but not the unexpected concept. Readers spent less time reading the congruent than the incongruent target word, reflecting the facilitation of prior information. In addition, when the unexpected (but not expected) concept had been presented, participants with lower verbal (but not visuospatial) working memory span exhibited longer reading times and made more regressions (from the critical sentence to previous information) on encountering congruent information, indicating difficulty in inhibiting their initial incorrect interpretation and revising their situation model

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The present paper highlights some of the issues involved in interpreting the communication behaviours of people with profound and multiple learning difficulties (PMLDs). Both inference and intention can play an important role in the communication process, and this raises a number of difficulties and dangers where one of the communication partners is not in a position to correct misunderstandings. The present authors discuss the importance of validating communication and pose a number of key questions to ask those who are most significant in the life of a person with PMLDs. A case study is provided that illustrates a number of these issues.

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Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular family of algorithms which perform approximate parameter inference when numerical evaluation of the likelihood function is not possible but data can be simulated from the model. They return a sample of parameter values which produce simulations close to the observed dataset. A standard approach is to reduce the simulated and observed datasets to vectors of summary statistics and accept when the difference between these is below a specified threshold. ABC can also be adapted to perform model choice. In this article, we present a new software package for R, abctools which provides methods for tuning ABC algorithms. This includes recent dimension reduction algorithms to tune the choice of summary statistics, and coverage methods to tune the choice of threshold. We provide several illustrations of these routines on applications taken from the ABC literature.

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The origin of tropical forest diversity has been hotly debated for decades. Although specific mechanisms vary, many such explanations propose some vicariance in the distribution of species during glacial cycles and several have been supported by genetic evidence in Neotropical taxa. However, no consensus exists with regard to the extent or time frame of the vicariance events. Here, we analyse the cytochrome oxidase II mitochondrial gene of 250 Sabethes albiprivus B mosquitoes sampled from western Sao Paulo in Brazil. There was very low population structuring among collection sites (Phi(ST) = 0.03, P = 0.04). Historic demographic analyses and the contemporary geographic distribution of genetic diversity suggest that the populations sampled are not at demographic equilibrium. Three distinct mitochondrial clades were observed in the samples, one of which differed significantly in its geographic distribution relative to the other two within a small sampling area (similar to 70 x 35 km). This fact, supported by the inability of maximum likelihood analyses to achieve adequate fits to simple models for the population demography of the species, suggests a more complex history, possibly involving disjunct forest refugia. This hypothesis is supported by a genetic signal of recent population growth, which is expected if population sizes of this forest-obligate insect increased during the forest expansions that followed glacial periods. Although a time frame cannot be reliably inferred for the vicariance event leading to the three genetic clades, molecular clock estimates place this at similar to 1 Myr before present.

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the possible use of biometric testicular traits as selection criteria for young Nellore bulls using Bayesian inference to estimate heritability coefficients and genetic correlations. Multitrait analysis was performed including 17,211 records of scrotal circumference obtained during andrological assessment (SCAND) and 15,313 records of testicular volume and shape. In addition, 50,809 records of scrotal circumference at 18 mo (SC18), used as an anchor trait, were analyzed. The (co) variance components and breeding values were estimated by Gibbs sampling using the Gibbs2F90 program under an animal model that included contemporary groups as fixed effects, age of the animal as a linear covariate, and direct additive genetic effects as random effects. Heritabilities of 0.42, 0.43, 0.31, 0.20, 0.04, 0.16, 0.15, and 0.10 were obtained for SC18, SCAND, testicular volume, testicular shape, minor defects, major defects, total defects, and satisfactory andrological evaluation, respectively. The genetic correlations between SC18 and the other traits were 0.84 (SCAND), 0.75 (testicular shape), 0.44 (testicular volume), -0.23 (minor defects), -0.16 (major defects), -0.24 (total defects), and 0.56 (satisfactory andrological evaluation). Genetic correlations of 0.94 and 0.52 were obtained between SCAND and testicular volume and shape, respectively, and of 0.52 between testicular volume and testicular shape. In addition to favorable genetic parameter estimates, SC18 was found to be the most advantageous testicular trait due to its easy measurement before andrological assessment of the animals, even though the utilization of biometric testicular traits as selection criteria was also found to be possible. In conclusion, SC18 and biometric testicular traits can be adopted as a selection criterion to improve the fertility of young Nellore bulls.

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The distribution of masses for neutron stars is analysed using the Bayesian statistical inference, evaluating the likelihood of the proposed Gaussian peaks by using 54 measured points obtained in a variety of systems. The results strongly suggest the existence of a bimodal distribution of the masses, with the first peak around 1.37 M(circle dot) and a much wider second peak at 1.73 M(circle dot). The results support earlier views related to the different evolutionary histories of the members for the first two peaks, which produces a natural separation (even if no attempt to `label` the systems has been made here). They also accommodate the recent findings of similar to M(circle dot) masses quite naturally. Finally, we explore the existence of a subgroup around 1.25 M(circle dot), finding weak, if any, evidence for it. This recently claimed low-mass subgroup, possibly related to the O-Mg-Ne core collapse events, has a monotonically decreasing likelihood and does not stand out clearly from the rest of the sample.

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Tribe Rhipsalideae is composed of unusual epiphytic or lithophytic cacti that inhabit humid tropical and subtropical forests. Members of this tribe present a reduced vegetative body, a specialized adventitious root system, usually spineless areoles and flowers and fruits reduced in size. Despite the debate surrounding the classification of Rhipsalideae, no studies have ever attempted to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among its members or to test the monophyly of its genera using DNA sequence data; all classifications formerly proposed for this tribe have only employed morphological data. In this study, we reconstruct the phylogeny of Rhipsalideae using plastid (trnQ-rps16, rpl32-trnL, psbA-trnH) and nuclear (ITS) markers to evaluate the classifications previously proposed for the group. We also examine morphological features traditionally used to delimit genera within Rhipsalideae in light of the resulting phylogenetic trees. In total new sequences for 35 species of Rhipsalideae were produced (out of 55: 63%). The molecular phylogeny obtained comprises four main clades supporting the recognition of genera Lepismium, Rhipsalis, Hatiora and Schlumbergera. The evidence gathered indicate that a broader genus Schlumbergera, including Hatiora subg. Rhipsalidopsis, should be recognized. Consistent morphological characters rather than homoplastic features are used in order to establish a more coherent and practical classification for the group. Nomenclatural changes and a key for the identification of the genera currently included in Rhipsalideae are provided. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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The phylogenetic placement of Kuhlmanniodendron Fiaschi & Groppo (Achariaceae) within Malpighiales was investigated with rbcL sequence data. This genus was recently created to accommodate Carpotroche apterocarpa Kuhlm., a poorly known species from the rainforests of Espirito Santo, Brazil. One rbcL sequence was obtained from Kuhlmanniodendron and analyzed with 73 additional sequences from Malpighiales, and 8 from two closer orders, Oxalidales and Celastrales, all of which were available at Genbank. Phylogenetic analyses were carried out with maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference; bootstrap analyses were used in maximum parsimony to evaluate branch support. The results confirmed the placement of Kuhlmanniodendron together with Camptostylus, Lindackeria, Xylotheca, and Caloncoba in a strongly supported clade (posterior probability = 0.99) that corresponds with the tribe Lindackerieae of Achariaceae (Malpighiales). Kuhlmanniodendron also does not appear to be closely related to Oncoba (Salicaceae), an African genus with similar floral and fruit morphology that has been traditionally placed among cyanogenic Flacourtiaceae (now Achariaceae). A picrosodic paper test was performed in herbarium dry leaves, and the presence of cyanogenic glycosides, a class of compounds usually found in Achariaceae, was detected. Pollen morphology and wood anatomy of Kuhlmanniodendron were also investigated, but both pollen (3-colporate and microreticulate) and wood, with solitary to multiple vessels, scalariform perforation plates and other features, do not seem to be useful to distinguish this genus from other members of the Achariaceae and are rather common among the eudicotyledons as a whole. However, perforated ray cells with scalariform plates, an uncommon wood character, present in Kuhlmanniodendron are similar to those found in Kiggelaria africana (Pangieae, Achariaceae), but the occurrence of such cells is not mapped among the angiosperms, and it is not clear how homoplastic this character could be.

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Molecular and morphological data have shown that Bombacoideae and Malvoideae together form a well-supported Malvatheca clade. Phylogenetic relationships in Bombacoideae have been studied, but some genera in Bombax s. I. have not been adequately sampled for sufficiently variable molecular markers. The relationships of Eriotheca, for example, have yet to be resolved. Here, nuclear (ITS) and chloroplast (trnL-Fand matK) sequence data from 50 exemplars of Bombacoideae and seven additional taxa from other genera of Malvatheca were used to test monophyly of Eriotheca and its relationships with related genera of Bombax s. I. Parsimony and Bayesian analyses of individual and combined sequence data suggest that Eriotheca is not monophyletic as currently circumscribed but forms a paraphyletic grade containing Pachira s. 1. The newly discovered Eriotheca + Pachira clade has a probable synapomorphy of striate seeds. In addition, two other moderately supported clades emerged within the core Bombacoideae: Pseudobombax + Ceiba s. 1. and Bombax + Spirotheca + Pachira quinata. These three clades, and the African Rhodognaphalon together constitute the major clade of core Bombacoideae, whereas Adansonia appears to be more closely related to Catostemma, Scleronema, and Cavanillesia. The phylogenetic results imply three independent migrations from the New to Old World and homoplasy in staminal morphology.

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Two new species of Gracilariopsis from the Indian Ocean are proposed-Gracilariopsis (Gp.) mclachlanii Buriyo, Bellorin et M. C. Oliveira sp. nov. from Tanzania and Gracilariopsis persica Bellorin, Sohrabipour et E. C. Oliveira sp. nov. from Iran-based on morphology and DNA sequence data (rbcL gene and SSU rDNA). Both species fit the typical features of Gracilariopsis: axes cylindrical throughout, freely and loosely ramified up to four orders, with an abrupt transition in cell size from medulla to cortex, cystocarps lacking tubular nutritive cells and superficial spermatangia. Nucleotide sequence comparisons of rbcL and SSU rDNA placed both species into the Gracilariopsis clade as distinct species from all the accepted species for this genus, forming a deeply divergent lineage together with some species from the Pacific. The new species are very difficult to distinguish on morphological grounds from other species of Gracilariopsis, stressing the importance of homologous molecular marker comparisons for the species recognition in this character-poor genus.

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The Hyacinth Macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus) is one of 14 endangered species in the family Psittacidae occurring in Brazil, with an estimated total population of 6,500 specimens. We used nuclear molecular markers (single locus minisatellites and microsatellites) and 472 bp of the mitochondrial DNA control region to characterize levels of genetic variability in this species and to assess the degree of gene flow among three nesting sites in Brazil (Pantanal do Abobral, Pantanal de Miranda and Piaui). The origin of five apprehended specimens was also investigated. The results suggest that, in comparison to other species of parrots, Hyacinth Macaws possess relatively lower genetic variation and that individuals from two different localities within the Pantanal (Abobral and Miranda) belong to a unique interbreeding population and are genetically distinct at nuclear level from birds from the state of Piaui. The analyses of the five apprehended birds suggest that the Pantanal is not the source of birds for illegal trade, but their precise origin could not be assigned. The low genetic variability detected in the Hyacinth Macaw does not seem to pose a threat to the survival of this species. Nevertheless, habitat destruction and nest poaching are the most important factors negatively affecting their populations in the wild. The observed genetic structure emphasizes the need of protection of Hyacinth Macaws from different regions in order to maintain the genetic diversity of this species.

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Members of Parasabella minuta Treadwell, 1941, subsequently moved to Perkinsiana, were collected during a survey of rocky intertidal polychaetes along the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Additional specimens, which are referred to two new species, were also found in similar habitats from the Bocas del Toro Archipelago, Caribbean Panama, and Oahu Island, Hawaii. A phylogenetic analysis of Sabellinae, including members of P. minuta and the two new species, provided justification for establishing a new generic hypothesis, Sabellomma gen. nov., for these individuals. Formal definitions are also provided for Sabellomma minuta gen. nov., comb. nov., S. collinae gen. nov., spec. nov., and S. harrisae gen. nov., spec. nov., along with descriptions of individuals to which these hypotheses apply. The generic name Aracia nom. nov., is provided to replace Kirkia Nogueira, Lopez and Rossi, 2004, pre-occupied by a mollusk.

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Phylogenetic analyses of chloroplast DNA sequences, morphology, and combined data have provided consistent support for many of the major branches within the angiosperm, clade Dipsacales. Here we use sequences from three mitochondrial loci to test the existing broad scale phylogeny and in an attempt to resolve several relationships that have remained uncertain. Parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analyses of a combined mitochondrial data set recover trees broadly consistent with previous studies, although resolution and support are lower than in the largest chloroplast analyses. Combining chloroplast and mitochondrial data results in a generally well-resolved and very strongly supported topology but the previously recognized problem areas remain. To investigate why these relationships have been difficult to resolve we conducted a series of experiments using different data partitions and heterogeneous substitution models. Usually more complex modeling schemes are favored regardless of the partitions recognized but model choice had little effect on topology or support values. In contrast there are consistent but weakly supported differences in the topologies recovered from coding and non-coding matrices. These conflicts directly correspond to relationships that were poorly resolved in analyses of the full combined chloroplast-mitochondrial data set. We suggest incongruent signal has contributed to our inability to confidently resolve these problem areas. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.